Studies of contemporary technology futurists?

[publiusr]

As a general assessment, I would say they universally overstated what the "mechanical" advances would be, particularly with regard to rockets, space stations, lunar bases, etc., and how universally they underestimated the "electronic" advances, with regard to computers, communications, etc.

It seems a typical 1960s SF story involves a nuclear powered rocket making a routine trip to the Moon base, but having problems with changing out some blown vacuum tubes in the guidance system.

I think that is what led many of us on in what we thought the future would be. Rocky Jones Orbit Jet had metal wings that wouldn't melt--not tiles that had to be spackled. It was single stage to anywhere, and was flown like we would drive a car. The computer was huge of course--but I would rather live in that world than this one.

If anything--the shrinking of electronics hurt those space advocates who wanted larger systems.

I myself wish the microchip had been invented on a Moonbase--AFTER sufficient infrastructure and LV size was already a given.

Now electronics are a distraction more than an aide. In the recent Skeptical Inquirer, we learn how smart phones may have been a vector for the mass hysteria of the twitching students
http://www.centerforinquiry.net/news...mass_hysteria/

Thankfully, popular culture can promote science as well:
http://www.csicop.org/si/show/legend..._skeptic_epic/

Back on Topic. My prediction is that we are actually still in the 20th Century--and will be for some centuries to come. Horse drawn carts lasted for how many centuries? I think chemical rockets, standard looking airliners will be with us for quite some time. Yes the devices get smaller--but on the whole the stagnation will continue. This is your Consumer Appliance future.

ugh