From summer of 2009 I am thinking about UFOs and Vn probes and came to merely the same conclusions as you. I wrote them in my article "UFO as global risk" which I am now translating from Russian into English.
The main ideas is:
1. The best way to explore universe is Vp.
2. This probes should consist of nanobots
3. Ufo could be clouds of such nanobots - it explain many strange features.
4. The senders of Vp must be afreid that they will revolt
5. So they must limited their AI - to be sure that it can't self develop
6 The best way to limit AI is to create it in such a way that can''t be optimised. So it must use strange method of optimization, like genetic algoritms.
7 This mean that behaivor of UFO must be absurd and it is imposible to make contact this them. And we actually see that UFO are absurd in their behaivior.
8. Observer selection mean that we can only see such a world, where poloce Vp are not too much agressive. I.e. they don''t destroy early life and intelligence.
9. We are approaching the limit, where police probes will attack us. It may be creating of AI, or our own nanotechnology, or large space missle. It explain interest from UFOs to missles sites.
10. Extraterrestial nanobots could be present even in this room or in my body. We should search for dead nanobot or something like Kerala red rain.