Russia After Russians

[Maha Vailo]

OK, I've noticed there have been too many shows on what the world would be like without us. I don't really like these shows, for several reasons: 1) it's way too gloomy, 2) human extinction would not leave things so nice and tidy, and 3) why take an entire hour to describe what could be summarized in 5 minutes?

What I would find far more interesting is what would happen to a part of the world where only a portion of the people disappeared, e. g. America without white people, or Russia without Russians. It is the latter scenario that I'm trying to flesh out for a modern-era role-playing campaign.

Without getting political, what impact would the disapperance of the Russians within the borders of Russia have on a local and global scale? I'm assuming the Cossacks are, errrm, "left behind".

Remember, there are many different ethnic groups in Russia besides the Russians. This Wikipedia article should give you a good overview and perhaps something to work with.

- Maha Vailo

[PraedSt]

You mean just the people? Or their farms, buildings, machines, too?

[Maha Vailo]

Just the Russian people, similar to, but not the same as Life After People. All the infrastructure stays. The Cossacks, Tatars, Chechens, etc. are left behind, trying to make sense of it all.

- Maha Vailo

[PraedSt]

I think you'd have a land grab then Maha. And the places where people left from would suffer economic disruption. (Temporarily).

As for Russian lands, I presume it would be lawless for a while- until enough people had moved and enough assets had been grabbed. Might is right.

Interesting idea for a campaign.

[novaderrik]

i'm pretty sure all the people that were left would be wondering exactly what kind of a selective genocide just took place..
what about people of mixed races?

[Ara Pacis]

I like those shows. There were two mini-series about that last year and now a long series. I sometimes disagree with them, but it's interesting to see what would happen and how tenuous our existence is. Moreover, it reveals some potential problems that could happen relatively rapidly in the event of a breakdown in services even if people didn't disappear. I'm thinking of the NY subway flooding and the nuclear plant cooling pools drying up and spreading radioactive material across the countryside. Oddly enough, they mention that devestating calamity and then move on to some other aspect of animal life forgetting that they would likely be wiped out by the radiation they mentioned in another episode. In other words, they look at some aspects individually and with tunnel vision and ignore the wider world.

As for what would happen to those "left behind" if Group X suddenly disappeared, you might want to examine christian eschatological writings on the subject, such as the Left Behind series of books. Howeover, I don't think we can discuss it here.

[Maha Vailo]

I like those shows. There were two mini-series about that last year and now a long series. I sometimes disagree with them, but it's interesting to see what would happen and how tenuous our existence is. Moreover, it reveals some potential problems that could happen relatively rapidly in the event of a breakdown in services even if people didn't disappear. I'm thinking of the NY subway flooding and the nuclear plant cooling pools drying up and spreading radioactive material across the countryside. Oddly enough, they mention that devestating calamity and then move on to some other aspect of animal life forgetting that they would likely be wiped out by the radiation they mentioned in another episode. In other words, they look at some aspects individually and with tunnel vision and ignore the wider world.

The two aren't necessarily incompatible; wildlife has flourished in the shadow of the Chernobyl reactor. In fact, IIRC the area around Chernobyl has been declared a wildlife preserve.

As for what would happen to those "left behind" if Group X suddenly disappeared, you might want to examine christian eschatological writings on the subject, such as the Left Behind series of books. Howeover, I don't think we can discuss it here.

I've read a blog that dissects the claims in those books, and it's generally thought to be a very poor description of what would happen in real life. Unfortunately, I don't know where I could find a better one.

- Maha Vailo

[SeanF]

Vacation land for lawyers in love?

[Maha Vailo]

I think you'd have a land grab then Maha. And the places where people left from would suffer economic disruption. (Temporarily).

As for Russian lands, I presume it would be lawless for a while- until enough people had moved and enough assets had been grabbed. Might is right.

Interesting idea for a campaign.

So what you're saying is it would essentially become the Wild West with AK-47's. Now there's a scary thought.

- Maha Vailo

[Ara Pacis]

So what you're saying is it would essentially become the Wild West with AK-47's. Now there's a scary thought.

- Maha Vailo

You say that like it's not already a reality... Somalia, Afghanistan, and parts of Pakistan come to mind.

I haven't read the "Left Behinbd" series, but I don't know that it would be a good description of what would happen since there are special actors left behind whereas "Russia without Russians" may not posit a specific leader arising among the cossacks or something similar.

[GeorgeLeRoyTirebiter]

I haven't read the "Left Behinbd" series, but I don't know that it would be a good description of what would happen...

It's not. By any metric you wish to measure (plot, characterization, style, plausibility, theology, etc.) those books are just terrible. I don't have the link, but I remember reading a blog where someone went page-by-page through them, pointing out just how bad they are (or maybe it was just the first book).

[KaiYeves]

Those shows scare me, too.

Small, unrelated question: In Life After People, it was stated that the ISS, if abandoned in place, would deorbit in 3 years. In a collaborative story I was working on on another site, there was a scenario where all of the cooperating agencies were forced to evacuate the station by a certain date. If given several months warning, could they do a reboost or two to expand that timetable and if so, by how much?

[Delvo]

China has an immense population, economy, and military power. Russia would mostly get rolled over by a Chinese invasion. China would only need to declare the land to be its own and institute "go get some land" policies such as the USA had for its western lands before they were states. And the invasion would take a similar form to that one, too: not a heavy frontal assault by the army with weapons blazing and flags waving, but largely a matter of civilians just arriving in such overwhelming numbers the sparse established native population just gets buried under wave after wave of immigrant bodies, with only minimal military support needed to stabilize certain sites.

But the non-Russians in Russia have less of a disadvantage than North America's Indians did, in terms of both population density and level of technology. So the results wouldn't be quite so lopsided. Some parts of Russia might hold them off with an allied front of the remaining ethnicities if those were united enough, had solid access to the right resources, could get foreign support, and were in sufficiently supportable and defendable locations. However, foreign support would be limited because nobody wants to fight against China over great distances of land and the "invasion" itself would mostly not be considered violent enough or enough of a human rights issue to warrant it. It would mostly just look like a large wave of immigration.

[Maha Vailo]

You say that like it's not already a reality... Somalia, Afghanistan, and parts of Pakistan come to mind.

You know, I never realy thought of it that way. Still, .

I haven't read the "Left Behinbd" series, but I don't know that it would be a good description of what would happen since there are special actors left behind whereas "Russia without Russians" may not posit a specific leader arising among the cossacks or something similar.

I happen to have it bookmarked, and it's a very interesting read. The blogger's currently going through the second book now: slacktivist: Left Behind

As for a possible leader arising among, say, the Cossacks, why not the current Ataman of the Don Cossack Host? (Sorry, I can't seem to find his name right now.) Besides being the grand poobah of all Cossack-kind, he'd probably be the highest-ranking officer in what was left of the "Russian" army, since he holds the title of Marshal.

- Maha "left behind you" Vailo

[Maha Vailo]

China has an immense population, economy, and military power. Russia would mostly get rolled over by a Chinese invasion. China would only need to declare the land to be its own and institute "go get some land" policies such as the USA had for its western lands before they were states. And the invasion would take a similar form to that one, too: not a heavy frontal assault by the army with weapons blazing and flags waving, but largely a matter of civilians just arriving in such overwhelming numbers the sparse established native population just gets buried under wave after wave of immigrant bodies, with only minimal military support needed to stabilize certain sites.

But the non-Russians in Russia have less of a disadvantage than North America's Indians did, in terms of both population density and level of technology. So the results wouldn't be quite so lopsided. Some parts of Russia might hold them off with an allied front of the remaining ethnicities if those were united enough, had solid access to the right resources, could get foreign support, and were in sufficiently supportable and defendable locations. However, foreign support would be limited because nobody wants to fight against China over great distances of land and the "invasion" itself would mostly not be considered violent enough or enough of a human rights issue to warrant it. It would mostly just look like a large wave of immigration.

That's interesting, but how likely would this scenario be? For one thing, I think the UN would be against it. Is there a historical precedent you're basing this on?

- Maha Vailo

[Rue]

I thought of The Years of Rice and Salt when I read this thread, but I guess you are not talking about alternate history.

A small portion of ancient Korea extends into Russia, so there would probably be some land claims there.

[Ara Pacis]

China has an immense population, economy, and military power. Russia would mostly get rolled over by a Chinese invasion. China would only need to declare the land to be its own and institute "go get some land" policies such as the USA had for its western lands before they were states. And the invasion would take a similar form to that one, too: not a heavy frontal assault by the army with weapons blazing and flags waving, but largely a matter of civilians just arriving in such overwhelming numbers the sparse established native population just gets buried under wave after wave of immigrant bodies, with only minimal military support needed to stabilize certain sites.

But the non-Russians in Russia have less of a disadvantage than North America's Indians did, in terms of both population density and level of technology. So the results wouldn't be quite so lopsided. Some parts of Russia might hold them off with an allied front of the remaining ethnicities if those were united enough, had solid access to the right resources, could get foreign support, and were in sufficiently supportable and defendable locations. However, foreign support would be limited because nobody wants to fight against China over great distances of land and the "invasion" itself would mostly not be considered violent enough or enough of a human rights issue to warrant it. It would mostly just look like a large wave of immigration.

It might be a good way for China to reduce it's surplus population, but that depends on who China sends into Siberia. A lot of their population is based near the coasts and might not adapt well to the continental interior of Russia. The locals may not need to fight them off but instead may just ignore them, as they may simply fail to adapt and die.

[GeorgeLeRoyTirebiter]

It might be a good way for China to reduce it's surplus population, but that depends on who China sends into Siberia. A lot of their population is based near the coasts and might not adapt well to the continental interior of Russia. The locals may not need to fight them off but instead may just ignore them, as they may simply fail to adapt and die.

Not necessarily. Some critics claim that the true purpose of the Qingzang railway is to encourage emigration of Han Chinese to Tibet, thereby eroding Tibetan culture and homogenizing the region. For example, see Abraham Lustgarten's China's Great Train: Beijing's Drive West and the Campaign to Remake Tibet.

If Han Chinese can survive in Tibet, they can likely survive in Siberia.

[Maha Vailo]

Well, I could see the Chinese colonizing southern Siberia (which, if you read the link in the OP, some already have, but to escape the tyranny of their mother country, not as anything like an invasion), but invading Siberia is another matter. General Winter would screw them over the same way he screwed over the French and the Germans. And the Chinese would get the short end of the climatic stick.

Siberia gets way colder than Tibet.

- Maha Vailo

[PraedSt]

Forget Siberia and most of eastern Russia in general. The Russians have it now and it's still sparsely populated. Bad weather!

And Maha, "Wild West with AK47s" is only what I feel. Might not happen.

And also, I thought that would happen because of the infrastructure. If it's just plain land, you'd get less violence. Maybe more of a gentle migration over many years.

[J Chrysostom]

It might be a good way for China to reduce it's surplus population

How many of them are surplus?

Forget Siberia and most of eastern Russia in general. The Russians have it now and it's still sparsely populated. Bad weather!

That's my feeling. A lot of the people who live there now don't want to.

[Ara Pacis]

How many of them are surplus?

It's not for me to decide.

[Maha Vailo]

Would the parts of Russia that were once primiarily (say, 75%+) Russian start to have problems with decaying infrastructure a la Life After People?

I suppose colonization and maintenance would prove difficult until enough kids were born and grew up to compensate (say, 15 years or so). Would a temporary stepping up of the birth rate be in order?

- Maha Vailo

[filrabat]

Oh, Chinese would move into Siberia - with a big enough salary, although they'd have to learn to adapt to permafrost (with perhaps Japan getting Kamchatka and the areas across from Alaska).

Don't forget a lot of Finnic and Turkic people live in Russia, even the European portion (perhaps Chinese with their huge population might even move into European Russia, all the way to almost the western border, but I'm not sure about that one).

I could see Finland taking much of the area North of Moscow though - a kind of pan-Finnic-Ugric Federation (Karelians, Komi, Mari, Mordvins, Udmurts, Khanty, etc.).

Ukrainians would probably move a little bit into the former Russian Territory (and perhaps other Europeans as well)

I could even see Iran getting in on the action - better watered farmland in S. Russia than back in their highly populated desert/steppe.

[mike alexander]

OK, I've noticed there have been too many shows on what the world would be like without us. I don't really like these shows, for several reasons: 1) it's way too gloomy, 2) human extinction would not leave things so nice and tidy, and 3) why take an entire hour to describe what could be summarized in 5 minutes?

Ah, yes, 3). Endlessly recapping to stretch twenty minutes into three hours.

I find the idea of Russia without Russians so seductive that I'd better stay away.

OTOH, trying the idea of Los Angeles without Angelinos is intriguing. New York without New Yorkers doesn't seem to work, though.

[Ara Pacis]

It'd be like BAUT without astronomers.

[KaiYeves]

New York without New Yorkers doesn't seem to work, though.

And we're glad to hear you say it.

[Maha Vailo]

I find the idea of Russia without Russians so seductive that I'd better stay away.

Just out of curiosity, what do you find so "seductive" about a Russia without Russians? Is it too political to post here?

- Maha Vailo

[Ara Pacis]

Just out of curiosity, what do you find so "seductive" about a Russia without Russians? Is it too political to post here?

- Maha Vailo

Vodka perhaps?

[Maha Vailo]

Oh, Chinese would move into Siberia - with a big enough salary, although they'd have to learn to adapt to permafrost (with perhaps Japan getting Kamchatka and the areas across from Alaska).

Don't forget Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands. Ironically, the predominant ethinicity left on the former in this scenario would be the Koreans, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Koreas got in a little on the action.

Don't forget a lot of Finnic and Turkic people live in Russia, even the European portion (perhaps Chinese with their huge population might even move into European Russia, all the way to almost the western border, but I'm not sure about that one).

I'm not so sure about that. I don't see Chinese colonization getting too far past the Urals.

I could see Finland taking much of the area North of Moscow though - a kind of pan-Finnic-Ugric Federation (Karelians, Komi, Mari, Mordvins, Udmurts, Khanty, etc.).

Well, if the Turkic peoples of the Urals formed into their own state (and IIRC they did for a short time in 1918), then I wouldn't be surprised if the Finnic peoples of Russia banded together as well. I never thought of that.

Ukrainians would probably move a little bit into the former Russian Territory (and perhaps other Europeans as well)

Could they end up being the main ethnicity in the "core" region of European Russia (Moscow and environs)? Can't see anyone else taking control there, except perhaps the Cossacks.

I could even see Iran getting in on the action - better watered farmland in S. Russia than back in their highly populated desert/steppe.

They can have Southern Russia when they pry it from the Cossacks' (and Chechens' and Dagestanis') cold dead hands. Too many tough-as-nails ethnicities (not to mention the Caucasus mountains) in their way.

- Maha "Russian into trouble" Vailo