Russia May Join The Esa

[Fraser]

Here's an article from the journal Nature that says that Russia is considering joining the European Space Agency. That sounds like a pretty good idea for them since Europe is pretty close, and the thing they lack the most is human spaceflight experience.

http://www.nature.com/nsu/040517/040517-8.html

[Tinaa]

I am wondering why we don't have a "Terran Space Agency." Will competition or cooperation get us into space safer and faster?

[Galaxy dweller]

Tinaa, I think your idea of "Terran Space Agency" is very good. I believe in cooperation. After all we and the Russians cooperate in the ISS. Perhaps Terran Space Agency will be the first step to a United Earth facing the abyss of the Universe.

[Josh]

This is a great idea. I like the idea of the ESA/Russia partnership being able to rival NASA in terms of both science, human spaceflight and unmanned missions. It would be a damn shame for all the experience Russia has with manned space flight to go quietly into history - for them and for the rest of us. International collaboration in space (or anywhere else for that matter) is great for the future of everyone.

It seems odd that Russia is vying for full membership status though. Isn't that when they become obligated to contribute their equal share to the expenses of running the ESA? Isn't that the very problem Russia has - not enough money?

[Josh]

Also .. would this have any ramifications for the ISS? Does Russia's joining of the ESA mean they no longer have their own space program and are simply a part of the infrastructure of the ESA?

[SpaceErnie]

I don't think so. The Russian Space agency is still the best in the world regarding human space flight. If they joined ESA, it would be as a partner on equal terms. They have a lot to bring with them. Russian / European co-operation may actually extend the life of the ISS. Russia has the launch capability and ESA has cash, and an Aerospace industry keen to prove itself. Between them, they may be able to keep the ISS going a little longer than it would have, otherwise.

[SpaceErnie]

Regarding your point about paynig ESA contributions - Membership status does not mean that they have to pay a fixed percentage of costs. Its a bit of a simplification but, in general, ESA members contribute however much they can afford (or want to). The amount that they contribute determines how much of the mission development work they get back from ESA.

[Manchurian Taikonaut]

I don't know how true this is?I don't think it's possible yet.

But maybe soon, Europe is much more stable now, it has a strong connection between countries and trade understandings, maybe we will have scientists and space workers all working together for the future and benefit of mankind.


but not yet, it is too early. EU area and Russia might be close but I don't think the relationship is perfect yet for something like this to work. Both places have their own intrests, arrogance and pride. ESA sometimes fials but ESA is clever at times, it works with Russia, sometimes China and helps NASA too. I think this can be how to make money and gain influence and learn more. This is a good idea

[dshan]

Russia joining ESA is probably a good idea as too close a partnership with the U.S. to the exclusion of others is dangerous. The goal I believe is to get humanity and it's machines off Earth and into space, exploring and settling the solar system before it's too late and either some natural or man-made disaster wipes us out or drives us back to a level of technology that makes spaceflight impossible.

Currently the U.S. has the most advanced technology to do this however their political commitment is short-term and quite dodgy, their economy is being driven by insane policies that will quite possibly lead to some form of serious collapse in the not-too-distant future and their current quest for military domination and economic resource piracy is both distracting them from spaceflight and making it both economically and politically difficult for them to make it happen.

The White House recently notified government agencies to expect "sharply lower" budgets in 2006 FY than 2005 (i.e. after the elections) so even the Bush team know the current huge deficit spending spree is unsustainable. NASA will surely be badly affected by this and whatever small budget increase they may get in 2005 won't last. The new Space Exploratiion Initiative is already looking shaky moneywise I'd say and I think they'll be lucky to ever get the shuttle flying again, let alone finish the ISS and return to the moon by 2020. A severe economic recession/depression in the next 5-10 years and you can kiss goodbye to private space projects for decades in the U.S.

Then there's global warming, peak oil production looming and other issues likely to occupy the U.S. for years to come. We simply have to have other sources of space technology and exploration available or the human race is in deep deep trouble.

[Deep_Eye]

I think that Russia will make a great addition to the ESA. The more countries there are working together for a common, scientific goal, the better.

[John L]

Dishan,

I think the article you link to is talking about domestic spending, which to a Replican means social programs. Defense and Science are usually not included in that. The National Science Foundation is mentions, but they will be cutting the more bizarre research that they are known to fund such as fringe sex studies.

[dshan]

Originally posted by John L@Jun 1 2004, 10:29 PM
Dishan,

I think the article you link to is talking about domestic spending, which to a Replican means social programs. Defense and Science are usually not included in that. The National Science Foundation is mentions, but they will be cutting the more bizarre research that they are known to fund such as fringe sex studies.

Don't kid yourself. They will need to cut scores (even hundreds) of billions of dollars from the budget, cutting "fringe sex studies" and so forth will save them nothing significant, the cuts will have to be much deeper than that. Only defence may escape, NASA will be hurt (though they'll probably try to hit unmanned scientific programs more which will of course simply outrage the scientific community and make the dichotomy between manned and unmanned missions even worse than it is now) along with anything else (social, scientific, environmental) they can get away with until about a year before the 2008 elections.

Oh, and they'll cut the "fringe sex studies" too, just to show how much they hate them and what good Republicans they are...

[Peter Canuck]

It makes perfect sense for Russia to look at this very seriously.

While Russia physically runs from eastern Europe to the edge of east Asia and south to the northern border of the mid-east, much of its power base and population are now and have always been European in nature.

Its a good fit socially for them to work with the rest of Europe. It has to be a good fit financially too. They get the benefit of the much more progressive European economies that are decades ahead in development.

It may take a while to integrate the Russians into the mix, but it will happen. When it is fully integrated, it puts pressure on the USA to really look at a global space agency rather than having its own game. That make take alot longer though.

[setiman]

<_< It would appear our nation is about to receive a heavy dose of "come uppance" as Europe through a new political and scientifiic unity (Russia joining in) tells us to buzz off when we try to dictate world policy. Space exploration may be one of the first places they exercise their new independence.

Geopolitically a merger between Western Europe and Russia (this will sweep the Balkans in on the way) could really give us a run for our money. They could hire a Rutan and make breakthroughs that we are too financially "out-of-pocket" to explore. In spite of Robert Goddard, it was the Von Braun knowledge that got us into the real space sciences. The basic scientific skills that hatched Von Braun are still there and very active, so the new ESA could wind up leading the way.

Maybe all of the above is the first step toward a Terran Space Agency. We would have to swallow some of our pride, but talk about the power to really get out in space, it would be there for certain with a TSA.

I personally would like that. I would feel far more optimistic about a really successful and meaningful exploration of space. Of course a true TSA would include our Middle East, Far Eastern and African neighbors. They would add incredible brain power and Africa would finally begin to share its natural resources for the good of all of us.

Good grief, we could wind up saving humankind. What an interesting idea&#33;

[apolide]

Hmmm, you people seem too optimistic to me. I majored in International Relations, specializing in the dynamics of the European Union machinery. Every time an American complains about the US bureaucracy, think about the fact that things around here are MUCH more complicated. Space policies are no exception. Even a straightforward program like Galileo caused ENORMOUS problems because Italy and Germany were squabbling about the choice of the head contractor, France was trying (as usual) to extort unfair compensations for the oh-so-gracious placet granted to the program (read "this time we won&#39;t ask for 70% of the jobs, but next time we want 90%"), the UK was trying to save some cash while the rest of the smaller countries opened negotiations with all the parties involved (read "our votes go to the highest bidder").
Every single project launched by ESA has to go through the same infernal mechanism... every time ESA manages to produce some scientific results should be hailed as a miracle, given the wicked laws of European politics.
Just imagine what impact would have to let someone as proud and easily offended as the Russian government enter the arena of ESA negotiations.
I may be pessimistic, but at least someone should expect MAJOR complications from this choice.
Both from a strategic and technological point of view, it would be a no-brainer to welcome with open arms someone as qualified, serious and down-to-earth as the Russian Space Agency (who has had the time to forget the good ole Soviet days of spend-as-much-as-you-want).
But considering the overall efficiency of the space program (already quite anemic and overly bureaucratic) and the political/economic implications, I would refrain from allowing the Russians to join ESA.
Extending the joint ventures already in place (i.e. the Soyuz launch pad at Kourou) would be more than enough.
With the current economic climate, I think it&#39;s no time for complications.

[virtualutopia]

I agree with apolide. In such international efforts, we routinely find the participants vying to assert their own agenda&#39;s or ensure that they are not contributing disproportionately to an agenda that is set by others. In many cases (the EU constitution is a good example), it is easy to agree on the high level objectives, but when it comes to the detail, the views and priorities of the individual participants are difficult to reconcile.

I think that, in the forseeable future at least, we are more likely to see benefits come from international co-operation on specific projects, rather from an integrated multi-focussed organisation with wide-ranging projects.

What does everyone else think? Are there any examples of international multi-project consortiums which have performed well? Particularly in areas where the benefits are not easily defined (i.e. not necessarily monetary)?

Additionally, do such ventures suffer from a lack of openness (therefore diminished cross-fertilisation for other projects)? Alternatively, how well does an organisation like NASA share information across their project boundaries?

[setiman]

B) Hmmm, what I am hearing or I should say reading is that we are not yet mature enough to really make a international space agency work. I don&#39;t argue with apolide he relates clear experience. It is disappointing though.

Maybe this is why any extra-terrestrials out there don&#39;t worry. We are too caught up in ourselves to work together and I really think we are going to have to work together to make it in deep space. Earth could be a weekly sitcom for those other civilizations out there.

[imported_StarStuff]

I would like to be optimistic here. I think that the Russian Space Agency still has much to offer for the good of mankind. Still, the EU seems to be plagued with problems it can not itself sort out.

It seems to me that Russia has everything to gain and nothing to lose from joining the EU. The EU on the other hand, may gain Russian space technology, but also a floundering Russian economy and a rebel uprising to boot.

I too think that it may happen, but it will be a long time in coming.

[apolide]

A sitcom based on our constant bickering in space policy would be much more interesting than "the West Wing" - even if I think that an alien spacefaring culture would look at it as a hit comedy.
Who knows, we may already be the cast members of an interstellar "Friends"... in that case, we should file a request for the royalties&#33;

[Fraser]

The Russians could teach the US a few things about how to include the abilities of private enterprise, ironically. They&#39;ve been big supporters of space tourism and advertising. I guess when you&#39;re completely broke, you&#39;ll come up with all kinds of ideas.

Maybe the US need to stop all funding for NASA, that would get them pretty hungry. ;-)

[setiman]

As much as we may not like to admit it, Russia or the USSR to be precise was first in space. Now no Commie leader however powerful can order technological competency, so the boys East of the Volga have some valuable smarts. That competency fortunately is friendly now.

[apolide]

I totally agree with fraser... a harsh diet for NASA is sorely needed.
There should be a mathematical law to describe the correlation between the funds available, the creativity of the solutions proposed and the overall efficiency of the final product.
The Russian Space Agency has learned to do amazing things with very few rubles... their expertise could be precious, even if I&#39;m almost sure that not many people in the Western space agencies would be happy to accept such a "revolutionary" new philosophy.