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Thread: Will comet ison survive to perihelion?

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    Will comet ison survive to perihelion?

    Universe today has posted an article regarding a Dust jet on the sunward side of comet ison. Available at:-http://www.universetoday.com/102257/astronomers-detect-dust-feature-in-comet-isons-inner-coma/.

    I noted the following paragraph:-

    Ongoing observations seem to reveal this comet is ‘shedding’ quite a bit of mass, leaving astronomers to wonder if it will have enough body left to survive its perhihelion, the closest approach to the Sun on November 28, 2013.

    Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/102257/...#ixzz2TryN20Sm

    I read something similar in another article (sorry, can not currently find it online). My question is, might the comet not survive to perihelion.

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    Yes, it is possible that it could suffer the same fate as much-hyped Comet Elenin, and give up the ghost before perihelion. It is hard if not impossible to predict such an outcome this early.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hornblower View Post
    Yes, it is possible that it could suffer the same fate as much-hyped Comet Elenin, and give up the ghost before perihelion. It is hard if not impossible to predict such an outcome this early.
    Do you expect it to also be hit by a CME (what the wikipedia article says happened)?
    Et tu BAUT? Quantum mutatus ab illo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ara Pacis View Post
    Do you expect it to also be hit by a CME (what the wikipedia article says happened)?
    I have no means of estimating the probability of such an event.

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    Comet ison's fragments will hit Earth:Observatory of Lisbon

    http://www.scienceforums.net.nyud.ne...ory-of-lisbon/

    from the thread:

    They have leaked this in several forums, they also say that they will speak openly in about a month, after the comet passes a callibration point to verify their calculations.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I have no idea if there are rules for linking to other forums, but I thought this might be legit, and if so, important to know. I found the thread via a different forum that posted the link. I have no affiliation with the Observatory of Lisbon.

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    Is this for real?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    Comet ison's fragments will hit Earth:Observatory of Lisbon

    http://www.scienceforums.net.nyud.ne...ory-of-lisbon/

    from the thread:

    They have leaked this in several forums, they also say that they will speak openly in about a month, after the comet passes a callibration point to verify their calculations.

    I have no idea if there are rules for linking to other forums, but I thought this might be legit, and if so, important to know. I found the thread via a different forum that posted the link. I have no affiliation with the Observatory of Lisbon.
    Is this for real?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    Is this for real?
    not sure, but if you google the title of that thread there are several discussions about it. The one that I looked at was started a few days ago and is fairly lengthy. I didn't read the whole thing but there was a poster towards the end of it that might have been the source of the info.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    Is this for real?
    Okay, shock moment over. I looked this up, and it turns out that this, has been banded about since June. Sorry, but, first things first. A projected trajectory is not always the actual trajectory, even if it is worked out by tiger 2. Secondly, if this was the case, it would certainly be public by now I'm sure. Why would Lisbon wait, for a grand finale. Quite angry about this. Im getting tired of doomsday.
    Last edited by Concerned; 2013-Jul-19 at 11:54 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    not sure, but if you google the title of that thread there are several discussions about it. The one that I looked at was started a few days ago and is fairly lengthy. I didn't read the whole thing but there was a poster towards the end of it that might have been the source of the info.
    Hi, sorry, I did not read your response. I checked, this has been around since early June. I found nothing to indicate the validity of this or otherwise. I'm hoping its not the case, I would very much like to see this from a valid source. I don't think that a forum counts.

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    Hi again, a little more research produced this http://www.scienceforums.net/topic/7...-causes-panic/. It's from the same guy posting about the fragments of ISON. He appears to like striking quite a sensationalist tone. I think whilst there may be valid factors which will influence the comets trajectory, events are unlikely to fall as suggested.

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    I apologise if I came across as heavy.

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    I would suggest reading some of the comments in the thread which I added in the previous message. Comet ISON, does not appear as if it will ever be a threat to earth. I note from the thread that you posted, that the author is suggesting course changes etc caused by the sun. I'm sure this is possible to a certain extant, but, I'm also sure that this has been accounted for, and, that there is no threat to earth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    Is this for real?
    If you're concerned about it, you might consider a simple call to the observatory. I'm sure they have a phone number.
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    If you're concerned about it, you might consider a simple call to the observatory. I'm sure they have a phone number.
    I was momentarily. I considered emailing them for verification. However, I think I'll give it a miss.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    Hi, sorry, I did not read your response. I checked, this has been around since early June. I found nothing to indicate the validity of this or otherwise. I'm hoping its not the case, I would very much like to see this from a valid source. I don't think that a forum counts.
    yea, I noticed the June thread but haven't read it yet. I read the longer thread from a few days ago. I'd like to see it from another source also, but if you think about it, if they claimed it publicly they would be going out on a limb and might be held responsible if some people panic. It sort of makes sense that they might post it on a public forum anonymously just to get it out there so more would see it, and possibly verify. If it was true, would it ever eventually be revealed in the MSM? idk

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    But, then you must assume anonymous to be the observatory of Lisbon, as much as it could be Santa Claus or a teenager having a laugh. Anonymity removes validity. I can't see how they could be accountable, if it did hit it would not matter at all. posting on science forums is hardly making it public. This has been about since June, and its only being posted here now. Unless someone from the daily mail is reading the forum looking for their next story, no one other than forum readers would ever really know. I would also think that there is a greater danger by posting obscure statements to the public, with the notion of it gradually feeding through. It's careless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    yea, I noticed the June thread but haven't read it yet. I read the longer thread from a few days ago. I'd like to see it from another source also, but if you think about it, if they claimed it publicly they would be going out on a limb and might be held responsible if some people panic. It sort of makes sense that they might post it on a public forum anonymously just to get it out there so more would see it, and possibly verify. If it was true, would it ever eventually be revealed in the MSM? idk
    Well it would have to be revealed in the msm eventually. I think it might get noticeable at a point

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    yea, I noticed the June thread but haven't read it yet. I read the longer thread from a few days ago. I'd like to see it from another source also, but if you think about it, if they claimed it publicly they would be going out on a limb and might be held responsible if some people panic. It sort of makes sense that they might post it on a public forum anonymously just to get it out there so more would see it, and possibly verify. If it was true, would it ever eventually be revealed in the MSM? idk
    I don't think I would, being in the position of an observatory, release this anonymously, so that average joe can 'verify' it. I would send out to all my colleagues in the field and have them do the calculations for verification.

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    This just rings as being too careless to believe. Verification would be done in house.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    If you're concerned about it, you might consider a simple call to the observatory. I'm sure they have a phone number.
    They do, I checked that too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    I would suggest reading some of the comments in the thread which I added in the previous message. Comet ISON, does not appear as if it will ever be a threat to earth. I note from the thread that you posted, that the author is suggesting course changes etc caused by the sun. I'm sure this is possible to a certain extant, but, I'm also sure that this has been accounted for, and, that there is no threat to earth.
    I wasn't aware of that thread, I was referring to a thread at a different forum.

    I read a few comments in the thread you referenced (haven't read the whole thing yet) and noticed the op apparently started the cross on the Sun topic that traveled around the Internet a few months ago. That topic re: a coronal hole that was in the shape of a very misshapen cross. I thought it was silly but I can see how a very religious person would be interested. That topic never gained much traction at the forum I was posting at, but a few months prior to that, there was another coronal hole thread with religious connotations that was very popular on the Internet. I wouldn't be surprised if that person started that topic too.

    I figure that just because someone is religious, their views shouldn't be ignored esp. if they seem competent. I thought both the coronal hole topics were silly but I'm not sure about this one

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    I wasn't aware of that thread, I was referring to a thread at a different forum.

    I read a few comments in the thread you referenced (haven't read the whole thing yet) and noticed the op apparently started the cross on the Sun topic that traveled around the Internet a few months ago. That topic re: a coronal hole that was in the shape of a very misshapen cross. I thought it was silly but I can see how a very religious person would be interested. That topic never gained much traction at the forum I was posting at, but a few months prior to that, there was another coronal hole thread with religious connotations that was very popular on the Internet. I wouldn't be surprised if that person started that topic too.

    I figure that just because someone is religious, their views shouldn't be ignored esp. if they seem competent. I thought both the coronal hole topics were silly but I'm not sure about this one
    Hi. I did not read the entire thread, and, do not in any way fault you or anyone due to beliefs. Please, I have no wish to get involved in this form of conversation. I simply think that the statement regarding comet ISON as being some form of threat is inaccurate.

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    Reading the wiki on Comet ISON, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2012_S1, it looks like it is only 3 miles in diameter, and will pass earth at 39,000,000 miles. Even if it broke up, there's a tremendous amount of space out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rtsredux View Post
    . It sort of makes sense that they might post it on a public forum anonymously just to get it out there so more would see it, and possibly verify.idk
    In a science fiction movie perhaps. In the real world they would send it to other observatories to check, or would release it with error bars. People regularly announce that a certain asteroid might hit the earth, and they don't get accused of inciting panic. As long as others have checked the data, I don't see how they could.

    Plus, doing that "anonymously" but giving the name of your institution is just asking for an investigation.
    As above, so below

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    I could be wrong, but, ill never understand why people put such ideas out there. All the doomsday stuff, I'll never understand it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Concerned View Post
    I could be wrong, but, ill never understand why people put such ideas out there. All the doomsday stuff, I'll never understand it.
    Either do I. Some of it may just be what motivates pranksters. See how everyone reacted to what I did!
    As above, so below

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    Hmm, Tiger 2 shows up nowhere I can find on the internet as a supercomputer.
    University owned observatory, making the secret sauce propriety model that cannot be named unlikely.
    Arbitrary and confused definition of the Sun's atmosphere (the chromosphere is only a few thousand km thick, not 2 million, the corona extends way further so the comet is already in it)
    Claims for models that are beyond what can be done (apparently we are able to predict how a comet is going to fragment, how the ice on it will sublime and how this will affect each piece's trajectory)

    Essentially if this were someone professional leaking it (which would be a stupid way to do things anyway) they would do a better job. This looks like just another uninformed YouTube/Wikipedia hero mashing links together, misquoting stuff, echoing the 'fringe' forums and talking rubbish.

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    Suddenly, everything makes sense. HAARP is part of a program to try to push the comet away and the Chemtrails are intended to help the atmosphere deflect the fragments that get through.
    Et tu BAUT? Quantum mutatus ab illo.

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    Until it is clear that a mainstream observatory has evidence that comets fragments are going to hit Earth, I am calling such a claim non-mainstream. That means that you can debunk it as much as you like in this thread, but if anyone takes any sort of position to advocate this belief, their post will be moved to ATM or CT. And no, links to some person posting on some other forum do not constitute evidence.
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