End of 2009
The easiest solution would be to poison half the population. Maybe two-thirds. This immediately makes labor more valuable, as wages will have to be increased to compete for the remaining workers. Average wealth doubles. Strains on resources are lessened. Global warming self-corrects as CO2 emissions plunge. Plus, the increased difficulty of just surviving in the circumstances can't help but weed out the weak and incompetent, ensuring the survivors are tougher, smarter and less whiny than current people.
War (or general civil conflict) might have a similar effect, plus the devastation caused will have to be cleaned up and rebuilt. A bonus is newer infrastructure. I believe this is called 'creative destruction'. Maybe 'destructive creativity'.
It may depend on which half you are in as well as your time scale. I recall reading Barbara Tuchman discussing the Black Death in the 14th century, and how in the long run, for some of the reasons I mentioned above, the plague may have assisted the final breakup of feudalism, the continuing rise of both secular states and the concept of universal credit, and ultimately the Renaissance.
So, that suggests that being hopeful on the scale of a century is justifiable.
No talk about killing off half the population! Its not gonna happen
Question: Would you guys even know we were in a recession if you didnt hear the media spewing it in your face 24/7?
I know I wouldnt, but then again, im only 17
How are you funded?
Personally, I saw it first when my IRA tanked. I also recently discovered the rates my bank is offering on certificates of deposit have dropped by about two percentage points over the past six months.
What nauthiz said.
The flood of information available today makes it possible for anyone with access to the internet to make some well-informed estimates on the state of the world. The media 'spewing it in your face' could, I guess, be an annoyance if you are cushioned from the effects of a large economic downturn at this time. At 17, it's reasonable to be somewhat insulated for many people. On the other hand, my son will be starting college this coming fall, and his set-aside college fund is looking a bit anemic, despite a big chunk of it being in cd's and state bonds. My own company has had two 10% layoffs since September.
So no, some people won't notice much at this time. Others surely do, big time.
I'm beginning to think the general economic conditions qualify as a force majeure.
A Sunday newspaper analysis down here featured 10 american economists commenting on the duration of the crisis. The good news is that one of them stressed that the average span of an American recession is 1 year [considering the last 10 recession episodes]. Now, on the flip side, recovery of pre 2008 levels of activity may take up to five years, maybe ten.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Mish Shedlock just put this up on his blog, modern day shanty towns rising up in Sacramento:
These shanty towns were a common thing back in the last depression of the 30s. So if you're in the middle of that, I'm sure you're keenly aware of the economic downturn, media or no.
Echo what a couple others have said. Turnaround is when things stop getting worse and start getting better. Recovery is harder to define, and does not mean where we were at when the slide started, because the slide started from a false high. That is the entire reason for the contraction, a false high (or bubble) is bound to pop. (Nothing unusual about bubbles in a largely market economy).
Recovery to me is getting on a solid track of sustained real growth - minimum of 2 quarters.
I think we will bottom out 4Q09 to 2Q10, with sustained recovery by 4Q10. That is just an amateur economist's best guess - and since we are talking about a behavioral science that attempts to predict what Those Darn Humans will do - it is as good as anybody's.
Just as an aside; I did a half-lucky, half-educated guess bail from the market in November 2007 saving my retirement fund from going bye-bye. Most of my friends have lost 50 to 75% of theirs depending on the protfolio mix.
I work for a Blue Cross plan. Laid off 200 this past fall. Enrollment dwindling steadily for the past year and expected to continue for as long as our customers are feeling the pinch. Small groups are going out of business and/or just plain forgoing coverage. Even the large group sector is in steady decline.
The next round of layoffs will probably come when we see how bad the mid-year numbers are; and merit increases have been cancelled outright for 2009. Seems harsh but is certainly not as bad as those taking cuts and losing jobs. And I'm not talking about what the news says; I'm talking about people I know.
Even without all that, there is a very noticeable increase in the number of closed storefronts.
Yeah, I noticed.
At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)
All moderation in purple - The rules
Nauthiz, I am inclined to agree with you. Any quick fix will not likely be a resounding solution.Honestly, I'm not sure I want us to quickly get back to pre-2008 levels. I think that level of economic productivity was artificially high, the result of a bubble - just like in the late 1990s, just like the "Japanese Miracle". Chances are, if we get back to that point within 5-10 years it will be because everyone jumped on a new fad and started another bubble, just like they did in the early-mid 2000s.
Slow and steady wins the race.
I must agree with the consensus above. The last thing needed is a too-fast bump. There have been two bubbles in the last ten years or so. Like losing weight, you can go on a crash diet or you can change your life-style. The first rarely works for long, the second is much harder to do.
Looks like the uptick rule might be coming back. That should at least make Wall Street a bit happier.
Bump for some more debating
Bumps are discouraged here, please don't do it again.
If the thread deserves front page billing it's because someone has something to say.
Reductionist and proud of it.
Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn. Benjamin Franklin
Chase after the truth like all hell and you'll free yourself, even though you never touch its coat tails. Clarence Darrow
A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read. Mark Twain
But hopefully by mid-autumn 2009. *sigh*
Don't let your reality checks bounce. ~MeI'll tell you in the next life, when we are both cats.
I'm on SSD, there's been no significant change for me. (The why's are too numerous to list.) If social security goes fins up, I would be in a world of hurt as I cannot work.
I have heard, that despite the economic blues for some businesses, that other business are thriving and developing. Bike sales, thrift stores (blooming in my neighborhood), electric bikes, motor scooters, and 'yard farms'
Last edited by NosePicker; 2009-Mar-27 at 05:13 AM. Reason: one url wrong
By the end of the year.
That said, we'll only have a few years of Indian summer before mounting debt, Social Security, and a withdrawal of Boomers from the workforce will give us a new set of problems.
My guess is the current spending plan is going to make matters worse not better. I suspect a short term uptick followed by a lengthy recovery. 2013 would be optimistic if we dont get debt under control, but I voted for it as the furthest out choice. With any luck I will be retiring about 2013 too. Most likely retirement will simply mean a different flying job with fewer hours away from home.