Does GCR = galactic cosmic ray? Does the 500 kilometers per second solar wind significantly slow the almost c speed of galactic cosmic rays?
I've read about the Sun ringing like a bell. 0.1 hertz, perhaps? In woo woo, the Earth oscillating = about 7 hertz? are these mechanical oscillations and/or radio frequencies, perhaps an oscillation of Earth's magnetic field? I haven't noticed a sine wave in seismograph charts, so the sine wave must be much smaller than the noise, if it is mechanical oscillation. What ever this ringing is: How many gigawatts of energy is equivelent to the total? Can we harness this energy? As you can see, a little learning creates lots more questions. Neil
Well, the jinx didn't work, so the sun registered 253 spotless days, putting it in a tie with 2008.
As above, so below
Today it moved ahead of 2008, so 2009 turns out to be even deader than 2008. It's much too early to say this, but it would be really interesting if the sun ends up going into a longer minimum like the Dalton minimum.
As above, so below
Did someone post a colourful list of all the sunspot totals for each year of the century? I saved it but have since lost it hmmm
It may be the list beethovenspiano wanted, but it doesn't fit the description. That's not a list of years with few sunspots, but rather a list of continuous periods without sunspots. So there can be more than one in one year.
As above, so below
Yeh I think thats the one , thanks!!!
The current solar observational data (Last two years) compared to observations of what occurs during a solar magnetic cycle slowdown (Dalton minimum) and what occurs when there is a solar magnetic cyclic interruption, (Maunder Minimum) indicate that cycle 24 is a Maunder minimum solar magnetic cycle interruption.
The Solar Cycle at Maunder Minimum Epoch
The Maunder minimum is considered as an example of occasionally occurring Grand minima, when the solar dynamo was in a special mode. We review available sets of direct and indirect data covering the period during and around the Maunder minimum. The start of the minimum was very abrupt and was followed by a gradual recovery of the activity. The data suggest that while the sunspot activity was greatly suppressed during the deep phase of the minimum, the cyclic dynamo kept working around the sunspot formation threshold level, leading to seemingly sporadic occurrence of sunspots.Cosmogenic isotopes provide the most extendable indirect data on the cosmic ray flux, the state of the heliosphere, and hence on the solar magnetic activity during the past. The most commonly used cosmogenic isotopes are radiocarbon (i.e., 14C) and 10Be, which are measured in tree-rings and in ice cores, respectively. Both tree-rings and ice cores form stratified structures and retain the time variations of the abundance of isotopes in each layer.Cause of Maunder Minimums Solar magnetic cycle interruption14C and 10Be are produced in the atmosphere as a result of nuclear reactions of cosmic rays with the atmospheric nuclei. Then 14C is oxidized to form carbon dioxide and circulates within the carbon cycle between different reservoirs, some of which are very inertial, and it gets eventually absorbed by trees by means of photosynthesis. On the other hand, 10Be becomes attached to aerosols, precipitates with snowfall and is accumulated in the ice in polar regions.
In principle, one could suppose that the occurrence of a Grand minimum can be related to a suppression of sunspot formation without changing the dynamo mechanism itself. This possibility is unfavorable for dynamo interpretation and can be declined because of the fact that the magnetic activity recovery was strongly asymmetric at the end of the MM46 (see Sec. 2.1).
This argument is however not completely decisive because of the threshold nature of sunspot formation, which could amplify a small random North–South asymmetry of the toroidal magnetic field to a seemingly asymmetric butterfly diagrams. The pattern followed from cosmogenic isotope data and auroral records during the MM (Sec. 2.2) rejects this interpretation on a more solid way. This indicates that not only sunspot formation but also the global solar/interplanetary magnetic field was reduced during the MM.Some estimates of the heliospheric parameters have been performed based on the available data sets discussed above. It is supposed 52–54 that the solar wind was significantly slower during the MM, 200–350km/s, compared to the presently measured 400–800km/s. (My comment the solar wind speed has for the last year been 270 to 320 km/s)The interplanetary magnetic field (actually its Bz component)54 and the axial dipole strength55 were also estimated to be essentially lower (by a factor 4–7) than presently. Applying a heliospheric model of cosmic ray transport to the measured 10Be in polar ice, Scherer et al.56,57 have shown that the diffusion coefficient of cosmic rays in the heliosphere should be increased during the MM, which implies decreased level of the interplanetary magnetic field and/or interplanetary turbulence. However, these numbers were obtained using regression or other models based on sunspot numbers and fitted to modern conditions and, therefore, can be considered only as rough estimates.
A particular scheme of solar dynamo suggests a physical mechanism connecting toroidal and poloidal magnetic fields. An obvious way to obtain toroidal magnetic field from poloidal one is the solar differential rotation. It is, however, much more difficult to obtain BP from BT. Parker39 suggested that this can be done by means of cyclonic motions in the solar convective zone. A joint action of Coriolis force and density gradients results in an excess of right-hand vortices in one hemisphere and left-hand vortices in the other hemisphere. In turn, a component of the mean magnetic field B parallel to the mean electric current J appears due to this excess. A consistent theory of this effect was developed in 1960s by Krause and R®adler40 who used the notation α for the proportionality coefficient between B and J. This effect is known now as the α-effect. This scheme results in self-excitation of a dynamo wave similar to that one known from observations.The toroidalmagnetic fields in Northern and Southern solar hemispheres usually have opposite polarities. This toroidal magnetic field configuration is referred to by theoreticians as dipolar. The Maxwell equations admit however another configuration with the toroidal magnetic field of the same polarity in both hemispheres, which is called quadrupolar configuration. In practice, phases of the dynamo waves propagating through Northern and Southern hemisphere can be shifted in respect to each other. This displacement can be presented as an admixture of the quadrupole configuration with the dipole.41
The toroidal magnetic field is hidden inside the solar convective zone and is inaccessible for direct observation. Fortunately, the toroidal magnetic field can be traced by sunspots. On one hand, the sunspots are not an inevitable component of solar dynamo. One can imagine a star with a dynamo wave propagating somewhere inside the convective zone where due to some reason the sunspot production is strongly suppressed. It would be very difficult to recognize the existence of toroidal magnetic field on such a star. In contrast, poloidal magnetic field is present on the solar surface directly. On the other hand, the toroidal magnetic field inside the Sun known via sunspot data is much more intense than the relatively weak poloidal magnetic field. The most spectacular data concerning solar and stellar activity cycles are indirect and represent the toroidal magnetic field behavior.Direct data related to the poloidal magnetic field behavior are more obscure. As a matter of fact, comparisons between dynamo models and observations are based mainly on sunspot data. Cosmogenic isotope data are particularly important because they reflect properties of the poloidal magnetic field, i.e., they are complementary to the sunspot data.
Last edited by William; 2009-Dec-05 at 02:06 PM. Reason: grammar
Nice report. Are there any Maunder, Jrs. in the past?
It seems odd that they would miss the solar wind speed, as you pointed out.
Some estimates of the heliospheric parameters have been performed based on the available data sets discussed above. It is supposed 52–54 that the solar wind was significantly slower during the MM, 200–350km/s, compared to the presently measured 400–800km/s. (My comment the solar wind speed has for the last year been 270 to 320 km/s)
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
Based on the cosmogenic data there appears to also be a Maunder Super Sized.
I am not sure what is happening at the Solar end. I am assuming that the solar cycle is interrupted and what is happening is related to the solar cycle restarting. I have looked at paleoclimatic and geomagnetic observations over a longer period of time (last 10,000 years) to see if there is something that could be connected to a long period significant solar event.
The Younger Dryas cooling event 12900 years ago has the largest change in C14 in the interglacial period. The Younger Dryas appears to correlate with a very large solar event.
It will be interesting to see how cycle 24 unfolds. At this point in time I believe the expectation among solar specialists is that cycle 24 will be either a Dalton or Maunder minimum.
Looking at the latest STEREO images, something interesting could be coming around the corner so to speak.
I've seen threads around here regarding increased cosmic rays and cloud cover and am unsure how much, if any, of that is mainstream. (Usually, such threads try to debunk AGW and hence the whole thread is treated as ATM, so hard to tell if the whole concept is ATM, or just parts of it.)
We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.
There was a pretty large sunspot appear a couple of months ago too... then nothing much at all until this one.
Doesn't look like we are going to beat 2008 for spotless days now.
As above, so below
I am going to ask this very candidly since I am not a specialist in the field.
Has any Cycle24 spots been located on the southern half of the sun? I expected that to get the "butterfly" pattern of a cycle you'd need more or less a 50/50 distribution of the sunspots, AFAIK I don't think there's been any Cycle 24 on the southern hemisphere?
The impossible often has a kind of integrity the merely improbable lacks. -Douglas Adams
I went back two years and this is what I found in the southern hemisphere:
(the dates are approx. start)
1-7-2008 cycle 23
5-7-2008 cycle 24
6-13-2008 cycle ??
12-10-2008 cycle 24
6-23-2009 cycle 24
7-5-2009 cycle 24
9-24-2009 cycle 24
10-16-2009 cycle 24
There have been (a guess, I didnít count) about three times as many in the northern hemisphere.
Last edited by Atraveller; 2009-Dec-21 at 04:21 AM. Reason: spelling - what else...?
The sun is currently spotless. Each new sunspot that is produced by the sun continues to have an anomalously low magnetic field. The solar wind continues to be anomalously low.
2010 will be an interesting year for solar cycle observers.
David Hathoway’s comments. October 31, 2009
What Happened to 2006 Predictions of Huge Solar Cycle 24?
Isn’t it especially strange for you because three years ago, all the physics of the sun that you and NASA and everyone else was using were anticipating that this could (Solar cycle 24) be the biggest solar maximum on record?
We had just previously gone through three or four sunspot cycles that had been only ten years long each, so for the one in 1996 to 2006, it seemed like a reasonable assumption. But as we now know, we were off by at least two years. And if we take conditions on the sun now, it’s a completely different story. The conditions now – using even that same technique from 2006 – says that the next sunspot cycle is going to be half what we thought it was back in 2006.
Another big prediction in 2006 was based on a dynamo model – a model for how the sun produces magnetic fields – and it suggested a huge cycle.
But there also were people back at that time saying otherwise. A group of colleagues led by Leif Svalgaard, Ph.D., were looking at the sun’s polar fields and saying even at that point, the sun’s polar fields were significantly weaker than they had been before and those scientists back then predicted it was going to be a small cycle....
How Small Will Solar Cycle 24 Be?
…I’ve come around to that view now. I think there is little doubt in my mind now that we’re in for a small cycle. The big question now is how small? I think most of us are predicting small cycles. I think even the techniques I’m using now are suggesting half the size of the last three or four solar cycles, but my fear is that even that might be too big just from the fact that it’s taken so long for this Solar Cycle 24 to really get off the ground and start producing sunspots.I have no doubt at this point that it’s going to be a little cycle. My current prediction is that it’s going to be about half of what we’ve seen in the last four solar cycles or so. But in my gut, I feel it’s going to be smaller than that! It’s just so slow in taking off and the indicators that we see – both the polar fields and the geomagnetic indicators are lower than anything we’ve seen before.
Last edited by William; 2009-Dec-26 at 11:27 AM. Reason: added link to quote
Very interesting Mr. Hathoway..........very very interesting. Sounds like future fun to me. I just hope Santa Claus is as good to the children as he was this year.I have no doubt at this point that itís going to be a little cycle. My current prediction is that itís going to be about half of what weíve seen in the last four solar cycles or so. But in my gut, I feel itís going to be smaller than that! Itís just so slow in taking off and the indicators that we see Ė both the polar fields and the geomagnetic indicators are lower than anything weíve seen before.
I'm afraid I have the same gut feeling, Mr. Hathoway. I have had it for awhile. But I didn't say anything, because I didn't want to jump the gun. If I've learned anything from the study of nature it is this: always expect the unexpected.
Well said EricFD. I have said it before and will say again that Yogi Berra says its hard to predict things, especially things in the future.always expect the unexpected
Expect the unexpected by preparing for it......my momma always said. Sometimes we unexpect things by choice. Its easier that way, until the unexpected happens. So if we unexpect by choice, does that mean we expected it to be unexpected. Hmmmm....