As a space news show, we are able to spend most of our time happily ignoring global politics, economics, and stories related to humans being other than scientific in how they act. We can’t always do that, however, and in today’s first story, we are reminded that rockets are really no different than missiles, and both can do harm far more easily than they can do good.

Early Monday morning, November 15, Russia launched a missile from the Plesetsk launch site on a trajectory that would intersect the orbit of the defunct Cosmos 1408 satellite in low-Earth orbit (LEO). This was a test of Russia’s anti-satellite launch capabilities, and it was successful. The 2200-kilogram former surveillance satellite was reduced to a cloud of debris with over 1,500 trackable pieces. This expanding cloud of shrapnel intersects the orbits of both the International Space Station (ISS) and China’s Tiangong space station. While it is unknown what actions may have occurred on the Chinese space station, the U.S. and Russian astronauts took shelter in the Soyuz and Dragon capsules, which are more robust than the typical space station module.

NASA administrator Bob Nelson is quoted as saying he believed the Russian Space Agency “didn’t know anything about this”, and per the New York Times, “had any of those known about it, they should’ve been raising Cain because of the threats to the astronauts and cosmonauts on the space station.”

As of Tuesday morning, the astronauts had returned to the ISS from the capsules but were continuing to keep doors between capsules closed to reduce the possibility of a collision causing complete loss of the station. The ISS is passing through the debris cloud roughly once an hour.

In addition to creating a direct threat to the lives of astronauts on the ISS and Tiangong, this debris is also going to endanger all the other missions orbiting in LEO, with Starlink satellites included in the mix. This is perhaps the definition of a hot mess in orbit, and satellite operators around the world are watching as tracking solutions come in.

This is just the latest in a steady stream of nations showing they have the capability to destroy satellites. In 2007, China destroyed a 750-kg weather satellite and created more than 3,000 detectable pieces of debris. In 2008, the U.S. destroyed a defunct National Reconnaissance Office satellite, creating 400 pieces of trackable debris, and India performed a similar scale test in 2019.

It is difficult for the U.S. to condemn another nation for doing something we have already done, but the U.S. has condemned Russia’s actions.

The timing of this particular test is troubling. The number of satellites in orbit has vastly changed since the U.S. and China tests in the 20-aughts. This new test is taking place with vast numbers of Starlinks, OneWeb, and other satellite internet constellations in orbits intersecting with the debris. While this particular incident is unlikely to trigger a chain reaction of collisions – an effect named the Kessler Syndrome – a great deal of orbital maneuvering is going to be needed to avoid collisions, and that will use up fuel and shorten the life expectancy of spacecraft. 

Political watchers also point out that this test occurred at the same time that Russia has built up troops on their border with Ukraine. As a Gen-X kid who read far too much Tom Clancy, I have to admit this scares the pants off me. Hopefully, this was just a flex, and the worst that will happen in the coming days and years is a shortened life for some of those easy to replace Starlinks.

More Information

Russian anti-satellite missile test draws condemnation (BBC)