Von Neumanns

[DanishDynamite]

For peons like ourselves for whom the speed-of-light presents a real barrier to space exploration and collonization, von Neumann machines seem to present the only realistic way of making this happen in a foreseeable future.

But, how realistic are von Neumanns themselves? Anyone know of any projects working towards this end today?

[KaiYeves]

What are von Neumanns?

[DanishDynamite]

Look it up.

[KaiYeves]

To the point- that's admirable...
Encarta just recognizes the name as something with a mathematician, nothing more.

[DanishDynamite]

To the point- that's admirable...
Encarta just recognizes the name as something with a mathematician, nothing more.

I'm surprised that someone with your knowledge on so many subjects, as shown by your propensity for spraying short comments on any subject posted, would be unaware of the meaning of von Neumanns.

Still, I suppose even know-it-alls have a limit, so educate yourself here.

[01101001]

Still, I suppose even know-it-alls have a limit, so educate yourself here.

It seemed like a reasonable request to you to define an unrecognized name, and this seemed an unreasonable use of the know-it-all label.

[DanishDynamite]

It seemed like a reasonable request to you to define an unrecognized name, and this seemed an unreasonable use of the know-it-all label.

I disagree.

Any thoughts on the OP?

[Bearded One]

I disagree.

I don't, there was no need for that type of terse response to the question.

Any thoughts on the OP?

But, how realistic are von Neumanns themselves?

*WE* are von Nuemann machines, of the biological kind. So they are definitely realistic

I'm not sure how the light speed limit requires von Nuemanns though. They can help with *any* large scale project. If we ever want to build a Ringworld or a Dyson sphere we are going to need(want) them. They will also certainly come in handy if our ships reach another system ready for terraforming and colonization.

They are not required though.

You really need to expand upon your question a bit. What level of von Nuemann are you after? Drop some on a planet and come back 5 years later and move into your new house, complete with swimming pool?

Reproducing is difficult. Biology seems to have it down pat, but the mechanical world has a ways to go. Nanotechnology would help a lot. The first von Nuemann machines will likely be (already are?) constructed with nanotechnology.

[DanishDynamite]

I don't, there was no need for that type of terse response to the question.

The terse response was not to the question as such, but to the behaviour of the responder.

*WE* are von Nuemann machines, of the biological kind. So they are definitely realistic

I'm not sure how the light speed limit requires von Nuemanns though. They can help with *any* large scale project. If we ever want to build a Ringworld or a Dyson sphere we are going to need(want) them. They will also certainly come in handy if our ships reach another system ready for terraforming and colonization.

The light speed limit implies that any exploration and colonization of the Galaxy we try to do with current knowledge can at most be done by extreme slowboats. Many-generation ships, if you will.

Even one such ship would be prohibitively expensive. The same isn't true for a von Neumann, once the R&D has been done.

They are not required though.

I think they are.

You really need to expand upon your question a bit. What level of von Nuemann are you after? Drop some on a planet and come back 5 years later and move into your new house, complete with swimming pool?

The type of von Neumann which could automatically start a colony of humans on a new planet. At least, that would be the goal.

Reproducing is difficult. Biology seems to have it down pat, but the mechanical world has a ways to go. Nanotechnology would help a lot. The first von Nuemann machines will likely be (already are?) constructed with nanotechnology.

The first von Neumanns would be for exploration only. Once the basic concept has been tested and found workable, the von Neumanns with colonizing abilities would be developed.

[KaiYeves]

I don't pretend to know it all or even be an expert in anything. I just read a lot and know some estoric things. And I like to participate. Thanks for the link. No hard feelings?

[Bearded One]

The type of von Neumann which could automatically start a colony of humans on a new planet. At least, that would be the goal.

That's quite a goal.

James P. Hogan wrote a novel titled Voyage From Yesteryear that does basically that. It does it with embryos, the machines make the planet ready for them when they have grown up. Not sure if I would call them true von Nuemann machines though. More like a very well thought out algorithm that timed out just as the kids were ready to take over. If the kids didn't make it the whole thing would have collapsed.

[Ronald Brak]

DanishDynamite, most people on this forum respond to a request for more information with information or an actual link. I'm assuming that this is an unwritten social rule on this forum as it appears to be what is normally done. Something very brief such as, "Von Neumanns are self replicating machines," would probably be fine.

[Ronald Brak]

But, how realistic are von Neumanns themselves? Anyone know of any projects working towards this end today?

As mentioned non-artificial Von Neumann machines already exist. There is a machine called the RepRap and the people working on it hope the machine will be able to self replicate sometime next year. However this is not a true Von Neumann machine as it can't replicate the computer that controls it. However it will be an impressive step.

[Jim]

The terse response was not to the question as such, but to the behaviour of the responder.

And this is in response to your behaviour, which is not accepted on BAUT.

KaiYeves asked you a simple, direct question. Your initial response was flippant at best. Your follow up at least bordered on being an ad hominem and was definitely impolite.

You might want to take the time to refresh yourself on the Rules for Posting, especially Rule 2.

Consider this a warning.

[Ronald Brak]

I'm assuming that this is an unwritten social rule on this forum as it appears to be what is normally done.

Make that a written social rule.

[ToSeek]

As a computer programmer, my default definition of "von Neumann machine" is that of a calculating machine with a processing unit and a memory unit containing both the code and the data. (Wikipedia lists five different interpretations.)

[stutefish]

Even one such ship would be prohibitively expensive.

Personally, I disagree with the assumption that such ships are prohibitively expensive. I think that the way things are going, the first generation ships will be built by private hobbyist clubs, funded by their memebership, and costing a fraction of the world's total wealth; and that the first one will be launched within the next hundred years or so.

I also suspect that the passengers/crew/symbionts of such ships will have given up planet-living in favor of space-living anyway. If it's any consolation, they'll probably incorporate some "von Neumann-esque" resource-harvesting techniques to improve their longevity.

[01101001]

(Wikipedia lists five different interpretations.)

I'll take von Neumann probes, for $500, Alex.

[Bolasanibk]

Personally, I disagree with the assumption that such ships are prohibitively expensive. I think that the way things are going, the first generation ships will be built by private hobbyist clubs, funded by their memebership, and costing a fraction of the world's total wealth; and that the first one will be launched within the next hundred years or so.

I would think permanent space stations in NEO with population numbers of at least a couple of thousand running for about a decade would be a very good idea before we started on a generation ship. That would give us enough time to try out the systems within reach of help, if any of them goes kaput.

And not one is on the plans for any space org in the near future. So I am not very optimistic for a generation ship in the next hundred years.

And a fraction of worlds total wealth still sounds like a lot of money, to me at least.

[cr1t]

If you account for the rather current difficulty in manafacturing anything, with current technology it is imposible, if you would imagine after the probe reaches it's destination it would have to scour the land in search for materials/ set up some sort of refinary manafacturing plant create a powersource for the plant. Considering lots of materials used won't just be your normal metal but also include garbon, plastics ect. With nano technology this could be a lot easier, but I would say it could be at least 50 to 100 years before we see the first one.

[stutefish]

I would think permanent space stations in NEO with population numbers of at least a couple of thousand running for about a decade would be a very good idea before we started on a generation ship. That would give us enough time to try out the systems within reach of help, if any of them goes kaput.

And not one is on the plans for any space org in the near future. So I am not very optimistic for a generation ship in the next hundred years.

And a fraction of worlds total wealth still sounds like a lot of money, to me at least.

Heh. I imagine that the first generation ship will start life as an LEO space station.

NASA didn't exist even twenty five years before Apollo, and there were no plans for a manned Moon mission for any space org ten years before Apollo. I think that at the rate technology is advancing, and at the rate advanced technology is becoming cheaper, the next hundred years will see a lot of interesting developments. Things every American consumer takes for granted nowadays (general purpose computers, just to pick one example out of thousands) used to be "prohibitively expensive", the exclusive domain of powerful government agencies with vast wealth at their disposal. I suppose the trend towards everything getting cheaper and easier and more accessible to the common man could end, but if it doesn't...

As to a "fraction of the world's wealth" seeming like a lot of money to you, I agree that it probably is a lot of money, and will continue to be for some time. But it's a lot less money than DanishDynamite's "prohibitively expensive". I stand by my prediction that within the next hundred years, it won't be a lot of money to you and a couple thousand of your fellow hobbyists and Generation Ship Construction Society members, pooling their resources to realize a common dream.

[Swift]

For peons like ourselves for whom the speed-of-light presents a real barrier to space exploration and collonization, von Neumann machines seem to present the only realistic way of making this happen in a foreseeable future.

But, how realistic are von Neumanns themselves? Anyone know of any projects working towards this end today?

I generally agree with Bearded One. The necessity of von Neumann machines is dependent upon what you want to do, exploration versus colonization, and small-scale versus big-scale (I'll explain that).

If all you want to do is send some probes to near-by stars, I don't see an advantage to von Neumann machines. It would be easier to just send probes directly from Earth. The same goes for colony ships to near-by stars (whether you do stasis, generation ships, frozen embryos).

But, if one wanted to explore or colonize large portions of the galaxy by leap-frogging from one system to the next, a von Neumann machine is the way to go.

As far as "foreseeable" future, well, I can see pretty far . But I don't see this happening any time soon. Hundreds of years (200-500) seems reasonable. I think a von Neumann type space probe would be a lot harder to do than science fiction stories would seem to make you believe. Think of something like a Voyager probe - all the different systems - propulsion, computing, communications, sensors, all the different materials that you have to make these from, the degree of refining and machining of these materials. You basically have to duplicate multiple NASA contractors and send them to another star system, and have them operate without human interaction.

At this point in the conversation someone usually brings up nano-bots or something similar, as the answer to all these problems. Personally, I think that such a technology is still a fairy tale, and throwing in the prefix "nano" doesn't change that (search for previous discussions on BAUT about nano-tech).

[Bolasanibk]

Heh. I imagine that the first generation ship will start life as an LEO space station.

NASA didn't exist even twenty five years before Apollo, and there were no plans for a manned Moon mission for any space org ten years before Apollo. I think that at the rate technology is advancing, and at the rate advanced technology is becoming cheaper, the next hundred years will see a lot of interesting developments. Things every American consumer takes for granted nowadays (general purpose computers, just to pick one example out of thousands) used to be "prohibitively expensive", the exclusive domain of powerful government agencies with vast wealth at their disposal. I suppose the trend towards everything getting cheaper and easier and more accessible to the common man could end, but if it doesn't...

As to a "fraction of the world's wealth" seeming like a lot of money to you, I agree that it probably is a lot of money, and will continue to be for some time. But it's a lot less money than DanishDynamite's "prohibitively expensive". I stand by my prediction that within the next hundred years, it won't be a lot of money to you and a couple thousand of your fellow hobbyists and Generation Ship Construction Society members, pooling their resources to realize a common dream.

I do not doubt our technical ability or the availability of resources to do that. Given a good enough incentive, I am positive it will be done. But I dont think it will happen. Political considerations, not enough budget allocated, people questioning the need to spend that much money on space when there is so much to be done on earth( ) will delay the program.

And we do need to find an exoplanet before we start off.

[stutefish]

I do not doubt our technical ability or the availability of resources to do that. Given a good enough incentive, I am positive it will be done. But I dont think it will happen. Political considerations, not enough budget allocated, people questioning the need to spend that much money on space when there is so much to be done on earth( ) will delay the program.

And we do need to find an exoplanet before we start off.

Ah. I'm talking about private enterprise. A relative handful of enthusiasts who dream of voyaging through space and see the technology within their collective grasp. The only people spending money on it will be the ones who already believe in the value of the project.

And I think they'll do it for the satisfaction of voyaging among the stars, rather than the achievement of colonizing another planet.

[Ronald Brak]

With nano technology this could be a lot easier, but I would say it could be at least 50 to 100 years before we see the first one.

I am fairly confident that we will have artificial nanotech self replicators within ten years and quite possibly much sooner. The first ones won't do much more than replicate themselves but after that it will be very easy to get them to do a varitey of useful simple tasks. To begin with their ability to reproduce outside of liquid water or to build macroscale objects will be limited as they will be artificial bacteria. Building self replicators that could be put on an asteroid and grow a radio transmitter to send information back to earth would probably be much more difficult. How difficult I can't say.

[Swift]

I am fairly confident that we will have artificial nanotech self replicators within ten years and quite possibly much sooner. The first ones won't do much more than replicate themselves but after that it will be very easy to get them to do a varitey of useful simple tasks. To begin with their ability to reproduce outside of liquid water or to build macroscale objects will be limited as they will be artificial bacteria. Building self replicators that could be put on an asteroid and grow a radio transmitter to send information back to earth would probably be much more difficult. How difficult I can't say.

I agree that bio-nano-machines, i.e., engineered bacteria and viruses will happen relatively soon, and I think ten years is a good guess (in some senses, we have them now). But they will be designed for very specific applications, such as in medicine or biochemical processing. I still think that it is a huge leap from that to a "device" that can land on some planet or similar body and convert materials it finds into a duplicate of itself that will go to another solar system - nanotech components or not.

[Van Rijn]

I agree that bio-nano-machines, i.e., engineered bacteria and viruses will happen relatively soon, and I think ten years is a good guess (in some senses, we have them now). But they will be designed for very specific applications, such as in medicine or biochemical processing. I still think that it is a huge leap from that to a "device" that can land on some planet or similar body and convert materials it finds into a duplicate of itself that will go to another solar system - nanotech components or not.

Our current industrial infrastructure has most of the components of a self replicating system. True, humans are a key part, but productivity (roughly, the amount handled by machines) keeps increasing. If we focused on designing a simplified self replicating system rather than try to do everything our industrial system does today, I think we could manage it.

Nanotech doesn't need to mean nanoscale self replicating robots that can do everything on their own. It could be part of something that simplifies certain specific functions in a macroscale (factory sized or larger) replicator. For example, we tend to use already enriched ores because it is physically simpler and less energy intensive to use them. Specialized nanomachines might well allow using much more common material for raw materials, which would simplify the gathering of construction material for large replicators.

I agree we're some time away from self replicating starships, but that is partly because of the severe requirements of starships. I think we would be using replicators to build habitats in the solar system for some time before we would try starships.

[DanishDynamite]

I don't pretend to know it all or even be an expert in anything. I just read a lot and know some estoric things. And I like to participate. Thanks for the link. No hard feelings?

No hard feelings, KaiYeves.

Your behaviour of posting short comments to some 20 or more threads with just a few minutes between each comment just awoke a red flag. Though I'm just a newbie on this forum, I do have quite a few years of experience on Internet forums, including experience with drive-by-shooters, spammers and similar.

Sorry if I got the wrong impression.

[DanishDynamite]

That's quite a goal.

James P. Hogan wrote a novel titled Voyage From Yesteryear that does basically that. It does it with embryos, the machines make the planet ready for them when they have grown up. Not sure if I would call them true von Nuemann machines though. More like a very well thought out algorithm that timed out just as the kids were ready to take over. If the kids didn't make it the whole thing would have collapsed.

Hogan is one of my favorite SF authors. "Code of the Lifemaker" and "The Gentle Giants of Ganymede" are among my very favorite SF novels.

Can't say I remember reading "Voyage From Yesteryear" but now that you've mentioned it, I'm getting it!

Anyway, yes it is quite a goal. But I don't see any reason in principle it couldn't be done and given the incredible expense of slow-boats, it seems the most efficient way to go.

[DanishDynamite]

DanishDynamite, most people on this forum respond to a request for more information with information or an actual link. I'm assuming that this is an unwritten social rule on this forum as it appears to be what is normally done. Something very brief such as, "Von Neumanns are self replicating machines," would probably be fine.

I understand. I would have done so if, at the time, I felt the question was asked in earnest.