Established Member
Hurricane Wilma has now become the second most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, tying the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and behind only Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Year 2005 is first with three recorded Category 5 hurricanes (plus Emily was almost Category 5). Who could have believed that Katrina is now only the third most intense Atlantic hurricane of this year!
Hard to see how it could develop withoud causing massive destruction to anyone.
Order of Kilopi
its global warming surpise surprise, and all those politicians thought that they would all be dead before the dung hit the fan.
Established Member
I am not a global warming denier, but I think it is a bit premature to decide that THIS year's hurricane barrage was all of a sudden due to global warming. If next year we don't get a pile of them, should we assume global warming went away? It might be a contributing factor, but I don't believe that the temperature of the earth went up a whole lot since last year.
Like El Nino, this too will pass. Global warming - or not ( I don't care to argue the issue) - is a more fundamental thing than this year's weather.
Established Member
Wilma is now the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin ever measured!
Member
Wilma, 3rd Category 5 storm of this year .Katrina is now only the third most intense Atlantic hurricane of this year!
My God! I cant imagine the destruction it perhaps cause.
Order of Kilopi
At the moment, Wilma seems to be heading for the west coast of southern Florida.
http://headlines.accuweather.com/new...er=1&article=0
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/10/19/wilma/index.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9710472/
Dave Mitsky
Order of Kilopi
I´m appalled by the pressure readings (884mb).
Established Member
I dread to think what would happen if Wilma made it's way in the direction of New Orleans after brushing South-Western Florida. Would that be game over for the Crescent City?
Member
Originally Posted by Enzp
Hmm, the real problem here is that if this extraordinary hurricane activity is down to global warming, then the time for debate has well and truely passed, and action is called for. Of course to some the cure is worse than the disease.
Established Member
Not to diminish the potential impact of Wilma (a storm this strong this late in the season is unique) but a look a the prediction from the National Hurricane Center paints a damaging, but not apocalyptic, scenario. They project that the storm will weaken to a Cat 3 as it passes through the strait between Cuba and the Yucatan. The strongest winds will stay at sea near the eye and miss both land masses. The storm will veer northeast and hit pass over Florida just south of Lake Okechobee and continue on into the Atlantic. Given that path it's very unlikely to reach New Orleans. The danger to that city, and the rest of the north Gulf coast, would come if the storm changed path now, went straight north, and missed southern Florida entirely.
On the other hand, they didn't predict Wilma would strengthen this quickly, so the forcast could change. Keep connected and keep your heads low around Coral Gables.
"I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - William Thompson, 1st Baron Lord Kelvin
"If it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be, but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic!" - Tweedledee
This isn't right. This isn't even wrong. - Wolfgang Pauli
Order of Kilopi
Well, I'l start preperations today. For those who remember Charlie last year, Charlie was predicted to go in south of Tampa Bay (where I live) and Charlie went in about where Wilma is predicted to go(~80 south of us) . Since Charlie missed by that much, I'm not going to bet my house on whether Wilma will go as predicted. On the bright side, the gulf temprature north of the Cuba-Yucatan line is cooler than the earlier storms.
Established Member
This explosive deepening is not wholly unexpected given the extremely small inner core of this system. The eye is only about 4 miles in diameter, which is very small, thus the energy is very concentrated. Despite the 175 mph core winds, the hurricane force winds themselves extend out only about 15 nm from the center. That said, it is still very dangerous, but fortunately it is expected to stay over water for the next couple of days, and should weaken as it encounters increasing mid-level winds.
Administrator
It's got to be harrowing living along the Southeast US this year. How many times have people needed to board up their houses and prepare to evacuate?
Order of Kilopi
So far once in any given area, though if Wilma veers south parts of Key West may have to make preparations for a second time. The hurricanes were more spread out this year, remember that last year Florida was hit by four hurricanes!
Established Member
I know this is super weather nerd stuff, but if one loops the track of Wilma over the last 12 hours or so, you will see one of the best examples of trochoidal oscillation I've ever seen.
Established Member
Why are the news stations whining that "...it's hard to imagine a hurricane stronger than Katrina or Rita..." ?
What are the people in this country thinking? Are they that sheltered? Or are they that ignorant?
In the numerous times I've done even the most cursory research into my own states history, the long litany of truly catastrophic weather debacles is an unavoidable highlight. And that's NEW JERSEY!...not a state known for regularly rough weather.
This collective short-term memory loss that afflicts the US is disgraceful. Now combine that with a severe lack of perspective and no real forward-thinking capacity. The "news" outlets desperate scramble to find a way to top their own superlative-exhausting sturm-und-drang coverage of Katrina(..and non-starter Rita!)almost outstinks their years-long, flag-in-hand, platitudinal editorializing after September 11th.
Hurricanes are rough. Duh! Bad hurricanes are...well..bad. Duh! But to pretend that we're all witness to a paradigm shifting, precedent shattering event EVERY TIME, is just plain ludicrous. Obviously it paints the harpies right into a corner. I would guess that few of these saps have ever been caught in any real storms, like one at sea. Now that's terror.
Just my two cents.
at current worth...1 penny and 2 pieces of lint
Established Member
Is true that Wilma intense hurricane. Suggestion for global warming is premature. Period for Accurate measure less then 60 year. Hurricanes of Wilma size occur for past 100 year. Can not know if Wilma stronger records not accurate. Atlantic and Caribbean show history for intense hurricanes. Spanish lose much treasure from past hurricanes.
Vulcan Administrator
I think that's a chronic problem with news in general. They think that unless they call every storm a potential disaster no one will bother to watch. Then when something really serious comes along, no one pays attention.
Everything I need to know I learned through Googling.
Established Member
It appears that Wilma has weakened a bit now, which is not surprising. The system will likely undergo eyewall replacement cycles which will cause fluctuations in strength. It is very hard for hurricanes to maintain this kind of strength for long.
Established Member
Few things to note: If I understood correctly, the record-low central pressure of 882 mbar was confirmed. Secondly, I used the words 'recorded' and 'measured'. Atlantic Ocean has existed well over 100 million years, so there is a slight change that there have been a few more intense hurricanes that went unnoticed. Thirdly, Wilma is actually very small hurricane. At one phase, hurricane-level winds reached only about 24 km from the center. The eye of the storm is also tiny, although it is now widening. So, it is intense hurricane, but small in size.
(fixed number)
Established Member
No, global warming has very little to do with this. Hurricane activity comes and goes in cycles. Warming seas may support more intense hurricanes in larger areas, but any change will take a long time to become noticeable.
Order of Kilopi
And I'm flying to Tampa on Monday to close on a house sale, close on a house buy, and help my brother move. Hope the insurance is paid up on both places.
Established Member
Measure and record only useful for last 60 year. Can speculate for last 100 million year. Cannot use quantative comparison except on last 60 year.
Established Member
I'm assuming you're talking about the cycloid-like motion of the inner eye inside what appears to be a slighltly larger outer eye-wall. I'm not a weather nerd, but I did find it neat.
"I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - William Thompson, 1st Baron Lord Kelvin
"If it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be, but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic!" - Tweedledee
This isn't right. This isn't even wrong. - Wolfgang Pauli
Established Member
Yes, althought not the inner eye with respect to an outer eye, but just the eye itself as discernable on satellite loop. (it's usually quite difficult to detect an outer eyewall feature via satellite.)
Established Member
It was an attempt of sarcasm. I meant exactly what you wrote.
Established Member
I've seen a lot of news reports about what Wilma "might" do if it were to hit a US area like New Orleans, but why I can't seem to find more than one paragraph about what it already has done in the Carribean? Or doesn't that count in terms of news?
Order of Kilopi
Wilma has not hit any Carribean islands, although the Cayman Islands was watching it closely. Wilma is projected to go in between Mexico and the western tip of Cuba so hopefully it won't veer off projections and hit either of them. After that it's on to Florida unfortunately.
Established Member
Fair enough then, I'll pack the soapbox awayWilma has not hit any Carribean islands, although the Cayman Islands was watching it closely. Wilma is projected to go in between Mexico and the western tip of Cuba so hopefully it won't veer off projections and hit either of them. After that it's on to Florida unfortunately.
Established Member
It is a threat to well-known areas such as Cozumel and Cancun.
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