Jobs in 200 years

[canopuss]

Within 200 years following are likely to happen

More robots to do the work.
More automation.
Matter replication etc.

http://www.futuretimeline.net/22ndcentury/2150-2199.htm

Is this means, in about 200 years time do most humans need a job to survive ? There won’t be much jobs left anyway as most of it will be done by robots, cyborgs etc.

[Jens]

As a famous German philosopher once said, we will "hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic."

[Maur]

As a famous German philosopher once said, we will "hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic."

So, you're postulating collapse of civilization and going back to hunting-gathering lifestyle with a bit of pastoralism?

[Ara Pacis]

So, you're postulating collapse of civilization and going back to hunting-gathering lifestyle with a bit of pastoralism?

Actually, I'm starting to think that's more likely. Instead of being getting smarter as a response to increasing complexity, they are getting more obstinate and ignorant. I don't think it's an issue of humans not being capable, but of certain elements of certain societies not being capable. in the past they have been dragged into the future kicking and screaming, but with resource depletion and global warming, the kicking and screaming will become more than figurative. On the plus side, there's a decent chance that the surviving humans may be more adaptable to the necessary changes.

[Noclevername]

Actually, I'm starting to think that's more likely. Instead of being getting smarter as a response to increasing complexity, they are getting more obstinate and ignorant. I don't think it's an issue of humans not being capable, but of certain elements of certain societies not being capable. in the past they have been dragged into the future kicking and screaming, but with resource depletion and global warming, the kicking and screaming will become more than figurative. On the plus side, there's a decent chance that the surviving humans may be more adaptable to the necessary changes.

I think those who are obstinate and ignorant are an ever-shrinking minority. They're just getting louder, because they see their narrow worldviews as under attack. There's just too many educated people in the world today for us to ever revert all the way to hunter-gatherers, barring a near-total population wipeout. There may be temporary setbacks, some of them quite devastating in terms of human suffering, but we've reached a point where we can repair the damage and continue to progress.

[Ara Pacis]

I think those who are obstinate and ignorant are an ever-shrinking minority. They're just getting louder, because they see their narrow worldviews as under attack. There's just too many educated people in the world today for us to ever revert all the way to hunter-gatherers, barring a near-total population wipeout. There may be temporary setbacks, some of them quite devastating in terms of human suffering, but we've reached a point where we can repair the damage and continue to progress.

If it were just sociological, I agree with you, but there are real physical hazards threatening our reality, which as a civilization is merely a veneer of politeness covering barbarism, and those threats may force us into untenable circumstances. Maybe I'll expand this into a separate thread.

[Swift]

Within 200 years following are likely to happen

Likely? I would not use the term "likely" with any such predictions.

If the human race lasts that long, and with a technological civilization (likely, IMO), then the use robots and automation seems likely. Matter replication, like on Star Trek? We don't even know if such physics is possible.

Predictions about what jobs are going to be around... pure speculation.

[mutleyeng]

nah,
the humans will be butlers and maids for the robots...there be plenty of work, dont worry

[ravens_cry]

If current trends say anything, we'll become even more specialized in the sciences.
After all, a human can become an in-depth expert on so much.

[Cookie]

Well, we might not need a job to survive, someday.

However, we'll still need, or desire, for humans to actively participate in:
Entertainment (Acting, Singing, Dancing, Writing, Directing, and so on),
Design (Clothing, Accessories, Shoes, Hats, Architecture, Art),
Management (Don't want the robots managing themselves, do ya?), O_o
Exploration (Because, you know, it's THERE), XD
Cooking (as a Novelty, or because it Tastes Better, they'll swear).

There's probably other things too, but that's all I can come up with at this late hour.

[Ivan Viehoff]

Just the same thing used to be said 40 years ago. And despite considerably increased automation of manufacturing since that time, just as preducted, and a much lower proportion of human labour being devoted thereto, there still seems to be lots of work to be done and people in high income countries don't seem to be working any less.

[noncryptic]

There would still be jobs doing creation and maintenance of the automated systems.

In essence it's no different than what went before: technological advances allow for increased efficiency in production (in terms of man-hours); more wealth/comfort/luxury for less time spent laboring.
How that affects peoples lives depends on how the benefit is distributed. If history is an indication then it will benefit a small number of individuals greatly while many others receive little or no benefit.

[Ivan Viehoff]

There would still be jobs doing creation and maintenance of the automated systems.

And cutting people's hair, and selling stuff, and transporting materials, and running care homes, and creating soft content for electronic devices, and mending the road, and....

[antoniseb]

I think about the future a lot, including ideas about what resources individuals will have, and how they will get distributed... but I also think that (as others above have noted) that being able to see the end of the need for jobs we do now does not mean there will be an end of jobs. Our lack of imagination or foresight doesn't mean we won't have our culture evolve toward other uses of human motivation. ... I think a lot of us will be involved in research and other creative efforts.

[Swift]

I think about the future a lot, including ideas about what resources individuals will have, and how they will get distributed... but I also think that (as others above have noted) that being able to see the end of the need for jobs we do now does not mean there will be an end of jobs. Our lack of imagination or foresight doesn't mean we won't have our culture evolve toward other uses of human motivation. ... I think a lot of us will be involved in research and other creative efforts.

Who, 30 or 50 years ago, would have thought that there would be people with such jobs as App Developer, Blogger, or Nanomaterial Researcher.

[antoniseb]

Who, 30 or 50 years ago, would have thought that there would be people with such jobs as App Developer, Blogger, or Nanomaterial Researcher.

Right, even if you did somehow foresee the end of telephone switchboard operators, mail sorters, and elevator men...

[JCoyote]

I am seeing a slight issue here... in fact I do think some of our recent economic issues stem from some of this already.

As costs of manufacturing efficiently come down and automation of both manufacturing and testing of production loses all human interaction beyond a managerial/liability requirement... look guys, for-profit companies will always try to trim to the least possible number of workers. And what ones they do need? They will attempt to minimize usage of them. Bare minimum. It costs less.

All this activity has been going toward, on a major level, enriching a very small portion of the population. The drive toward minimal compensation of the work force also helps insure this; investment capital without leverage is a luxury the underpaid workers can't afford.

With the automation of all non-artisan manufacturing and farming, and with automation crawling up the ranks to everything below middle management... a very minimal number...

Here you are... a middle class or lower individual. You need food. No one is hiring. Make up a business to sell to your friends? They have no fundamental income either. All of that is automated and streaming funds into only one direction, upward. Yea sure the automation has brought down product costs... but cheap is NOT free and they won't give it away. But neither you nor anyone you know has fundamental income generation anymore. The companies are not producing this stuff as charity. See the problem here? Grow your own food you say? Do you own any land? No? The people who run production control it all? Obviously they aren't going to let you use their land to grow food in competition with them.

The idea that somehow jobs would appear out of thin air for this issue sounds very suspiciously like a religious faith. There is no real basis for it. Large numbers of people can be out of work, large numbers of people can starve and have malnutrition just because there is no way for them to make a living.

This all stems from competition for fundamentals... all the rest is merely service industry and floats based on demand and money originating out of those fundamentals: food production, energy production, water, and the manufactured items needed to acquire and utilize those things. A level of common property has traditionally existed with most of this activity because human workers were needed for all of it. Automation allows for breaking this tradition and allows all fundamental production to be sequestered under the control of fewer and fewer people. All this nice concept about service industry and all that? It all floats on top of peripheral demand AFTER fundamental production. If those handful of people who control automated production of all fundamentals don't feel there is anything you can offer they should pay you for, they won't.

6 billion people can't survive off whatever peripheral "service" demands there are from a hundred million or so people who control industry top to bottom and have automated everything to self sustain that... which they own... have DRM over... and can even remotely shutdown if non-owners attempt to use them. Owners who will leading up to this have no issue with flat out buying political power. People in large numbers can ultimately be... unneeded in a system that evolves. It's a scary thought.

[Ara Pacis]

I think about the future a lot, including ideas about what resources individuals will have, and how they will get distributed... but I also think that (as others above have noted) that being able to see the end of the need for jobs we do now does not mean there will be an end of jobs. Our lack of imagination or foresight doesn't mean we won't have our culture evolve toward other uses of human motivation. ... I think a lot of us will be involved in research and other creative efforts.

That may depend on if we develop AI which can do some of the creative work for us. Sure, maybe someone wants to make a movie and wants us to give him money to watch it, but if we have an AI in our pocket, it could make a movie for us that might be as entertaining. But I agree, there will be some jobs because some people will be bored, some people will think they can do better than AI, robots, or automation, and some people will want to find a way to lord it over others because lording it over robots just won't be entertaining enough.

quote=Swift]Who, 30 or 50 years ago, would have thought that there would be people with such jobs as App Developer, Blogger, or Nanomaterial Researcher. [/quote]That's just new terms for old jobs: writer, journalist, chemist.

I think JCoyote mirrors my sentiments, as mentioned in other threads. We'll need a new labor valuation paradigm. Perhaps it will include 3 day weekends, more vacation, etc. And new rules on intellectual property, because when a company can buy up a patent or company with a new idea and just sit on it to squelch competition, it hurts us all.

[profloater]

200 years is a long time, time enough for more than one reversal of fortune. Very few trends last that long. It is the reversals that mark out history rather than the trends. In 200 years how many epidemics? How many wars? How many lost technologies? If there is a trend toward the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, how long can that remain stable? Maybe the Matrix IS the answer.!

[Xelebes]

I cannot wait until the day we have robots who own for us.

[danscope]

I'm surprised that no one mentions Agriculture much . Surely we will dedicate much in labor and in treasure to win more and better fruits from our fields and garden. But...... a solar powered robot that weeds and stimulates plants, nutures the soil and is built low to the ground, slow and practical? Now, I wonder.Who will build it? Sony, Hitachi, HP, Xerox? A smart robot knows what plant it is looking at, works in the rain. Imagine a bot picking blueberries?
It comes down to jobs for people,.... or jobs for machines.

[publiusr]

I just see the desperation economy getting worse. Prices go up, wages stagnate. Public sector jobs are reduced to min wage, then that takes a hit:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1263031.html
http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-to...g-jobs-ov.html

Repo man tows the pawn stars car, so Repo man can pay off his debt to the payday loan shark, who can't afford his monthly payment to the rental storage unit which gets auctioned off to the pawn star.

Repeat.

Then all get photo-ticketed at faster cycling red-light camera traps, the banks force everybody into the streets, and we all wind up in debtor's prisons which are making a comeback:
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/201...lls/?mobile=nc

Just look at the sprawl we call our neighborhoods. No factories, just firms that folks use to prey one upon the other. Pawn shops, liquor stores, payday loans, repo lots--that's our future.

[Noclevername]

Just look at the sprawl we call our neighborhoods. No factories, just firms that folks use to prey one upon the other. Pawn shops, liquor stores, payday loans, repo lots--that's our future.

That desperation economy won't last 200 years, though; within that time either we'll come up with a better system, or the current economic civilization will collapse and reboot.

[noncryptic]

That desperation economy won't last 200 years

I'm not so sure. The situation seems to be worsening, not improving.
Isn't any economy/society that's substantially relying on slavery, serfdom and debt bondage, a desperation economy? Was that not the situation during the Middle Ages? It lasted more than 200 years.

or the current economic civilization will collapse and reboot.

Which would cause quite a bit of desperation for many people, for who knows how long a stretch of time.

[Noclevername]

I'm not so sure. The situation seems to be worsening, not improving.
Isn't any economy/society that's substantially relying on slavery, serfdom and debt bondage, a desperation economy? Was that not the situation during the Middle Ages? It lasted more than 200 years.

The current situation in Western nations is very different from Middle Ages Europe. There are a lot more educated people and a lot more workforce, period. Not to mention communcations that allow large groups to organize and exchange information far more quickly than medieval times could provide.

Which would cause quite a bit of desperation for many people, for who knows how long a stretch of time.

But it would be a very different sort of deperation than the one you were describing in your above post, and would make people in general even more motivated to create an alternative and more pragmatic system. We would no longer have "first world problems" to deal with.

[Ara Pacis]

The current situation in Western nations is very different from Middle Ages Europe. There are a lot more educated people and a lot more workforce, period. Not to mention communcations that allow large groups to organize and exchange information far more quickly than medieval times could provide.

But it would be a very different sort of deperation than the one you were describing in your above post, and would make people in general even more motivated to create an alternative and more pragmatic system. We would no longer have "first world problems" to deal with.

Ah, but the means to enforce the system are more capable too. It's easy to "create an alternative and more pragmatic system" when everyone has muskets, but it's harder when one side has Apache attack helicopters.

Desperation is a state of mind, but that's based on what a mind expects. Peonage and Patronage, Fuedalism and Fealty etc could work even in modern America, for better or worse.

[publiusr]

I'm not so sure. The situation seems to be worsening, not improving.
Isn't any economy/society that's substantially relying on slavery, serfdom and debt bondage, a desperation economy? Was that not the situation during the Middle Ages? It lasted more than 200 years. Which would cause quite a bit of desperation for many people, for who knows how long a stretch of time.

That was my point. If anything, it was only in the mid 1900s that workers had any rights at all--and those are under assault.

Serfdom and slavery lasted longer than 200 years. It was the 1930-1970s that the working poor had any voice. That is vanishing. Take a lot of places where appointed city managers have reduced publicly elected officials into puppets with no say. Look for more of this before things get better. Take the lifeguard fired for saving someones life. As people want taxes lowered, infrastructure still needs be had--and the privatizers if anything make things worse. I gave an example of this in another thread here on the VLJ debacle and how the attempt to break up large institutions failed from withing due to stingy behavior and the desire to have profits without products to reduce overhead.

Combine lack of democratic power with 'profits without products' and you will always have a desperation economy. In Alabama, we sell out workers so Airbus came here. But I'd rather have all our old textile and steel mills back and tell Airbus to take a hike. I'd rather fly on a Boeing jet where the pilots are not trained to 'not use the rudder.'

http://www.flightsim.com/vbfs/archiv.../t-182826.html

"If I remember correctly, it concerned an Airbus which lost most of its vertical surfaces when the pilot used the rudder as he had been used to doing in Boeing products."

There are costs to this globalization: http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/genera...=9780195116519
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.152...21100907333861

Take the sex slavery markets where a nations youth are being used up by tourists. And people wonder where resentment comes from.

[SkepticJ]

That desperation economy won't last 200 years, though; within that time either we'll come up with a better system, or the current economic civilization will collapse and reboot.

It's exceedingly unlikely that the whole world would follow this path, and technology, knowledge and memes have moved on since the fall of the ancient empires.

If Europe and the United States go under, I'm sure Japan, China, Brazil, Canada, and other nations that have their crap together will be more than happy to expand their borders into the collapsed territories.

[Ara Pacis]

It's exceedingly unlikely that the whole world would follow this path, and technology, knowledge and memes have moved on since the fall of the ancient empires.

If Europe and the United States go under, I'm sure Japan, China, Brazil, Canada, and other nations that have their crap together will be more than happy to expand their borders into the collapsed territories.

No one's expanded into Somalia or Afghanistan, punitive or charitable expeditions being different from actual conquest and annexation. To take over a collapsed America would probably cost more than its worth, which may be different from annexing uncollapsed portions of the country.

[Solfe]

Tech support will likely be around... although I am sure the term "Blue Screen of Death" will mean something completely different if robots become self aware.