Researchers studying the eruption history of volcanic islands, like Santorini, have found that as ocean levels rise – which they are doing – they put more weight on the mantle and decrease the likelihood of volcanic eruptions. This is good news for folks living in the ocean in the shadow of a smoky mountain. 

This was a known effect to a certain degree: with Icelandic volcanoes, it was found that the melting of snow sheets allowed volcanoes to more readily erupt. This could put us in an interesting position where we see more islands get quieter and glacial areas more active.

While I see this result as generally a win for humans on volcanic islands, it is also potentially a loss for the world. Massive eruptions, like Mt. Pinatubo in 1992, can cool our global temperature, if only temporarily. Still, these are early days for this discovery, and we have simplified things massively. This is a small effect, and it is unlikely that rising oceans will turn off any volcanoes. It just may slow things down. This is definitely a result we’ll be following.

More Information

Oxford Brookes University press release

“Eruptive activity of the Santorini Volcano controlled by sea-level rise and fall,” Chris Satow et al., 2021 August 2, Nature Geoscience