Asteroid 2004 MN4 in 2029

[starlight]

Now that we know it's no longer a threat to Earth (at least in 2029) I got myself wondering:

Will we see anything of it? I mean it will pass closer to the moon so, even though it has only about 400m diameter, we should see something, no? h34r:
I'm not expecting a big shooting star. I think it would have to enter the atmosphere for such a show (and I prefer it the way it will be ) but will we see anything?
Will a telescope see anything (though it should be hard to point a telescope at a moving target so close)?

Do we have any idea how long it will take to cross the skies? Or even if it will be visible? And from where?

I know it's still to soon for any accurate predictions but a rough estimate would make me a happy camper for now :P

[tony873004]

It will probably become about as bright as an average star for viewers in Europe, Northern Africa, and Brazil. It will move about the diameter of a full moon per minute from 9:30 - 10:30 GMT.

It'll probably be a big media event. Concerns of asteroids striking Earth will be renewed as millions watch with their naked eyes this tiny dot that could be so destructive if it were just a little closer.

[astromark]

This avent is a long while away... twenty four years. I would dare to sagest that there will be other near miss avents to keep us on our toes. Its the ones we havent seen that worry me. and there has been a few. There is a web site that covers this subject for your location very well and they do all sorts of interesting things like tell you if theres an iridium flare visable from your location and the track of both the ISS and Hubble, any time. there will be others of corse but 'Heavans above"serves this need well, and its free. Its not as good as this UT so dont you dare go there. lol

[Guest]

It will probably become about as bright as an average star for viewers in Europe, Northern Africa, and Brazil. It will move about the diameter of a full moon per minute from 9:30 - 10:30 GMT.

tony, where did you get those numbers? Or did you made them up (I like the scenario though ) Just curious...

astromark: thanks for the site reference. Simple and yet very usefull. Find something new every day, that's what I allways say ^_^. Event though it doesn't have any reference to the body in question, it will be on my bookmarks right under the one for UniverseToday .

[starlight]

By the way, I was the one posting the previous comment... It's just that I'm on a different computer than usual and didn't notice I wasn't logged in yet!

[tony873004]

Originally posted by Guest@Jan 1 2005, 03:31 PM
tony, where did you get those numbers? Or did you made them up (I like the scenario though ) Just curious...

I simulated it in both Gravity Simulator ( http://www.gravitysimulator.com ) and Orbiter ( http://www.orbitersim.com ), using numbers provided by JPL's Horozons system ( http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/ ). About as bright as an average star is just a guess. Someone on the Orbiter forum calculated it to be magnitude 3 which I think is a good guess. It's much larger than a man-made satellite in low earth orbit, but it's much farther and darker too. It's closest approach to Earth's surface will be about 60,000 kilometers.

Here's a picture, generated with Orbiter, of what the Earth will look like from 2004 MN4 at the time of closest approach. All of North America is visible, as is the Western half of northern part of South America. But being in daylight, you won't see anything there. The dark part of the Earth facing 2004 MN4 is where you want to be. Europe will have front row seats.

[starlight]

Great, thanks! Just took a look at that Orbiter site... nice thing too.

Just one thing: 9:30-10:30 GMT is daytime in Europe (morning). So how can it be a priveliged site for watching? :blink:

(again, I know this is still mostly speculation. A zillion things can happen till 2029 that change either one of the bodies predited positions).

[tony873004]

Sorry, I translated it in my mind to PM before I posted. 9:30 - 10:30 PM. I should have put 21:30 - 22:30 GMT. Thanks for catching that.