2012 is giving me a Headache

[Hornblower]

With one eye on the moderators here, may I ask what your journey is. To walk the
walk, or talk the talk.
Nokton

Part of my journey is doing the boring warmup exercises on my horn which require about 1% of my brain power, but are necessary to get my lips and gut muscles in shape for making real music. I pass the time by reading such things as Year 2012 drivel and not taking it too seriously. When I am warmed up I turn off the computer and start a real rehearsal.

[nokton]

Some how this fictional quote seems the appropriate response

But seriously Nokton... I hope you are not serious.

Swift, a big solar flare would wipe out all our satellites, and fry our computers.
Please do not tell me it cannot happen. A minor solar flare fried the grid in Canada a
few years ago. Our sun can produce a super massive flare at anytime.
All our infrastructure is ground based, we would have 8 minuites warning. The fastest
response time to shut down the relay buffer stations is 16 minutes, they would be
overloaded and trashed, and we would have no power. We been lucky, so far.
Nokton

[RobDegraves]

The 2012 prophesy is based on a misunderstanding of the significance of the Mayan long count calendar. No expert on Mayan history that I have ever read of attributes any world ending significance to 2012 based on the calendar. Maybe a good day to have a huge party if you were Mayan but nothing else.

However, the best response I would give to people who suggest that the Mayans predicted an apocalypse in 2012 is...

If you really believe that the Mayans had it right on, the best that we could do is to round up a large number of people, march them up a big pyramid and tear out their hearts to offer it to the Gods in order to stave off the disaster. I suggest we start with the people who keep going on about the 2012 disaster myth.

[Swift]

If you really believe that the Mayans had it right on, the best that we could do is to round up a large number of people, march them up a big pyramid and tear out their hearts to offer it to the Gods in order to stave off the disaster. I suggest we start with the people who keep going on about the 2012 disaster myth.

Brilliant! It probably is unnecessary, but I seems worthwhile to do, if only as a precaution. I mean you can't be too careful if the fate of the world is involved.

[Swift]

Swift, a big solar flare would wipe out all our satellites, and fry our computers.
Please do not tell me it cannot happen. A minor solar flare fried the grid in Canada a
few years ago. Our sun can produce a super massive flare at anytime.
All our infrastructure is ground based, we would have 8 minuites warning. The fastest
response time to shut down the relay buffer stations is 16 minutes, they would be
overloaded and trashed, and we would have no power. We been lucky, so far.
Nokton

OK, that's true. And any of the other things you mentioned: volcanos, earthquakes, asteroid strikes could happen. And there is absolutely no evidence to suggest they are more or less likely to happen in 2012, and there is no evidence to suggest that Nostradamus or the Mayans or my Aunt Rose predicted any of them.

[KaiYeves]

If you really believe that the Mayans had it right on, the best that we could do is to round up a large number of people, march them up a big pyramid and tear out their hearts to offer it to the Gods in order to stave off the disaster. I suggest we start with the people who keep going on about the 2012 disaster myth.

My thoughts exactly.

[Romanus]

<<Yeah, the 2012 theories will be proven wrong, but then people will just start making up doomsday theories with a new date. >>

No, you can never have too many doomsdays...

[sigh]

[nokton]

OK, that's true. And any of the other things you mentioned: volcanos, earthquakes, asteroid strikes could happen. And there is absolutely no evidence to suggest they are more or less likely to happen in 2012, and there is no evidence to suggest that Nostradamus or the Mayans or my Aunt Rose predicted any of them.

Your Aunt Rose, respect. To deny a possibility is to deny it's existance.
I never suggested any predictions from the Mayan calender, nor Nostrademus.
Just aware of the time line between the two.
Nokton

[R.A.F.]

I never suggested any predictions from the Mayan calender, nor Nostrademus.
Just aware of the time line between the two.

Just what does "aware of the time line" mean?

[Gillianren]

Well, they're hundreds of years apart and have nothing to do with one another, so there's that. Oh, and people who are ignorant believe that Nostradamus talked about the same year in which the Mayan calendar rolls over, so there's that, too.

[geonuc]

OK, that's true.

Well, not all of it. The Canadian power grid was certainly not 'fried' by a solar flare. Power surges caused relays to trip and bring the grid down, but it's not like the transmission lines were reduced to slag.

[Rue]

The Canadian power grid

Specifically Quebec.

The insulating nature of the Canadian Shield igneous rock directed the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to the power lines.

According to Wiki.

[shaka37]

So, as a matter of full disclosure, I don't believe any of this 2012 nonsense. But I am posting this only because I happened to get this e-mailed to me at my place of work (I am a journalist). I'm going to take my journalist hat off for a moment and I won't print the name or the Web site because I don't want to lend any credence to it, but the e-mail came from someone who claims to be a physicist. For all I know, he's on this site. I just want to know what you all think of this information:

"2012 Overview
December 21 is not the critical event in 2012.
June 4±2 is much more stressful.
Winter Solstice

On Dec 21, the Sun is conjunct a line which was defined by the Astronomical Union in 1958 to be the Galactic Equator.

This line was in the approximate middle of the Milky Galaxy as it was then known. Now more sensitive detectors using infrared and x-rays have found the Galactic Center, thought to be a be a super dense entity called a black hole, at a point about 5° off the previously defined Galactic Equator. The Sun does not conjunct it exactly and never will in many thousands of years. The December 21 event is similar to every winter solstice. The Sun, as seen from Earth, appears close to, but not exactly aligned with the central black hole. This has been the case every year for over two decades, and will continue to be close for more than two decades after Dec. 21, although it becomes a slight minimum in 2012. It’s conjunction with the Galactic Center is not exact although it has been close for many years every winter solstice, or within a day or two of it.

Venus Transit

On June 4, 2012 though, there is a real, solid, tangible event. The planet Venus transits, or goes exactly across the disk of the Sun, as seen from Earth, a rather rare event. There is a full Moon, a partial eclipse, and the Moon is perigee (closest to earth) for the month!!! These factors may greatly increase any stresses on Earth’s crust, perhaps increasing Earthquake and volcanic activity. If this happens in 2010, it will probably happen again in 2012 with increased strength."

Thoughts?

[Swift]

Its more nonsense.

The next transit of Vensus actually starts 5 June 22:09 UTC (not 4 June). The idea that this will cause any sort of measureble increase in stress on the Earth's crust is absurb. The last one was 8 June 2004, and if I'm not mistaken, the Earth wasn't destroyed. And I don't know what they think is going to happen in 2010, it certainly won't be a surprise Venus transit, since even wikipedia manages to list all of them out to 2498.

[Spoons]

The idea that this will cause any sort of measureble increase in stress on the Earth's crust is absurb

Not only that, it's also absurd. And somewhat ridiculous.

It's hard to really appreciate the distances over which gravity is acting in these cases, but they are such huge distances that it seems crazy to expect it to do anything significant.

I know the idea is that three different things are acting on Earth at the same time, but to create any sort of disturbance - well, how much measurable tidal effect does Venus ever have, even, say, at the date Swift mentioned above of the last Venus transit? If it isn't causing tidal waves then is it likely to play havoc with the Earth's crust?

[shaka37]

It's hard to really appreciate the distances over which gravity is acting in these cases, but they are such huge distances that it seems crazy to expect it to do anything significant.

Well, I'm not an astronomer or physicist ... I'm not even an aficionado or buff, but I think I understand enough to know that while gravity of planets does an an effect on other planets, the distances here are barely fathomable, and so I can't see the effect causing Yellowstone to explode in a fury of volcanic activity (yet another end-of-the-world scenario I've read about).

[shaka37]

I did some research on the history of the 2012 apocalypse and found that it was started when the History Channel made a documentary about it.

Why the History Channel should do a program speculating about a purported future catastrophe? It is irresponsible and alarmist.

I have a major hate on for the History Channel. What is historical about and apocalypse is beyond me.

[Van Rijn]

I know the idea is that three different things are acting on Earth at the same time, but to create any sort of disturbance - well, how much measurable tidal effect does Venus ever have, even, say, at the date Swift mentioned above of the last Venus transit? If it isn't causing tidal waves then is it likely to play havoc with the Earth's crust?

This seems to be another take on the old "planetary alignment" theme. Here are a couple of the BA's pages on earlier alignment claims:

http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/venus_flood.html

http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html

Quoting from the first page linked above:

After all, during a transit, Venus has to be as close to the Earth as possible, since it's between us and the Sun. In fact, this is when Venus is closest, getting about 40 million kilometers (25 million miles) from the Earth. However, that's still a long way off, and its gravity is very weak. Its gravity is only 0.006 times that of the Moon's, and its tides are only 0.00005 of the Moon at that distance (I calculated this as part of my Planetary Alignment page). This is incredibly small. Remember too, the gravity from the Moon changes because the Moon orbits the Earth in an ellipse. Sometimes it is closer, and sometimes farther. The Moon's gravity changes by about 25% every two weeks! So adding Venus to that is a tiny effect, and cannot cause any real, measurable changes here on Earth.

[mugaliens]

Why be original? Try the Hollywood Method (tm)...

I'm glad you trademarked that, Fazor, as the previous methods of birth control haven't worked very well.

I wish you success!

Swift, a big solar flare would wipe out all our satellites, and fry our computers.

Not mine. It's wearing it's tin foil hat, like a good little laptop.

Please do not tell me it cannot happen. A minor solar flare fried the grid in Canada a
few years ago.

That was Canada. What did it do to the US grid?

By the way, the grid is very large, and as such is much more susceptible to LF EMPs than people realize (think secondary windings on a transformer...)

Our sun can produce a super massive flare at anytime.

Yes, it can.

All our infrastructure is ground based, we would have 8 minuites warning.

Actully, 15 minutes. But to do what?

The fastest
response time to shut down the relay buffer stations is 16 minutes, they would be
overloaded and trashed, and we would have no power. We been lucky, so far.
Nokton

Google: "No results found for "relay buffer station"" and "No results found for "buffer relay station"."

And: "A simple scheme of sunspot classification due to McIntosh is commonly used as a starting point for flare prediction. Predictions are usually stated in terms of probabilities for occurrence of flares above M or X GOES class with 24 or 48 hours." - Wikipedia

You're correct in that once detected, we've only about 8 minutes. However, high-energy flares can be predicted at least a day in advance based on sunspot acitivity.

Nokton, after the generating station, the voltage is stepped up by transformers to 765, 500, 345, 230, and 138kV. Nearing the customers, it's stepped down to various voltages, depending on customer requirements, ranging from 120V to 69kV.

Now, there are relay stations... Not exactly set up for power distribution, though.

[gatorain]

Add this thread to the 2012's links

Re: 2012: A list of threads and articles discussing 2012

1. 2003 no, 2012 si
2. 2012
3. End of Mayan Calendar
4. Pole shift / Planetary alignment 2012?
5. 2012 alignment question
6. about the Mayan 2012 item
7. 2012 Debunking?
8. Possible asteroid impact in 2012?
9. 2012 asteroid?
10. We don't have to worry about 2012!
11. More on 2012 from India Daily
12. 2012 Completion of conspiracy?
13. Here's what's REALLY going to happen in 2012...
14. crop circles, Planet X and 2012
15. Planet X, crop circles and 2012 cataclysma
16. According to the Mayans, what will happen on 23rd Dec. 2012?
17. More 2012 Nonsense
18. NEO 2012?
19. Dangerous NEO in 2012?
20. Christmas 2012
21. 2012 mayan calender end of world
22. Regarding the supposed polar shift/new ice age in 2012
23. New 2012 threat?
24. 2012 look at this thing on the sun
25. Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012
26. Pole shift idea origins
27. Dec 20 2012
28. 2012 Stuff
29. No reply previous question
30. Horizon Project-New End of World Scare?
31. Date: December 21st 2012
32. Earth passing thru Galactic center in 2012 - didn't that already happen?
33. 2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)
34. So what will we see in 2012?
35. Galactic Tsunami?
36. Plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy?
37. Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012
38. 2012?
39. Any truth to this?
40. How can the sun be aligned with Galactic centre?
41. the whole 2012 poles flip nonsense
42. Planet X Official Advertisement
43. What year are we in
44. Quick question about the sun
45. Galactic Alignment
46. Books of 2012! -
47. 2007 = 2012
48. Return of Planet X By Rand
49. Don Alejandro - Mayan Elder.
50. Toutatis 4179: 2012?
51. Galactic Alignment in 2012 ?
52. Solar Storms
53. A real prediction!
54. NIBURU - Brown Dwarf, The DESTROYER
55. 2012 Galactic Alignment
56. Not 2012 again! But I cant help it~
57. New evidence for 2012 TEOTWAWKI!!!
58. this may be a silly question but...
59. Just to know if this is true
60. Just Wondering...
61. Planet X/Nibiru, is it real?
62. Youv heard this a million times.
63. Nibaru or Planet X
64. Mayan calendar
65. 2012 Article?
66. can i say something please on planet x
67. Nibiru
68. The growing earth.... :P
69. Our Solar System's Eclipse of the Galactic Plane on Dec 21, 2012?
70. Something scaring the hell out of me....
71. It's Only the end of the World AGAIN!!! (Woo Woo Alert)
72. 2021 Doomsday
73. is it just me or is the milky way brighter..?
74. Polar Shift in 2012?
75. I would like to ask about Nubiru stuff...
76. Bit behind the times, my appologies...
77. the "pole shift thing"
78. All the Truth about 2012
79. Confused about 2012 (yes, another one!)
80. Another paranoia mind due to 2012
81. novelty theory
82. Possibility of Pole Shift
83. 2012 Vectors
84. Nibiru Question
85. Odd things floating on google sky
86. 2012 end of the world?
87. 2012 and Solar Storms?
88. Nibiru
89. 2012 is giving me a Headache

[yongkykun]

Swift, a big solar flare would wipe out all our satellites, and fry our computers.
Please do not tell me it cannot happen. A minor solar flare fried the grid in Canada a
few years ago. Our sun can produce a super massive flare at anytime.
All our infrastructure is ground based, we would have 8 minuites warning. The fastest
response time to shut down the relay buffer stations is 16 minutes, they would be
overloaded and trashed, and we would have no power. We been lucky, so far.
Nokton

Sounds like you're quoting from that book Apocalypse 2012. But it's a valid concern considering that it happened during soalr minimum (minor), a cycle that will end next year. Now if something like that can happen during solar minor, what happens on solar major (maximum)? Does anyone have any current data about this?

[Tenshu]

^ last i heard about the whole solar maximum it got pushed back to 2013 and won't be as bad as it was origionally intended to be so i don't think we'll have to worry about that.

as a side note, i don't know if i belong here...my brain's mentallity is nothing compared to others here.

[gzhpcu]

And now Billy Meier gets on the 2012 bandwagon...
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009UF...web2875624.htm

Swiss man says that scientists and corporations deny the actual extent and magnitude of coming environmental destruction; has documented, decades long record of impeccable prophetic accuracy; goes far beyond any information associated with Mayan Calendar for 2012

And, oh yes, the article goes on to say that his photos of "wedding cake" ufos are authentic too...

[yongkykun]

^ last i heard about the whole solar maximum it got pushed back to 2013 and won't be as bad as it was origionally intended to be so i don't think we'll have to worry about that.

as a side note, i don't know if i belong here...my brain's mentallity is nothing compared to others here.

I knew it! Well, as far as I'm concerned, nothing's going to happen in 2012 that would push mankind to extinction. I'm much more concerned about the economy of the world and conspiracy theories regarding NWO rather than the already-debunked-doomsday-theory-that-seemingly-goes-on-and-on such as this 2012 thing.

[parallaxicality]

This is not just about the Mayan calender, but much more.

Yes, free association is fairly rampant when it comes to this craze.

From Nostrademus,

Nostradamus. And the closest thing he had to an apocalyptic date was July, 1999, when "from the skies will come the great king of terror". He also said the world would end in 3797.

to present day understanding. That we are heading for destruction as a race.

Most present day understanding about our doom concerns what will happen in the year 2112, not 2012. Global warming won't reach apocalypse level until at least a century from now. And anyway, there's no reason to assume that we won't be able to find some way to live with it by then.

So much farcical compacency that denies history puts our head in the sand.

What history?

The infastucture we all rely on, that is computers, would be fried in the event of a massive solar flare,

Yes, that is an actual threat. But it is one we are aware of and will have at least a few days' warning of, thanks to the armada of solar satellites we have at our Legrange points, which, by the way, we put there precisely because we were afraid of this happening So no, we haven't been ignoring history in that regard.

the same scenario even worse if we are subject to a gamma ray burst from a nearby supernova.

A gamma ray burst in our galaxy is an exceptionally rare event. They may not even happen in our galaxy any more. And for them to be any threat to us, the star would have to be facing the Earth pole-on, which makes the chances of a "gamma-ray apocalypse" even more unlikely. There are no stars within a hundred light years capable of generating even a modest supernova. The closest is Betelgeuse, which is 640 light years away, and not facing us pole-on. When it goes, it'll give us a hell of a good show, but it won't hurt us.

Then there is the threat of a massive volcano eruption, Yellowstone is long past it's time cycle. 75 K years ago, Toba, a massive volvano, almost wiped out mankind, and compromised the genetic pool of human evolution.

Yellowstone has an "error range" in its eruptions of tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. There is simply no way to claim if or when it will blow, or indeed it will ever blow again. Because no human being has ever seen a Yellowstone-level eruption, there are no known signs to look for, and even if there were, there's jack we could do about it anyway. If it happens, it happens.

Oh I almost forgot, an asteroid strike that we are still unprepared for, and have not the resourses to deal with.

We're more prepared than not. Pan-Starrs is coming online, which should create a database of all Near-Earth asteroids and their orbits, and thus give us an idea of the threat levels. Comet collisions are harder to deal with, but they are incredibly rare in our part of the Solar System, and, given that comets have such long orbits, we would probably have some time to prepare before the actual hit.

Perhaps 2012 not so much nonesense after all.

What? At the start of your comment, you said,

This is not just about the Mayan calender,

but if it wasn't for the Mayan calendar, no one would be interested in the 2012 date. It would hold no more interest than any other leap year. No one would be expecting the world to end then. So if it's not about the Mayan calendar, why do you assume it is so important?

[TheHalcyonYear]

I think we should just wait. We will find out here in a couple of years or so.

[Orion's Fan]

I'm a very linear person. I'm also an astronomy (in addition to chemistry/physics) teacher. After doing much reading/viewing/researching on the whole 2012 "catastrophy" I come away a little flabbergasted at "catch all" characteristic of the event. It's such a mismatch of events/people/events that I can't even find a way to present the "debunking" of it as a unit to my astronomy class. We just seem to randomly debunk a section of it at a time. This annoys me very much!

[Romanus]

RE OP:
I think about half my coworkers believe in this nonsense. I think we're in for the biggest bubble since Y2K--and worse for having zero basis in actual science.

2013, get here already, so they can move the goalposts to 20xx or whatever...

[KaiYeves]

I'm a very linear person. I'm also an astronomy (in addition to chemistry/physics) teacher. After doing much reading/viewing/researching on the whole 2012 "catastrophy" I come away a little flabbergasted at "catch all" characteristic of the event. It's such a mismatch of events/people/events that I can't even find a way to present the "debunking" of it as a unit to my astronomy class. We just seem to randomly debunk a section of it at a time. This annoys me very much!

You might want to start with Sky and Telescope's article.

[TheHalcyonYear]

I figure there's no real need to address the 2012 thing. December 31, 2012 will come and go just as December 31, 1999, came an went. We'll all get up the next morning on New Years day and nurse hangovers, have eggs benedict for breakfast, and a day or two later head back to work.

Just as 2012 became an issue after we survived Y2K, there will be another end-of-the-world issue within days of surviving all of 2012 intact. The end of the world has been just around the corner for someone for the last 5000 years and probably before that. One may be assured that this isn't going to end with 2012 and that others will follow. Best way to deal with it is to wake up on New Years, and start another year.

Nothing convinced Y2K believers more than New Years Day 2000 and New Years Day 2001.