Has anyone ever come up with a way to evacuate large numbers of people from a large from a large metro area on relatively short notice? Would a monorail type of system work? Rail lines? A blimp?
Established Member
Has anyone ever come up with a way to evacuate large numbers of people from a large from a large metro area on relatively short notice? Would a monorail type of system work? Rail lines? A blimp?
Order of Kilopi
I'd be hesitant to rely on a monorail for emergency work (unless you meant elevated rail, as in Chicago? Even then, I'd have the same issues.)Originally Posted by banquo's_bumble_puppy
A subway system (with connections to overland rail) wouldn't be a bad way to go about it. You can move a lot of people that way if you can coordinate traffic effectively. Although again, you're putting most of your eggs in a relatively few fragile baskets. A failure at any point would prevent anyone behind it from escaping.
The only reliable way I can think of would be an overdevelopped highway system. Several ways in and out of town, with mass transit (busses! and rail) organized to move those without cars.
Just my common sense talking. That and a few bucks will net you a box of Timbits[tm].
Order of Kilopi
Banned
In Brazil they have a good way of clearing out prisons.
Established Member
IIRC, Cuba managed to evacuate large numbers of people last year when it was hit by the hurricane(s).
Amazing what a totalitarian state can do eh?
There just isn't a way of "enforcing" a mandatory evacuation alert in the US or Canada.
Banned
I think it is a cultural thing.
THe fault lies in the culture of New Orleans.
Here is something that supports that comment:
I have heard from some Vietnamese people who lived in New Orleans and they tell me that it has nothing to do with rich or poor or black or white; everyone in the Vietnamese culture in New Olreans got out when the president urged all citizens to seek higher ground.
BTW, the Brazilian method I mentioned earlier would not work at all in our culture. You wouldn't understand uless you have been there. I have been there and lots of other places overseas. I think if Katrina hit Campos Dois Goytacasas, RJ, and if President Lula Di Silva urged everyone to leave 36 hours prior. NOONE would be in that city. Compare that to New Orleans where there are still people refusing to leave their houses eventhough it is sitting in a virtual toilet-world.
Am I calling Americans, lazy and uneducated? No. It is just a cultural thing.
If a hurrican hit Kalamata in the Pelloponese island of Greece and the people had a 36 hour warning ahead of time, I also think noone would be in that city. Why? Because I know those people too. I have heard pheonominal stories of survival from those people and what they had to go through to survive the Nazis and starvation.
To a large extent, the people in the New Orleans culture could not cut it, I think.
Order of Kilopi
The City of New Orleans could have evacuated a lot of people right before the storm by means of city buses and school buses, but the big problem was that there was no specific place to take them out of town. There was no system set up to house and feed all those people once they were driven out of town in buses.
It would have probably been better if they had driven a lot of people out toward Baton Rouge and just parked on the side of the interstate, but we know that now.
One time, years ago, the National Weather Service warned everyone to evacuate out of a state (I think it was South Carolina) and most people did. Then the hurricane turned north and went back out to sea and didn't hit the state. The next day Dan Rather was on CBS chewing out the head guy at the National Hurricane Center for giving the public "wrong" information which caused a lot of people to go to a lot of trouble to evacuate even though no storm hit. I thought Rather was really rude in doing that and what he said would discourage future evacuations when they were really needed.
The city of New orleans and state of Louisiana just had no active evacuation or emergency plans, and the feds were prepared to go in only after several days of organizing the efforts.
In a big situation like this, involving a big city and a lot of people, there are many government agencies involved, and also several different government entities, such as city, state, several different counties, and different federal agencies. It’s very difficult to get all these different groups to work together quickly.
The same thing might happen if San Francisco is hit by a big earthquake so that the Golden Gate Bridge and Oakland Bay Bridge collapse. That would leave just a few roads and highways going South, and they might be damaged too. That would leave nearly a million people stuck inside an already-overcrowded city, and of course they won’t have any advanced notice at all.
Established Member
Nuclear weapons = Instant results.
Established Member
Evacuation, not Evaporation. Close, but no cigar. :P
Order of Kilopi
Would you elaborate?
Banned
Anos há que eu me ouvi de uma época em que os lugares fossem inundados.
The origional poster did not mention if moving living people was a condition.
:P
But on a serious and more positive note, I have heard of a city in the south that has a transportation system that is the envy of the world. It is very organized and more efficient. I will ask Minya Esposa about it tonight. And I will elaborate later.
(no, it is not for prisoners. I am the first to notice that the OP did not mention that the people to be moved had to be alive. I guess noone else knew about the news story of how they make more room in the prisons when overcrowding is a problem)
Last edited by William_Thompson; 2005-Sep-12 at 07:52 PM. Reason: terrible spelling
Moderator
NO and LA did have an evacuation plan and did use it. Shelters were set up in Baton Rouge for those leaving NO; the Superdome was established as a shelter-in-place for those staying. The real problems were the wind damage to the 'dome and the flooding that followed; these forced the evacuation of many more people than anticipated, and made relief and/or evacuation more difficult.
No government official wants to order an evacuation, voluntary or (gulp) mandatory. They will wait as long as possible because of the fallout if there turns out to have been no need to evacuate. Also harder to get them to leave the next time.
As for how to evacuate - assuming someone is willing to make that decision in time - the best way is probably buses, and the absolute banning of private cars. Houston probably has more highway miles per capita than any other city except Los Angeles; during the last mass evacuation, the highways were jammed solid. It took over 12 hours for folks to make it from Galveston to Huntsville, normally a 90 minute drive. And this was not a mandatory evac except for parts of Galveston County.
As soon as a mandatory evacuation is called - 24 hours from landfall, make everyone leave their cars behind, carry what they can, and bus them out. Arrange for trucks to haul the pets. (My wife and I have an arrangement; when a sizable storm is 48 hours away, she packs up the kids and pets and hauls tail. At 24 hours out, I follow, and I'll gladly go by bus.)
Of course, the next Big Question is, where the heck do you take all those folks?
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
Isaac Asimov
Moderation will be in purple.
Rules for Posting to This Board
Banned
The President is to blame for the worst hurricane to hit the Gulf. He should not have been so concerned about international affairs.
That is right.
If President McKinnley was not so involved in the 100 day war in Cuba, the Hurricane that hit Galviston in 1900 would not have killed 6,000 people.
:P
Dibs!
If you use this line, make sure you quote me and this website!
Last edited by William_Thompson; 2005-Sep-12 at 07:47 PM. Reason: Dibs! If you use this line, make sure you quote me.
Order of Kilopi
I'm just curious about the rationale here, but why do you not "haul tail" with your family?
Moderator
My job requires that I be on site overseeing hurricane preparations by my contractors until about 24 hours before landfall.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
Isaac Asimov
Moderation will be in purple.
Rules for Posting to This Board
Established Member
Whever there is a massive emergency that requires everyone out of a city, why then do people still only use one side of the road? No-one is going to go into the city, so by using the extra lanes you can double the number of people being evacuated. I saw this in footage of the evacuation in NO, on side of the freeway was packed, and there was a single car on the inbound lanes.
Order of Kilopi
That was only in some cases. They did have a counter-flow traffic plan in place for the evacuation.
Order of Kilopi
Makes sense. Thanks for answering.
Newbie
How about using school buses, given that you didn't let them all turn into submarines.
Newbie
With all due respect...
I have to disagree with you...
The mayor of N.O. waited too long to call for an evacuation, plain and simple.
Max Mayfield (National Hurricane Center Director) personally called the Mayor of N.O., the Govenor of LA, and the Govenor of MS, to "BEG THEM TO EVACUATE PERSONS WHO ARE POSSIBLY IN THE PATH OF KATRINA" on Saturday 8/27/05 10pm. The hurricane struck 8/29/05... Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour was the only one who seemed to have actually listened.
Mayor Naygin did not order a mandatory evacuation until 8/28/05 at 9:30am. The ppl of N.O. had less than 24 hrs to evac. Unacceptable...
Your comment above leads me to believe that you have not actually read the evacuation plan. It can be found at: http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=26
As for shelters, the Superdome is not even listed as a possible "place of shelter" in the event of a Hurricane. The mayor picked the largest building that could house the most people with NO THOUGHT to what could result; other than to tell persons headed to the Superdome to bring atleast 3 days worth of food and water. NO ONE that I observed had more than a days worth of rations as they entered the Dome.
As for wind damage to the Dome? The vinyl membrane that protects the roof was damaged and 2 holes were left when access panels/ vents blew off the roof. The problem with the dome was a large number of ppl with no food, no water, no diapers, and no place to deficate. The structural integrity of the Dome was never in question and never an issue for the occupants inside. (other than a few tense moments as the eye wall passed to the east)
As for the original question... all those damned school buses were running on election day in N.O. The same school buses that were used to bring the same 100,000 ppl with no way out, to the polling locations on election night. The same school buses that we've all seen under water. Those same school buses that the mayor says he couldn't find drivers for.
Jim,
We both seem to work in the same industry.
My company coordinates with several ABC agencys; FEMA, The DOD, and Homeland Security come to mind.(I personally work with The NWS, but that's another story) But atleast 50% of our customers are private sector. We specalize in disaster mitigation and recovery. Our scope ranges from the prevention stage to the logistical coordination of recovery.
Like yourself I used to live near the Gulf. I found that Galveston, TX was not a great place to be in the event of myself having to work round the clock. Having to plan for others while dealing with my familys own safety was too much. We now live in Colorado at 6610' above seal level. A blizzard is the worst we have to deal with. Besides, I live close enough to the Denver airport that I'm 5 hrs away from anywhere in the US. And I don't have to worry about my wife and kids.
Order of Kilopi
Brazil has nothing to do with this discussion. I don´t know why you brought it up. I thought you were talking about some cheap and efficient way to displace people, but now I see you´re just wanting to make fun about a serious issue.
Moderator
I'm trying to see where you really did.
Yes, Mayor Nagin did order a mandatory evacuation about 24 hours before predicted landfall; that's fairly typical. Was it ordered too late? Hindsight says it was. But, remember, the city made it through Katrina in good shape; it was the failure of the levees that caused the real problem.
The 'dome was selected for a large shelter-in-place when the large number of people to shelter became evident, and it would have been good had the roof not leaked and the utilities not failed. Heck, even the roof would have been acceptable if the utilites had stayed on. Had the levees held, folks could have gone home the next day.
Yes, I've seen the evac plan, but didn't read it in detail. However, it does call for using both sides of the major highways to evacuate folks, and that was done. (To answer another post.) Was it done in time? Again, hindsight...
The Houston-Galveston area evac plan also calls for using both sides of the highways, but there are some very troublesome pinch points, most of them at low spots, of course.
I work in the CPI as a project engineer. (Better than my old position as production superintendent; I was on the team that got to stay.) The Houston-area CPI is very sensitive to storms; hurricane plans are updated every year just prior to the start of the season.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
Isaac Asimov
Moderation will be in purple.
Rules for Posting to This Board
Order of Kilopi
Failure by all levels of government.
Interesting article in the Washington Post on Sept. 11, mentioned a number of the failings of the government including Amtrak trains leaving NO without people on board because there was no one to authorize or organize it.
You need to register to read the article:
the Steady Buildup to a City's Chaos
A couple of quotes:
"Hurricane Pam" was a recent FEMA exercise, and it was cut short due to lack of funding.In many cases, resources that were available were not used, whether Amtrak trains that could have taken evacuees to safety before the storm or the U.S. military's 82nd Airborne division, which spent days on standby waiting for orders that never came.
That Friday, as Maestri prepared for the Big One, he had known that his region's survival would depend on the federal response. After Hurricane Pam, FEMA officials had concluded that local authorities might be on their own for 48 or even 60 hours after a real storm, but they had assured Maestri that the cavalry would swoop in after that, and take care of the region's needs.
"Like a fool, I believed them," Maestri said last week.
Established Member
Would not using trains to transport people work? Certainly for fuel/people moved I'd assume that rail would be far more efficient.
I know that most towns/cities have few rail lines/stations now, so should they be disabled you'd be in trouble, but if you had advanced notice I think it'd work fine, you'd just need all of city hall co-ordinating it.
Newbie
Sorry for the rant Jim,
I feel strongly that Mayor Nagin SHOULD BE FIRED! Pont blank. He is another in a series of corrupt southern mayors, including the illustrious Mayor Herenton of Memphis.
I loved the Houston area, but after Allison struck twice... remember that? LOL
I wanted to get the heck out of dodge. We do however have a frost warning issued for us tonight here in Colorado. (thought that might make you feel better)
Established Member
If people are in an area that may require evacuation, issue them a card, with a certain color on it, and some phone numbers and other information about shelters that can be given to relatives prior to an emergency.
When evacuating, your "red" card will allow you to go on a "Red" bus to the "red" shelter, for example. Not complicated. Of course, this assumes that everyone will go willingly, and buses and drivers are available. It would have the advantage of keeping families together, and eliminating the confusion over busing.
BTW, I flew over lower Plaquemines parish today, trust me when I say, you don't really want to see that in person. It's a total loss.
Banned
Haven't you witnessed that the people in RJ tend to have a morbid sense of humor when faced with unavoidable dispair? It seems to be a psychological defense mechanism.
But in any case, I appologize.
Being Brazilian I can see how this hits close to home for you. Using any country in my comment was a mistake and I appolgize for my error. I obviously posted that comment without thinking. My comment did not intend to focus on any place whatsoever.
But, you are right, I should not have made my comment at all. But, at the same time, in the face of such horror, I was searching for any way distract from that and I am not the only one who instinctively made use of the fact that the OP was not specific.
Just so you know, actually, I adore Brazil and I love the family I have there. So in a true sense, I am Brazilian.
Banned
OK, seriously...
The city that is the envy of the world as far as transportation goes is called Curaitaba, in Parana (state of Brazil, aka PR) and the mayor is Jaime Lernner -- or it used to be.
People all over the world have come there to study how he managed to perform his public transportaion miracles.
Last edited by William_Thompson; 2005-Sep-14 at 03:08 AM.
Order of Kilopi
Ok, William. Appologies accepted, though I don´t think you owed any.
About the Curitiba (capital city for Parana) transit system, I´ve heard that it works pretty well indeed. I´ve been there but never used it. Jaime Lerner is the current Parana governor.
With regards.
Established Member
I find it curious that they are unable to evacuate everyone, yet on election day they have the buses running in order to get everyone to the polls. Kinda shows what the politicos truly care about.
Sad. Very, very sad.
Established Member
Being far from the US, I'm probably not the best person to answer this, but the polls are normally located quite close to the people (at least in a city), so you need to move, what, perhaps 2 km maximum? This evacuation was about a few hundred kilometres in many cases. I don't think the two are comparable.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote