Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012

[2001Intrepid]

Not quite Space nor a conspiracy, but thought I'd post to see if anyone can debunk/comment on this. Heard of Sean David Morton? He's kind of up there on the credibility scale with Ed Dames and a few other woo's. But http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THc4VX0qmLQ shows a short video of him making some interesting if not totally fallacious claims. I have done as much research as I can including contacting the University of Hyderabad in India, but they did not answer (probably thought I was crazy!). In short, the claim is: the Earth's magnetic field and geographic field are apart (this much is true), but in 5-7 years (ie, around 2012, of course), the magnetic pole will wander to the physical pole and they will meet, according to this (unverifiable) "computer model study" supposedly done at the University of Hyderabad. Allegedly their results show that in a certain percentage of cases there would be a magnetic pole shift when the two poles meet and in a smaller percentage the planet itself will shift. Now we're all aware of the old pole shift stories that keep cropping up, and I know of no mechanism why the two poles meeting (if in fact they ever will) should cause such things... Or maybe just good old Sean is just messing with our heads. Anyone heard of this??? (P.S. If you watch the video try to ignore his metaphysical meanderings which are nonsense and a distraction; what I'm really interested in whether there is any scientific truth here). Thanks.

[01101001]

Not quite about space nor a conspiracy, but thought I'd post to see if anyone can debunk this.

2012 predictions don't usually describe pole shifts. This topic did some: Pole shift idea origins.

But, if you look hard enough, probably all effects are predicted for 2012, somewhere.

===

Not quite about your topic, but I've got this unstoppable urge to include this article in my 2012 list:

Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012 Plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy?
Galactic Tsunami?
So what will we see in 2012?
2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)
Horizon Project-New End of World Scare?
Pole shift idea origins
2003 no, 2012 si
2012
Pole shift / Planetary alignment 2012?
2012 alignment question
about the Mayan 2012 item
2012 Debunking?
Possible asteroid impact in 2012?
2012 asteroid?
We don't have to worry about 2012!
More on 2012 from India Daily
2012 Completion of conspiracy?
Here's what's REALLY going to happen in 2012...
crop circles, Planet X and 2012
Planet X, crop circles and 2012 cataclysma
According to the Mayans, what will happen on 23rd Dec. 2012?
More 2012 Nonsense
NEO 2012?
Dangerous NEO in 2012?
Christmas 2012
2012 mayan calender end of world
Regarding the supposed polar shift/new ice age in 2012
New 2012 threat?
2012 look at this thing on the sun
Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012
Dec 20 2012
2012 Stuff
Date: December 21st 2012
Earth passing thru Galactic center in 2012 - didn't that already happen?
2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)

[2001Intrepid]

Thanks for pointing out that thread.

[01101001]

Thanks for pointing out that thread.

I by no means searched through all those threads for similar stuff. And I'm no expert on the many claims. It could be old news, or geomagnetic catastrophe could well be a new effect predicted for 2012. The 2012 fear-mongers are nothing if not creative.

[TheOncomingStorm]

On the the last day 2012 we should have party to say good bye to this myth.

[Nowhere Man]

Hmph. By that time, there will be at least three other "end of the world" stories running about, all pointing to some years ahead.

Stupidity never dies, it just changes bandwagons.

Fred

[Swift]

<snip>
In short, the claim is: the Earth's magnetic field and geographic field are apart (this much is true), but in 5-7 years (ie, around 2012, of course), the magnetic pole will wander to the physical pole and they will meet, ...

What the heck is a "geographic field"? There is a pole in the sense that the rotational axis of the Earth has north and south points, but there is no "field". Is there supposed to be "geographic energy"? (I understand 2001Intrepid you are just the messenger)

[2001Intrepid]

What the heck is a "geographic field"? There is a pole in the sense that the rotational axis of the Earth has north and south points, but there is no "field". Is there supposed to be "geographic energy"? (I understand 2001Intrepid you are just the messenger)

You're right and sorry-I misspoke in my question. What I meant was "rotational" pole, not geographic field. I meant that point at which around the mass of the Earth actually spins. So, AFAIK, the actual spin/rotational/geographic pole of Earth is not at the same location of the geomagnetic pole (which is wandering and projected to be in Siberia within 50 years) . To clear any confusion, I meant that Sean Morton claims that when the rotational (geographic) North pole meets with the wandering magnetic North pole (which is caused by the spinning Earth's core), then the "trouble" is supposed to happen. And according to the video, it's not exactly in 2012 but 2012 to 2014. Anyone know if the poles are projected to meet then, and what, (if probably nothing), will happen if they do?

[TriangleMan]

Not quite about your topic, but I've got this unstoppable urge to include this article in my 2012 list:

Impressive list, thanks for maintaining it. Wish I had done that with PX stuff back in 2002-2003.

[2001Intrepid]

Impressive list, thanks for maintaining it. Wish I had done that with PX stuff back in 2002-2003.

I agree, with 2012 hysteria right around the corner, that list should be sticky and required reading for those who get caught in the prophetic 2012 mess!

[tusenfem]

Man, that must be some torque that the intergalactic magnetic field will put onto the Earth, when the poles align and the whole Earth flips. Leave it to the University of Hyderabat to come up with something like this (if they do at all, but they seem to be popping up in threads with woowoo stuff and GLP).

It makes no sense that the Earth would flip at alignment, because it could just as easily flip with a small angle between the two, does not change that much the torque needed. Unless, you can come up with some magical energy source that can only be tapped from when alignment is there.

Wow, and I have not even looked at youtube .

[Swift]

On this website from Woods Hole is data on the position over time. Using the 2001 to 2005 data, I did a linear regression of latitude as a function of year. It was a pretty good fit (r^2 = 0.9976) and if I extrapolate it, the magnetic pole does not reach 90 degrees latitude till about 2026, not 2012.

While looking around for the data, I found this NASA link that talks about pole reversals.

They've also learned what happens during a magnetic flip. Reversals take a few thousand years to complete, and during that time--contrary to popular belief--the magnetic field does not vanish. "It just gets more complicated," says Glatzmaier. Magnetic lines of force near Earth's surface become twisted and tangled, and magnetic poles pop up in unaccustomed places. A south magnetic pole might emerge over Africa, for instance, or a north pole over Tahiti. Weird. But it's still a planetary magnetic field, and it still protects us from space radiation and solar storms.

[tusenfem]

Swift, nice fitting!

Indeed as the quote says, the field does not vanish. Unfortunately, the quote is "dummed down" for the general, but we here on BAUT are edumacated and know that what they want to say is that the dipole component disappears (and reappears) and will leave only the higher order moments of the magnetic field. Therefore, we see four poles in the simulation, generated by the quadrupole field.

[01101001]

Impressive list, thanks for maintaining it. Wish I had done that with PX stuff back in 2002-2003.

I am just sticking a finger in the dike, awaiting someone (not me, my finger's busy!) to write a 2012 FAQ. We've got a few years. It'll happen.

[Larry Jacks]

When I read so many breathless "end of the world" predictions, I get the impression that some people seem to be looking forward to some gigantic disaster. It seems they actually want it to happen. If so, I can hardly imagine why.

[2001Intrepid]

On this website from Woods Hole is data on the position over time. Using the 2001 to 2005 data, I did a linear regression of latitude as a function of year. It was a pretty good fit (r^2 = 0.9976) and if I extrapolate it, the magnetic pole does not reach 90 degrees latitude till about 2026, not 2012.

While looking around for the data, I found this NASA link that talks about pole reversals.

Thanks Swift for doing the math. It's a lot more reassuring than what I heard on the video and seems to make more sense. Does anyone know where the rotational pole is now? Also I didn't know the U. of Hyderabad 's name was popping up at GLP-That is a rather telling sign in itself. They probably figure no one will ever be able to verify what a university in another country is doing! It kind of reminds me of the India Daily "news" reports that used to pop up-I think I remember seeing their name used in those. And it's, true, I couldn't think of any INTERNAL force that could flip the planet or catastrophically change it's magnetic field. It was good to have others check this out!

[01101001]

Does anyone know where the rotational pole is now?

Ever seen: INTERNATIONAL EARTH ROTATION & REFERENCE SYSTEMS SERVICE

[Swift]

When I read so many breathless "end of the world" predictions, I get the impression that some people seem to be looking forward to some gigantic disaster. It seems they actually want it to happen. If so, I can hardly imagine why.

One theory I've heard about this is that people who think this way expect/assume that they will be one of the few survivors. So it is a way to wipe out all "dem other people" and be a top dog in the group that's left behind. Cults that predict the coming end of the world or similar are particularly well known for this.

[Jerry]

Hmph. By that time, there will be at least three other "end of the world" stories running about, all pointing to some years ahead.

Stupidity never dies, it just changes bandwagons.

Fred

If the world ended...or if you died...how would you know the difference?

[Larry Jacks]

One theory I've heard about this is that people who think this way expect/assume that they will be one of the few survivors. So it is a way to wipe out all "dem other people" and be a top dog in the group that's left behind. Cults that predict the coming end of the world or similar are particularly well known for this.

I suspect that may be right. If someone is convinced that the world is totally screwed up but would be so much better if "the right people were in charge" (meaning them, of course), then the thought that getting rid of all those people who foolishly don't agree with them must be inviting. It's like that controversial topic of a scientist who reportedly wanted 90% of the Earth's population to die out. Of course, he was probably convinced that he would be among the 10% to survive, being such a good person and all.

Of course, there are exceptions like Heaven's Gate and the People's Temple cults. They ended up killing themselves.

[01101001]

It's like that controversial topic of a scientist who reportedly wanted 90% of the Earth's population to die out. Of course, he was probably convinced that he would be among the 10% to survive, being such a good person and all.

90%? A scientist? Was it the purported sentiment of the scientist in topic Doomsday Scientist (and other much earlier topics)? How do you go from a reported, not proven, desire -- quite a leap in itself -- to knowing probably what he was thinking about his own survival and own character?

[2001Intrepid]

Ever seen: INTERNATIONAL EARTH ROTATION & REFERENCE SYSTEMS SERVICE

...Actually no, but thanks for finding that. Now, if I could only figure out what the coordinates mean!

[2001Intrepid]

OK, I did find a couple of sites; for the South Pole:
http://www.aad.gov.au/default.asp?casid=1843
And for the north (though doesn't have the great drawing as the other website):
http://wikitravel.org/en/North_Pole


It seems the North geographic pole is more vague to locate than the South:
"Although there's more than one definition of "the North Pole", the most popularly accepted one is geographic: a fixed location in the northern hemisphere at the Earth's axis of rotation, latitude 90°N (longitude not applicable). Unlike the South Pole, which is located on the continent of Antarctica, the geographic North Pole is covered by nothing but a sheet of shifting ice on the surface of the Arctic Ocean. There is thus no permanent habitation nor even an official marker for the position, as the ice moves from year to year."

[Larry Jacks]

90%? A scientist? Was it the purported sentiment of the scientist in topic Doomsday Scientist (and other much earlier topics)? How do you go from a reported, not proven, desire -- quite a leap in itself -- to knowing probably what he was thinking about his own survival and own character?

Just an assumption based on experience dealing with holy-annointed types who believe their excrement has no odor.

[01101001]

Just an assumption based on experience dealing with holy-annointed types who believe their excrement has no odor.

OK. Thanks. I didn't realize it was your assumption. I think the "of course" probably threw me. If you're describing the probable mindset of someone, based on your assumptions, you might want to phrase it more tentatively to cue your readers -- especially when there's evidence lacking that the subject of the assumption, who "wanted 90% of the Earth's population to die out", even exists as described.

[Larry Jacks]

The word "probably" was a clue.

[2001Intrepid]

One theory I've heard about this is that people who think this way expect/assume that they will be one of the few survivors. So it is a way to wipe out all "dem other people" and be a top dog in the group that's left behind. Cults that predict the coming end of the world or similar are particularly well known for this.

I suspect that may be right. If someone is convinced that the world is totally screwed up but would be so much better if "the right people were in charge" (meaning them, of course), then the thought that getting rid of all those people who foolishly don't agree with them must be inviting. It's like that controversial topic of a scientist who reportedly wanted 90% of the Earth's population to die out. Of course, he was probably convinced that he would be among the 10% to survive, being such a good person and all.

Of course, there are exceptions like Heaven's Gate and the People's Temple cults. They ended up killing themselves.

Referring to above remarks...now I'm derailing my own thread, please pardon me, but it reminded me of this totally crackpot website-it's even hard to believe it's serious: http://www.mrinbetween.com/
This website is by one Lee Harrison, (whoever HE is), who maintains the the Earth will more or less explode itself in 2011 (why not 2012 I don't know) and we need to vote him in so we all be saved:

"Donating money to me for politics would be used to publish these pages in book form in favor of my military solution, because there is too little time left for the people and life in general to go on living on this planet after December 2011. Though a political solution was possible through democracy 10 years ago American people need me in power right away running their country as their leader as if by a Referendum on my right to Power by Default so I may take control of the system of power in America if the citizenship in America wants to live longer than 6 years, and get rich as a work force in control of their of their country and their future..."

And also: "In 2011 AD a worldwide earthquake will cause anarchy and chaos because of how long it will last, at the peak of global warming, from an iron ball the size of the moon filled with water and steam that will come crashing out of the top of the world like a wrecking ball on Christmas Eve when the Mayan calendar comes to an end and Jesus will return to the world in a rapture to take away a few people..." etc., etc.

Whew...reading that wesite is a hoot, and the so-called "science" involved is well, err, "partly digested male bovine biomass"...if I have gotten the term right!

[Larry Jacks]

I'm sure he'll gladly accept financial contributions to support his "run for office." Even if Barnum never said it, he seems to be operating on the principle of a sucker being born every minute.

[Donnie B.]

Yikes!

I'm actually afraid, very afraid, after reading a bit of that web site.

Not of the end of the world in December 2011 -- of Lee Harrison.

[Nowhere Man]

And also: "In 2011 AD a worldwide earthquake will cause anarchy and chaos because of how long it will last, at the peak of global warming, from an iron ball the size of the moon filled with water and steam that will come crashing out of the top of the world like a wrecking ball on Christmas Eve when the Mayan calendar comes to an end and Jesus will return to the world in a rapture to take away a few people..." etc., etc.

And he's got a political solution for THAT?

Fred