Do you think I might ever go to space?

[Drbuzz0]

I'm writing this question from my own perspective, but of course it could apply to anyone else of a similar age.

I'd like to visit space. It's actually one of the things I'd want to do more than anything else. It is primarily because weightlessness looks amazing, but also for the view of the earth and simply the experience of leaving our planet. Sub-orbital flight seems rather fleeting, and while I'd take it, a few hours or more in orbit is what I'd really dream of. LEO would be fine. Sure, I'd like to go to the moon or mars, but lets not be too unreasonable.

I'm not an astronaut nor do I have any intention of becoming a professional one or joining the air force or working for a spaceflight company. Hence, I'd be most likely to go as a "space tourist"

I'm 30 years old. I'm healthy and baring an accident or major illness, I would expect to be around for another 50 years or so. I might even be around for 70 and if there are medical breakthroughs, even longer is not out of the question.

Right now, my employment situation and activities don't leave me with a lot of money on hand, but given my background, sector and plans, I don't think it's unreasonable to suppose I'll achieve the level of being "upper middle class" and have a solid salary in the six figures by the tire I am ready to retire, if not sooner.

I might become wealthy, should I be successful in enterprise. By wealthy I don't mean billionaire-level or anything near that. I might well become rich enough to own a yacht or an airplane, but not likely rich enough to own a private jet. (I'm not saying I will, only that the probability of achieving such success is not an unreasonable aspiration)

I would like to take a trip to space. I'd be willing to pay quite a bit for it. I'd be willing to blow a large chunk of my retirement on it or take out a loan that would take me a few years to repay. I'd be willing to forgo vacations for several years to make it happen.

So to put it another way: Will orbital travel become accessible to those who are not fantastically wealthy in my lifetime? Or, for that matter, any of ours?


We don't know, but what is your guess? I'd be interested to hear.

[mutleyeng]

I think you stand a very good chance - no messy divorces though

[John Jaksich]

Personally, my opinion is that---> the commoner stands less of a chance of getting into space than those who have the political connections to get past the red-tape. I, personally, am unable to go but I would like to see more science related projects related to space exploration.

[KaiYeves]

I think you definitely have a very good chance. See you up there!

[Swift]

As the question does not have a simple, straight-forward answer, and will likely lead to an extended discussion, I've moved the thread from Q&A to Space Exploration

[R.A.F.]

Will orbital travel become accessible to those who are not fantastically wealthy in my lifetime? Or, for that matter, any of ours?

I seriously doubt it...not within the next 100 years or so...not at the "rate" we are proceeding.

[aquitaine]

So to put it another way: Will orbital travel become accessible to those who are not fantastically wealthy in my lifetime? Or, for that matter, any of ours?

The answer is yes, for the same reason that 90 years ago only the rich could fly on airplanes and today it's accessible to most people: Capitalism. Even though much of the basic technology that we use today was initially government funded (namely jets), it still took competition between private enterprises to bring the prices down to a level we could afford. The same thing is now starting to happen in space, and we are already seeing prices come down quite considerably.

[Noclevername]

I seriously doubt it...not within the next 100 years or so...not at the "rate" we are proceeding.

Fisrt, the rate at which we are proceeding is that the first private cargo rocket just docked with the ISS, and the company that accomplished that is heavily into developing personnel transport.

Second, will the rate we have now really last 100 years? It didn't during the last 100.

[Antice]

If you had asked this question 5 years ago i would have said flat no. But the winds of change seem to be blowing again. so barring anything truly bad happening to our civilization, then yes. i think it is quite likely that it will be possible for a middle income person to hitch a ride to LEO and back if that person did indeed save up all his vacation pay for several years, (and borrowed a little extra on the house probably)
It wont be cheap. but if stuff like skylon pans out then one could conceivably get into space if one really did try hard enough to do so.

[R.A.F.]

Fisrt, the rate at which we are proceeding is that the first private cargo rocket just docked with the ISS, and the company that accomplished that is heavily into developing personnel transport.

Second, will the rate we have now really last 100 years? It didn't during the last 100.

That's the great thing about unevidenced speculation....everyone's opinions are "justifiable".

[R.A.F.]

I liken this question to asking "when will man land on Mars", in 1972. I would imagine everyone would have said that by 2000 we would most certainly be there.

Guess what?....

[Noclevername]

That's the great thing about unevidenced speculation....everyone's opinions are "justifiable".

I made no speculation or opinion. I stated a fact, and asked a question.

[R.A.F.]

Fisrt, the rate at which we are proceeding is that the first private cargo rocket just docked with the ISS, and the company that accomplished that is heavily into developing personnel transport.

The speculation being that this will continue and advance, and you can't possibily know that as if it were fact.

...will the rate we have now really last 100 years? It didn't during the last 100.

Actually, without a viable reason, I suspect the "pace" will slow...

[Noclevername]

The speculation being that this will continue and advance, and you can't possibily know that as if it were fact.

Never said I did, why would you think that? It seems the likliest outcome, extrapolating from what is currently happening.

ETA: I think I get the misunderstanding now. What I actually said was a fact: "the first private cargo rocket just docked with the ISS, and the company that accomplished that is heavily into developing personnel transport". The speculation that you derived from my statement was of course speculation.

Actually, without a viable reason, I suspect the "pace" will slow...

The reason is competition for money; numerous spacecraft companies are in a race to develop private transportation and space tourism. The market is there, but untapped.

Why do you think the pace will slow?

[Trebuchet]

Like most others, I voted "solid chance". I'm about 30 years older. At this point, I could actually afford a Virgin Galactic ride, although I probably couldn't pass the physical. I think that'll only get better.

[R.A.F.]

Never said I did, why would you think that? It seems the likliest outcome, extrapolating from what is currently happening.

Exactly what I was saying in 1972, about reaching Mars by 2000.

ETA: I think I get the misunderstanding now. What I actually said was a fact: "the first private cargo rocket just docked with the ISS, and the company that accomplished that is heavily into developing personnel transport". The speculation that you derived from my statement was of course speculation.

Yeah....sorry for not being clearer.

The reason is competition for money; numerous spacecraft companies are in a race to develop private transportation and space tourism. The market is there, but untapped

The assumption is that a "sufficient" market will be there in the future. Other than space entheusists, (some of which won't want to fly to space for various reasons) there will have to be a whole lot of "ordinary" people willing to fly to space...also, I just can't see the price (the OP question) coming down enough to appeal to the common person...not for a long, long time.

Why do you think the pace will slow?

I just don't see space tourism as being the "save all" of the space program. We need goals, and it just doesn't seem that people care anymore about goals.

I certainly do not like it...I just think it's the way it will be.

[SkepticJ]

Until companies develop means to get to LEO without using rockets so much, or can make them orders of magnitude lighter, I don't see it happening.

Throwing mass away at high speed is expensive. LOX and fuel isn't cheap. Rockets blast it out the back like it's free.

If that's how airplanes worked, no one would ride them. We'd still be crossing the oceans in airships, or ships.

For Average Joe/Jane to be able to afford* a trip to LEO, I think the ticket price would have to be the equivalent of what $10,000 is now.

I very much hope I am proved wrong, but I don't see it happening in the next thirty years. Keep in mind that the X-Prize was won almost a decade ago--see how fast time flies? Where did the '00s go?

Unless someone makes a skyhook. Or a space elevator. Or something like that.

*Assuming they're okay with taking their vacations near home for years.

[danscope]

Well, there is a solid ...albeit slim chance that Dr Buzzo will win the lottery, and then he can have the luxury of buying a ride, even the ride of his dreams. It runs into money. But....... once you have the money, you start thinking about the re-entry risks and such ,
and you're more like the guy who signed up for a parachute ride and when it's time to jump has second thoughts and third thoughts etc..... Hmmm....

[Noclevername]

Well, there is a solid ...albeit slim chance that Dr Buzzo will win the lottery, and then he can have the luxury of buying a ride, even the ride of his dreams. It runs into money. But....... once you have the money, you start thinking about the re-entry risks and such ,
and you're more like the guy who signed up for a parachute ride and when it's time to jump has second thoughts and third thoughts etc..... Hmmm....

And yet people do go skydiving, every day, knowing the risks.

[mutleyeng]

For Average Joe/Jane to be able to afford* a trip to LEO, I think the ticket price would have to be the equivalent of what $10,000 is now.
.

If you are talking 10K then i would agree. My reading of the way the opening post was phrased i was looking more towards half a million

[Drbuzz0]

Like most others, I voted "solid chance". I'm about 30 years older. At this point, I could actually afford a Virgin Galactic ride, although I probably couldn't pass the physical. I think that'll only get better.

I'd expect I could afford one too. Well, not right now, but give me a decade or so to save up. I might need a loan too, but my credit is good and I'd be willing to spend another decade paying down the debt on it. I've considered it.

But then again, last time I checked, Virgin Galactic has not actually sent a single regular fare-paying passenger up as of yet. Several test flights and everything, but no regular passengers. They've taken plenty of deposits. I'm not saying it won't happen, but they did say they were planning on starting full service by 2009, didn't they? I'm not about to call it vaporware, but.... well it's starting to look like it well could be.


One quick thing: This is admittedly speculation and is based on making some reasonable projections and guesses. Some of us here are going to be wrong in what we predict. So lets all agree to something: Everyone who posts to this thread has to promise that in 30 or 50 years, they won't comb this for examples of predictions that, in hindsight, look completely boneheaded and then use that to lampoon the poor saps who made their best guess back in 2012, ok?

[R.A.F.]

If you are talking 10K then i would agree.

So modifying the OP question a tad it becomes...."how long will it be before a person can fly to orbit for 10 thousand dollars??"


...and I think it will be a very long time...

[R.A.F.]

I'Everyone who posts to this thread has to promise that in 30 or 50 years...

Problem is..in 50 years I will most certainly be dead.
...30 years....maybe not.

[SkepticJ]

We need goals, and it just doesn't seem that people care anymore about goals.

Postmodern pessimism on the Left, and eschatological fever dreams on the Right.

Combined with the multiplication of Bread and Circuses. Who needs exploration and advancement? We've got movies with giant fighting robots, and mammary glands and explosions. We've arrived.

[mutleyeng]

So modifying the OP question a tad it becomes...."how long will it be before a person can fly to orbit for 10 thousand dollars??"
.

right now, i do not see any proposed architecture that would facilitate that.
If you listen to Elon Musk, he is talking about trips to Mars (Landings included) for a price affordable to the average man if they re mortgaged their house. He thinks he can achieve that within 2 decades - I am a little skeptical myself

[Noclevername]

One quick thing: This is admittedly speculation and is based on making some reasonable projections and guesses. Some of us here are going to be wrong in what we predict. So lets all agree to something: Everyone who posts to this thread has to promise that in 30 or 50 years, they won't comb this for examples of predictions that, in hindsight, look completely boneheaded and then use that to lampoon the poor saps who made their best guess back in 2012, ok?

If I'm still around then, I promise.

So modifying the OP question a tad it becomes...."how long will it be before a person can fly to orbit for 10 thousand dollars??"

I won't speculate on specific dollar amounts. I can't even be sure if $10,000 will buy a cup of coffee by The Future.

[R.A.F.]

I won't speculate on specific dollar amounts. I can't even be sure if $10,000 will buy a cup of coffee by The Future.

Well, if you frequent Starbucks, The Future could be here sooner than we imagine. (smile face with a cup of "jo")

[Noclevername]

(smile face with a cup of "jo")

:-)
~D

[Jens]

The reason is competition for money; numerous spacecraft companies are in a race to develop private transportation and space tourism. The market is there, but untapped.

I basically agree. There clearly is a market, even if I don't understand why people would even want to go! I certainly wouldn't want to spend my money on being weightless for seven minutes in a metal cylinder. So I think it's quite possible.

The issue I see is, there could be a bad accident. And if there is a bad accident, then there will be repercussions, and probably regulators will come down hard and who knows how long things could be delayed.

[SkepticJ]

I basically agree. There clearly is a market, even if I don't understand why people would even want to go! I certainly wouldn't want to spend my money on being weightless for seven minutes in a metal cylinder. So I think it's quite possible.

The issue I see is, there could be a bad accident. And if there is a bad accident, then there will be repercussions, and probably regulators will come down hard and who knows how long things could be delayed.

LEO would provide longer than seven min. of weightlessness. It generally provides it for as long as you want.

There will be a bad accident. Murphy's law, and all that.