The Moon's near Last Quarter and won't be rising until the early hours, so good luck guys...
* * * * * * * * * * MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
* * * * * * * * * * WATCH ISSUED: 11:40 UTC, 12 APRIL 2004
* * * * * * * * /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
VALID BEGINNING AT: 22:00 UTC ON 12 APRIL
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 14 APRIL
PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 08:00 UTC ON 13 APRIL
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 APRIL (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 13-14 APRIL
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 27, 15, 10 (12 APRIL - 15 APRIL)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO NONE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
* NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMINGTO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
* SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY
* SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
* NORTHERN IRELAND TO NORTHERN ENGLAND TO DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
* NORTHERN REACHES OF GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
* SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.
* * The highest velocity coronal mass ejection observed in the last several
days was launched from the Sun on 11 April and is expected to impact the
Earth during the early to mid UTC hours of 13 April (current estimate is for
near 08:00 UTC on 13 April). The arrival of this disturbance could herald
periods of intensified auroral activity that may become visible from dark-sky
middle latitude regions. The duration of the disturbance will probably be
fairly short (6 to 12 hours), but could (if conditions are favorable) promote
moderately strong episodic auroral activity.
* * This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
14 April. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
* * * * * * * PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
* * * * * * * * http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
*** End of Watch* **