This rocket won't die...

[publiusr]

Now the numbers are Delta: 3%, Falcon 0.004%.

It's a comparison that doesn't even sound worth mentioning.

Assuming that Musk can deliver OVER TIME. There was a recent documentary on the electric car (REVENGE OF THE ELECTRIC CAR) where Musk seemed to have...rather much on his plate. I loved how Bob Lutz took the current rich kids to task for thinking that Moore's law applied to everything.

The problem with these type one one-man shows is that you open yourself up to a powerful entrepreneurs personal problems. Musk's divorce could easily have resulted in a similar situation to the Dodgers debacle I mentioned elsewhere.
Safran is an outfit of men, not personalities.

Suppose Musk undercuts everyone, runs off the competition, then folds. Can you imagine the time it would take to rebuild the infrastructure, the workforce? Same with folks who want to end the post office. Once you do that--THAT'S IT.

This is why I always prefered Arsenal approach as was done with ABMA--you take the personalities out of it as much as you can. Institutions not individuals. People have this idea that NASA should buy rides and not be in the rocket making business. I have never bought that line. There was an article in AV WEEK (page 17 Of the January 16, 2012) showing a disgruntled Army man sick of contractors telling him what he needed for a helicopter project. Like Griffin, he was of the old school of keeping contactors on a short leash (a choke chain at that). But that's politics...

Do you have any modern examples of LEGO rocketry besides Liberty itself? Preferably with a little more successful history.

I mentioned Centaur. Now to respond to this:

You really think think Centaur is a reasonable comparison to the monstrosity that is Liberty?

Yes I do. Because both Centaur (which is balloon tank) and the Ariane 5 core (which isn't, BTW) are both known quantities. If anything, I would think an Ariane 5 core would be more robust and less sensitive. Centaurs are a pretty sizable piece of kit as it stands.

, they might as well just restart the Ares-1.

I'd rather have that myself, as the J-2 would be common to both it and SLS upper stages, and was always an upper stage engine. If you want to make an arguement against Liberty--the best tactic is to remind folks that Ariane 5's engine was never meant to be fired at altitude. That can be overcome--but if you want to bash something, don't focus on the the Lego approach--focus on the not-made-here arguements behind Ares-I and how it was argued to be an indigenous, all American rocket, so why should we use tax dollars to prop up the Arianespace cadre? That's the arguement you should be making.

Dynetics is to have F-1 powered strap-ons--which is what I would prefer--and we have plenty of medium lift rockets in the stable now. Liberty might usurp SLS funding too. Remember folks once said that Ares I would distract from HLV support--so we needed to cancel Ares I and focus on HLV, and how Musk should compete against ULA for more modest sized LEO-only LVs.

Suits me. Let him and ULA fight it out. If Safran can do Liberty on their own dime and make it work--that's fine too.