# Thread: What's the percentage of the world population that dies each year?

1. ## What's the percentage of the world population that dies each year?

Just curious because since 8 percent of the world believes they will die on December 21, 2012, I was curious as to what percentage of the world would be dead by then

2. Originally Posted by parallaxicality
Just curious because since 8 percent of the world believes they will die on December 21, 2012,
Where do you get this figure from? Is it representative of the whole world, or just one country?

3. Originally Posted by parallaxicality
Just curious because since 8 percent of the world believes they will die on December 21, 2012, I was curious as to what percentage of the world would be dead by then
Using figures from Wikipedia's pages on population growth and world population (which granted may not be the most accurate numbers out there) a ballpark would be a death rate of about 0.81% per year, using a total current population of 7.033 billion people and a death rate of 57 million per year (2011 figure).

4. Deaths per year is about 56 million so about 0.002% of the people of the Earth die each day.

About 150,000 people die and about 360,000 people are born every day.

Population is 7,021,836,029 (July 2012 est.)

"7.99 deaths/1,000 population
note: this rate results in about 107 worldwide deaths per minute or 1.8 deaths every second (July 2012 est.)"

A bit of math....about 0.002 %/day

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/xx.html

6. Originally Posted by Perikles
Where do you get this figure from? Is it representative of the whole world, or just one country?
It's an Ipsos poll of more than 16,000 people in 21 countries.

7. The poll results aren't surprising. The History Channel has been reporting it as fact for three years.

8. Thanks for that - I find it really amazing. Interesting difference between countries - China 20% and Germany 4%. Another indication that so many people will believe just about anything.

9. Originally Posted by parallaxicality
Just curious because since 8 percent of the world believes they will die on December 21, 2012, I was curious as to what percentage of the world would be dead by then
I think an easy way to start is to think that an average person lives maybe 60 years, so one out of 60 should die each year. That would be like 1.3% or something. That would be the figure in a static population. But since the population of the earth is growing, there are more young people than old people, hence the lower rate of 0.81% according to Wikipedia.

10. Originally Posted by primummobile
The poll results aren't surprising. The History Channel has been reporting it as fact for three years.
Is the History Channel available in languages other than English? I sort of wonder why the figure is so high in China. Is it because Chinese people watch the History Channel a lot?

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Originally Posted by HenrikOlsen
Deaths per year is about 56 million so about 0.002% of the people of the Earth die each day.

About 150,000 people die and about 360,000 people are born every day.
That's a 2.5:1 increase of new borns to deaths per day. I don't know how that works out as a yearly % rate of population increase.

12. Originally Posted by potoole
That's a 2.5:1 increase of new borns to deaths per day. I don't know how that works out as a yearly % rate of population increase.
Well, there's a calculator on my computer, so it's not that hard. The addition to the population per day is 210,000. Multiplied by 365 is 76,650,000. The world's population is about 7 billion. So it's about 1% per year.

13. I wonder what a similar poll conducted in the first week of 2013 would reveal.

Who remembers Harold Camping a year after the non-Rapture of May 21, 2011?

Who1 was that woman that communicated with the Zetans, discussion of which took up so much time and space here a decade ago?

And, when the next well publicized apocalyptic idea finds its way into receptive2 minds, will the numbers return to the ones reported in the poll?

1. Rhetorical - I don't really care.
2. I considered many other adjectives here.

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Originally Posted by Jens
Well, there's a calculator on my computer, so it's not that hard. The addition to the population per day is 210,000. Multiplied by 365 is 76,650,000. The world's population is about 7 billion. So it's about 1% per year.
Thank you, I suppose I could have done that, too.

But I suppose I was trying to make some kind of point. Human population continues to rise, but for how much longer? Will the rise ever slow down? Can Earth, and nature sustain such a continual rise?

And yes, by golly, I know how to use a calculator. By golly, I can even use a slide rule. And, by golly, I know a few tings about these computer apparatusses.

15. Originally Posted by Jens
I think an easy way to start is to think that an average person lives maybe 60 years, so one out of 60 should die each year. That would be like 1.3% or something. That would be the figure in a static population. But since the population of the earth is growing, there are more young people than old people, hence the lower rate of 0.81% according to Wikipedia.
I doubt the average person lives to 60, not with all the people who die young in the third world.

16. Originally Posted by Frog march
I doubt the average person lives to 60, not with all the people who die young in the third world.
Then I think you doubt wrong, because in fact I was being conservative. It's really closer to 70 as a world average. In China it's about 73, and India 64, and there you have a third of the world's population.

17. Originally Posted by potoole
Thank you, I suppose I could have done that, too.

But I suppose I was trying to make some kind of point. Human population continues to rise, but for how much longer? Will the rise ever slow down? Can Earth, and nature sustain such a continual rise?
The rate was 2% per year 30 years ago, so not only will it slow down, it IS actually slowing down.

18. Originally Posted by Frog march
I doubt the average person lives to 60, not with all the people who die young in the third world.
African infant death rates have been dropping by 4.4% per year since 2005, things are changing for the better there as well.
Note that world wide average infant mortality1 has dropped from 165 deaths per 1000 in 1900 to around 7 deaths per 1000 now.

And 60 is definitely less that the world average.

1) infants defined as <5 years old.
Last edited by HenrikOlsen; 2012-Aug-16 at 12:10 PM.

19. Originally Posted by Jens
Is the History Channel available in languages other than English? I sort of wonder why the figure is so high in China. Is it because Chinese people watch the History Channel a lot?
I don't know if they watch it a lot, but the History Channel has been available in Asia since at least 2007.

20. I'd like to know a bit more about the demographics of the poll's respondents. While I don't think that credulity is a flaw that can be strongly correlated with most demographic parameters, I would expect there to be somewhat lower levels of credulity in people with scientific or technical educations. On the other hand, some very highly educated have possessed some quite idiotic beliefs, e.g., the writings on race by William Shockley.

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Regarding the 8% number, I heard about a study that showed that in almost any poll, each option in a multiple choice question will receive at least 3% to 5% of the responses. I'm sure you can create an example where this isn't the case, but it is a lower limit on any normal poll. Some people don't have an opinion, and will randomly guess. How the question is worded is very important. Also, which option is listed first or last also influences the results. It is a bit disturbing that so many people (even if it is just the 3% excess over the 5% base) actually believe this stuff. I suspect that they are people who have religious views that expect the world to end soon and this Mayan thing is just another data point supporting this.

22. The question asked was "The Mayan calendar, which some say ‘ends’ in 2012, marks the end of the world". Whether it was a "YES/NO" or "Strongly Agree... Agree... Disagree... Strongly disagree" I don't kniow

I actually think the true number may be even higher, as 2012 is huge in India, and India wasn't one of the countries sampled.

23. Originally Posted by primummobile
I don't know if they watch it a lot, but the History Channel has been available in Asia since at least 2007.
I think, however, that the international versions of THC, Discovery and it multiple kin, and such channels may show less of the complete nonsense that they dump on us here in the US. My wife wanted to watch "Gold Rush" last night. They were even more clueless in Guyana than they've been in Alaska and The Country They Dare Not Name.

I'm a bit surprised the death rate is as low as it is.

24. Originally Posted by Trebuchet
I'm a bit surprised the death rate is as low as it is.
Postponing death is one of the things people really like spending money on. Including tax money.
A more than 20-fold drop in infant mortality in just one century is really shifting things.

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The life expectancy at birth of the world is 67.2 years
Inverse of that is 0.0149.
1.49% of the world population dies each year.
Last edited by Squink; 2012-Aug-19 at 06:01 PM. Reason: extra word

26. 1.49% of the world population who was born then.

It's a changing percentage since the total population growth rate is changing.

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Originally Posted by Trebuchet
I think, however, that the international versions of THC, Discovery and it multiple kin, and such channels may show less of the complete nonsense that they dump on us here in the US.
I think the shows are broadcasted with some delay outside the US. The History Channel includes a small percentage of local productions.

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