Math check for Homeopathic medicine please...

[grant hutchison]

But regardless of whether the bias comes from the practitioners or the journals, the presence of a significant bias to not advertise null results leads to a skewing of the statistical significance of the positive results

Also, lack of rigour in study design can introduces sources of bias, confounding and cointervention, all of which can lead to positive results for reasons other than a real difference between placebo and study drug.
It's a big problem for mainstream medicine generally, and the journal editors and their referees should be weeding out studies with poor design, so that they don't reach the literature. (In fact, medical research ethics committees are also taking a role, by refusing to allow patients to be enrolled in studies that are badly designed.) However, this doesn't happen perfectly, by any means: and there are particular issues with the scientific skills of both the researchers and the editors of journals dealing with "alternative medicine" themes.
So that's another reason that anyone who wishes to make a superficial case for homeopathy can find plenty of statistically significant results to point at.

Grant Hutchison

[Ken G]

Yeah, medical experiments are about the toughest of all to interpret. I often see reports that sound to me like "studies show that people who shoot themselves in the head with real bullets are up to three times more likely to die than those who use blanks". All you can take away are "bullets are dangerous", but how this translates into action items for the individual is never so clear! I find that doctors often have a good perspective on what are the things that matter, but perhaps their views can get skewed as well.

[John Dlugosz]

There are studies which appear to show homeopathy does work, published in reputable mainstream medical and scientific journals. Simply saying "no evidence" will immediately embroil you in a paper-by-paper running battle with homeopathy proponents. So while in no way disagreeing with your point that evidence of efficacy is very poor, I think arguments from the absence of a plausible mechanism (evolutionary, physical or chemical) are still valuable additions to our armamentarium.

Grant Hutchison

So hurry and send it to JREF for the million-dollar prize!

[John Dlugosz]

That's quite an interesting suggestion. Note that we do at present have a ritual-- I'm gonna guess it looks like a person in a bathroom with a handful of multicolored pills and a stark glass of water, throwing their head back. Choke, gurgle. Not exactly aromatherapy, is it?

A while back I saw a show where they were investigating effects of placebos, and found that something that sometimes worked would enhance the effect and express it in more people.

Many years ago I discovered that for myself. Eating a sandwich, I bit my cheek the likes of which I had never done before or since. Boy, did that hurt, and it hurt for weeks. I applied a topical agent for the pain, frequently. I discovered that after the effect began to fade, simply rubbing it without putting a drop on my finger first would have an effect, which was obviously due to re-distributing what was already there. But after a while I seemed to develop an ability to reduce the pain really by rubbing it alone, to some degree. Using the placebo effect allowed me to reduce the amount of pain medicine needed.

[grant hutchison]

So hurry and send it to JREF for the million-dollar prize!

For all the reasons we've been discussing on this thread relating to study design, bias and lack of mechanism, there's no reason JREF would cough up the money.

But after a while I seemed to develop an ability to reduce the pain really by rubbing it alone, to some degree. Using the placebo effect allowed me to reduce the amount of pain medicine needed.

That's not necessarily a placebo effect: it's more likely a real bit of neurology called "counter-irritation". Rubbing or heating sore areas does make them hurt less - it's the principle behind the use of TENS (Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation) for the relief of pain.

Grant Hutchison

[Ken G]

Or rubbing your head after you bonk it. That works pretty well too!

[snarkophilus]

Or rubbing your head after you bonk it. That works pretty well too!

Or even having your mommy kiss it better.

[Ken G]

Now that's what I call a home-opathic remedy.

[JohnD]

All,
Strange reflection of Homeopathy today in New Scientist: http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...25402.300.html

The 'heat' of a pepper is measured in 'Scoville Heat Units' (SHU). This means the number of times an original pepper solution must be diluted before its burning taste disappears. SHUs vary from about 3000 for a jalapeno to an Indian chilli, naga jolokia, at 580,000!

John

[Gillianren]

All,
Strange reflection of Homeopathy today in New Scientist: http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...25402.300.html

The 'heat' of a pepper is measured in 'Scoville Heat Units' (SHU). This means the number of times an original pepper solution must be diluted before its burning taste disappears. SHUs vary from about 3000 for a jalapeno to an Indian chilli, naga jolokia, at 580,000!

Actually, the bell pepper (which is, yes, just a very large chile) has a SHU of 0. That's the lowest end of the scale.

[01101001]

Found a fun table that lists not just hot chillis:

100,000 Thai Pepper
200,000 Jamaican Hot Pepper
325,000 Scotch Bonnet Pepper
350,000 Habanero Pepper
580,000 Red Savina Habanero
855,000 Naga Jolokia
2,000,000 Common Pepper Spray
5,300,000 Police-Grade Pepper Spray
16,000,000 Pure Capsaicin

[Relmuis]

That shows that a D6, C3 or M2 dilution can (in this case at least) even have an allopathic effect, which suggests that even more diluted preparations might still have a homeopathic effect.

[Laguna]

I have proof for the effectiveness of homeopathic pharmaceuticals.
My health insurance pays them.

[grant hutchison]

That shows that a D6, C3 or M2 dilution can (in this case at least) even have an allopathic effect, which suggests that even more diluted preparations might still have a homeopathic effect.

Unless you believe that "homeopathic effect" is an oxymoron, of course.

Grant Hutchison

[JohnD]

Your health insurance pays for homeopathic treatment, laguna?
That's nothing! The NHS has just authorised magnets for treating varicose ulcers. Our wonderful, cost effective NHS. I give up.
See: http://www.badscience.net/?p=221

John

[John Dlugosz]

All,
Strange reflection of Homeopathy today in New Scientist: http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...25402.300.html

The 'heat' of a pepper is measured in 'Scoville Heat Units' (SHU). This means the number of times an original pepper solution must be diluted before its burning taste disappears. SHUs vary from about 3000 for a jalapeno to an Indian chilli, naga jolokia, at 580,000!

John

That is nowhere near homeopathic dilutions. Pure capsaicin would read 15-16 mega Scoville units. 15 units is 1 part per million. That means if you prepare a homeopathic solution of capsaicin to "X4" (4 successive dilutions of 10:1) or "C2" (2 dilutions of 100:1) you will be in the same ballpark as Jalapeño. 200ppm is certainly a normal useful concentration of a medical substance.

--John

[Relmuis]

One part in 580.000 is nearly D6, C3 or M2.

[John Dlugosz]

One part in 580.000 is nearly D6, C3 or M2.

True, but "1 part in 580000" is not the same as 580000 Scoville units. The latter is one part in 26 or 27.

[Relmuis]

...'Scoville Heat Units' (SHU). This means the number of times an original pepper solution must be diluted before its burning taste disappears....
John

What is a Scoville Heat Unit then? Isn't X Scovile units a dilution by X parts?

[John Dlugosz]

What is a Scoville Heat Unit then? Isn't X Scovile units a dilution by X parts?

No, it means you have to dilute it by X to make it disappear.

[Gillianren]

A Quick Summary of the Scoville Scale's Inception

See, Scoville got a bunch of volunteers--students, I believe--to taste mashed-up peppers. He then recorded how many squirts of sugar water it took before the burning sensation went away. One squirt=one SHU. Bell peppers aren't that spicy, so it took zero squirts. Hence, a bell pepper is at 0 SHU. I imagine they went through quite a lot of squirt bottles on the hotter chilis.

[Relmuis]

So somebody received 540,000 squirts of water? In that case, I find it a suspiciously round number.

[grant hutchison]

So somebody received 540,000 squirts of water? In that case, I find it a suspiciously round number.

I think Gillianren may be going astray, here. At one squirt a second, it would take several days to perform this experiment!
Scoville used a dilution scale, with 1.5 Scoville units corresponded to one part per million of ground chillies. 580,000 units is therefore the equivalent of 390,000 parts per million of ground chillies. Pure capsaicin scores 15,000,000 Scoville units, which converts to a ludicrous 10,000,000 parts per million: indicating that raw capsaicin is 10 times more intense than the raw chilli powder Scoville used. So 580,000 Scoville units is equivalent to 39,000 parts per million of capsaicin, or a 1:26 dilution, which is where I think John Dlugosz is getting his figure.
All this would imply that capsaicin is detectable down to about a 1:10,000,000 dilution: about 10 µg/dl, which is within the usual range for mainstream drugs and hormones.

The round numbers arise because Scoville units come in mutiples of 100, and not all chillies and people are alike, so greater precision is spurious.

Grant Hutchison

[Gillianren]

Hey, I'm just citing Alton Brown, here. The chili (with an "i") episode. Any details I get wrong I do because he did. (He probably simplified for a TV audience.)

[Chuck]

http://www.ntskeptics.org/cartoons/homeopathy.gif