Sending a manned mission to Gliese

[Blackhole]

Suppose the following two premises are true:

1. We discover that one of the planets surrounding Gliese is capable of supporting human life today, without any terra-forming needed whatsoever. We can breath the air, drink the water, eat the plants and animals.
2. We also discover, on that same day, that there is an unavoidable asteroid the size of Mars that will smash into Earth exactly 100 years from today, annihilating all known forms of life instantly.

Hypothetical question: Assuming the above premises were true, do you think the human race would be capable of designing, engineering, building and launching a manned ship that would successfully transport humans to Gliese, before we were wiped out by asteroids? Keep in mind, the entire human race, governments, agencies, scientists, everyone would come together combining all of Earth's resources to try and accomplish this task. Funding is not an issue. Do you think we would be successful? What would be the greatest technological challenges that we'd need to overcome?

Somethings to keep in mind:
1. Gliese is ~22 light years from our solar system.
2. There would not be enough time to send a probe to scout the solar system before launching our manned ship. However, we could send one a couple years in advance to scout the 'landing'.
3. Depending on how fast we can go, we may need to have babies on way there.

Coles Notes: With the entire human race working together and combining resources, could we build a spaceship that could successfully transport humans to Gliese in 100 years or less?

[Swift]

Personally, I'd say your scenario as you describe it is much more science fiction than science fact, and I find some of your premises/assumptions to be a little too fanciful.

But, given the conditions you describe, and limiting myself to a yes/no answer, I have to say the answer is no. I suspect we might make a try, but there are entirely too many gaps in our technology, and will be for a long time to come, for the answer to be a successful yes. Unless someone comes up with some magical FTL, you are talking a generation ship that would have to work for a century or more.

Given what you describe, we would be much better off spending the time to try to change the course of the asteroid (a very tiny change would have a big effect over 100 years) or set-up a colony on Mars.

[Paul Wally]

I'm wondering if it wouldn't be easier (require less energy) to divert the asteroid in some way.

On the other hand, I think the discovery of another Earth 22 light years away would be sufficient to get us working full steam on inter-stellar propulsion technology. In other words, what I'm saying is that you didn't have to bring in the asteroid drama as an additional motivating factor.

[R.A.F.]

Given what you describe, we would be much better off spending the time to try to change the course of the asteroid (a very tiny change would have a big effect over 100 years) or set-up a colony on Mars.

I agree....I would think that 100 years is plenty of time to divert the asteroid. What the OP is proposing would be "infinitly" harder to accomplish.

...and who would "choose" who would get to go?

[mutleyeng]

Its a bit difficult to think of a scenario where the only choice would be to do nothing or try to travel 22 Ly somewhere - even with extreme hypotheticals.
Even if you ignore that, Im not sure you would have time in 100yr to develop sufficiently efficient life support.

[NEOWatcher]

...and who would "choose" who would get to go?

Well; That would be accomplished with a computer, and involve a ten to one ratio of women to men with the women selected for their stimulating sexual characteristics and the men selected for youth, health, intellectual capabilities and importance in business and government.

[Rhaedas]

I don't see a generation ship as a practical choice either, even if there is a guaranteed prize at the end for its success. Better to try and create living conditions elsewhere in the solar system, and hope that measurements are off enough for a near miss of Earth. Smaller bodies I'd suggest first thing try and figure out a way to start affecting the incoming object, but I don't think anything we do at our stage of development would affect a Mars sized body enough, even in 100 years. I know that a little delta v for a long time adds up, but given the premise of a direct hit, that's a lot of change for a lot of mass. But why throw everything into leaving a perfectly good solar system for a total unknown that is a long, long distance away.

[swampyankee]

Well; That would be accomplished with a computer, and involve a ten to one ratio of women to men with the women selected for their stimulating sexual characteristics and the men selected for youth, health, intellectual capabilities and importance in business and government.

You mean, essentially, chose the richest men and supermodels?

Who would actually do the work?

Less frivolously, we currently don't have the technology to permit a closed environmental system for 100 days (or probably 100 hours), let alone 100 years. We have no likely technology to permit a 22 ly voyage in 100 years, and, politically, the people who run many of the World's governments probably too stupid and shortsighted to do anything but try to figure out how to use the asteroid to poke a stick in somebody else's eye. Look at many of their reactions to AGW.

[schlaugh]

Human nature being what it is, I'd reckon we'd dither until about 10 years remain, and then we'd get off our collective rear ends and - maybe - do something. We already have relatively imminent problems (global warming, eventual energy depletion, deforestation, soil depletion, etc.) and not much being done about them in great substance, and certainly not on the scale required to dodge an asteroid or travel 22 ly.

[R.A.F.]

You mean, essentially, chose the richest men and supermodels?

Who would actually do the work?

I think he's joking...wasn't what he posted from the movie Dr. Strangelove?

[Solfe]

You mean, essentially, chose the richest men and supermodels?

Who would actually do the work?

Dr. Strangelove for starters.

[NEOWatcher]

You mean, essentially, chose the richest men and supermodels?

Perhaps I was a little to subtle with my reference. Maybe if I used a German accent.

[swampyankee]

I think he's joking...wasn't what he posted from the movie Dr. Strangelove?

I think he was, too, but I also think that's how the decision would actually be made. 8-(

[Solfe]

...and who would "choose" who would get to go?

I would use an essay format. Judges from around the world would select the candidates based on their ability to describe their importance for the survival of the human race. The selected persons would receive advance training en-route to the asteroid.

[mutleyeng]

talking of movies, I knew this rung a few very distant bells from those sunday matinee movies on TV
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Wo...de_(1951_film)

[Solfe]

Perhaps I was a little to subtle with my reference. Maybe if I used a German accent.

I think the phrase "Human speciems" could have worked too.

[R.A.F.]

We already have relatively imminent problems...

Your "comparisons" really don't compare.

[Rhaedas]

talking of movies, I knew this rung a few very distant bells from those sunday matinee movies on TV
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Wo...de_(1951_film)

I liked the books better. Yes, there was a sequel, After Worlds Collide, but It didn't have the same impact as the first. Pun intended.

[Paul Wally]

I know the the focus here is on inter-stellar travel, but the problem of diverting the asteroid is interesting too. If this asteroid is essentially a Mars-sized planet then perhaps if it still has magma underneath its crust what if we could pierce that crust to create a large volcano. Could such a volcano produce enough thrust to divert the planet a little bit, or do I have the physics wrong?

[Ara Pacis]

Could it be done? We could probably get something launched. Would it work. Too many unknowns. Of course, there's no reason to take off for Gliese ASAP. Maybe we'd go there eventually, but why waste time on it initially. Spend that energy making more long-term space habitats that just orbit the Earth or Mars or Venus or the sun, and try to get as many people off planet and into those before the asteroid hits. Then you have all the time in the universe to think of a way to get a ship to Gliese.

[Solfe]

Could it be done? We could probably get something launched. Would it work. Too many unknowns. Of course, there's no reason to take off for Gliese ASAP. Maybe we'd go there eventually, but why waste time on it initially. Spend that energy making more long-term space habitats that just orbit the Earth or Mars or Venus or the sun, and try to get as many people off planet and into those before the asteroid hits. Then you have all the time in the universe to think of a way to get a ship to Gliese.

I still like my idea of sending the most self-important people on Earth on a ship to slam into the asteroid. It just works on so many different levels.

[Ara Pacis]

I still like my idea of sending the most self-important people on Earth on a ship to slam into the asteroid. It just works on so many different levels.

Shall we christen it "New Washington, DC"? (DC standing for Diverting Catastrophe, of course.)

[Solfe]

Shall we christen it "New Washington, DC"? (DC standing for Diverting Catastrophe, of course.)

This is an international mission, many people would be fighting for the rights to name it. I would suggest that we use the essay format again but this time the essays would be written by the crew and only once they were safely on their way.

I would expect some arguing and grandstanding and hopefully the ship would reach its destination before a name was selected. It would save us the trouble of renaming a city down here. For historical purposes I guess we could just call the ship "Good Job."

[Daffy]

... and importance in business and government.

Um---seriously?

Ah! I should have read the whole thread first.

[IsaacKuo]

I just have one thing to say:

There are thousands of stars named "Gliese"! It's a freaking catalogue of stars!

There's a reason why there's a number behind "Gliese 581" or whatever other star you may or may not refer to within the catalogue. Without it, you aren't talking about one specific star.

(If I had the time and inclination, there are a lot of other things I'd have to say in this thread.)

[Swift]

...and who would "choose" who would get to go?

Start with CQ owners, then admins and moderators, then membership, based upon post count.

[IsaacKuo]

Oh, and one other thing--the ship should be named the Bark. (Kudos to you if you can figure out why. And also, you're a nerd.)

[Noclevername]

As long as we don't send away vital persons such as telephone sanitizers.

EDIT; D'oh! Isaac beat me to the joke!

And yes, I'm a nerd.

[schlaugh]

Your "comparisons" really don't compare.

Of course. But those problems I cite aren't hypothetical and can be observed vs. a threat that the average person can't see let alone fully understand, even if such a threat means extinction. I'm just saying as a race we tend to procrastinate on global problems. And I would like to be wrong, even if they won't let me on the ship as a supermodel for support stockings.

[R.A.F.]

Start with CQ owners, then admins and moderators, then membership, based upon post count.

...at least the first page.