Date: January 9, 2012
Title: The Future of Astronomy
Podcaster: Chris Impey
Organization: University of Arizona
Description:
Description: It’s a Golden Age for astronomy, with discoveries weekly and powerful new telescopes working on the ground and in space. The universe is full of surprises, so research should proceed on a broad front and we should always expect the unexpected. Astronomers recently set their priorities for research topics and for new facilities for the next decade but budget problems at NASA and NSF mean that the wish list is too long to be fully funded. As a result, some hard choices have to be made. Nevertheless, the near future looks bright, and the cavalcade of discoveries should continue.
Bio: Chris Impey is a University Distinguished Professor and Deputy Head of the Department at the University of Arizona, in charge of academic programs. His research is on observational cosmology, gravitational lensing, and the evolution and structure of galaxies. He has over 160 refereed publications and 60 conference proceedings, and his work has been supported by $20 million in grants from NASA and the NSF. As a professor, he has won eleven teaching awards. Impey is a past Vice President of the American Astronomical Society, and is a Fellow of the American Academy for the Advancement of Science.
Sponsors: This episode of “365 Days of Astronomy” has been brought to you by — NO ONE. Please considering sponsoring a day or two so we can continue to bring you daily ‘infotainment’ throughout the year. We sincerely appreciate any support you are willing to give. Thanks!
Transcript:
This is a podcast for 365 Days of Astronomy and I’m Chris Impey, Professor and Academic Head of Astronomy at the University of Arizona. Welcome!
What might the rest of the decade hold for astronomy? One of the pleasures of astronomy is that fact that it’s so unpredictable. Without dissing my theory colleagues, I’d say that very few of the discoveries of the past fifty years have been predicted. The universe seem to take pleasure in surprising us, hitting us in the head with phenomena we never anticipated and then must scramble to understand. We make the best progress by expanding observational capabilities and opening up new windows on nature.
We’re in a Golden Age, with more than a dozen 8m-class telescopes and behemoths of 20-30 meters planned, three of NASA’s Great Observatories still in operation, and daily discoveries driven by technical innovation in detectors and galloping advances in computational power. Professional astronomers are having a lot of fun right now.
Let me give you two examples of phenomenal progress.
Ten years ago, there were 60 extrasolar planets known, and the smallest was five times the mass of Neptune. Now there are over 700, with several thousand more waiting in the wings for confirmation from the Kepler satellite. Earth clones in habitable zones are within our grasp. Within this decade we might just see the first detection of life beyond Earth by the presence of biomarkers in the atmosphere of a distant exoplanet.
Ten years ago, LIGO had been constructed and had just completed its engineering phase. LIGO is a pair of laser interferometer gravity wave detectors located in Hanford, Washington and Livingston, Louisiana. LIGO hopes to detect ripples in space-time by looking for distortions of one part in a thousand billion billion; it’s the most accurate scientific experiment ever attempted. Sometime in 2014, the advanced version of LIGO will start operation and we could see weekly reports of black holes colliding and other types of gravity cataclysm. For the first time in the history of astronomy, we’ll be able to see the universe with gravity “eyes.”
It seems like astronomers should be like kids in a candy store, grabbing whatever ever seems colorful and tasty. After all, astronomy is a classic discovery-based science so we should be driven purely by curiosity and physical intuition. And unlike high energy physics, where progress depends on a few vast, and vastly expensive, particle accelerators, astronomy still has an entrepreneurial flavor. We work alone or in small teams and spend our nights on remote mountaintops bathed in the tranquil beauty of the night sky. Every astronomer can dream that a discovery is just around the corner.
Unfortunately, candy store metaphor includes a dose of reality. Astronomers have eyes that are bigger than their stomachs, and they can’t always afford the nice candy.
In a research landscape with infinite potential but finite resources, hard choices must be made. Since the 1960’s, astronomers have gathered every ten years to set their research goals for the upcoming decade. These reports, called Decadal Surveys, are commissioned by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, so the priorities carry the imprimatur of the nation’s august scientific organization. The most recent decadal survey was released a year ago. It’s called New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics.
Decadal surveys take two years to compile, they involve hundreds of astronomers, and the recommendations are backed by several hundred white papers on a wide range of research topics. I was involved in the last one as Chair of the panel on Education and Public Outreach and was amazed at the amount of work invested in the report.
What did the Decadal Survey recommend? First, the report identified three broad science objectives as the most exciting ways forward in the next decade.
One is “Cosmic Dawn,” the exploration of the first half billion years of cosmic history. Questions here are: How and when did the first galaxies and supermassive black holes form, and what’s the relationship between dark and luminous matter? The second is “New Worlds,” the study of extrasolar planets. Key questions are: How diverse are exoplanet systems and can we identify the telltale signs of life on an exoplanet? The third topic is “Physics of the Universe,” an arena where lab physics can be applied all the way back to the big bang. Important questions include: Why is the universe accelerating, what is dark matter, did cosmic inflation actually happen, and how can we test the general theory of relativity in new ways?
The report then identifies the new capabilities needed to answer these questions. Top of the list for space facilities is a wide field infrared survey telescope with the acronym WFIRST. At first sight, WFIRST is surprisingly modest, just a 1.5-meter telescope, smaller than the aging Hubble Space Telescope. But its state-of-the-art infrared detectors give it a light grasp and power of penetration exceeding all existing telescopes. At the top of the list for ground-based facilities is the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, or LSST, an 8.4-meter telescope to be located in Chile that surveys half the sky to Hubble depth every four days, generating a prodigious 20 terrabytes of data every night. LSST will do celestial cinematography, looking for anything that goes “bump” in the night.
The wish list also includes small, nimble space missions in NASA’s Explorer class, a space-based version of LIGO, a new giant segmented mirror telescope at least 20 meters in aperture, and technology development that’s needed to test cosmic inflation and characterize extrasolar planets.
It all sounds great. But there are two flies in the ointment. Actually, they’re more than flies; they’re more like big ugly beetles gumming up the works.
Ground-based optical astronomy has always had private funding—witness the philanthropy of Keck and Carnegie that led to several of the world’s largest telescopes. But in general, astronomy depends on federal funding through NASA and the NSF. So astronomer’s dreams depend on how those agencies fare in a tough economic climate. The Decadal Survey assumed either modest growth of those budgets, or funding that kept pace with inflation. This now looks far too optimistic. It’s far more likely that astronomy funding from the government will be flat or declining in the next few years. Pure science is unlikely to be smiled on by legislators who are worried about deficits and debt.
So the first problem is simple: the kid in the candy store doesn’t have enough money to buy the expensive truffles and bonbons. WFIRST and LSST each carry multi-billion dollar price tags and they’re just the top items in the long wish list.
Also, the decks haven’t yet been cleared from the previous decadal survey. Hubble Space Telescope’s successor, the challenging James Webb Space Telescope, has a budget that’s ballooned to at least $8 billion. Congress has rapped NASA’s knuckles for project mismanagement and it nearly pulled the plug on the project as recently as three months ago. The NSF is committed to operating the newly built Atacama Large Millimeter Array for about $50 million a year, and has no slack to absorb the similar operating budget of the LSST, let alone its capital costs.
To continue, and perhaps belabor, the metaphor, the kid in the candy store hasn’t yet digested his previous treats yet he’s clamoring for more.
I’m involved in a difficult exercise to resolve this dilemma, serving on an NSF committee called the Portfolio Review. It’s likely that the only way to move forward is to give high priority to projects that serve multiple science goals, and close or mothball older facilities, something astronomers have historically been reluctant to do.
Another concern is what might be called the “health of the profession.” Astronomy is a small field, with ten times less professional practitioners than physics and thirty times less than chemistry. Yet young researchers face a difficult time getting employment in universities and research labs. Some worry we’re training too many astronomy Ph.D.s for the job market. The hardware is getting so expensive that there are fewer resources to invest in people. Getting the right balance will not be easy.
Despite the dark clouds, I’m an optimist. If astronomers can make some tough choices, and get an extra dose of private funding, they will be able to get the most important of their fancy new toys. It just may take a few years longer than planned.
I think the future is bright. Assuming we can get through the pesky Mayan prediction for the end of the world this year, astronomy is set to continue on a strong trajectory. Look out for us to pry a few more of the universe’s secrets loose in the coming years.
This has been Chris Impey for 365 Days of Astronomy, talking about the future of astronomy. Wishing you clear skies. Goodbye!
End of podcast:
365 Days of Astronomy
=====================
The 365 Days of Astronomy Podcast is produced by the Astrosphere New Media Association. Audio post-production by Preston Gibson. Bandwidth donated by libsyn.com and wizzard media. Web design by Clockwork Active Media Systems. You may reproduce and distribute this audio for non-commercial purposes. Please consider supporting the podcast with a few dollars (or Euros!). Visit us on the web at 365DaysOfAstronomy.org or email us at info@365DaysOfAstronomy.org. Until tomorrow…goodbye.