Sun polar shift weirdness.

**fz89** · 2009-Jun-16, 05:47 AM

I've come across this story randomly that said that the sun polar shift around 2012 will create a solar storm and could send a big plasma blob towards earth that would knock off any means of communication/electricity/tv etc..

is this correct? Cause if it is, we're gonna become primitive dark age cannibals again and that wont last long with all the stuff in the water.

**Jens** · 2009-Jun-16, 06:13 AM

You're mixing up two things. One, a solar flare could theoretically severely disrupt communication on the earth. It is an uncommon event, but apparently could happen. But there's nothing special about 2012, really. It could happen any time, more likely at the top of a solar cycle. But I think it's becoming increasingly unlikely that 2012 will be the top of the cycle. You can read more here.

**fz89** · 2009-Jun-16, 06:17 AM

but could this whipe out the electric power grid?

**01101001** · 2009-Jun-16, 01:57 PM

(How do we go two months without needing to drag this out and now have two cries for help within minutes of each other?)

Here are some BAUT Forum topics that have addressed aspects of predictions for year 2012, and some allied articles:

Universe Today: No Doomsday in 2012
Bad Astronomy Blog: 2012, the year nothing will happen
Universe Today: 2012: No Planet X
Universe Today: 2012: Planet X is not Nibiru
Universe Today: 2012: No Killer Solar Flare
Universe Today: 2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal
Universe Today: 2012: No Comet
Universe Today: Another Voice Against 2012 Mania

**Gillianren** · 2009-Jun-16, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by fz89

is this correct? Cause if it is, we're gonna become primitive dark age cannibals again and that wont last long with all the stuff in the water.

I'm curious about your use of the phrase "primitive dark age cannibals." Why do you believe everyone's ethical stance will be changed if we do lose the grid? (We won't, at least not for long.) I'm sure you mean it as hyperbole--I hope you mean it as hyperbole. However, I'd like you to really think about it. A solar flare does not last long. Even assuming every transformer on Earth blew, assuming every satellite were knocked out, and so forth, we do still have the knowledge to rebuild.

**~~matthewota~~** · 2009-Jun-16, 06:24 PM

Originally Posted by fz89

I've come across this story randomly that said that the sun polar shift around 2012 will create a solar storm and could send a big plasma blob towards earth that would knock off any means of communication/electricity/tv etc..

is this correct? Cause if it is, we're gonna become primitive dark age cannibals again and that wont last long with all the stuff in the water.

Troll alert

**ToSeek** · 2009-Jun-16, 08:06 PM

Originally Posted by matthewota

Troll alert

Please leave that for the moderators to decide. You are welcome to report any posts you find suspicious, but publicly announcing your suspicions is a violation of our rules. Thanks.

**fz89** · 2009-Jun-16, 09:40 PM

Wrong, i'm not some conspiracy nut or anything; i just saw that no one was talking about these sun storm things and i wanted to see what this forum had to say about it. You guys do know what getting a second opinion means right?
Don't go screaming AHHH TROLL at me.

**Jens** · 2009-Jun-17, 04:50 AM

Originally Posted by fz89

but could this whipe out the electric power grid?

According to this article, yes it could. We don't really know, but it could be quite serious. We can't be sure of the effects because we've never experienced a "Carrington event" in the telecom age.

**Maha Vailo** · 2009-Jun-17, 12:15 PM

So in these three years, how would we be able to manufacture and transport goods and fuel from place to place, and what would be the jobs of most people in such a crisis? Would anyone in developed nations starve? How much in the way of food should one stock up in anticipation of such a disaster?

- Maha Vailo

**Swift** · 2009-Jun-17, 01:55 PM

As Jens said, a very high energy Coronal Mass Ejection could have very serious consequences on such things as the power grid. But the odds of such an event are very low.

But, the latest projects are that the next solar cycle will not peak till about May 2013 (not December 21, 2012), and this will actually be a pretty quiet cycle.

May 8, 2009 -- Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.

**Gillianren** · 2009-Jun-17, 07:18 PM

Originally Posted by Maha Vailo

Would anyone in developed nations starve?

People in developed nations starve every day.

**Maha Vailo** · 2009-Jun-18, 01:31 AM

Originally Posted by Gillianren

People in developed nations starve every day.

[nitpick]Are't you thinking of developing countries, Gillianren?[/nitpick]

- Maha Vailo

**Jens** · 2009-Jun-18, 02:20 AM

Originally Posted by Maha Vailo

[nitpick]Are't you thinking of developing countries, Gillianren?[/nitpick]

No, I'm sure she meant developed countries. And she is correct to say so. There are people who starve to death in places like the US and Germany and Japan. I don't know if "every day" is is correct, but it certainly happens.

**Veeger** · 2009-Jun-18, 02:28 AM

What makes 2012 more likely that a CME will hurtle to earth and fry our satellites and electric grids? I will tell you...

Its all because the Mayan calendar runs out.

There seems to be a direct link: end of the long count calendar, CME's attracted to earth. Scientists can not explain the correlation, but there are a lot of non-scientific people on the web who can...for $19.95.

**Gillianren** · 2009-Jun-18, 03:37 AM

Originally Posted by Jens

No, I'm sure she meant developed countries. And she is correct to say so. There are people who starve to death in places like the US and Germany and Japan. I don't know if "every day" is is correct, but it certainly happens.

I've looked at the figures. It's every day. It's pretty heartbreaking.

**Maha Vailo** · 2009-Jun-18, 09:19 AM

OK, I'd love to see where you got the idea that people actually starve to death even in 1st world countries. Go hungry, yes, but starve to death? In other words, "cite, please?"

- Maha Vailo

**Jens** · 2009-Jun-18, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by Maha Vailo

OK, I'd love to see where you got the idea that people actually starve to death even in 1st world countries. Go hungry, yes, but starve to death? In other words, "cite, please?"

I can't give you specific citations, but I read the newspaper, and from time to time I see stories about somebody starving to death (really starving to death) in Japan, which is one of the richest countries in the world. Usually it is an elderly person who was rejected from welfare for some reason, and didn't have relatives to rely on.

**hhEb09'1** · 2009-Jun-18, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by Maha Vailo

OK, I'd love to see where you got the idea that people actually starve to death even in 1st world countries. Go hungry, yes, but starve to death? In other words, "cite, please?"

Unemployed temp worker, 49, believed starved to death in Osaka apartment

**Maha Vailo** · 2009-Jun-18, 02:23 PM

^ I don't want that to happen to me, and I feel my family is just a few steps away from suffering that fate. What's a broke-as-heck family supposed to do?

- Maha Vailo

**Swift** · 2009-Jun-18, 03:15 PM

Might I suggest that we limit the discussion in this thread to 2012 and solar storms, and if people want to discuss other topics, that they do that in other threads

Thread: Sun polar shift weirdness.

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