Betelgeuse! Betelgeuse! Betel-- BOOM!

[sanman]

A story on Fox says that Betelgeuse may be about to go supernova:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,525695,00.html

Is the supernova process that quick, that it can be identified so quickly?
Wow, and Betelgeuse is supposed to be a rather prominent star which has been known to us for a long time.
Strange to know that it's now about to leave us.

[hhEb09'1]

I think this has been expected, this is just another data point making it more likely. It's variability has been observed before (actually, the article says it hasn't been variable over the past decade, just its size has shrunk)

[Buttercup]

Love the title!

[KaiYeves]

Yes, great title.

Say his name three times and he blows up!

[matthewota]

I used to work next to the telescope that is being used in that project. the telescope system is the most unlikely telescope I have ever seen. It consists of three box trailers that have retractible ends. More can be seen about this unusual telescope here.

The original Berkely news release is here.

Nice to see some viable science being accomplished with this equipment.

If Betelgeuse explodes it is near enough to be seen in broad daylight, a supernova that will exceed the one that created the Crab nebula.

[tdvance]

Would it be the first time, since say the ancient Egyptians and star charts that were more accurate and complete than a bear drawn on a cave wall, that a constellation has lost its form? I know Bootes has a slightly different shape than 3000 years ago because Aldebaran moves so fast, but it was just as much a herdsman then as now (or just as much not, if you can't see the herdsman in it). But this one would cost Orion an arm!

[Ampatent]

So if it were to occur is there going to be a gradual increase in light or an immediate shock of luminosity?

[George]

So if it were to occur is there going to be a gradual increase in light or an immediate shock of luminosity?

It will become increasingly brighter over a period of a few weeks or more, then it will slowly dim over a period of many months. [More here. ] The outer envelope it spews prior to the explosion apparently has an affect on what we see.

At 640 lightyears, and it may be slightly closer, a light echo [if one actually happened] off the envelope will appear to us to be about the size of the Moon in only 2.5 years, though not visibly bright by then.

[Tog]

It will become increasingly brighter over a period of a few weeks or more, then it will slowly dim over a period of many months. [More here. ] The outer envelope it spews prior to the explosion apparently has an affect on what we see.

At 640 lightyears, and it may be slightly closer, a light echo [if one actually happened] off the envelope will appear to us to be about the size of the Moon in only 2.5 years, though not visibly bright by then.

Any chance the remaining "nebula" would be visible naked eye? If so, any idea for how long?

[novaderrik]

when this star blows up, how many new age weirdos are gonna come crawling out of the woodwork to say that it's a sign of some sort of impending apocalypse or something?
will it be like the comet back in '87 where a few people bought Nikes and drank purple Kool Aid laced with poison, or will it be more dramatic than that?

[eburacum45]

The outer layers of Betelgeuse are very thin and very very variable in form. See this page of simulations
http://www.astro.uu.se/~bf/movie/dst...n26/movie.html

and the outer layers may be structured in different layers with irregular 'holes' in them.
http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/telescopes/coast/betel.html

With all this variation I would not be surprised to learn that Betelgeuse regularly shrinks and expands over a period of decades, and that what we are seeing is normal behaviour for this very variable star.

[Don Alexander]

So if it were to occur is there going to be a gradual increase in light or an immediate shock of luminosity?

Well, there have been GALEX observations where an early ultraviolet flash was discovered seredipituously from exploding red supergiants like this one, and the same phenomenon has been seen in more detail in the high-energy transient associated SNe 2006aj (XRF 060218) and 2008D (XRO 080109).

What can probably be expected is an initial very powerful X-ray outburst lasting some thousands of seconds which may have significant effects on the atmosphere, such as producing aurora, heating it and endangering satellites and their electronics. (Though this is not comparable to a nearby GRB and should not have any long-term deletirious effects).

The ultraviolet flash will rise to peak in about 12 hours or so and fade within 2 days. Roughly, Betelgeuse could get as bright as Venus, and turn extremely blue, as most of the energy is released in the UV.

Then, as mentioned above, the magnitude will rise within some weeks to a radioactive-decay driven peak. I don't think anyone can say what kind of SN (apart from Type II, d'oh) Betelgeuze will turn into. If there is interaction with the circumstellar medium (it's own ejected gas layers), it could become quite fiercely bright.

AFAIK, the brightest SN is recorded history was SN 1006, which was supposed to have reached the brightness of the quarter moon, so roughly mag -10.5. Seeing this was very probably a Type Ia, it should have been roughly M = -19.5, and it's about 2.2 kpc away. Betelgeuze is more than TEN times nearer, but may only reach M = -17. Still it should exceed the brightness of the full moon by one or two magnitudes, and this as a point source!! This will mean it will actually be dangerous to look at, the surface brightness will be close to that of the sun.

If it occurs during northern winter, it will be visible most of the night. Which means that for at least a few months, astronomy will turn into a study of SN Betelgeuze, and almost nothing else, because it will create terrible light pollution. If it occurs in summer, pity, it will not be so easy to study, but will be clearly seen during daylight.

I'm not sure about either the possible dust echo or the SN remnant. I'm pretty sure they will not be visible to the naked eye.

[agingjb]

The Crab nebula is around mag 8.4, Betelgeuse is ten times nearer, so a comparable remnant (if any) might be visible (ish) at an optimistic 3 to 4 at some time?

[trinitree88]

For rookies....There's a good NASA tutorial here on late phase evolution:http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect20/A7.html
It is surprising to find considerable spectral evidence for iron since at least 2000 see:http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0004-6...2704.text.html. Why? Most stellar models I see infer slow mixing of isotopic abindances from the stellar interior, with a sole exception over the last few decades. (I expect some more knowledgeable astrophysicists to set me straight here). Betelgeuse has shown UV spectra indicating iron for years now. Only a few of the supernova theorists allow models wherein the iron in the core can accumulate for ~ 10 years before a core collapse type 2 supernova occurs. We appear to be on that upper limit of the temporal models. I agree.
Here's a chance for Antoniseb to win another dinner. I already bet that Alnitak would go in two years, and lost. I betcha a Thai dinner that Betelgeuse will go supernova in less than two years, June 12 (a very special person's birthday) 2011. I betcha, I betcha, I boom-ya....pete

[Hornblower]

For rookies....There's a good NASA tutorial here on late phase evolution:http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect20/A7.html
It is surprising to find considerable spectral evidence for iron since at least 2000 see:http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0004-6...2704.text.html. Why? Most stellar models I see infer slow mixing of isotopic abindances from the stellar interior, with a sole exception over the last few decades. (I expect some more knowledgeable astrophysicists to set me straight here). Betelgeuse has shown UV spectra indicating iron for years now. Only a few of the supernova theorists allow models wherein the iron in the core can accumulate for ~ 10 years before a core collapse type 2 supernova occurs. We appear to be on that upper limit of the temporal models. I agree.
Here's a chance for Antoniseb to win another dinner. I already bet that Alnitak would go in two years, and lost. I betcha a Thai dinner that Betelgeuse will go supernova in less than two years, June 12 (a very special person's birthday) 2011. I betcha, I betcha, I boom-ya....pete

My educated guess is that the iron in Betelgeuse's chromosphere was present in the cloud of gas and dust from which the star formed, as a result of previous generations of supernovae. Betelgeuse is a very recent object on the cosmic time scale.

[George]

Any chance the remaining "nebula" would be visible naked eye? If so, any idea for how long?

Just wild guessing, but I would say yes if, by luck, a strong light echo takes place after about 5 months so that the apparent angular size is greater than the resolution of our eyes (1 arcminute). After 5 months, the size for the light echo would only be about 2 arcminutes, which is still very small.

The ultraviolet flash will rise to peak in about 12 hours or so and fade within 2 days. Roughly, Betelgeuse could get as bright as Venus, and turn extremely blue, as most of the energy is released in the UV.

Is this a spike within the spectrum, or more of a BB distribution?

Still it should exceed the brightness of the full moon by one or two magnitudes, and this as a point source!! This will mean it will actually be dangerous to look at, the surface brightness will be close to that of the sun.

Yes, it will be very bright. Assuming the brightness reaches about -17, it will have an apparent surface brightness about 1/6th that of the Sun. [Sun has about 800 sq. arcminutes but is about 5000x the brightness.] But even this is still very bright.

[George]

Here's a chance for Antoniseb to win another dinner. I already bet that Alnitak would go in two years, and lost.

Twas a hot fudge sundae, and for two winners.

[rommel543]

So when the arm or Orion goes pop, will there be a worry here? That is, is there any concern of increase cosmic radiation knocking out satellites, increase in gamma radiation affecting the planet, etc?

[pumpkinpie]

Reading through things carefully.....
The original Berkeley release that matthewota posted, which was listed as the source in the Fox News article sanman posted in the OP, does not say that the shrinking of Betelgeuse indicates an impending supernova. Neither do any quotes from the Berkeley researcher.

It still is an interesting story, but the conclusion in the new story should necessarily be believed unless we hear from the Berkeley group or other scientists that there is a definite connection.

ETA: Even Tuesday's Universe Today article said nothing about the possibility of a supernova.

[trinitree88]

Twas a hot fudge sundae, and for two winners.

George. OK, I'm "fessin "up...yep I owes ya one too! ....at the next heliochromology conference. A first rate theory predicts & pays up when it fails. pete

[sohh_fly]

Is the rotation axis pointed in our direction?
Also any idea of how big a shell will be created,enough to reach earth?

[antoniseb]

I betcha a Thai dinner that Betelgeuse will go supernova in less than two years, June 12 (a very special person's birthday) 2011. I betcha, I betcha, I boom-ya....pete

Let me be *very* clear that I do not make this kind of bet with just anyone on any topic. However, in hopes that I will lose this bet, I accept.

Let me also say that I do not regard the mere shrinking of this puffy envelope as an obvious indicator. I (sadly) think I will win this bet.

[George]

George. OK, I'm "fessin "up...yep I owes ya one too! ....at the next heliochromolgy conference. A first rate theory predicts & pays up when it fails. pete

Double or nuttin'??

[George]

Reading through things carefully.....
The original Berkeley release that matthewota posted, which was listed as the source in the Fox News article sanman posted in the OP, does not say that the shrinking of Betelgeuse indicates an impending supernova. Neither do any quotes from the Berkeley researcher.

True, but they indicate that there is a possibility here for a supernova...

It's possible we're observing the beginning of Betelgeuse's final collapse now.

If so, the star, which is 600 light-years away, will already have exploded — and we'll soon be in for a spectacular, and perfectly safe, interstellar fireworks show.

[Argos]

Well, case it has exploded, the fireworks display will be enjoyed by the people of the 26th century.

[eburacum45]

Unless it exploded five hundred years ago.

...depending on how far away this star actually is. Because it's a variable, it is a bit of a difficult one to pin down. Celestia, based on the Hipparchos readings, places it only 427 light years away. Wikipedia places it about 600 ly. If its going to blow, it might be less painful to observe if it is slightly further away (too close and you will need special glasses to look at it).

[pumpkinpie]

True, but they indicate that there is a possibility here for a supernova...

From which article is that? I only looked at their official press release. I did a search for "berkeley begelgeuse supernova" and the only results I got were pointing back to the Fox News article.
Thanks.

[trinitree88]

Let me be *very* clear that I do not make this kind of bet with just anyone on any topic. However, in hopes that I will lose this bet, I accept.

Let me also say that I do not regard the mere shrinking of this puffy envelope as an obvious indicator. I (sadly) think I will win this bet.

Ha! You're on. I can feel the neutrinos streaming through me already...lol pete

[trinitree88]

Double or nuttin'??

Ha,too! You're on. Double or nuttin. Definitely a nut on this end. pete

[George]

From which article is that? I only looked at their official press release. I did a search for "berkeley begelgeuse supernova" and the only results I got were pointing back to the Fox News article.
Thanks.

I quoted directly from the Berkely release. [Oops it was the original Fox release]

Ha,too! You're on. Double or nuttin. Definitely a nut on this end. pete

It'll be a blast if you win, so good luck.