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Thread: Dire Predictions global warming text

  1. #1
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    Dire Predictions global warming text

    A new short text / popularization of global warming has been published by DK Limited : "Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming" by Michael Mann of the IPCC team, published in 2009. This is the best short text I've seen on the science and implications of global warming .

    http://www.amazon.com/Dire-Predictio.../dp/0756639956
    Last edited by HypothesisTesting; 2008-Oct-31 at 05:08 PM.

  2. #2
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    Got a link?
    Time wasted having fun is not time wasted - Lennon
    (John, not the other one.)

  3. #3
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    Itīs a book. $ 16.50 paperback edition at Amazon

    Review 1

    Review 2

  4. 2008-Oct-31, 04:45 PM

  5. #4
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    Dag nabbit there is nothing "dire".

    It is the Earth! It cycles! It's going to do what it is going to do! And not tomorrow morning! Dire my ***! Stop scaring the kids you pack of horse's patoots!
    Time wasted having fun is not time wasted - Lennon
    (John, not the other one.)

  6. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDon View Post
    Dag nabbit there is nothing "dire".

    It is the Earth! It cycles! It's going to do what it is going to do! And not tomorrow morning! Dire my ***! Stop scaring the kids you pack of horse's patoots!
    I basically would have agreed with this until I read this book. I now feel like I understand the science much better without all the typical hype. That is the strongest virtue of this book .

    I do agree with the general idea of calming people down though. Our society is too full of scare mongers. I have lived in Florida half my life , and every year the propoganda about hurricanes gets worse.

  7. #6
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    Maybe 'Dire perdictions' are just irony. The reviews donīt make it clear.

    As for "cycles", well, donīt get us started.

  8. 2008-Oct-31, 05:02 PM
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    tardy

  9. #7
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    Must not...start...on cycles...must stop...talking like...William Shatner...

  10. #8
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    C'mon guys!

    There is REAL studies proving this is scaring the crap out of our children. Who are NOT miniature adults!

    011,

    I don't ask you directly very often, but your google-fu is much better than mine. Would you mind?
    Time wasted having fun is not time wasted - Lennon
    (John, not the other one.)

  11. #9
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    I love to tell the real hard-core 'humans and their SUVs are evil' people to Google:
    "Global Warming Mars"
    "Global Warming Jupiter"
    "Global Warming Pluto"
    ...and watch their heads explode.

  12. #10
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    I haven't read the book, so I don't know what sort of predictions it makes, but here in Australia global warming has already had pretty dire consequences by our standards, even though our wealth drastically limits global warming's potential to actually kill Australians. Through resulting in stronger El Ninos, the global warming we have experienced so far appears to have decreased rainfall in much of Australia by over 10%. Now perhaps our easy life has lowered our threshold of what we consider to be really bad, but in an already extremely dry continent we consider this to be pretty dire.

    Now there are people who say that global warming will destroy civilization without any real evidence that it will, just as there are people who say peak-oil will destroy civillization without any real evidence that it will. Pessermists and drama-queens have always been around. However, I don't think it is people writing factual books on the subject that are the main factor contributing to children's fears. I actually think that reading factual books on the problem and what can be done about it could decrease people's fear and increase their sense of agency.

  13. #11
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    I love to tell the real hard-core 'humans and their SUVs are evil' people to Google:
    "Global Warming Mars"
    "Global Warming Jupiter"
    "Global Warming Pluto"
    ...and watch their heads explode.
    If you are arguing that global warming is not related to increased levels of greenhouse gases on earth and is instead related to something common to other planets in the solar system, that idea has been debunked plenty of times on this forum. In fact, if you google global warminng Mars, Jupiter, Pluto etc. you find lots of stuff there debunking the idea, so I'm not sure why these people's heads would explode.

  14. #12
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    Totally not getting involved in this debate.
    *Exit, stage left*

  15. #13
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    I think "global warming" is a pretty well established fact, but I don't think I want to aruge it

  16. #14
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    What he said.
    *Re-exit, stage left!*

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Brak View Post
    I haven't read the book, so I don't know what sort of predictions it makes, but here in Australia global warming has already had pretty dire consequences by our standards, even though our wealth drastically limits global warming's potential to actually kill Australians. Through resulting in stronger El Ninos, the global warming we have experienced so far appears to have decreased rainfall in much of Australia by over 10%. Now perhaps our easy life has lowered our threshold of what we consider to be really bad, but in an already extremely dry continent we consider this to be pretty dire.

    .
    Mann's book points out that the western part of North America has also been in a serious drought for a decade. He admits that climate scientists are not positive if this is related to global warming, but there is a close correlation with ocean temperature patterns

  18. #16
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    It's odd how AGW only ever makes things worse, everywhere.

  19. #17
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    People most likely to benefit from AGW (Russians and Canadians, possibly Scandinavians) prefer to stay quiet on the subject. It's not like they NEED to do anything to speed up the process.

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    It's odd how AGW only ever makes things worse, everywhere.
    It doesn't, but because our society has adapted to one a relatively stable climate, when it changes our we have to make expensive adjustments to cope and the faster the change the more difficult it is. The natural environment has a similar problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Brak View Post
    It doesn't, but because our society has adapted to one a relatively stable climate, when it changes our we have to make expensive adjustments to cope and the faster the change the more difficult it is. The natural environment has a similar problem.
    In other words, now is the time to invest in some nice future oceanfront property.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spratleyj View Post
    I think "global warming" is a pretty well established fact, but I don't think I want to aruge it
    No... a THEORY with significant supporting evidence. In 30 years we may know in retrospect whether it was a 'fact'. BTW.... it quite probably is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by timb View Post
    It's odd how AGW only ever makes things worse, everywhere.
    It would be interesting to assemble all the scientists who have presented the 'dire' consequences and ask them to present the possible beneficial consequences. ???

  24. #22
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    Exactly. Change is good for the Earth. It promotes adaptation, culls the weak, encourages the strong.

    You know - evolution.

    Keeping everything the same all the time simply leads to overgrowth to the point of stagnation.

    Not healthy.

  25. #23
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    Maybe the question should be concerning how the voting public draws its own conclusions on scientific debates. Do they listen to all the data on both sides of an issue and believe? Or, do they make a comparison of the data to their own data? I was a letter carrier for 35 years and can remember Januaries in the 1970s where the high temperature would fail to exceed zero for as many as 17 consecutive days or thereabouts. Many of the older generation from WWII would mention that such cold was normal. We haven't had cold winters like that since the early 1980s. The winters are getting snowier but not colder. So for that group a consensus is that global warming is real.

    People's narcissism can influence decisions as well. Some air conditioning mechanics
    feel that the release of their refrigerants into the atmosphere over the years contributed to changing the chlorine content of the water enough to increase the amount of heat transfer by the oceans from the equator to the northern regions. It doesn''t matter if such an assumption is right or not. It is what some believe.

    Others will see CO2 emission reductions as simply a way to fight against pollution and carcinogens getting into their air and drinking water. Again, it doesn't matter if it is right or not. It is what they believe. They have seen science promise them things before and not all of the promises turn out to be true, especially in medicine where many of them are victims. So they side with their own form of "data".

  26. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mugaliens View Post
    Exactly. Change is good for the Earth. It promotes adaptation, culls the weak, encourages the strong.

    You know - evolution.

    Keeping everything the same all the time simply leads to overgrowth to the point of stagnation.

    Not healthy.
    Now apply this to human beings.

    I don't think you'll get many votes.

  27. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halcyon Dayz View Post
    Now apply this to human beings.

    I don't think you'll get many votes.
    Sure it will. Most people tend to think it is the other people who will be culled.
    Et tu BAUT? Quantum mutatus ab illo.

  28. #26
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    2009?

    Is that a science publishing thing?
    I don't see any Ice Giants.

  29. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Brak View Post
    I haven't read the book, so I don't know what sort of predictions it makes, but here in Australia global warming has already had pretty dire consequences by our standards, even though our wealth drastically limits global warming's potential to actually kill Australians. Through resulting in stronger El Ninos, the global warming we have experienced so far appears to have decreased rainfall in much of Australia by over 10%. Now perhaps our easy life has lowered our threshold of what we consider to be really bad, but in an already extremely dry continent we consider this to be pretty dire.

    "pretty dire consequences" - get a grip mate

    "decreased rainfall by over 10%" - really.

    Its wetter. I am sure there are regional variation, but this is just normal variation. Business as usual for mother nature.

    any other "pretty dire consequences that you can cite?

    are are you just adding to the hysteria of climate fraud?

  30. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by spratleyj View Post
    I think "global warming" is a pretty well established fact, but I don't think I want to aruge it
    Whilst some modest warming has been recorded, I would question the accuracy of measurement to some degree. There are no error bars published on these records, and the modest measurements (at most 0.7degC over 100 years) must have all sorts of instrumental and observational errors. It wouldn't surprise me that it is just noise.

    However, assuming that there has been modest warming, what has been the cause? CO2 is clearly innocent, as the total failure of the IPCC models demonstrates.

    It is likely a signature of urbanisation, which is why the increases are concentrated in the northern hemisphere, not the southern. But no-one really knows, and no-one seems prepared to admit that the science is uncertain and the data ambiguous.

    Much of what is written in the popular media and sprouted by activists (here and elsewhere) is based on the modelling in Chapter 9 in AR4. It really is a house of cards based on very flimsy evidence.

  31. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    There are no error bars published on these records
    Yes there are.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    It wouldn't surprise me that it is just noise.
    Explain what calculations you have performed to reach this conclusion.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    CO2 is clearly innocent
    So you can just handwave away the long established physics of the greenhouse effect just like that?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    as the total failure of the IPCC models demonstrates.
    That's just the usual fallacy of the ill-informed that you have used time and time again -- confusing weather with climate. The models are not used to predict the weather.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    It is likely a signature of urbanisation
    It has been repeatedly explained to you that this is not the case. Please actually address the arguments rather than repeating the same false claims again and again.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    But no-one really knows
    Just because you don't know something doesn't mean that nobody knows it.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    and no-one seems prepared to admit that the science is uncertain
    Nonsense. Climate scientists are quite open about the uncertainties that exist. You are dishonestly trying to pretend that the uncertainties that exist in specific areas mean that everything is uncertain. It isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArgoNavis View Post
    and the data ambiguous.
    The data linked above is far from ambiguous.

  32. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by JustAFriend View Post
    I love to tell the real hard-core 'humans and their SUVs are evil' people to Google:
    "Global Warming Mars"
    "Global Warming Jupiter"
    "Global Warming Pluto"
    ...and watch their heads explode.
    I'm going to go do my part to add to global warming by cycling 10 miles tomorrow, not only heating up myself, which will shed into the atmosphere, but also by producing CO2.

    It's just been way too cold over here in Europe for my taste!

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