This second time it made it. I'll get that out to the participants within a day or two.Originally Posted by gzhpcu
Order of Kilopi
This second time it made it. I'll get that out to the participants within a day or two.
Established Member
Jump bump.
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Patience is a virtue...
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So we wonder if Charlie in Dayton will get a reading that says, "you are impatient." :-)
As above, so below
Established Member
Send me next weeks winning lottery numbers, oh psychic one... How do these theads get past the first page??
Honored Member
Followed of course by a reading that Jens has an inquiring mind that can take given facts and come to relevant conclusions, all the while maintaining a certain sense of decorum that is unique to his sign, a virtue shared by some of the other planets, but not to the extent found in certain ascendants during their lunar and plutonian phases, excepting the house of the rising Sun.
You know, the more I consider it, the more astrology looks like a really good, cheap, and dirty way to make some money, as long as one maintains a straight face at the appropriate times.
Not that anyone would ever do that...
Honored Member
Well, it's kind of a sad story.
A long time ago, in a continent far across the pond, a psychologist named Jung decided to latch on to astrology. As a result some of his disciples have followed suit.
Some persons (gzhpcu for example) have decided that, since Jung and his group were/are degreed professionals, then, there must be something to astrology. Of course this is the fallacy known as Argumentum ad Verecundiam.
Nevertheless, to humor gzhpcu, some of us decided to participate in a test to see if his charts would match something about us. Unfortunately gzhpcu has already admitted this won't actually be a scientific test, so now it's mostly for fun.
Therefore, the thread title is a misnomer, but we're still curious to see just how far off, according to non-scientific, qualitative evaluations, the results are. After all, non-scientific, qualitative evaluations that are so indeterminate as to be subject to numerous equally valid (or invalid) interpretations, are what astrology is all about.
Well, besides money and self-deception, that is...
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And I promise that I'll get everything out this weekend! Sorry, I'm the cause of the delay at the moment.
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Jeez, how did you know. I can promise you one thing, if I ever become president of the US, I'll make you the official white house astrologer!
As above, so below
Established Member
So make me a believer and send the Powerball numbers. I promise to be a good person after I win.... Or will your crystal ball forbid such mercenary actions? Or is it just like I thought... just bunch of bull?
Order of Kilopi
Just wondering, but have you read the whole thread? Do you have any comments about the design of this study, or perhaps the purpose? I assume, of course, that you have read the whole thread and are aware of what we're discussing. Maybe you think the design could have been better. If so, I'd enjoy hearing your comments.
As above, so below
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Don't let him fool you... relevant is mercury in Scorpio or mercury conjunct pluto or mercury in the 8th house... but I don't want the job... more interested in being Pamela Anderson's personal astrologer...
Honored Member
That's pretty darn appropriate, in that Polythene Pam is about as genuine and real as astrology!
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True, but more fun nonetheless...
Honored Member
Thanks, Ron! Or should I be thanking Nancy?
Established Member
I read enough to deduce it's a cowpie. Making vague predictions and interpreting what actually happened after the fact is not very compelling. In fact, it sounds vaguely familiar ... like Nostradamus. Is predicting lottery numbers unfair? If the 'gods' object to profiteering, just write down the winning numbers on a dated grocery slip, have it notarized and mail it [registered] to JREF. Does that seem fair, or do the 'gods' object to their veracity being tested?
Bad Post-Doc
sigh. you didn't read the thread in its entirety. you didn't read the purpose of the experiment.
and I would just like to point out something to all those people demanding lottery numbers. my particular aspect of divination, which is not intended to be an absolute, has no way of producing a list of numbers--or at least, not numbers over 22, and I think we can agree that the odds are against a list of lottery numbers that are all under 22.
_____________________________________________
Gillian
"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"
"You can't erase icing."
"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"
Established Member
I think I read it all too well. Your powers of 'divination' fail to produce any falsifiable predictions.
Established Member
Hey, I thought this thread was about gzhpcu stepping up and performing a test of his astrological skills for all us skeptics here. If he is genuine enough in his beliefs to think that this test might back his claim, and willing to undertake it, then we should cut him some slack IMO.
Established Member
Why should I cut any slack to an outrageous claim? I view this as a learning experience, and the kids who stop by here deserve to hear reasonable objections. The test I proposed is extremely fair, given the claim. I will recant my claim if the 'psychic' can guess 4/6 lottery numbers two weeks in a row... providing, of course, the psychic specifies which lottery is being predicted.
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To those who have not read the thread: I just have the feeling (I admit I might be wrong), that there is something to a branch of astrology which does character analysis, the input having been provided by a group of Jungian psychologists (Liz Greene, Steve Hand, etc.). This is not about lottery numbers. Nothing more, nothing less. It was agreed to do a test, out of curiosity, just that.
Established Member
Do you object to the claims being tested?
But this thread is about testing gzhpcu's claims, he never claimed he could predict lottery numbers.The test I proposed is extremely fair, given the claim. I will recant my claim if the 'psychic' can guess 4/6 lottery numbers two weeks in a row... providing, of course, the psychic specifies which lottery is being predicted.
Order of Kilopi
Thanatos, if you'd actually read this thread, you'd be aware the gzhpcu has not made any claims that he can predict lottery numbers, or indeed, predict the future at all using astrology. The specific claim that he's made is that he can give a good personality description of someone, given only their birth date, time, and location. I offered to assist in testing that claim, by providing a group of testers with the description he would give for each person, as well as three others for different birth dates, and allowing them to choose which one fits best. If there were actually a strong correlation, I'd be willing to accept gzhpcu's suggestion that "there might be something to it", though I've certainly made it clear that I expect that the result will show matches about as successfully as random chance.
You'll note that, in the opening post, I also requested that we restrict this particular thread to a discussion of this particular test, the methodology used, any suggestions for improving it, and the results, once those are ready. If you want to discuss some other aspects of astrology, such as those you've brought up, I'd ask that you please be polite enough to start a separate thread for that discussion. Thanks!
By the way, I've requested from a couple of the moderators the ability to send messages larger than 5,000 characters for a day so that I can send the descriptions out through the forum message system. If that doesn't work, however, would all participants be willing to send me an outside e-mail address (via private message would be best) so that I can send the descriptions?
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I've checked, and there's no easy way to increase my post size limit. I could break the messages into sections, but it would take about 4 for each person, times the 20 people participating, which is 80 messages, also over a forum limit. Please send me your e-mail address privately, if you can. I'll send all that I can by e-mail, but for anyone who would prefer not to provide it, I'll use the break up and send in sections method. Sorry for the problem.
Established Member
Agreed Grey, gzhpcu has not agreed to make any falsifiable predictions. So do I. I will write down my life history and mail it to you. You will agree not to open it until gzhpcu has 'read me'. Is that fair? My birthdate is 01/28/53 at 12:14 PM. Longitude 6:00 latitude 38.43 N.
Established Member
Thanatos, why do you insist in interfering in this thread? A test (not a scientific onbe, but an interrsting one nevertheless) of gzhpcu's claims is underway. Why do you want to add something? Why would gzhpcu agree to "read" you when you come in here with such an attitude (gzhpcu does not claim he is a psychic)? He is already "reading" twenty people, give the guy a break.
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Thanatos, just adding again, but look, if you want to do another test of astrology or want to discuss it, START ANOTHER THREAD. We had a long discussion in here about how best to design a test to see whether astrology can predict personalities. Most of us here are fairly skeptical of it, but we are all people who are willing to try to do a test, and we tried hard to make it as objective as possible. I think it's a pretty unanimous feeling that you came in here without having read the beginning of the thread, and don't really understand what we're trying to do here. If you think there are flaws in the trial, please go ahead and make specific criticisms. But if you do so, make it clear that you understand the specifics of what is being done.
As above, so below
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Sure he has. He's predicted that, if people select from a group of four astrological descriptions (one created from their own birth information, and the other three from that of other people in the test group), that the correlation will be significantly better than random chance would suggest. We're in the process of testing that right now, to see whether it's true or false.
The problem with this method, and one that the current test is designed to avoid, is that it's very hard to judge objectively how well a specific character description of the sort gzhpcu is discussing fits a given person. There are a large number of separate parts with various statements about personality and disposition. One of the tricky parts about such a description is that it's pretty easy to latch on to the elements that are accurate and dismiss those that miss the mark, or are simply vague enough to apply to many people. On the other hand, it might be equally easy to notice primarily the parts that fail to be accurate, while not giving as much weight to parts that seem to apply. By trying to select the one that fits best out of a group, that problem is eliminated, since if the hits are just random, then the "correct" reading won't match any better than any of the others, on average.
At this point, we've already put together a group of twenty participants, gzhpcu has done the lengthy task of putting together descriptions for all of those people (something he had no particular obligation to do), and I'm in the process of sending those descriptions to the participants for their perusal. So it's really too late to actually participate in this particular study, though you're more than welcome to stay around and discuss the results when they're ready.
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Just a quick update. I've gotten most of the descriptions out, although there are a few people that I'm having trouble contacting, and I see from their profiles that they haven't been on the board for a while. I'll see if I can convince the moderators to send a notification e-mail.
I've so far received responses from five of the participants, telling me which one they thought was the closest. At this point, the total number of matches is zero.
Moderator
Just a couple of thoughts on this "pick the profile you think most describes you" approach...
Isn't there a certain built-in bias involved? If you send someone four possible descriptions of himself, won't he tend to choose the one he wants to be most like him?
Also, won't the wording affect the choice? My sign, Taurus, is supposed to be stubborn (and I am). Give me two descriptions similar in almost all aspects; then have them describe "stubborn" as:
"You are tenacious and will stick with something until it's finished."
and
"You are pig-headed, obstinate, and don't know when to quit."
Guess which I'll pick?
(Sorry if this has been addressed before.)
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
Isaac Asimov
Moderation will be in purple.
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