This is why I didnt want to debate it..... Did I, at any point, say that every sf scenario is plausible? NO... so the fact that some are not does not prove that they are _all_ unreasonable.Yes, and some of those are just plain wrong in the sense that first contact will never happen that way.
Ok... lets agree on that... it still doesn't show that a) they are looking... b) they are looking here... or c) that whatever method they use works as well as simply receiving a targeted hello.... I claimed that anyone capable of harming us could also find us without much effort.
This is the area of imponderables that I don't want to go to... its too much like arguing how many angels fit on the head of a pin... all of our assumptions in this type of discussion are suspect.you also have to explain why they haven't bothered to look for us in the first place. (Or if they did, why didn't they succeed)
Shoot me for stupidity... but I didnt understand this portion of your post at all. (I _know_ you want to reply... 'And thats why you are not qualified to speak on the topic....' )No, what we do is......... You think I'm nitpicking here, right? But this is an important distinction.....These conclusions are actually often wrong.
Again, angels on the pin... I am not going to speculate on the imponderables....Why not? They obviously care because they are willing to go some way to destroy us.
Sure.. granted. But there still is a world of difference between being detected passively and going to a lot of trouble to actually get their attention.There are ways to look for technological civilizations.
Um... so do you reckon that if they have detected us there is still a possibility they haven't detected us?? A bit too existential an argument for me to follow....Actually it doesn'tThe point is that while there currently, unarguably, is some possibility they have missed us... that drops to zero if we successfully say hello.
And so we come back to... if the risk is small but the possible consequence is major... and you can avoid taking it (especially by simply NOT doing an action).. then do so.But apart from that yes, it is more likely we will be found. The difference is minuscule but it is there.
Cant wait to see what those things are.......Some of the things you said proves that you are not on top of the relevant science nor too good in evaluating situations with extremely low probabilities.
Its possible.... Have a look at my recent post... please feel free to point out any additional assumptions... or any flaws you see.Maybe people are disagreeing with you because some of your assumptions (open or hidden) or your logic is wrong.
Um... I am not advocating doing anything.... the ones who are shouting are the ones who should prove the risk/benefit ratio is favourable. Also they should consult with those affected.No, you only need to accept that the risk is low and that there are possible benefits.
Yeah... I keep saying the risk is low. But I don't recall at any point estimating it.I do believe that the risk is low and that you systematically overestimated it,
Oh dear... a bit late now... the whole of society is premised on a number of implicit and explicit rules about behaviour. Take the one that you cant shout fire in a cinema. Your shout puts people at risk... you don't have the right to do it. Even if the risk is low.......other negative consequences.... I don't like the idea of telling people what they can or can not do without a damn good reason and I certainly don't want societies to get into the habit.
Now we come to the 'By wanting to keep quiet till we know more, you are fearful and paranoid' point in the discussion....
Not suspicion... caution. Suspicion is such an emotive word. I think a bit of caution for kids is not a bad idea... Do you encourage yours to wander off in a crowd? The risk is low..... Most people out there will be helpful and considerate....inspiring for kids to know that we are trying to reach others...[rather than] eying the universe with suspicion...
No.... intangibles can be very important.You might think these are intangible and even unimportant
I think the kids will be alright with 'we wont shout out just yet... we are still looking around the joint to see whats what'