I agree.Originally Posted by P.Asmah
When you wish to start such a thread, please go right ahead!
I agree.Originally Posted by P.Asmah
When you wish to start such a thread, please go right ahead!
Nereid wroteor how boutOne more example of the absurd illogic "{insert your favourite mainstream theories here} cannot explain {insert your favourite observations here}, THEREFORE THE EU IDEA MUST BE RIGHT!!!!"
One more example of the absurd illogic "{insert your favourite mainstream theories here} cannot explain {insert your favourite observations here}, THEREFORE THE EU IDEA May be worth investigating!!!!"
Pappongo wroteSeems from this end of the telescope, when mainstream scientist are surprised with a result they just change the stories with comments like "astronomers believe", "scientist think", "astrophysicist suspect" how’s is this any different from say Thornhills "predictions" ??Unfortunately, that's not how it works.
If mainstream scientists are surprised by an experimental result, this does not necessarily prove that an ATM theory can explain it.
Despite the un-scientific nature of this fallacy, ATM proponents like to collect quotes form mainstream scientists which say how unexpected certain observations were, as if this surprise somehow supports the ATM theory.
What these proponents don't get, is that the ATM theory has to prove to be able to explain the observation, independently of the surprise of mainstream scientists.![]()
Pap wrote:After reading all of your post Papy, you my friend are a trollNo. The phrasing of Thornhill's predictions has the same character as predictions made by crackpots.![]()
None of this will matter much after the first major energy crunch later this year (or sooner) anyway. which is kinda ironic.
A scientist (M.King.Hubbert) stated in the late '50s that America would peak in oil production in the 70s, he was laughed at and humiliated, even called a "crackpot", until 1971, when in fact America peaked in oil production.
He had all the data, charts and theories, anyone could have looked at it but it had never happened before and so was ignored, and so here we are today on the brink of economic and social collapse all because a scientific theory was chosen to be ignored.
If you think this is some irrelevant topic, think again. With our current paradigm of using fossil energy to loft stuff into space when this declines and becomes to expensive to extract then I could state that Willy Wonka has got a chocolate factory on one of Neptune’s moons and you would never be able to prove me wrong with Earth based observations.
But if the EU theory proves correct (and IMHO it will) then Teslas ideas could mean we get "free" energy from space, if not then all this talk will amount to ***** ***** ***** (a friendly exercise - edited by antoniseb).
Sol
sol88,
besides the usual "they used to laugh at [insert name of favourite scientist], but he (or she) has been proven right!", do you have actual arguments showing that Thornhill provided quantitative and testable predictions that fit with the observations?
Do you perhaps have a reference for these predictions, so that we can check for ourselves?
Or do you subscribe to the mors tua, vita mea fallacy, without requiring from the EU proponents the same standard of proof required from mainstream scientists?
Do you have actual evidence of sound reasoning in support of EU ideas, which does not rely on the irrelevant excuse "but the mainstream cannot explain!" ?
Originally Posted by sol88
sol88, please keep the content of your posts within BAUT posting guidelines.{BAUT rules, an extract} Attack the ideas, not the person(s) presenting them. If you've got concerns with what someone is saying, feel free dismantle their arguments, but do not resort to ad hominem or personal attacks. Be mindful and respectful of others' feelings. If you feel that someone has crossed the line and insulted you, please contact one of the moderators via private message or e-mail. Don't write scathing posts in the forum to try and humiliate people publicly.
If these guidelines are not followed, the administrators/moderators will take swift and appropriate action, so please behave accordingly.
Please attack papageno's ideas, logic, sources, etc; do NOT indulge in ad hominem attacks.
You have been warned.
As was pointed out in 2002, the rules of this ATM section are somewhat different than those for most internet discussion fora.Originally Posted by sol88
Should you, sol88, or any other BAUT member, wish to investigate EU ideas, nothing about being a BAUT member prevents you.
Further, should you wish to present the results of any such investigation here, in this EU thread, you are welcome to do so.
Challenges to the EU ideas presented in this thread by EU proponents are most unlikely to include "investigation of EU ideas is not worth doing".
However, the scope of this ATM section does not easily allow for undirected discussion of why investigation of EU ideas might (or might not) be worth undertaking. For such a discussion, I suggest that interested parties look for a different forum than BAUT.
No, but it is often said that the efficacy of any theory is reflected in its ability to make accurate predictions.Originally Posted by papageno
While we might always expect a surprise or two, at what point do we say, hang on a minute, the surprises outweigh the predictions, so there must be a fundamental problem with the existing theory?
Value judgements, anyone?
It is equally fallacious to claim that mainstream theories can survive all surprises. If any theory is that bulletproof, then it's not a theory, but a belief!Originally Posted by papageno
If we follow your logic, the surprises can be absorbed ad infinititum, which sounds like a sure-fire trip to Alice In Wonderland.
Once a hypothesis has the support of observation and prediction, surely it is time to start testing its veracity, and developing it as a theory with some OOM etc. It might be a bit premature to start demanding proofs.Originally Posted by papageno
And considering that EU proponents are not even producing scientific predictions that can be tested, how effective is their "theory"?Originally Posted by P.Asmah
Are you referring to the opinions of practicing scientists?Originally Posted by P.Asmah
What if the "surprises" are the result of incomplete information on the conditions?
And scientists do not claim this.Originally Posted by P.Asmah
They say that the mainstream theories have survived so far all experimental tests thrown at them.
They do not claim that the theories will survive every experimental test.
It is not my logic, nor any scientist's.Originally Posted by P.Asmah
The EU proponents are not talking about an hypothesis.Originally Posted by P.Asmah
They claim they are basing their work on already quantitatively developed theories. They have enough to do more than OOM estimates.
And their hypothesis still lacks the support of observation.
I wasn't sure which list you were talking about, so, by starting with the observed double flash at impact I was taking things in chronological order. I should actually have started even earlier, a short time before impact, with the last pictures taken by the impactor's on-board camera, for example, this one:Originally Posted by tusenfem
Thornhill predicted that Tempel 1 would not look anything like a "dirty snowball" but instead
and that:Originally Posted by THUNDERBOLTS
This image and the others taken at even closer range correspond exactly to Thornhill's predictions. Is the mainstream yet again forbidding us to accept the evidence of our eyes and telling us instead to carry on believing what BB theory dictates, in this case their "good old" comet theory (as one of the mainstreamers recently put it)? Not for me, thank you!Originally Posted by THUNDERBOLTS
The second prediction chronologically was that:
It did, apparently, since the last picture was taken three seconds before impact, when the impactor was still 30 miles away.Originally Posted by THUNDERBOLTS
We could carry on to examine the fourth, fifth and other chronologically-ordered predictions but perhaps we can leave that to another post if you still stand by your original assertion that I wouldn't be able to defend even the "first" of Thornhill's predictions, as you claimed here:
Starting to look like pretty good "palm-reading", isn't it?Originally Posted by tusenfem
As for your point about "the X-rays that are produced by charge exchange of solar wind oxygen and water from the comet", there was a lot of very healthy scepticism expressed on this point in the thread devoted to the recent Universe Today story "Deep Impact Caused a Great Gush of Water Vapour".
There was a little more on it in this thread from April 6, also rather inconclusive. It's clear that not many mainstreamers are rushing to defend the "250,000 tonnes of water vapour" idea, which is not based on any sort of spectral evidence, but simply extrapolated from the X-ray readings on the basis of a somewhat surprising "theory". This conclusion is, of course, completely contradicted by the direct spectral evidence which, much to the dismay and puzzlement of mission managers, showed, if anything, a decrease in the amount of "water" in the coma after impact, together with huge quantities of very fine dust. Willingale's theory sounds like just a bit more FAIRIEDUST conveniently thrown up to try to save the dirty snowball model in the face of overwhelming evidence disproving it.
Need I remind you that x-ray emission from comets was only quite recently detected by Chandra: up until they were actually observed, the idea that such a cold object as a "dirty snowball" could emit X-rays seemed totally absurd. And then the Chandra Press Room proudly announced on July 27, 2000, that the "Mystery of Cometary X-Rays [was] Solved":
"Hydrogen" not "water"... Or is the "theory" subject to on-going change as the need arises?Originally Posted by Chandra Press Room
Hi, Papageno,
I'll be responding to what you posted yesterday, but I don't have much time during this Easter holiday and I felt I ought to reply to Tusenfem first.
I'll answer you ASAP.
Of course, with the exception of the surprises.Originally Posted by papageno
Tempel 1 produced a few surprises, I seem to recall, but, if I understand you right from earlier posts, you see no reason to reconsider standard comet theory?
Originally Posted by P.Asmah
And why don't you address the rest of my post?Originally Posted by papageno
Papageno,
A question for you to answer, what would be a definitive piece of evidence for the exploration/investigation/research of the EU idea?
I'm just a little curious as to why you would totally trash this idea based on "mainstream" ideas and the proponents not being able to show quantitive and OOM estimates?
Black holes and neutron stars have never been proven and yet they are excepted on face value as "mainstream", but a theory which a least had a very good go at predicting the outcome of an event (nearly exactly) , could even say that next time they smash an impactor into something (isn’t the moon now a target?) then they may be able to allow for some "surprises"
Don't know about Papageno, but I've been looking at the back and forth in this thread and it is going nowhere. Until the EU proponents start showing quantitative and OOM estimates there isn't even anything to talk about. All I see is fluff: look at this picture, look at this analogy, listen to this word salad, but nothing solid.Originally Posted by sol88
If and when EU proponents actually set forth a hypothesis that can be tested it will get interesting. Assuming this hypothetical hypothesisfits observation when using math and logic and makes real, testable predictions (meaning numbers, not word salad) that work better than "mainstream" theory, then there would be something seriously worth looking into.
Not quite sure what you are getting at, but there are a great number of different types of observations that fit, using math and logic, with the existence of black holes and neutron stars. There are predictions that can and have been made using math and logic based on the existence of black holes and neutron stars that fit observation.Black holes and neutron stars have never been proven and yet they are excepted on face value as "mainstream", but a theory which a least had a very good go at predicting the outcome of an event (nearly exactly) , could even say that next time they smash an impactor into something (isn’t the moon now a target?) then they may be able to allow for some "surprises"
Let me know when the EU group can do even a small fraction of what has been done with, for instance, pulsars.
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?
The Leif Ericson Cruiser
In the case of Black Holes, the math is derived and extrapoltaed from the theory, so it works just fine. If the theory turns out to be wrong, then the math will likewise be sucked into oblivion!Originally Posted by Van Rijn
The EU crowd might just as well come up with their own math, for what it's worth. I think observations and predictions might be a better place to start!
--->Originally Posted by papageno
Yes, indeed. Moreover, what if the theory is based on a total lack of accurate information? The assumptions that begat the dirty snowball model maybe way out. It's certainly beginning to look that way.Originally Posted by papageno
Above all, despite what mathematicians actually seem to believe, maths is only another, albeit specialized, language, with all the inherent failings and limitations of any language, as I argued in post #59 in the "Sani5's ideas on maths and physics" thread:Originally Posted by P.Asmah
__________________Originally Posted by atkins
(my bold)Originally Posted by P.Asmah
Concerning the Thornhill Thunderbolts Deep Impact predictions:
How did he determine the charges that the comet and impactor would have ("charge imbalance")?
How did he work out what the voltage difference would be ("It is a “low-voltage” comet")?
What proportion of the energy of the discharge did Thornhill determine would go into producing X-rays ("Copious X-rays will accompany discharges to the projectile")? Mechanical excavation of the crater (and ejection of the jet material) ("initiate a new jet on the nucleus (which will be collimated—filamentary—not sprayed out)")? Heating of the impactor (presumably to vapourisation)? Others? How did he calculate these?
What is the origin of the charges (i.e. how did the comet and impactor acquire their charges)?
Has anyone (other than Thornhill) seen the methods (equations, numbers, algorithms, etc) that Thornhill used to make his predictions (even in outline)?
Is 9P/Tempel-1 special in any way (so far as short period comets go)? (Other than that it was the target of Deep Impact, of course).
Van Rijn:What happens at, or after singularity is reached?Not quite sure what you are getting at, but there are a great number of different types of observations that fit, using math and logic, with the existence of black holes and neutron stars. There are predictions that can and have been made using math and logic based on the existence of black holes and neutron stars that fit observation.![]()
What’s the maths and the OOM's for that state of matter?![]()
But me being the mathematicianyou might as well be speaking Mandarin, but I would like to have a crack at a few experiments with the sole aim of falsifying the currently accepted view.
![]()
Like I ask before, what would be more or less a definitive experiment for the current mainstreamers to consider this theory at least worth investigating a little further, better than just plain sailing down the river De Nial with the stereo going flat out.![]()
Soll88
A self-consistent model that is not contradicted by available experimental data would be a nice start.Originally Posted by sol88
Vague predictions, with disclaimers blaming others in case of failure, is not.
I don't trash them based on mainstream ideas.Originally Posted by sol88
I point out that EU proponents never come up up with a scientifically valid alternative to the mainstream.
Pointing at the failures of the mainstream does not equal showing that EU ideas fit with the observations.
EU proponents claim to base their work on Plasma Physics.
This branch of Physics is well developed theoretically, and allows for quantitative work. Yet we don't see any quantitative work from EU proponents, just vague statments and plenty of rants against the mainstream. They are not doing science, they are trying to play modern-day Galileos.
edit by antoniseb to add context: This post was in the Star Explodes Inside Another Star discussion in story comments. I've moved it here for any further discussion.
Just as a wacky proposition, what if this is not indeed a black hole or neutron star accreting matter into a singularity, but instead of, this is a Z-pinch under going Bifurcation, as proposed by the EU theorists?
Sol
Last edited by sol88; 2006-Apr-18 at 12:12 AM.
Pap,
question still stands, unless you expect me to give you the theory for everything, what would be a definitive experiment?A self-consistent model that is not contradicted by available experimental data would be a nice start.
Sol
I'm not sure what this has to do with EU ideas - can you explain please?Originally Posted by sol88
For example, are you proposing an EU idea, in terms of an internally consistent explanation for good observational results (e.g. those of SgrA*)? If so, please put them on the table.This has been answered at least once before - if there aren't any quantitative predictions (from any EU idea), even in principle, there are no tests that can be done on those ideas.Like I ask before, what would be more or less a definitive experiment for the current mainstreamers to consider this theory at least worth investigating a little further, better than just plain sailing down the river De Nial with the stereo going flat out.![]()
Soll88
To expand a bit: ATKINS has claimed that Thornhill's 'predictions' matched the results from the experiment (impact with a comet). At the moment, it would seem that only Thornhill knows how those 'predictions' were made (see my earlier post). Unless and until the methods/approaches/whatever that he used could be examined/dissected/whatever, this isn't science, much less a part of astrophysics based on plasma physics.
So, the direct answer is "so far, there is no EU theory; therefore nothing can be investigated (much less an experiment designed)."
Would you like to put an EU theory on the table, sol88?
Only an EU theory, sol88 ... this is no chicken and egg; the theory comes first, then you design an experiment to test it.Originally Posted by sol88
I already explained my answer: the EU proponents have to produce a scientifically viable theory.Originally Posted by sol88
They need to produce a self-consistent model not contradicted by experimental data already available, before they can ask for specific experiments to test their ideas.
At this point, the EU theorists - despite thirty years of work based on already quantitatively developed theories - have produce only vague predictions, determined by unknown methods and stuffed with disclaimers to blame others in case they fail.
Just curious to know what happens to the maths after this point is reached? I think I reacl the maths breaks down at a singularity, is this correct?Originally Posted by sol88
Van Rijn:
What happens at, or after singularity is reached?
What’s the maths and the OOM's for that state of matter?
But me being the mathematician you might as well be speaking Mandarin, but I would like to have a crack at a few experiments with the sole aim of falsifying the currently accepted view.
I'm not sure what this has to do with EU ideas - can you explain please?
For example, are you proposing an EU idea, in terms of an internally consistent explanation for good observational results (e.g. those of SgrA*)? If so, please put them on the table.
My idea will be put on the table after my question reagrding the maths at a singularity question is answered in a succint way. It will help me with the equation I have been working on.
Papageno wrote:What's unviable about it?I already explained my answer: the EU proponents have to produce a scientifically viable theory.
Sol88
This EU thread, in the ATM section of BAUT, is an inappropriate place to ask such a question.Originally Posted by sol88
I have started a new thread, in BAUT's Q&A section, on this very topic.
Please keep an eye on it.I, for one, am very much looking forward to this.My idea will be put on the table after my question reagrding the maths at a singularity question is answered in a succint way. It will help me with the equation I have been working on.As presented by EU supporters, here in this EU thread in the ATM section of BAUT?What's unviable about it?Originally Posted by papageno
Sol88
If you would be so kind as to point us all to where that 'scientifically viable EU theory' has been presented, here in this EU thread?
Please provide either a link, or a post number (or a series of such).
Neried wrote:Sorry to disappoint Nereid, but I cant complete my equation till the mainstreamers can fill in that part of the equation, it is the missing link . I mean come on how absurd, because the maths breaks down so does the theory! Surely a well though out multi-billion dollar budget theory can do better, don't you think??Please keep an eye on it.
Quote:
My idea will be put on the table after my question regarding the maths at a singularity question is answered in a succinct way. It will help me with the equation I have been working on.
I, for one, am very much looking forward to this.
So I could give you my theory on it but it wouldn't amount to much if I can't show you the maths, OOM's and quantative estimates now would it! Or I could take a leaf out of the mainstreamer book and say the maths for my interpretation of the EU idea breaks down at the point of discharge but nether the less it still works.
Now this lillte thought exercise was done to show just how hypocritical the mainstreamers can be.
First upNereid Quote:
Originally Posted by P.Asmah
The EU crowd might just as well come up with their own math, for what it's worth. I think observations and predictions might be a better place to start!
(my bold)
Concerning the Thornhill Thunderbolts Deep Impact predictions:
How did he determine the charges that the comet and impactor would have ("charge imbalance")?
How did he work out what the voltage difference would be ("It is a “low-voltage” comet")?
What proportion of the energy of the discharge did Thornhill determine would go into producing X-rays ("Copious X-rays will accompany discharges to the projectile")? Mechanical excavation of the crater (and ejection of the jet material) ("initiate a new jet on the nucleus (which will be collimated—filamentary—not sprayed out)")? Heating of the impactor (presumably to vapourisation)? Others? How did he calculate these?
What is the origin of the charges (i.e. how did the comet and impactor acquire their charges)?
Has anyone (other than Thornhill) seen the methods (equations, numbers, algorithms, etc) that Thornhill used to make his predictions (even in outline)?
Is 9P/Tempel-1 special in any way (so far as short period comets go)? (Other than that it was the target of Deep Impact, of course).He predicted that there would be a voltage difference, which there was, and since that was the case then the comet must be charged!How did he determine the charges that the comet and impactor would have ("charge imbalance")?
How did he work out what the voltage difference would be ("It is a “low-voltage” comet")?
I think it should now be up to the big boys to work out the OOM's and quantative predictions based on observed fact.
thenvery simple static charge, I work in the fuel industry and they are very heavy on the dangers of static electricity discharge, the little booklet I was re-reading this morning stated that any two different materials that move against one another will produce a potential difference (charge) and this is only in liquids moving thru a pipeline, imagine then a rocky body moving thru plasma!!What is the origin of the charges (i.e. how did the comet and impactor acquire their charges)?
I also saw a program were the ancient Romans valued Amber because it could be charged (simply rubbing it on something) and then held its charge, and remember this is a nonconductive substance, but after a time it loses it charge thru what the booklet call "relaxation", if it could not "relax" fast enough it might just give you a static spark!! .i.e. a comet on a elliptical orbit.
So it stands to reason the generator of charge imbalance in space could be as simple as static build up!!!
Question is how much charge would build up on a galactic scale?
Sol
So because of an understood limitation of (apparently) unrelated theory, you will not begin to even present an EU hypothesis. Anyway, the result is the same: You have nothing worth discussing, the only thing you can do is complain about the horrors of the mainstream while presenting absolutely nothing.Originally Posted by sol88
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?
The Leif Ericson Cruiser
1) The H-R diagram (in the EU idea, stars should have no particular colour-luminosity relationship)
2) Pulsars (in the EU idea, there is no way such extreme stability in period, and such relatively smooth changes in period, could arise)
3) The Hulse-Taylor pulsar, and other binary pulsars, and the double pulsar (in the EU idea, the features in the timing data - which match predictions of GR to an astonishing extent - cannot even exist)
4) The sound spectrum of the Sun - helioseismology (the Sun's temperature/density/composition profile, in the EU idea, cannot give rise to what's observed)
5) Solar neutrinos (not the fact of their existence, but their energy spectrum, are impossible under the EU idea).
... and so on.
So, the EU idea has already been tested, and has failed at least these five tests.
Of course, if any EU proponent can point us to papers which do account for these five sets of observations (quantitatively, of course) ...