The Kepler Mission

[Extrasolar]

From arxiv.org:

Habitability of Earth-type Planets and Moons in the Kepler-16 System

[Sporally]

The probability of an Earth sized planet at 1 AU transiting the star from our point of view is 1 in 212, 1 in 106 at 0.5 AU, and 1 in 21 at 0.1 AU.

Is this a general estimate of all stars or an estimate of what Kepler will find? I figure exoplanets surprices us again and again espically when talking numbers of smaller planets, so I would guess we will see more than that. But talking Kepler findings only this could well make sence for me.

[antoniseb]

Is this a general estimate of all stars or an estimate of what Kepler will find? ...

This was pretty clearly stated. If a star exactly the diameter of our Sun has a planet the size of Earth orbiting at 1 AU, the chance that its orbital inclination would allow us to see a transit is 1 in 212. IF the diameter of the star was one tenth the diameter (Jupiter or Red Dwarf sized) the change goes down by a factor of ten (1 in 2120). If the planet were orbiting a bloated red giant with a radius of almost 1 AU, the chance would be almost 1 in 1, but the event would probably reduce light so little that it would be unobservable.

[Sporally]

Interesting reading!