North Korea launches missile

[Celestial Mechanic]

I suspect that China may be losing their patience with North Korea. It would not surprise me one bit if they went in, turned out the two-bit tin-horn dictator with the bad hair and handed over the keys to Seoul. A stable trading partner would be a much better neighbor for China than the loose cannon they have now, ideology be damned. (And, let's face it, China is communist in name and governing style alone.)

[TheBlackCat]

I'm not sure they would vocally condemn North Korea, it would be a bad PR move after supporting them for so long, but I could easily see China simply refusing to help them anymore and quietly pushing for disarmament or vocally calling for comprimize in the talks they always seem to be a party to. I haven't heard of much support for North Korea from China lately, except of course for the standard "we will defend them if you attack" stance. But they don't seem to be standing by North Korea's antagonistic policies that much at this point (I am not sure how long this has been the case, I haven't been watching it that long).

China also has to be concerend with trade with both the US and Japan, both of which I believe are big trading partners and both of which (Japan especially) have something to fear from Northe Korea.

[Celestial Mechanic]

[Snip!] China also has to be concerned with trade with both the US and Japan, both of which I believe are big trading partners and both of which (Japan especially) have something to fear from North Korea.

Two more reasons (US and Japan) for China to dump North Korea.

[publius]

I disagree about China. They're playing a long term game to become the dominant power in the region. Don't think Pyonyang so much as sneezes without permission from Beijing. As far our and Japan's trade with them, well, they view that as confirmation of Lenin's old line that the capitalists will sell you the rope to hang them with.

North Korea is their little trained pit-bull that they sick on us from time to time when it suits their purposes. Once they gain what they after say in the form of concessions or deals from us in their favor, they pull back on the leash.

Their immediate goal is getting Taiwan back and I expect a few years down the road they'll manuever us into a choice between Taiwan and Korean War II, with nukes. Don't think for a second they aren't helping with their nuke program.

-Richard

[Jeff Root]

I wasn't concerned about an airliner being mistaken for an ICBM
in this case, but something more like North Korea's version of
Sputnik, Vanguard, Mercury-Redstone, or SpaceShip One.
They could be trying to do the same kind of thing the USA,
USSR, and China have done, for similar reasons.

-- Jeff, in Minneapolis

[Metricyard]

I wasn't concerned about an airliner being mistaken for an ICBM
in this case, but something more like North Korea's version of
Sputnik, Vanguard, Mercury-Redstone, or SpaceShip One.
They could be trying to do the same kind of thing the USA,
USSR, and China have done, for similar reasons.

-- Jeff, in Minneapolis

Considering that North Korea has been bragging about launching a multi-stage rocket for over a week now, and just lanuch one of them, plus 4 (or5, depending on which story you read)short range missles into the sea of Japan, I doubt they had scientific research in mind.

[Jens]

This is totally unsubstantiated rumor-mongering, so don't pay me much attention, but I've always wondered if one of the big military contractors isn't paying Kim Jong Il to launch missiles at critical times. There was another missile launched back in 2003, just as the Japanese government was wavering about whether to participate in the US missile defense program. After the launch, they said yes.

[jkmccrann]

I don't want to get too political about this, but I'd just like to point up some possible strategic consequences of a Korean reunification.

I suspect that China may be losing their patience with North Korea. It would not surprise me one bit if they went in, turned out the two-bit tin-horn dictator with the bad hair and handed over the keys to Seoul. A stable trading partner would be a much better neighbor for China than the loose cannon they have now, ideology be damned. (And, let's face it, China is communist in name and governing style alone.)

I seriously doubt this. Having the North Korean regime there is a definite benefit for the Chinese.

Currently, the presence of US forces in Japan & South Korea is justified (primarily) by the supposed threat from North Korea. This suits the US, and it also, even more so - because currently China is the weaker power, suits China.

What would happen were the Koreas to reunify? One of the first things you can bet on is that South Korea would ask the US forces to leave - afterall, North Korea is no longer there so what is the need to have US Forces stationed around Seoul? Why would South Korea want to harbour the forces of a foreign power with perhaps the only justification for the forces being that they may become involved in some sort of fracas over the issue of Taiwan.

Of course there is China next door, but if the US Forces were to remain in South Korea after a reunification, China could then justifiably ask why the US is trying to surround China, is that because the US regards China as its adversary?

It must be, there can be no other reason - and that could lead to an increased siege mentality in China and ensure their primary aim, post any reunification, is to boot the US Forces out of East Asia so they can stop meddling in (as they see it) internal Chinese affairs like Taiwan.

I'm not arguing the rights or wrongs of any of these positions, merely that though reunification of the Koreas sounds like a nice and progressive thing, there are a lot of strategic knock-ons and effects of that that will immediately come into play.

The primary one being the presence of US Forces in South Korea, and to a lesser extent Japan. If a reunification of the Koreas did lead to an eviction of the US Forces (which I think it inevitably would), but the retention of US Forces in Japan - that could lead to an increasing isolation of Japan from the rest of East Asia.

I have to ask, because it is similar, how many US Forces have been withdrawn from Western Europe since the end of the Cold War? Quite a significant majority would be a rough guess - and the difference with Europe is that there is not a country there on the fast-track to economic might right next door.

From those knock-ons, despite what everyone might say, North Korea is an important, though in itself irritating, strategic cog in the whole framework and will remain so as long as China remains the undemocratic communist power that it currently is. If China were to democratise the issue of North Korea would resolve within 5 years - no doubt, and maybe even the Taiwan issue could be satisfactorily resolved, but as long as there is such a thing as Communist China, despite what you might hear, I doubt North Korea will be going anywhere.

[Jeff Root]

I wasn't concerned about an airliner being mistaken for an ICBM
in this case, but something more like North Korea's version of
Sputnik, Vanguard, Mercury-Redstone, or SpaceShip One.
They could be trying to do the same kind of thing the USA,
USSR, and China have done, for similar reasons.

Considering that North Korea has been bragging about launching
a multi-stage rocket for over a week now, and just lanuch one
of them, plus 4 (or 5, depending on which story you read)
short range missles into the sea of Japan, I doubt they had
scientific research in mind.

Did you think I had scientific research in mind? Hardly.
Sputnik, Vanguard, Mercury, and SpaceShip One had little to
do with scientific research. Far more to do with engineering
research. But more importantly...

North Korea wants to launch stuff to show the world that they
are a major world power, an equal with China, Russia, the USA,
and countries like them there. They wanna show off that they
are Big Boys, with Big Boys' Toys. That doesn't give the USAF
moral grounds for shooting down the North Koreans' toys with
their own toys -- and the USAF knows it. It's even possible
that the president of the USA knows it, but I'm not going to go
out on a limb and make anything depend on such a possibility.

I wish I could be sure that nothing depends on it. Oh, my...

-- Jeff, in Minneapolis

[Nicolas]

7th missile launched, medium range (probably, range unknown)

[ASEI]

They'll have to do a whole lot better than that if we want decent targets for our missile defense. :-P

[Nicolas]

indeed, come on guys, this doesn't even qualify as a drone

[jt-3d]

I'm really curious what they are trying to do. Maybe they are celebrating the 4th of July a day late.

[parallaxicality]

It's really difficult to second-guess Kim Jong Il. I simply don't understand what his long-term goals are. Ultimately his goal appears to stay in power, but for what? His country is a famished husk, his regime only exists because China lets it, and its infrastructure depends on South Korean aid. What is he hoping to achieve?

[Nicolas]

You know those people who teamkill in CounterStrike, because they enjoy winding up other people and people being mad at them, while it leads them to nothing in the long term? That's their way to have an influence on people and get attention. This is what happens when such a character becomes a leader.

[V-GER]

Clearly he wants to keep the Kim family in charge of the country for years to come and having a nuke with missiles to carry it enables them to do so.

Of course, one or two nukes won't probably be enough of a deterrent forever.

[gwiz]

7th missile launched, medium range (probably, range unknown)

The question arises - how many have they got left?

[Nicolas]

Is there any proof of them having nuclear weapons (even dirty bombs) or reasons to assume this is indeed the case?

[V-GER]

They claim so themselves but the closest thing to proof I've heard about is some US estimates that they may have a few. However, there's no conclusive proof.

[Nicolas]

ok.

Whether they have nukes or not of course does open/close some possibilities for reactions.

[Argos]

I think we shouldn´t belittle the N. Korean tests. Has it failed? Well, that´s what tests are for. Also, I think liquid fuel technology is not for everyone, and it is remarkable that they managed to fire a big liquid fuel rocket that didn´t explode on the launch pad.

[parallaxicality]

I don't believe anything North Korea says, but when it comes to nukes, it's best to err on the side of caution.

[Nicolas]

Indeed.

[parallaxicality]

http://www.nk-news.net/index.php

Check this out. A blogger made a searchable database of news articles from North Korea's state controlled media. It's a riot.

My favourite bit so far is the News Agency's insistence that all dates since 1912 (the year of Kim Il Sung's birth) be written as "Juche 50" (1961) or "Juche 94" (2006). "Juche" is the marvellously euphonious word meaning "self-reliance" (ha ha) that forms the cornerstone of DPRK ideology. There is, apparently, no "before juche", and the old imperialist dating system must be used instead.

[Nicolas]

North Korea may launch more missiles in the coming hours, U.S. and Australian officials warned today

(cnn)

I left the rest out in order to stay away as much as possible from the political side of the discussion.

[Celestial Mechanic]

I don't want to get too political about this, but I'd just like to point up some possible strategic consequences of a Korean reunification.

I suspect that China may be losing their patience with North Korea. It would not surprise me one bit if they went in, turned out the two-bit tin-horn dictator with the bad hair and handed over the keys to Seoul. A stable trading partner would be a much better neighbor for China than the loose cannon they have now, ideology be damned. (And, let's face it, China is communist in name and governing style alone.)

I seriously doubt this. Having the North Korean regime there is a definite benefit for the Chinese.

And this "benefit" is?

Currently, the presence of US forces in Japan & South Korea is justified (primarily) by the supposed threat from North Korea. This suits the US, and it also, even more so - because currently China is the weaker power, suits China.

Not sure why this suits China.

What would happen were the Koreas to reunify? One of the first things you can bet on is that South Korea would ask the US forces to leave -- after all, North Korea is no longer there so what is the need to have US Forces stationed around Seoul? Why would South Korea want to harbour the forces of a foreign power with perhaps the only justification for the forces being that they may become involved in some sort of fracas over the issue of Taiwan?

China replaces a useless dead weight of a client state with a reliable, stable trading partner, and American troop presence on the Asian continent is reduced if not eliminated. What's not to like?

And doing the "favor" of reuniting Korea gives China the needed brownie points to press for a certain "favor" in return.

[Metricyard]

China replaces a useless dead weight of a client state with a reliable, stable trading partner, and American troop presence on the Asian continent is reduced if not eliminated. What's not to like?

I have to agree. North Korea really is of no benefit to China, as far as I can see. Removing the current leaders would be a major boon for China. I'm sure that China would love to have new area to exploit for cheap labor. Not to mention that South Korea and Japan would love to see a more stable government in the area. Not to mention a new laborforce to exploit.:surprised

[ToSeek]

Discussion of China - North Korea relations is not appropriate to this forum (and this whole topic is borderline). Please try to keep the discussion confined to the facts and the technical issues. Thanks.

[dgavin]

Sydney Morning Herald has reported a 7th missle launch late yesterday, the 3rd of the ICBM range missles to be fired, in a so called test. It also failed.

So far it's a reported tally of 4-5 Scud type missiles and 3-2 ICBM type missles. The later which all have failed.

The US N.B.C. (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) Reponse Team was activated for the first time since the cuban missle crisis. People that were part of that team were called into service yesterday afternoon, being asked to pack and given a ticket to their meeting location.

The western sates ABM defence system has been activated and is on full alert.

Norad has placed the military on an alert condition called Blue something or other (which corralates to the cold war Defcon 4). Basically it means our missiles have been fueled and preped for launch, and bomber and submarine crews activated.

If once of those ICBM's of NK comes within 100 miles of our country (test missile or not), we will probably counter launch some of ours. Best speculation is about 7 ICBM's of ours would be launched with 5 MIRV's each (35 warheads)

Seems to me we are at a state of war with NK at this point, defensive for our part. But if NK doesn't stop thier so called testing they will likely regret it if one of those ICBM's gets too close.

[Ara Pacis]

CNN showed some ABM missiles being loaded into silos in Alaska. They appeared to be about the same size as US ICBMs. It made me wonder if there is a possibility that Russia might mistake multiple ABM launches as ICBM launches by the US. A successful Taepodong II launch might force such measures and accidentally result in a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia.

Of course, Russia is aware of the situation and would probably not mistake an ABM launch for an ICBM launch. However, Russia might use the DPRK and US launches as tests for their systems (calibration of equipment, response times of people) and this might, however unlikely, result in an ICBM launch order in error. Does anyone know how possible it is for a drill to accidentally result in a real launch?