The sun is IN a minimum, and it goes into minimum repeatedly every so many years (how often?). Express yourself more clearly, this is NOT what you want to say.Originally Posted by William
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The sun is IN a minimum, and it goes into minimum repeatedly every so many years (how often?). Express yourself more clearly, this is NOT what you want to say.
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New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
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A new sunspot is forming.... apparently the re appearance of an old one. I wonder if the sunspot drought is over at last.
Order of Kilopi
Maybe this should be a new thread in Q&A, but I was just wondering: how long do individual sunspots usually last? Do they usually come and go in a number of days, to be replaced by others, or do they last for months or years?
As above, so below
Member
My momma always said to play nice. William has proven my momma correct. He is 'attacked' with words and called stupid, liar, uneducated, uninformed, idiot, knucklehead, blah, blah, blah, but still plays nice and uses nice words, even in rebuttal.Pardon me, if this isn't the appropriate time or place for this. I'd like both William's and tusenfem's relevant experience and education on this topic made clearer. It seems you are both reading the same material but coming to widely different conclusions.
Why some of you gents like arguements is laughable to me. I have seen things and no discussion about the Sun and Earth should form angry/negative words. The world has plenty to fight over, so some of you gents may do well to perspectivize things.
The Sun is awesome. The Earth is awesome. Magnetic and gravitational forces are awesome. They all work together and thats awesome. Lets be happy trying to figure it out and sometimes make suggestions that may or may not prove fact. Who really cares? Its the internet and none of us are gonna get hurt over these discussions. I pay more than the average share of American taxes so if I want to make a no-**** observation or suggest a possibility/probability, please let me. Especially when data is pouring in each day, week, month, and year.
Didn't Albert or someone say that when magnetic and gravitational force share space and time, if one is weaker, the other becomes stronger? Hmmmm. I wonder it gravitational force is on the rise. If so, shouldn't these G moments have a slightly more powerful effect on Earth. I.E. lunar apogee. I guess time will soon tell......aye?
Information, discussion, and no-**** observations are simple and live freely in my presence. I have seen all of you gents, including my brother William, agree that this is all discussion and educated projections/possibilities. Why argue? Its all in good fun.
I don't care how many letters are behind your name or what academialand you are from. You don't control any of what is happening. If you cant grow your own food and live peacefully next to your fellow man...........the Sun-Earth magnetic relationship could care less, especially when it's siamese twin is doing more of the work.
There, I said it. Some of you 'boys' act like children over some of the silliest stuff. William, I like the way you think and my momma loves your thick skin.Carry on my brother.
Member
EricFD, I love your simple question. "Are you afraid?"
I learned as a young US Army Ranger Lieutenant that death is a part of life. We all die, some sooner, some later. Live and don't worry about fear. Fear will worry about itself. I think you point out a very simple question EricFD and it is good to have you on this forum.
Those that are just happy to be living could care less about all this hairsplitting of ideas. Some of you gents have been weighed and measured and found wanting in the category of happiness, peace, and enjoying other's thoughts.
Established Member
I'd like evidence of where I insulted anyone, or called someone a liar or uneducated. Otherwise, please withdraw your assertation.
CJSF
"In the nightgown of the sullen moon, How the windows lean into the room, In the nightgown of the sullen moon."
-They Might Be Giants
Established Member
I’ll take a shot at answering your question. I know if I’m way off base tusenfem will correct me; I say this out of respect for him, because he is the solar expert on this site.
First, sunspots come in different sizes, small sunspots typically don’t last longer than ½ of a rotational period that is ~25 days at the sun’s equator and slows to ~31 days near the poles. So, small sunspots last less than two weeks until they rotate to the backside of the sun. These small sunspots usually fade away before they come back around. Large sunspots can make their way back around and could last for the second rotation before fading away. Very large sunspots and sunspot groups can last for multiple rotations before fading away. They will be out of view for a couple of weeks at a time before returning.
You might think that all of this would really complicate the tracking of sunspots, but actually the “Wolf Number” used to track them works well as a way to monitor solar activity. Most charts that show sunspot activity use this Wolf Number and even though the larger sunspots might be counted two or three times, the calculation used for the Wolf Number does not consider the size but the double counting makes up for that.
Jim
Order of Kilopi
If that is true, you should report the post in question.
Established Member
Are high latitude reverse polarity spots common throughout cycles? I had thought they occurred mostly during minimum. It would seem we are finally getting past minimum with cycle 24 so I was surprised by Spot 1030's polarity and location. I have been following the suns action since the peak of cycle 23 so the start up of a new cycle is new to me, and of course this one hasnt been entirely typical.
Moderator
I guess I am the bad party here. I guess as a space physicist, studying the solar wind - Earth magnetosphere interaction dayly I am entitled (or at least I feel entitled) to say that William is not understanding stuff he claims to understand from quote mining papers. I have not called him liar, nor stupid, nor idiot, but yes I have said that some notions were ridiculous, misinformed, misunderstood.
Without a good argument, nothing goes further. You should hear the arguments at my job or at meetings.
I have specifically discussed processes on the sun in my last few messages.
"star" words are not allowed here on the board.
Nobody is keeping you from expressing yourself. However, if you say something that does not jive with mainstream interpretations of physics, then you can expect that someone will correct you.
I don't think anyone said that "if one is weaker, the other becomes stronger." One might say "the other is stronger."
No, if you want to discuss for fun, there are other parts of the board. This is the astronomy section of the board, so it is supposed to be a serious discussion of astronomy/astrophysics. And yes, about the end of the minimum and start of cycle 24 there can only be educated guesses, but on basic processes in and on the sun there is more that educated guesses, there is a whole world of professional astrophysicists who describe, model, explain the observations in any number of spectra from any number of different instruments.
No, we don't control anything, you are completely right there, otherwise we would have flipped a switch and turned on cycle 24.
I have no idea what you mean with the last sentence about the siamese twin (of the sun??)
Well, I am glad you could vent your frustration.
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New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
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I did not mention names gents. Perhaps guilt is provoking your senses towards my post. I am a bit older and wiser, although still a very cranky American right now. I will not fight or respond to blah, blah, blah. I love and enjoy each and every one of you gents on this forum. A damb fine astronomer from the University of Texas suggested I come here last year and I have grown a healthy respect for most of you. Certainly all of you following this particalur thread. Ya'll are all good and hard working folks so lets move on with mathmatical, observational, and no-**** theory.
Having little time or energy......i will continue with the discussion.
It is my observational theory that the Earth's magnetic force is reaching out to the Sun. At least in the last two lunar apogee windows of G force.
Why? Tectonic shifts at or near 7.0+. We know there is an extreme magnetic signature that can be measured before the crust moves enough to register with our seismic devices.
That is my observation and I casually invite all to observe the next lunar apogee moment, 22ish November. The Pacific crustal plate zone might not be a bad place to view at this simple USGS link, paid by mine and other American's tax dollars.
Link: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/
Good day one and all. Oh and Happy Veteran's Day to all vets on this site. Your service and sacrifice for peace is appreciated.
Order of Kilopi
That should be posted in ATM.
I should warn you that electric theories have been discussed to death in the past. If you have something new open a thread in ATM.
Moderator
Really, according to your profile you are 8 years younger than I.
I told you that "star" words are not allowed on this board. this is one infraction for you.
Observations prove you wrong, sorry, the Earth's magnetic field is stretched out behind the Earth (as seen from the sun) but is confined to the dayside magnetosphere at the sunny side of the Earth, with a distance of say 10 Earth radii.
I have no idea what "apogee windows of G force" is supposed to mean. This is going highly ATM here, methinks.
No, we do not know, that is why Demeter was launched. It is suspected that there may be an electromagnetic precursor for an earthquake, but none at the moment have been measured. Come to Graz in March, and you will be able to hear a talk about the Laquila earthquake and possible seismo-electrodynamic signatures.
And magnetic signatures CANNOT be measured by seismic devices, unless the have a magnetometer.
Well yeah, if you would look for earthquakes you would look at boundaries of tectonic plates, no surprise there. But if you want to pursue this, I would advise to open your own thread in ATM.
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New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
Member
My goodness brother Tusenfem. I am older and wiser from my previous me. Not comparing myself to you or any other.Really, according to your profile you are 8 years younger than I.
To insure clarity, I am not saying I am old or wise. I am more of a young and dumb Texan.
Only trying to progress myself forward in an older and wiser kinda way, rather than a younger and dumber kinda way. Forum drama is no longer in my kit or on my schedule.
Sorry I confused you Tusenfem and I'll stay away from the four letter words. Lesson learned.
Cheers.
Established Member
Jack Zirker's comment was correct that the solar convection movement cannot explain the sunspots as the maximum magnetic field created by simple convection motion is limited to around 400 Gauss and a sunspot is in excess of 2000 gauss.
The explanation for the sunspot mechanism is hypothesized to be cooling and sudden movement in the convection zone (which super sizes the convection dynamo movement), not a creation of magnetic rope in the tachocline.
http://www.cospa.ntu.edu.tw/aappsbul...3/11Hinode.pdf
3.1. Super Equi-Partition Field
The photospheric magnetic flux tubes with kG field strength and spatial scale of a few 100 km are ubiquitously found across the entire solar surface. Those flux tubes appear as small bright points in Fig. 1. The field strength should have been limited by the equi-partition magnetic energy (typically 400 G) corresponding to the kinetic energy density of the granular flows. Thus, further intensification is necessary to explain
the kG field strength flux tubes.
A theory was that the plasma in flux tubes emerged from below cools and falls due to suppression of heat, and the flux tube narrows until the magnetic pressure of the evacuated flux tube balances with the surrounding gas pressure. This process referred to as convective collapse has been studied for almost 30 years, and is finally confirmed with Hinode [13].
Established Member
I hear David Hathaway is working on a paper to try to explain why the solar predictions for cycle 24 were incorrect, in terms of starting date and magnitude.
It will be interesting to see how cycle 24 unfolds.
Established Member
Solar axial asymmetry?
It is interesting that solar flares occur with a higher frequency on the side facing the planets.
It appears there is something that makes the sun asymmetric which in turns causes a 27 day pattern in lightning strikes on the earth. Curiouser and curiouser. CSI anyone?
http://spacefellowship.com/2009/11/1...on-discovered/
Accurate tool for tracking solar rotation discovered
Waxing and waning, every 27 days
Using Very Low Frequency (VLF) wire antennas that resemble clotheslines, Prof. Price and his team monitored distant lightning strikes from a field station in Israel’s Negev Desert. Observing lightning signals from Africa, they noticed a strange phenomenon in the lightning strike data — a phenomenon that slowly appeared and disappeared every 27 days, the length of a single full rotation of the sun.
“Even though Africa is thousands of miles from Israel, lightning signals there bounce off the Earth’s ionosphere — the envelope surrounding the Earth — as they move from Africa to Israel,” Prof. Price explains. “We noticed that this bouncing was modulated by the sun, changing throughout its 27-day cycle. The variability of the lightning activity occurring in sync with the sun’s rotation suggested that the sun somehow regulates the lightning pattern.”
The discovery describes a phenomenon not clearly understood by scientists. Prof. Price, an acclaimed climate change scientist, believes it may help scientists formulate new questions about the sun’s effect on our climate. “This is such a basic parameter and not much is known about it,” says Prof. Price. “We know that Earth rotates once every 24 hours, and the moon once every 27.3 days. But we haven’t been able to precisely measure the rotation rate of the sun, which is a ball of gas rather than a solid object; 27 days is only an approximation. Our findings provide a more accurate way of knowing the real rotation rate, and how it changes over time,” he says.
Established Member
Rotation of sun affecting lightning patterns on earth.
Position of planets trigger large solar flares. I would look for a different explanation than Hung's hypothesis of solar tides.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Ap...heh%20Hung.pdf
Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets by Ching-Cheh Hung
A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (<10° longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.
Moderator
I give up, please keep on doing your CSI, and please don't try to learn anything, just quote mine and misinterpret. More papers will bring the solution, yeah right!
And if you already quote, please put the correct quotes in the correct posts as obviously you have not done in posts 377 and 378. Or at least keep the discussion to one topic, which would be a better description.
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New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
Established Member
I see you guys are still at it. OK, I've got a question for both of you. What are the three requisite conditions necessary to turn this planet into a "snowball Earth". Not just another "Ice Age" mind you but a planet completely enguled by snow and ice right down to its equator?
It's a simple question with a simple answer if either of you actually know what the heck you're talking about. And, I don't want references or a curriculum vitae. I want a simple answer in plain English to my question. If you don't know the answer, then just say you don't. I do! But, I want to see if either one of you do. I guess this is just my very polite way of saying either put up or shut up! Are we clear?
Order of Kilopi
Only one condition is necessary. Turn off the sun.
By the way, not to you, but in general, what is "CSI"?
As above, so below
Established Member
Well, that, theoretically, is most certainly possible, Jens, but that is neither germane to this discussion nor does it answer my question. Thank you for your reply.
Established Member
OK, what the heck! Let's go there, Jens. Say that a Q-Ball particle has entered into our sun and our sun is dying. Is there anything we can do about it?
Order of Kilopi
OK, maybe I was being snide. But I don't really get the point of your post. At least one of the posters you're asking is an actual scientist working on solar science. But it doesn't mean that either are experts on earth climate. And that isn't even what this thread is about. It's about solar cycle 24, which in itself is turning out to be a very interesting subject.
Does your question really have relevance to the thread?
As above, so below
Moderator
Who knows? It could be a huge volcano eruption (Yellowstone may finally explode) it could be a big comet hitting the Earth, both leading to the supposted "nuclear winter" or the Sun may remain in minimum, wander into a Maunder-like minimum and possibly the Earth cools down.
This has absolutely nothing to do with the whole discussion that you are hinting at.
When talking about solar physics and plasma physics and space physics, yes, I know what I am talking about.
And we are very clear, yes thank you EricFD for setting me straight.
Now, care to tell us how you are going to decide which one of us is correct?
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New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
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CSI, Crime Scene Investigation, a television series, amongst others.
It is also the way that William thinks one should do research, just collect as many papers you can and then somehow the solution will pop out. Somewhere this process was described in one of his threads, I don't remember where exactly.
All comments made in red are moderator comments. Please, read the rules of the forum here and read the additional rules for ATM, and for conspiracy theories. If you think a post is inappropriate, don't comment on it in thread but report it using the /!\ button in the lower left corner of each message. But most of all, have fun!
New blog 31-05-2013: Aurora and the Earth's Magnetotial Part 2: From Birkeland to Cluster
Order of Kilopi
What does this even mean? There is no "side facing the planets".
I see the article takes it to mean that one of the planets was within some bounds of where the flare occured.
I'm reminded of a claim of something that always occurs within 2 weeks of a full moon. Correct, but not useful.
Established Member
Tusenfem, could you just for a moment forget about plasma physics and try looking at the bigger picture, please? What about the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit? What say ye?
I'd be willing to bet that our resident geologist knows the answer to my question. It's really not that hard of a question. It's happened before on this planet. This is your home planet, and you don't even know most of its history? Come on! It's not like I am speaking with stupid and ignorant people here.
Eric
Established Member
OK, a hint: You're forgetting about one of the most fundamental scientific principles, namely, Occam's razor. You're missing the obvious.
Eric
Established Member
I have already given you more than enough clues. So either answer the question put before you or not. It's as simple as 1,2,3. But, I will not answer the question for you. You're scientists. It is your passion to find the answers on your own. Enough said for one day.
Have a good day everyone.
Eric
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