How long until we have colonize Mars?

[Blackhole]

How long do you think it will take humans to colonize Mars? For the sake of discussion I will define 'colonize' as the point in time at which a human lands on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life. Do you think humans have the capacity to build an infrastructure on Mars that is reliable enough for a human to live out the rest of their natural life? If yes, how long do you think it will take us to accomplish this feat?

A prerequisite for colonizing Mars is to first land on Mars (although in Theory these two events could happen simultaneously). So, I will make this a two part question:

1. How long will it take us to land a human on Mars?
2. How long thereafter will the first person land on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life?

Bonus question: Assuming we do land a human on Mars, which organization/agency/government do you believe will be the first to accomplish this feat? Chinese Space Program? SpaceX? Nasa? ESA? Roscosmos? Bill Nye the science guy?

[ravens_cry]

If we actually funded gave it funding, I bet we could do it in 50-100 years. The chance of such a think happening are more or less nil unfortunately.

[Weltraum]

If we actually funded gave it funding, I bet we could do it in 50-100 years. The chance of such a think happening are more or less nil unfortunately.

The money-controlling politicos will change their minds about it when the earth reaches the point of mass extinction again.

[Glom]

Maybe we'll send prisoners there.

These Arestralians will be condemned to live out their natural lives on surface of a dead planet, but they will eventually build a nation that will revolutionise the daytime TV industry.

Also Kylie.

[mutleyeng]

My worthless opinion is that no one will build a super heavy launch vehicle, so it will be constrained by how long it takes to solve the challenges to build up a space infrastructure to facilitate it.
At least 50 yrs for footprints on Mars, maybe less for phobos. I dont think a colony is likely for several hundred years yet.

[Amber Robot]

At least 50 yrs for footprints on Mars, maybe less for phobos.

Are you suggesting that people will land on Phobos before they land on Mars?

[mutleyeng]

Are you suggesting that people will land on Phobos before they land on Mars?

yes. Ive heard NASA folk suggest it a more likely first target than straight to Mars

[Noclevername]

yes. Ive heard NASA folk suggest it a more likely first target than straight to Mars

It does make more sense from a practical standpoint, unfortunately I doubt most science-illiterate politicians would understand getting people that close to Mars and then not landing on it. And they hold the purse strings.

[Noclevername]

It does make more sense from a practical standpoint, unfortunately I doubt most science-illiterate politicians would understand getting people that close to Mars and then not landing on it. And they hold the purse strings.

I take it back-- we may use Phobos as a platform to prepare for a Mars landing. It's a natural space station.

[pg_chelsea]

Maybe we'll set foot on Mars but I doubt we'll ever colonize another planet.

I think/hope we'll colonize actual space because it will be advantageous.

[Noclevername]

Maybe we'll set foot on Mars but I doubt we'll ever colonize another planet.

I think/hope we'll colonize actual space because it will be advantageous.

Both will probably happen. There are an awful lot of people who want Mars.

[John Jaksich]

How long do you think it will take humans to colonize Mars? For the sake of discussion I will define 'colonize' as the point in time at which a human lands on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life. Do you think humans have the capacity to build an infrastructure on Mars that is reliable enough for a human to live out the rest of their natural life? If yes, how long do you think it will take us to accomplish this feat?

A prerequisite for colonizing Mars is to first land on Mars (although in Theory these two events could happen simultaneously). So, I will make this a two part question:

1. How long will it take us to land a human on Mars?
2. How long thereafter will the first person land on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life?

Bonus question: Assuming we do land a human on Mars, which organization/agency/government do you believe will be the first to accomplish this feat? Chinese Space Program? SpaceX? Nasa? ESA? Roscosmos? Bill Nye the science guy?

Although I am somewhat hopeful of an eventual colonization the Solar System---the current problems of the Earth have become so pressing that--it may take a several "revolutions of new and better technology" to overcome the current mess that we have put ourselves.

In short, we may need to re-invest in our youth--so they want to pursue Science and Engineering related degrees. This would put an inevitable critical mass of people who face a make-or-break proposition of wanting to invest themselves into entrepreneurial "science". I hope I am making some sense here. The American spirit has always been associated with situations which "true revolutions of technology have been" breaks from status quo technology.

[Sardonicone]

Although I am somewhat hopeful of an eventual colonization the Solar System---the current problems of the Earth have become so pressing that--it may take a several "revolutions of new and better technology" to overcome the current mess that we have put ourselves.

In short, we may need to re-invest in our youth--so they want to pursue Science and Engineering related degrees. This would put an inevitable critical mass of people who face a make-or-break proposition of wanting to invest themselves into entrepreneurial "science". I hope I am making some sense here. The American spirit has always been associated with situations which "true revolutions of technology have been" breaks from status quo technology.

You can't just throw money at the young and expect them to be inspired. A whole generation of innovators were inspired due to the Moon Landings. Make a commitment to go to Mars, and you'll get inspired youth.

[Noclevername]

Make a commitment to go to Mars, and you'll get inspired youth.

Several such commitments have been made-- and broken-- since the end of Apollo. I think it'll take more than yet another politician's promise-- it'll take an actual landing to inspire today's jaded youth. Action, not words, is what they'll respond to.

[Sardonicone]

Several such commitments have been made-- and broken-- since the end of Apollo. I think it'll take more than yet another politician's promise-- it'll take an actual landing to inspire today's jaded youth. Action, not words, is what they'll respond to.

I apologize for not being clear. That's what I meant by "commitment". Idle talk and soaring rhetoric do not, in my mind, constitute an actual commitment.

[Noclevername]

I apologize for not being clear. That's what I meant by "commitment". Idle talk and soaring rhetoric do not, in my mind, constitute an actual commitment.

Fair enough.

[danscope]

Gravity well is a big problem. ...you know....robots have already landed on Mars.
Getting people back into orbit isn't easy.

[ravens_cry]

Gravity well is a big problem. ...you know....robots have already landed on Mars.
Getting people back into orbit isn't easy.

On the plus side there is plenty of water and carbon dioxide on Mars for not only ISRU resources for the duration but also to fuel the rocket for elsewhere.

[John Mendenhall]

300 years.

[Doodler]

A century, provided private industry gets involved. Government funded colonization? Heh, the photosphere of the Sun will be knocking on the edge of Earth's atmosphere before the great unwashed give any government license to put colonies in space.

[Noclevername]

I would say sometime before the end of this century someone will attempt a Mars colony. Whether or not it is a successful attempt, we'll have to wait and see.

[antoniseb]

I think it is between 100 and 300 years (barring disasters). I don't think it will happen until after there is significant mining and manufacturing on the Moon (and/or asteroids). I also think some kind of fission or fusion based propulsion will need to be developed before people go there with enough equipment to stay.

[TheBrett]

Probably sometime between 75 and 150 years from now. I think we'll eventually have autonomous robots and compact manufacturing/resource processing/extraction good enough so that we'll just send them to Mars ahead of time, have them build a base for people to live in, and then we just have to pay the costs of sending people there. I say "75 years" because I think it's more likely that people would use the same technology to build space habitats before far-off planet-side colonies (particularly since Earth-orbiting space colonies could possibly be constructed by robots remotely controlled from people on Earth, since the light-speed lag is very, very low).

[swampyankee]

I think there are three separate issues here:

1) When will interplanetary space travel get cheap enough to colonize Mars?

2) When will we get the technology to keep people alive on the Martian surface without frequent (say monthly) resupply missions?

3) Will enough people want to go to support a Martian colony?

For the first, I've previously found that first-class tickets, when allowing for inflation, had a cost that worked out to about $100/kg in current dollars.

For the second, we're definitely not there yet. In my opinion, it's extremely unlikely for this capability to be developed without a major government commitment to manned space exploration. While cheap lift to orbit may make space tourism possible, it will also make supporting local space tourism by shipments of consumables cheaper than development of a sufficiently closed system. I'm not sure what would define "sufficiently closed," but I think a fair threshold would be closed for water, maintenance of a breathable atmosphere, and minimal caloric requirements, so missing one or two food shipments won't cause starvation. I don't think the threshold could be high enough to require the inclusions of the abilities manufacture of spare parts, antibiotic production, or much beyond basic medical treatment.

Volunteers? Probably the easy part, although historically the "best and the brightest" were not in the early waves of colonization: they were doing quite well at home, thank you very much, unless there was a political or religious reason involved, as with the Pilgrims or the early Puritan settlers to British North America (Winthrop's fleet).

I've been avoiding a fourth question: Does it make sense?

Here, I think the answer is, broadly, "no." It makes more sense for space colonization to avoid the surfaces of planets and major moons. The technological challenges of colonizing Mars are largely coincident with those for colonizing space, with the addition of safely landing the colonists.

[mutleyeng]

I dont really see why people would be rushing to live in space stations.
The human factor would seem to me to require rock under foot and to make a new world in a very literal sense.
Im not sure if it will happen on Mars. I do see long term bases there at some time in the future, which may include non scientists making a living there...but probably more like oil rig workers than the pilgrims.
It depends how humans react to the martian gravity.

[Noclevername]

I dont really see why people would be rushing to live in space stations.
The human factor would seem to me to require rock under foot and to make a new world in a very literal sense.
Im not sure if it will happen on Mars. I do see long term bases there at some time in the future, which may include non scientists making a living there...but probably more like oil rig workers than the pilgrims.
It depends how humans react to the martian gravity.

Well, for one thing, properly designed longterm space habitats can be rotated to provide full Earth gravity or something close to it.

And the human factor to me is adaptability. We've learned to live nearly every place on Earth, despite vast discomforts in doing so. Our desire to explore and expand into new territory has not diminished just because our planet has run out of new territory.

[mutleyeng]

Well, for one thing, properly designed longterm space habitats can be rotated to provide full Earth gravity or something close to it.
.

Yes you could provide centrifugal gravity - but what would that be like to live in your whole life? I see it as a viable way of enabling longer distance travel, sure.
Every time you get up and walk around you have to do so in the right orientation to rotation(s)...hows that going to be, trying to live everyday lives in those conditions

[Noclevername]

Yes you could provide centrifugal gravity - but what would that be like to live in your whole life? I see it as a viable way of enabling longer distance travel, sure.
Every time you get up and walk around you have to do so in the right orientation to rotation(s)...hows that going to be, trying to live everyday lives in those conditions

If the station is big enough and spins slow enough (2RPM or less), you'd hardly notice. And given the size of a station you'd need to have a viable colony, that should be no problem. For people born on the colony, it'll just be normal.

[swampyankee]

Yes you could provide centrifugal gravity - but what would that be like to live in your whole life? I see it as a viable way of enabling longer distance travel, sure.
Every time you get up and walk around you have to do so in the right orientation to rotation(s)...hows that going to be, trying to live everyday lives in those conditions

Bluntly, I don't see that as a significant problem. People walk in difficult circumstances all the time: ice, loose rock, wet grass, etc (personally, I find marble floors and wet, leather soles a really bad combination).

As for living my whole life on a space station? I've heard many people who've moved to the US Southwest describing their days as "house => car => {work|mall} => car => house" and never doing anything outside. Don't see much difference between the two.

[R.A.F.]

Speaking of "predictions"....

If you had told me in 1972, that 40 years later we would not have returned to the Moon, well, you simply would not have been able to convince me...

In other words, I don't have a clue if we will colonize Mars, let alone when we might.

Now all this could change if we found life on Mars, then all "bets" would be off...

Given that, the 1st Man on Mars could come a lot sooner than we think.