Bad Science on History Channel--again

[jgravatt]

The other night I was watching some show about the end of the world coming, and one of the potential killers was noted to be an asteroid impact. The show said the obligatory, "its not if, its when," and then went on to have some "scientist" talk about the odds. He said something to the effect that "you wake up every day with a one in 20,000 chance of a half mile meteor hitting the earth."

Immediately my ** sensor went off b/c those seem like pretty bad odds for humanity. That would come out to one half-mile impact every 54.8 years. Now, I'm no astronomer, but I don't think we've had many half-mile impacts in the last 100 years. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

[farmerjumperdon]

It's still one of the few channels I check out regularly, but it has certainly gone downhill as of late. My rough estimate is that is it is now 50% history at most, and the rest is garbage.

[John M. Dollan]

It's still got to be better than the Learning Channel... which might as well rename itself the *Other* Home Improvement Channel.

Remember when TLC used to actually play shows on science? No, really, I'm serious. I have some old ones recorded, I can prove it!

**sighs** I miss the old days....

...John...

[Captain Kidd]

It's still got to be better than the Learning Channel... which might as well rename itself the *Other* Home Improvement Channel.

Remember when TLC used to actually play shows on science? No, really, I'm serious. I have some old ones recorded, I can prove it!

**sighs** I miss the old days....

...John...

Ahh the good ol' days. TLC use to beat Discovery Channel hands down. Now they're both in the garbage pile. Monster this, Monster that. Turn a normal home into a fluffy pink bunny nightmare.

The only reason I still have cable is that Comcast charges a "no cable TV" fee for broadband w/o at least basic cable equal to having basic cable. I've basically quit even channel surfing in hopes of finding something mediocre must less good.

[Jim]

... He said something to the effect that "you wake up every day with a one in 20,000 chance of a half mile meteor hitting the earth."

... That would come out to one half-mile impact every 54.8 years. ...

Not necessarily. He's talking odds, not frequency.

Toss a coin and the odds are 1 in 2 that it comes up heads. That doesn't mean it will come up heads within two tosses.

You have a 1 in 50,000 chance of being struck by lightning. That doesn't mean that you will be if you live to be 137.

The odds of hitting the lottery are 1 in 1,000,000. That doesn't mean that if one million people play, one of them will win.

There's a 1 in 20,000 chance that we'll be hit by a half-mile wide meteor today. But, whether we are or aren't, the odds will be the same tomorrow.

[montebianco]

The other night I was watching some show about the end of the world coming, and one of the potential killers was noted to be an asteroid impact. The show said the obligatory, "its not if, its when," and then went on to have some "scientist" talk about the odds. He said something to the effect that "you wake up every day with a one in 20,000 chance of a half mile meteor hitting the earth."

I saw this one also, and it struck me as odd. I don't know the distribution of meteor sizes, but I'm guessing that the half-mile variety are pretty rare, and if the implication is that a mass-extinction type event falls from the sky this often, that doesn't seem to be the case...

[montebianco]

Not necessarily. He's talking odds, not frequency.

Toss a coin and the odds are 1 in 2 that it comes up heads. That doesn't mean it will come up heads within two tosses.

You have a 1 in 50,000 chance of being struck by lightning. That doesn't mean that you will be if you live to be 137.

The odds of hitting the lottery are 1 in 1,000,000. That doesn't mean that if one million people play, one of them will win.

There's a 1 in 20,000 chance that we'll be hit by a half-mile wide meteor today. But, whether we are or aren't, the odds will be the same tomorrow.

Well, yes, that's correct, but if each day is independent of the others, the expected number of incidents in the indicated period is equal to one. In the 1/20,000 case, the probability that there would be no incident in a given 60,000 day period is less than 0.05. The probability that no incident would occur in a given 100,000 day period is less than 0.01. If the realized frequency of half-mile asteroid strikes is far less than once every 20,000 days (is it?), then we have to start to wonder if the probability really is 1/20,000 each day. If we're willing to go nuts with this, let's suppose the probability is 0.99999 every day. Well, it is still possible to go one million years without any strike, but the probability is so vanishingly small that it ought to cause us to question whether the probability really is 0.99999...

[EricDerKonig]

Proving that all hope is not lost, NOVA had an excellent show on the formation of the earth last night. Now if only other channels would show things like that. Sigh...

[jgravatt]

I do understand the difference between odds and frequency, but it still has to be wrong. If there is a chance of such a meteor hitting every 20,000 days, on average, there will be two every century. Not much life would be able to survive and evolve if such strikes happened that frequently.

[NEOWatcher]

I do understand the difference between odds and frequency, but it still has to be wrong. If there is a chance of such a meteor hitting every 20,000 days, on average, there will be two every century. Not much life would be able to survive and evolve if such strikes happened that frequently.

Yes, there is a difference, but the probability of straying off of the frequency goes down over time. (not sure if I phrased it right)
So, with those numbers, the probability of NOT getting hit in each millenium is 1 in 84 Million. And each million years? 1 in 1.2e7926
(or astronomically off the frequency).

[montebianco]

I do understand the difference between odds and frequency, but it still has to be wrong. If there is a chance of such a meteor hitting every 20,000 days, on average, there will be two every century. Not much life would be able to survive and evolve if such strikes happened that frequently.

Yes, there is a difference, but the probability of straying off of the frequency goes down over time. (not sure if I phrased it right)
So, with those numbers, the probability of NOT getting hit in each millenium is 1 in 84 Million. And each million years? 1 in 1.2e7926
(or astronomically off the frequency).

And the probability of getting hit every day for five years is larger than the probability of not getting hit for one million years

[tracer]

Ahh the good ol' days. TLC use to beat Discovery Channel hands down. Now they're both in the garbage pile. Monster this, Monster that. Turn a normal home into a fluffy pink bunny nightmare.

I still prefer the current spate of nonstop home-improvement shows on TLC over the previous spate of nonstop aliens-abducted-my-guardian-angel nonsense shows that used to be on that channel.

[Captain Kidd]

Ahh the good ol' days. TLC use to beat Discovery Channel hands down. Now they're both in the garbage pile. Monster this, Monster that. Turn a normal home into a fluffy pink bunny nightmare.

I still prefer the current spate of nonstop home-improvement shows on TLC over the previous spate of nonstop aliens-abducted-my-guardian-angel nonsense shows that used to be on that channel.

Thanks, I had sucessfully supressed that memory until you reminded me.

[CJSF]

Well, it isn't officially called "The Learning Channel" any more. There was a deliberate move away from that years ago. I happen to enjoy some of what they show in the "home improvement" area. I really enjoy Town Haul and some of the reality medical shows are pretty cool.

CJSF

[novaderrik]

most of the Discovery Networks "educational" stuff is now on the Science channel.
being a car guy- and generally into mechanical things- i like the direction Discovery has gone. Monster garage can be flat out awesome sometimes- Jesse James is a great fabricator and artist in his own right, and isn't afraid to admit when he doesn't know what he's doing and read a book about whatever he's trying to accomplish- and American Chopper and American Hot Rod are like gear head soap operas. over on TLC, i find the only show i can stand anymore is Overhaulin.
those shows show kids that it's cool to work hard and actually get your hands dirty, and the rewards can far outweigh the effort you put into something.
these days, if i want to learn anything "scientific", i watch either the National Geographic Channel or the Science Channel- but History sometimes has some cool stuff on it. and the Military Channel is good if i wanna see how our tax dollars are put to use blowing stuff up.

[Gillianren]

as far as I'm concerned, they should have a "car guy" channel. the only things I watch on Discovery is MythBusters and such rare episodes of Unsolved History as they air. (not enough.) I don't watch anything on TLC anymore (the first thing I ever watched there was Connections; now, I actively avoid the channel). and now, there's regular car shows on the History Channel.

while the car shows can, from a certain perspective, be called history or discovery or learning, none of them are really aired as such; they're all "hey, look, it's cars." I don't care. I'd really like to see a documentary about Henry Ford, but I don't want to see the engine of a Ford.

[Eoanthropus Dawsoni]

I don't think I am missing much without cable or a dish. I get a lot of books read which I probably would not get to if the TV was on.

[Pip]

It's still got to be better than the Learning Channel... which might as well rename itself the *Other* Home Improvement Channel.

Remember when TLC used to actually play shows on science? No, really, I'm serious. I have some old ones recorded, I can prove it!

**sighs** I miss the old days....

...John...

They ran a show about the Ark of the Covenant at 3 am about two months ago.

But yes, TLC is garbage for the most part these days.

[John M. Dollan]

Well, it isn't officially called "The Learning Channel" any more. There was a deliberate move away from that years ago. I happen to enjoy some of what they show in the "home improvement" area. I really enjoy Town Haul and some of the reality medical shows are pretty cool.

CJSF

Is this sort of like when Spike TV was still called "The New TNN", but had nothing to do with country music at all any longer?

...John...

[akochan]

One must remember that "The Discovery Channel" owns Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet, History Channel, Discovery-Wings, Military Channel, and Science Channel, etc...

Thus TLC and Discovery went from being something of everything to more specialized formats... and those things we actually found interesting have mostly moved to those other channels in the same network.... Like Junkyward Wars is on Science instead of TLC now... All the shows with Stukas and Apaches and such are on Military or Wings... and so on...

Of course you do need digital cable to get all those channels and on top of that extra cost you need to pay extra for some of them. I personally love the Science channel, especially as Tuesdays are devoted almost entirely to astronomy.

[Humphrey]

I thought History Channel was independent of the Discovery networks and was on its own.

[farmerjumperdon]

I thought it was all different. Thanks for confirming. It had been about 7 or 8 years since we had something other than UHF/VHF. So when we got the dish I was really confused. I went to check out Learning and Discovery and others and found them full of flotsam like 4 guys in a garage insulting each other as they built things.

Then I checked out a couple of the home improvement shows and they are now about the people instead of the improvements. Used to be you could learn something from those shows. Now they are all about how upset Monica is going to be because Lenny didn't check in with her when he ordered Orchid placemats instead of the Coral ones he knew Monica liked.

Sheeeeeesh!

[Demigrog]

Er, the History Channel is owned by GE, Disney, and Hearst Entertainment.

Discovery and TLC is owned by Liberty Media, Cox, and Advance/Newhouse.

[aurora]

The other night I was watching some show about the end of the world coming, and one of the potential killers was noted to be an asteroid impact. The show said the obligatory, "its not if, its when," and then went on to have some "scientist" talk about the odds. He said something to the effect that "you wake up every day with a one in 20,000 chance of a half mile meteor hitting the earth."

Are you sure it was 20,000? any chance it was some much larger number?

Other possibilities: Maybe the person misspoke. Or maybe the person is an idiot.

[Swift]

Well, it isn't officially called "The Learning Channel" any more. There was a deliberate move away from that years ago.

So what does TLC stand for? :-k

The Loony Channel
Totally Lost Credibility
Them Learned Cience
They Like Cars

[montebianco]

Are you sure it was 20,000? any chance it was some much larger number?

The OP heard this number, and I also watched it and have a distinct recollection of hearing this number and thinking it was strange, so there is some independent confirmation.

Other possibilities: Maybe the person misspoke.

Quite possibly.

Or maybe the person is an idiot.

Also possible. I don't recall who said it, and whether that person showed evidence of being an idiot during the show.

[gopher65]

according to the wikipedia, an impact event with a yield of ~ 10-15 megatons (huge) happens about every 300 years. 15 megatons is apparently enough to knock down every tree within 50 KM and knock people off their feet 650KM away. Wow, that's some shockwave!

[Pip]

The last impact like that was in Tunguska in 1908, right?

[Wolfieseb]

Basically, the only things I watch on TV these days is Antiques Roadshow, the medical reality shows, the Animal shows on Animal Planet, such as Animal Precinct, etc. Sometimes Hands on History and John Ratzenbergers shows are pretty good as well.

Sylvia

[CalabashCorolla]

Basically not one single "educational" cable channel has 100% quality programming anymore. So you gotta surf to find the good stuff (and all praise to the DirecTV guide!)

TLC is the worst; it has become a consummate HGTV clone, along with all the medical docus that aren't gross enough to make it onto Discovery Health.

Discovery is now The Gear Network. They should just call it that and get it over with. Once in a blue moon they will show a purely scientific show, but not enough to buck with the trend. MythBusters and Megastructures (actually a quality engineering show!) are the only real reasons to watch if you get bored with the American Metal Shop shows.

The History Channel is still about 30% WWII, and every couple of months they will trot out a flagship two-hour special that is basically a big rehash of what other shows have covered and not much new. I'd be surprised if the Rome special coming up manages to surpass David Macauley's excellent book and TV special in coverage and insight. Modern Marvels is still good, especially the engineering disaster episodes. And the recent shows on the space program have been quality as well.

History International is surprisingly good, especially the British history series (A History of Britain and the more tongue-and-cheek one...the one where they had historical figures like Francis Drake, Mary Queen of Scots, etc. come out and talk with the host).

Best sceince networks? National Geographic and The Science Channel.