It looks like this year will be another above-normal year for hurricane season. But it won’t be as bad as last year, so that’s a good thing, right?

NOAA released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, and they’re predicting 13-20 named tropical storms. We typically have fourteen. Additionally, the number of major hurricanes is likely to be up this season, with three to five predicted. Normally, we have three. So there is a chance that the total season could be close to normal, but it’s on the low end of the predictions.

I should note that climate change has so far not been found to be responsible for the increase in the number of hurricanes; however, there is evidence that the increasing intensity of the storms is a result of that climate change.  There’s a particular climate fluctuation that has been in a warm phase since 1995. Add in the possibility of warmer water in the Pacific, and we could be in for quite the hurricane season.

As a reminder, last year broke records for the number of named storms. There were thirty. This means the naming scheme in the Atlantic had to use the Greek alphabet. I only remember seeing that happen one other time, and that was a hurricane season that went into the next year. Typically, the season runs from June to November. December and January named storms are rare.

So to all our followers and fans in the region of the southeast United States, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean, please be prepared. Get your disaster plans in place, check on your batteries, have a plan to evacuate and ways to secure your home. We want you all to be safe over the coming months.

More Information

NOAA press release

Your Summer Outlook: Cloudy with an Above-Normal Chance of Hurricanes (Eos)

“Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades,” James P. Kossin, Kenneth R. Knapp, Timothy L. Olander, and Christopher S. Velden, 2020 June 2, PNAS