Rogue planets

[jonfr]

I have been wondering about rogue planets, size of planet Mars and bigger. I don't expect planets of size Ceres * (1000 km) to much of a problem.

Noting that our solar system has most of the known planets in the 0 degree to 2 degree angle, I don't expect our chances of of detecting rogue planet entering our solar system at 15 digress to 25 digress much. But I am still open for a debate about that issue, as I do not know how surveillance for such object works or is in place to start with.

I fear the risk of rogue planets to fall into the solar system gravity well, if such environment gets created by forces outside our solar system. But as such I don't expect rouge planet to necessary fall into the solar system at 0 degree to 2 degree plane, as our most of the solar system planets are.

* I consider everything a planet if it meets the following. Is a spear and is 1000 km or lager, or has it's own gravitational pull. Some planets might fall outside the 1000 km size limit due to there density.

[01101001]

I have been wondering about rouge planets[...]

Mars is the rouge planet.

You mean rogue planets?

There doesn't seem to be much reason to worry about rogue planets. There's no evidence there's been one. If one entered, it would most likely just pass through, on a hyperbolic orbit. Our solar system is mostly empty space.

What is your estimate of how many rogue planets there are in the Milky Way? Why?

[Kwalish Kid]

Perhaps the questions is about planets that get their colour from iron content. The increased electromagnetic activity associated with high surface iron content might conceivably change the orbital characteristics of the body.

[antoniseb]

I fixed the type on the OP title. Please let's stick to answering his question.

[Ronald Brak]

I doubt we're in any satistically meaningful danger from rogue planets, but my guess is there is a lot of them. Rogue brown dwarfs have been dectected and since they are extremely hard to detect it seems likely there are a great many more of them. I also think sub dwarf sized rogues are also likely to be common. The majority will probably be mostly ice, but some could be terrestrial type planets ejected from their home solar systems.

[01101001]

jonfr, why do you fear a rogue planet passing through the solar system? Is it just based on a too-vivid imagination, or do you have data and statistics that shows it is an event worth worrying about?

[Ronald Brak]

Jonfr says he has been wondering about rogue planets and that he fears the risk. I'm guessing he just wants to know what the risk is. Fortunately it's pretty insignificant even if rogue planets are fairly common in instersellar space.

[01101001]

I'm guessing he just wants to know what the risk is.

If it's just a question, it belongs in Questions and Answers.

jonfr, why did you place your topic here in Against the Mainstream?

[Ronald Brak]

This is against the mainstream? Ah, time to gird my loins and let slip the dogs of war.

But last time I did that the lions ate the dogs.

[jonfr]

Mars is the rouge planet.

You mean rogue planets?

There doesn't seem to be much reason to worry about rogue planets. There's no evidence there's been one. If one entered, it would most likely just pass through, on a hyperbolic orbit. Our solar system is mostly empty space.

What is your estimate of how many rogue planets there are in the Milky Way? Why?

Thanks for the correction.

I have no idea how many rogue planets there are in the milky way, but given there are billions of suns, it might be a lot. But I have no grounds to even guess it.

I am not so sure about the hyperbolic orbit, it might happen on the right angle. But on the wrong angle, it might not happen. Our solar system and nearby space is filled with space junk, asteroids and other leftovers from this solar systems and others before it.

[jonfr]

jonfr, why do you fear a rogue planet passing through the solar system? Is it just based on a too-vivid imagination, or do you have data and statistics that shows it is an event worth worrying about?

I've been tracking comets and there orbits, but I have been tracking orbits of comets that only make a one time pass trough our solar system. As it gives me a clue to what gravitational objects are out there. Last year I was tracking the orbit of the comet McNaught, I did notice a small anomaly in it's orbit as I did back track it in my mind (since I don't have a program to do this in a computer). I have to note at this point, that I am no good with math and I don't have training in really complex algebra and the math stuff that is used to calculate orbits of comets and planets.

As I did trace the comet McNaught orbit to the end of the solar system, I did figure out that the comet was pulled from it's original orbit somewhere at 15.50 to 20.15 AU. I have since then figured out that the object (at least that is the idea, it is not a theory yet) that changed the orbit of the comet is a object about size of Venus or the Earth, give or take.

Given the original orbit of the comet McNaught, it should never have fallen into our inner solar system. I even doubt it should even have come close to the orbit of Pluto.

I don't even know yet if it is something to worry about. But I hope that there is more data on the comet that I can work on.

[jonfr]

If it's just a question, it belongs in Questions and Answers.

jonfr, why did you place your topic here in Against the Mainstream?

Because I fear that we might be getting our own rogue planet into our solar system. At least I am investigating that possibilities best of my ability and with almost nothing to collect the data or to work on.

If this is proven correct and there is a planet falling into outer of inner solar system, we might see massive changes to the layout of our solar system in a short period of time.

But this is just a idea, before the theory.

[Van Rijn]

Because I fear that we might be getting our own rogue planet into our solar system. At least I am investigating that possibilities best of my ability and with almost nothing to collect the data or to work on.

If this is proven correct and there is a planet falling into outer of inner solar system, we might see massive changes to the layout of our solar system in a short period of time.

What is your evidence for a rogue planet in the solar system? Aside from being very unlikely, it would also be very hard for one to remain unnoticed.

[jonfr]

What is your evidence for a rogue planet in the solar system? Aside from being very unlikely, it would also be very hard for one to remain unnoticed.

Several comets have come into our solar system from the depth of the Oort cloud. Based on there angle and speed, I got the idea that something (a planet of some type, rather then gravity effects from a objects a longer distance) was changing the comets orbits in the Oort cloud. I do not know the speed which the comets where going at when they where approaching the inner solar system. But I do know it was relative fast.

[Hornblower]

I've been tracking comets and there orbits, but I have been tracking orbits of comets that only make a one time pass trough our solar system. As it gives me a clue to what gravitational objects are out there. Last year I was tracking the orbit of the comet McNaught, I did notice a small anomaly in it's orbit as I did back track it in my mind (since I don't have a program to do this in a computer). I have to note at this point, that I am no good with math and I don't have training in really complex algebra and the math stuff that is used to calculate orbits of comets and planets.

As I did trace the comet McNaught orbit to the end of the solar system, I did figure out that the comet was pulled from it's original orbit somewhere at 15.50 to 20.15 AU. I have since then figured out that the object (at least that is the idea, it is not a theory yet) that changed the orbit of the comet is a object about size of Venus or the Earth, give or take.

Given the original orbit of the comet McNaught, it should never have fallen into our inner solar system. I even doubt it should even have come close to the orbit of Pluto.

I don't even know yet if it is something to worry about. But I hope that there is more data on the comet that I can work on.

You acknowledge a lack of mathematical skill, and yet you claim to have been able to spot an anomaly by working out the orbit in your head. Please explain in some detail how you did it.

[jonfr]

You acknowledge a lack of mathematical skill, and yet you claim to have been able to spot an anomaly by working out the orbit in your head. Please explain in some detail how you did it.

As I have lack of math ability in standard form, however I am able to think in 3-D, both when it comes to space and every day items.

[Hornblower]

As I have lack of math ability in standard form, however I am able to think in 3-D, both when it comes to space and every day items.

Please try to tell us, specifically, what it was about the apparent motion of Comet McNaught that was anomalous, and how you inferred an Earth-sized planet as the culprit.

[jonfr]

Please try to tell us, specifically, what it was about the apparent motion of Comet McNaught that was anomalous, and how you inferred an Earth-sized planet as the culprit.

It is the angle of the comet orbit, it has a slight angle in it. I have been doing some re-calculations (in my own way) and I see that the object that did throw the comet into our solar system is a lot further a way (that is if NASA is not mistaken in there program), however, I do believe that the comet orbit was effected by a object at 70 or 80 AU. But the object that did trow it into our solar system is possible at the distance of 150 AU or more. However, I don't know how NASA calculates the comet orbit and give the factor we know little about our outer solar system, it is hard for me get all the variables to do this properly at this time.

At the first round I got the distance of the object wrong, at 15 to 20 AU it is in the outer solar system, it's orbit doesn't get (too much) effect by the gravity of Saturn and Jupiter.

[Hornblower]

It is the angle of the comet orbit, it has a slight angle in it.

What angle are you talking about?
1. Inclination to plane of Earth's orbit?
2. Longitude of ascending node?
3. Argument of perihelion?

If none of the above, please be specific about what angle you mean.

I have been doing some re-calculations (in my own way) and I see that the object that did throw the comet into our solar system is a lot further a way (that is if NASA is not mistaken in there program), however, I do believe that the comet orbit was effected by a object at 70 or 80 AU. But the object that did trow it into our solar system is possible at the distance of 150 AU or more. However, I don't know how NASA calculates the comet orbit and give the factor we know little about our outer solar system, it is hard for me get all the variables to do this properly at this time.

At the first round I got the distance of the object wrong, at 15 to 20 AU it is in the outer solar system, it's orbit doesn't get (too much) effect by the gravity of Saturn and Jupiter.

NASA's visual simulator, along with published orbital elements from various sources, indicate a spectacularly bright but otherwise typical Oort cloud comet. I see nothing that suggests a close approach to a remote planet.

Please explain, in basic mathematical terms, what "in my own way" is all about.

[jonfr]

I will try to answer as best as I can.

1. Inclination to plane of Earth's orbit?

No, the plane which the comet approaches the solar system.

2. Longitude of ascending node?

I am not sure I fully understand you, as I am not sure that longitude are used in space.

3. Argument of perihelion?

That would be close to it, but as the idea goes at the moment. The comet was originally slingshot into the solar system by a planetary body at around 500 to 1000 AU. That planetary body is falling towards our solar system, as such it pushes material in front of it towards the solar system. But as the planetary body is slower then the space junk (comet, asteroids etc.) it puses towards the solar system.

I can track the object orbit as it is published by NASA. However, I automatic calculate the gravity effects (planet size * mass) of the planets that the comet comes close by. The speed and the orbit of the comet is effect by objects it passes by, in reality, it's orbit is not as straight as NASA simulator indicates (so far as my theory goes).

However, I must make a note that I lack a lot of data on this. Mostly data on if there have been other comets that have been approaching the solar system from that angle or a similar one. I unfortunately don't have any idea where to collect that data at the moment.

[Hornblower]

I will try to answer as best as I can.

1. Inclination to plane of Earth's orbit?

No, the plane which the comet approaches the solar system.

2. Longitude of ascending node?

I am not sure I fully understand you, as I am not sure that longitude are used in space.

3. Argument of perihelion?

That would be close to it, but as the idea goes at the moment. The comet was originally slingshot into the solar system by a planetary body at around 500 to 1000 AU. That planetary body is falling towards our solar system, as such it pushes material in front of it towards the solar system. But as the planetary body is slower then the space junk (comet, asteroids etc.) it puses towards the solar system.

I can track the object orbit as it is published by NASA. However, I automatic calculate the gravity effects (planet size * mass) of the planets that the comet comes close by. The speed and the orbit of the comet is effect by objects it passes by, in reality, it's orbit is not as straight as NASA simulator indicates (so far as my theory goes).

However, I must make a note that I lack a lot of data on this. Mostly data on if there have been other comets that have been approaching the solar system from that angle or a similar one. I unfortunately don't have any idea where to collect that data at the moment.

You have not answered the question, in any mathematically comprehensible language, about what angle you are talking about. Please try again.

Please try to explain what, if anything, this angle has to do with possible close encounters with a distant planet.

Here is a link to a good source of information about celestial mechanics.

http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclo...s_entries.html
Scroll down to the various longitude measurements that are used in space to describe orbits mathematically.

Please try again to tell us what you mean by "in my own way" methods of calculation.

While you are at it, please read the disclaimer in plain sight on the NASA simulator page.

This applet is provided as a 3D orbit visualization tool. The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances.

(NASA's bold, not mine)

[jonfr]

I am going to try to explain this. Both with words and with a picture.

A planet of about size of a 1 earth masses directs the comet from it's original orbit (similar to what happens when the earth changes the orbit of asteroids) and directs it towards the solar system. On the comet path to the solar system, it gets a other "correction" towards by a other planet body in about ~60 to 80 AU distance, but the comet original path would have thrown it out of the solar system, as it would have been influenced by the gravity pull of Jupiter. The exit point of the comet also suggest this, but at it's current orbit out of the solar system, it is going to leave the Oort cloud in few millennium, if some planet doesn't change it's orbit.

Here is the picture. Sorry that it isn't good. I am not so good with gimp.

I am also sorry for the lack of math, but I do not know the math symbols to use to show you. And I am no good at writing math formulas directly here. But I am going to look into using OpenOffice Math to explain better.

[Hornblower]

I am going to try to explain this. Both with words and with a picture.

A planet of about size of a 1 earth masses directs the comet from it's original orbit (similar to what happens when the earth changes the orbit of asteroids) and directs it towards the solar system. On the comet path to the solar system, it gets a other "correction" towards by a other planet body in about ~60 to 80 AU distance, but the comet original path would have thrown it out of the solar system, as it would have been influenced by the gravity pull of Jupiter. The exit point of the comet also suggest this, but at it's current orbit out of the solar system, it is going to leave the Oort cloud in few millennium, if some planet doesn't change it's orbit.

Here is the picture. Sorry that it isn't good. I am not so good with gimp.

I am also sorry for the lack of math, but I do not know the math symbols to use to show you. And I am no good at writing math formulas directly here. But I am going to look into using OpenOffice Math to explain better.

Your sketch shows only a hypothetical close encounter with a planet somewhere. It does not show us what there is about the observed path of Comet McNaught, if anything, that might make you suspect such an encounter. Please post another sketch, this time illustrating the observed path around the Sun, and point out that angle you mentioned in post #18 as an anomaly. While you are at it, please try to explain what makes you think a close encounter with an unseen outlying planet is the cause.

[mugaliens]

Well, there are an aweful lot of objects in the Kuiper Belt. It's conceivable that there's a dark Mars-sized planet in there, but it's not too likely that it'll cross our orbit for a variety of reasons, one of which has to do with a certain stability of orbits, and even Pluto's inclination happens to be dynamically stable and stabilized by the orbits of the other planets.

rtomes - kudos for highlighting this last month. I'm glad to have learned something new.

[jonfr]

Sorry for late answer, I've been busy. I can try to make a path of the comet, along with some math formulas (my math problem is with numbers, not the other stuff). But it is going to take me a awful lot of time to do so, as I need to learn few new things while I am at it.

But I am ready to debate this until I get that stuff ready.

[Jens]

I
But I am still open for a debate about that issue, as I do not know how surveillance for such object works or is in place to start with.

Beyond the question of whether this is even a remote risk (it does not appear to be), what would be the point of tracking such objects? Suppose that we found a large planet heading straight for the earth. What then? I suppose everybody could go out and party like it's 1999.

[Hornblower]

It is the angle of the comet orbit, it has a slight angle in it. I have been doing some re-calculations (in my own way) and I see that the object that did throw the comet into our solar system is a lot further a way (that is if NASA is not mistaken in there program), however, I do believe that the comet orbit was effected by a object at 70 or 80 AU. But the object that did trow it into our solar system is possible at the distance of 150 AU or more. However, I don't know how NASA calculates the comet orbit and give the factor we know little about our outer solar system, it is hard for me get all the variables to do this properly at this time.

At the first round I got the distance of the object wrong, at 15 to 20 AU it is in the outer solar system, it's orbit doesn't get (too much) effect by the gravity of Saturn and Jupiter.

I will repeat my questions.

1. What "angle" are you talking about?

2. What is your "in my own way" method of calculation?

[jonfr]

I will repeat my questions.

1. What "angle" are you talking about?

2. What is your "in my own way" method of calculation?

1: That angle would be -23° (0° is the flat panel of the solar system, by using 90° angle). The comet is leaving the solar system at about 14° angle. The point I use to find this out is Jupiter and I am using sun as a central point.

2: I track objects with my mind by picturing there orbital movement, given by there entry to the inner solar system. A sample formula would look like this, please not that there might be errors in the numbers and in the formula. As this is poor translation to standard numeric format.

N = Planet pull
C = comet
A = angle
s = speed
J = Jupiter
SN = Sun effects

N^2 - C * A / J + s * SN *0^N*2 {C*A}
C*N / A * J^2
SN * 0^2 + s / A * J
C - A ^ s * J

This is about it. But please note that this problay contains errors due to the fact that I am no good at moving math formulas to text format.

[Hornblower]

1: That angle would be -23° (0° is the flat panel of the solar system, by using 90° angle). The comet is leaving the solar system at about 14° angle. The point I use to find this out is Jupiter and I am using sun as a central point.

2: I track objects with my mind by picturing there orbital movement, given by there entry to the inner solar system. A sample formula would look like this, please not that there might be errors in the numbers and in the formula. As this is poor translation to standard numeric format.

N = Planet pull
C = comet
A = angle
s = speed
J = Jupiter
SN = Sun effects

N^2 - C * A / J + s * SN *0^N*2 {C*A}
C*N / A * J^2
SN * 0^2 + s / A * J
C - A ^ s * J

This is about it. But please note that this problay contains errors due to the fact that I am no good at moving math formulas to text format.

What I see here is a lot of pseudo-mathematical chatter which tells us nothing one way or the other about possible rogue planets, or anything else for that matter. The published orbital elements of Comet McNaught show an unremarkable near-parabolic orbit that is typical of comets that reputedly originate in the Oort cloud.

I rest my case.

[jonfr]

The Angular Momentum of the comet McNaught is wrong. Just the fall speed of the comet into to the solar system also suggest that she got pushed into it by a planetary object. Along with it angle into the solar system.

My math is not pseudo in nature, however I did warn you that I was no good in writing math in text format.

Comets that are on parabolic orbit return, the orbital exit of comet McNaught suggest that is is going to leave the Oort Cloud in few millenniums.

You have not proven me wrong, you have just stated it without reasoning your case.