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Thread: Prediction results

  1. #61
    Join Date
    Aug 2002

    and again we get unsubstantiated claims and mumbo jumbo with not a shred of evidence.
    this was your last chance of hoping to discuss your "predictions."
    thread closed, please report this post if you should think that this should stay open
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  2. #62
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Quote Originally Posted by stutefish View Post
    Jerry, can you provide a link to your original predictions?

    ETA: Also--and perhaps more importantly--can you provide links to support your claims regarding what is observed, and what was expected?

    Here is a link to the original post, as near as I can tell, from Feb 2010:

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
    The new board rules make it hard to make predictions: Dragging out old ideas and rehashing them, as we are here, is generally frowned upon. Also, if one makes a yearly prediction on an ATM thread, that thread will be closed a year later. I could argue with moderators about whether or not the prediction was significant or proved to be correct; but I haven't.

    There are a few interesting things coming down in the next 18 months or so: Direct observations by NEAR in the asteroid belt; Stardust pays a visit to the Deep Impact target, Tempel 2. Messenger goes into orbit about Mercury and Hayabusa returns. Lots of excitement.

    Tempel II: Mission scientists expect to see a gaping hole carved by the Deep Impact probe. I expect an unobservable-to-barely observable surface-wound feature. The difference depends upon whether Tempel II is a dense object, or an object with a density of less than 0.2g/cc, as Deep Impact scientists calculated. I think that is absurd.

    Messenger: With a successful orbit, Messenger will be able to measure the gravity fields of Mercury. We won't know right away, but over time, a painful discrepancy will emerge: the high regions will map out as being unphysically underdense, while the low regions will map extremely over-dense. Expect a delay of at least six years in the release of the data: It is hard to release data that is not understood. (The oddball changing color of Pluto was first observed eight years before this was published.)

    Near: Just as engineers had a devil of a time figuring out how near Hayabusa was to Itokawa; Near is going to find navigation very close to asteroids highly problematic. Expect results as terse as the first atmospheric braking exercises in the Martian orbiters - a lot of trial-and-error.

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