North Korea launches missile

[Ara Pacis]

Ok, the news reporter suggested that maybe they launched something into space, as opposed to a nuclear warhead at the US. I figure we've got about 25 minutes to discuss the possibility that it's a space vehicle if it's not. So, what do you guys think NK would launch into space?

[Stealth Poster]

So, what do you guys think NK would launch into space?

our glorious leader Kim Jong Il

[Ara Pacis]

two missiles now.

[Ara Pacis]

Make that 3 missiles now. Maybe they're trying to make a constellation.

edit: first two were short range, most recent is the long range missile capable of reaching the continental US.

[Stealth Poster]

Make that 3 missiles now. Maybe they're trying to make a constellation.

Probably they are showing of

[Argos]

edit: first two were short range, most recent is the long range missile capable of reaching the continental US.

Boy, this is serious.

[Ara Pacis]

Something went wrong with the long range missile, the Taepodong II, I think. Maybe the US tested the Airborn Laser...

[Stealth Poster]

Something went wrong with the long range missile, the Taepodong II, I think. Maybe the US tested the Airborn Laser...

Do not worry, they can try again and do better

[Ara Pacis]

4th missile has been launched by NK towards Japan.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Okay, so what makes North Korea think this is a good idea? What is the BEST outcome of this? Idiots.

[Ara Pacis]

Is the shuttle or ISS flying over NK in the near future?

[The Supreme Canuck]

I doubt that they could do anything to either. And if they did, imagine the problems it would cause them. Both are definitively civilian targets.

[Stealth Poster]

I doubt that they could do anything to either.

Many countries will keep them as consultants if they can

[Stealth Poster]

Okay, so what makes North Korea think this is a good idea? What is the BEST outcome of this? Idiots.

From viewpoint of North Korea, the best outcome is the other countries will pay them to behave well

[The Supreme Canuck]

Many countries will keep them as consultants if they can

No, if they prove that they can damage the space shuttle (actually doing it would be the easiest way to prove it), they are in essence declaring war on the United States. Bad move. Very, very bad move.

From viewpoint of North Korea, the best outcome is the other countries will pay them to behave well

I agree. The likely outcome, though, is that they are shunned even more by the international community.

[Ara Pacis]

A NORAD source (via CNN) says that it has been watching NK intently over the last few weeks and was not surprised by the launches. They also said their systems were up and ready to respond incase anything approached the US. Draw your own conclusion.

[The Supreme Canuck]

Yeah, that's where the smart money's at.

[Ara Pacis]

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/tracking/

Looks like the orbiter and ISS will both pass near NK in a couple orbits.

[Stealth Poster]

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/tracking/

Looks like the orbiter and ISS will both pass near NK in a couple orbits.

So they can have a good view if there are more launches

[Ken G]

The timing isn't very intelligent. They are helping the most hard-line anti-NK candidates win the November US elections. That's the Congress they'll be dealing with down the road. Idiots.

[Blob]

There is a US navel exercise just off the coast, and interestingly there is a Russian military land exercise happening nearby as well. The launch may be a reaction to them.
If so, then the hard-line anti-NK candidates probably would want to hold another such exersise then as well - just to make sure.

[Ara Pacis]

CNN source said that the 2 short range Scud-C/Nodongs that landed in the Sea of Japan were odd. One landed close to Japan and the other landed close to Russia. I'm not sure why that is odd, but the source thought it might be a targetability issue (good or bad I'm not sure). Where were the US and Russian military exercizes? Were they trying to provoke a Russian and/or Japanese reaction?

The NE direction might correspond with a great circle route to a US target. The first two short range launches may have been red-herrings to test US countermeasures.

BTW, they say the T-2 failed at about 50 seconds. This would be too soon for a ABM missile-to-missile intercept as sources have stated. However, I think that might be within the envelope of an ABL.

[Blob]

The US exercises were around the `Pacific Rim`, though reading between the lines it was cleary aimed, imho, at the Korean region. The Russian exercises were along the northern borders, perhaps as a response to/ or with, the US exercises.

Satellite imagery of the Assembly Building at the Musudan-ri Missile Test Facility.
Latitude: 40°51' 17 N. (40.855809) Longitude: 129°39' 58 E. (129.659357)
A coastal missile test site used for launch of long-range missile tests over the Pacific, and North Korea's space launch vehicle.

[snarkophilus]

edit: first two were short range, most recent is the long range missile capable of reaching the continental US.

From what I've heard over the past few weeks, no one really believes it could hit the lower 48. Hawaii, and possibly a bit of Alaska (right at the edge of its range).

Not sure whether or not to believe this:
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nati...7272311970.htm
It claims that in 2003 that a NK test warhead made it to Alaska.

[Ara Pacis]

It sounds like the 4th missile report may have been false... However, NORAD (via CNN) seems to be confirming that a 4th missile has been launched in the last 15 minutes.

[Ara Pacis]

White House now confirms that NK has launched 6 missiles, including a second long-range missile.

Tally:
4 SCUD-C/Nodong
2 Taepodong II

[Swordfish]

I'm hearing either five or six missiles at the moment were fired. From three different accounts (2 separate CNN sources and ABC News) all of them say that only one was the Taepodong-2, which failed somewhere around 50 seconds after firing. The military says that there was no threat from the smaller ones, and the Taepodong malfunctioned so quickly that no action had to be taken.

I would, however, like to note that 50 seconds into launch seems to be the perfect time to use this thing: http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/abl/.

Was it used? Probably not. I imagine that missile failed because it was poorly built. However, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if that was, in fact, used. Perfect chance to test it.

[TheBlackCat]

I would probably be more concerned if Northe Korea actually had a warhead to go with the missiles.

[Jeff Root]

I would be extremely surprised if the US Air Force Airborne Laser
was used. It would mean that the Air Force knew ahead of time
when North Korea was going to launch, and exactly what North
Korea was going to be launching, and in which direction. They
would not want to shoot at something unless they were certain
they knew exactly what they were shooting at.

We already had at least one mess with KAL 007 in the early
1980s, and I'm sure there have been others. I think the USAF
learned from that incident even though it was someone else
who made the mistake and someone else who was shot down.

-- Jeff, in Minneapolis

[Ara Pacis]

NORAD confirmed that they had been looking at the area "intensely" over the last few weeks. The missile takes time to fuel so they probably could guess when it would be ready for launch and have an ABL on station for a test. They could probably detect a launch from an airliner because airliners don't fly straight up at supersonic speeds. A White House source said that they or NORAD were watching the tests in real-time.