Popocatepetl Activity Alert

[Romanus]

Excerpt from short article:

This change in activity in the 5,450 meter (17,900 foot) volcano could provoke big explosions capable of sending incandescent fragments out over considerable distances, as well as ash showers, the center said in a statement.

The center raised the alert level to yellow phase three from yellow phase two, indicating possible magma expulsion and explosions of increasing intensity. It is the third-highest warning on the center's seven-step scale.

Emergency services should ready evacuation teams and shelters, limit access to the area around the volcano and alert air-traffic control systems, the center said in its statement.

Experts have noted increased activity in Popocateptl in 2012. It has spewed smoke and ash sporadically over the last few years and a major eruption in 2000 forced the evacuation of nearly 50,000 residents in three states surrounding the peak.

link:
http://news.yahoo.com/mexico-raises-...091647845.html

[dgavin]

Sounds like the equivlent of a condition Orange, maybe even Red of our VONA notices.

As to In the spirit of Dgavin. I'm flatered! But I'm no trained expert. Hard to believe this all started 12 years ago on BAUT with just posting updates on Mt. St. Helens here at BAUT.

[Romanus]

Nonetheless, they are appreciated.

[Ara Pacis]

"In the spirit"? I don't think he's passed away yet.

[BigDon]

Nonetheless, they are appreciated.

^What he said.

Hey is this that famous Mexican cornfield volcano or did that one peter out and die?

As a side note...

I was watching old monster movies the other day on On-demand TV and I realized that Dgavin, Redshift, Geonuc and the two Australian rock docs might be interested in knowing that several minutes of stock footage of the aforementioned cornfield volcano are used in the opening of the black and white classic, The Black Scorpion I saw it when I was twelve and it's been a favorite ever since. After I noticed which volcano it was, I watched the rest of the movie for interesting geology and they filmed on location in a rather impressive Mexican volcano field.

[Romanus]

The "cornfield volcano" is Parícutin, which is probably extinct; cinder cones tend to grow fast and die young.

[Trebuchet]

The "cornfield volcano" is Parícutin, which is probably extinct; cinder cones tend to grow fast and die young.

Thanks for that; I've mixed them up in the past (hey, they both start with "P") and although I knew better this time around it got me thinking of Paricutin and I couldn't remember the name!

[BigDon]

The "cornfield volcano" is Parícutin, which is probably extinct; cinder cones tend to grow fast and die young.

Thank you, a quick wiki on the name says yes it is extinct.

[dgavin]

Reports coming in from various news sources that about 3 hours ago, Popocatepetl experinced a VEI 3 to 4 level eruption with a 17km high ash cloud, and lava bomb ejecta.

Unable to confirm this with any VONA alerts or mexico's equivlents.

[BigDon]

How close to Mexico city is this!?!

I have friends there!

[BigDon]

43 miles to the north east.

[dgavin]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Popoca...C3%A9petl&z=10

I have found more news blurbs on it erupting (Looking like a weak VEI 3), but unable to even connect to Mexico Gov's web site for alerts. Have to assume because of web activity. Web Cam and other photo places show a minor ash cloud now. Safe to assume it has indeed had a minor eruption.

[Swift]

BBC.co from about 1 hour ago

The Popocatepetl volcano outside of Mexico City has been spewing glowing rock fragments as far as 1km (0.6 miles) down its slopes.

Columns of ash have been shooting from more than 60 openings in the crust of the 5,450m (17,900-foot) volcano.

Residents of surrounding villages said they were awoken by a low-pitched roar coming from the mountain.

[Swift]

I also found this Mexican Civil Defense website on the volcano

They have a status page in English

Abr 20 13:00 (18:00 Abr 20 GMT)

Since the last report 5 hours ago, the monitoring system registered several segments of spasmodic tremor and exhalation sequences. During the firts of this segments, between 07:10 to 09:12 h., 40 medium intensity exhalations were recorded. This exhalations were accompanied by a steam, gas and ash plume and by incandescent fragments that roll down the outer slopes of the volcano for up to 1 km (see image 1) (see image 2) . Later, since 10:24 h. to 11:52 h., the monitoring system recorded spasmodic tremor of high magnitude. During the last hour and until the moment of this report another spasmodic tremor is recorded, including exhalation signals within it, also accompanied by a steam, gas and ash plume (ver imagen 3) .

At the moment, there is only partial visibility to the volcano. During early morning, the steam, gas an ash plume towards the east, reaching 2 km high.

Summary of the last 24 h.: the seismic activity at Popocatépetl volcano remain high. The monitoring sytem recorded 10 h. 30 min of segments of spasmodic tremor and exhalation sequences. Aditionally a volcanotectonic event was registered yesterday at 18:50 h. (local time). Most of the exhalations were accompanied by the emission of incandescent fragments over the flanks of the volcano. The gas and ash plume was continuous, reaching between 1 an 2 km, and travelling mainly to the east. Likeky, small amounts of ash were deposited in San Nicolás de los Ranchos, Santiago Xalizintla, Tianguismanalco, Atlixco, Cholula y Puebla.

The traffic light alert signal remains in Yellow Phase 3. This level implies:

1. Announcing the situation and measures taken to the public and the media.2. Prepare personnel, equipment and evacuation shelters. 3. Implement specific measures in the most vulnerable.4. Implement preventive measures against ash fall, lahars and against fragments in vulnerable regions.5. Alert air navigation systems.6. Limit access to the volcano over a larger area.

Popocatepetl Volcano is monitored continuously. The next report will be edited today at 20:00 h (local time).

One of the three webcams from the parent page

[dgavin]

Still erupting.

Small irredecent glowing ash clouds seen at night coming out of crater. Appearently it's still making the roaring noises heard as far way as mexico city at times. Overall it's not been a very powerful eruption, just a very noisy one.

[BigDon]

So not a full plinian, raise the roof on the sucka?

[Romanus]

^
Doesn't look like it. As a general rule, frequently active stratovolcanos (I'd call even a few minor eruptions a decade "frequently active") don't go ka-boom; it's the stratovolcanos that stay quiet for decades or centuries (like Pinatubo or Mt. St. Helens) that are the real explosive threats. For instance, one reason volcanologists are so troubled by Mount Vesuvius is that its record shows a clear correlation between dormancy length and eruptive violence when it reawakens; the mountain's current dormant stretch is the longest in over 300 years.

[dgavin]

Updates: Barring misstranslations, it appears there was aleast two villages were partially evacuated last week, due to the naxious gasses more so then any ash fall or eruption. While the people have returned, there are a number of villages and cities now sitting at a 'Be Ready' to evacuate stage. Schools in one of the villages had to disallow outdoor activites because of the ash fall and gasses in that location.

While there hasn't been much news otherwise, and with the CENAPRED web site blocked from work for some reason, I can't reall give an opinion on this volcano, other then I suspect any full eruption will likely be weak.

[Swift]

They have a status page in English

The latest from this status page

May 3 11:00 (16:00 GMT)

In the last 24 hours the activity of the Popocatépetl volcano increases significantly. The monitoring system registered yesterday, between 10:30 h and 16:50 h (local time), an spasmodic tremor, including signals of exhalations of large amplitude. This tremor was accompanied by a dense and continuous plume of gas and ash. The plume adressed to the west- northwest. Some reports of ashfall were received from Amecameca, Atlautla, Ozumba, Ecatzingo y Chalco en el Estado de México.

Later, other segments of spasmodic tremor of lesser amplitude were recorded. The firts has a duration of three hours, since 18:32 h (local time). The plume of gas and ash change towards north-norteast during the evening and night and some reports of ashfall were received from some parts of southeast of México City.

During the early morning, another spasmodic tremor began at 01:56 h (local time) until the moment of this report. It was accompanied by a continuous emission of gas, ash and incandescent fragments over the flanks of the volcano, reaching a maximul distance of 800 m. The most important event of this type occurred at 05:24 h(local time)(see image 1) (see image 2).

Aditionally, 16 exhalations of large magnitude were registered.

At the moment of this report the volcano presents a continous and dense plume of steam,gas and small amounts of ash, that reach 1.5 km high. From this altitude the plume diperses from west to northeast (see image 3).

The traffic light alert signal remains in Yellow Phase 3. This level implies:

Sounds like there is still concern

[dgavin]

Popecatepetl has reached USGS/KVERT (USA/Russia) equivlent of Condition Orange

Mexico International Airport was closed down for an hour last night due to ash fall from Popecatepetl. On Tuesday, the Peubla Airport was closed for several hours also due to ash fall.

Satellite images today still showing an ash cloud extending from Popecatepetl to the East/Northeast

[Romanus]

Some of the live video from the region has been spectacular; on one nighttime stream you could hear the distant roaring, see glowing bombs fragmenting on the slopes. It was something else.

By the by, the way I've been hearing its name pronounced on Mexican news channels, the pronunciation is roughly "poh-poh-ka-tep"; the tl is not pronounced. That said, Nahuatl pronunciation guides insist that the tl sounds like simply a final, softened t.

[dgavin]

Popocatepetl updates: Condition Orange

Popocatepetl had a moderate ash/lava bomb eruption on Saturday, the ash cloud reaching 4km height and inundating some nearby villages with ash-fall. Lava bombs were ejected up to half a kilometer out from summit.

[dgavin]

Mt. Fuego in Guatamala erupted over the weekend, rather spectacularly, and sitting at Condition Orange. Ash cloud reaching 10km heights, pyroclastic flows, and lava flows.

Nothing much changed with Popocatepetl in the last week, it's still putting out ash, and being a very noisy noisy neighbor for those living close by.

[dgavin]

Updates:

Cenapred report that Popocatepetl is exhibit sign of increased activity over what it's been showing so far. Including Termor activity directly related to pulse like increases in the ash/steam/gas emissions.

At the bottom of todays report Ceapred seems to have posted a to do list. Over all it looks like there is an expectation of larger forms of activity at Popocatepetl.

1. Announcing the situation and measures taken to the public and the media.
2. Prepare personnel, equipment and evacuation shelters.
3. Implement specific measures in the most vulnerable.
4. Implement preventive measures against ash fall, lahars and against fragments in vulnerable regions.
5. Alert air navigation systems.
6. Limit access to the volcano over a larger area.

[dgavin]

Updates:

From Earthweek, got specifics of Mt. Feugo's eruption.

Authorities quickly diverted aircraft and closed sections of highway as black ash from Fuego volcano reached up to 16,400 feet above the crater.

Fountains of lava were seen gushing nearly 1,300 feet high, threatening to flow down on stretches of roadway below.

All i have to say about that size of a Lava Fountain, is WOW!

[dgavin]

Updates:

Cenapred reports that Popocatepetl is exhibiting sporatic 'medium' sized ash/steam eruptions. 6 yesterday alone, along with a 16 minute long harmoic tremor. They are asking people to pay close attention to thier information office incase of sudden alerts.

This is about as close you can get to saying a strong eruption is possible, without saying it outright.

Based on the volcanoe's history, a strong eruption would likely be VEI 3 or 4 levels, possibly sprinkle Mexico City with some minor ash fall, more of an annoyance type of event. Might involve some lava fountaining, and minor pyroclastic flows.

[dgavin]

Over this last weekend there were 91 explosions heard from Mt Popocatepetl, so now it is roaring and booming. I'm glad I don't live within earshot of the mountain! However other then the booming, no significant changes in ash out or strength of the ash eruptions.

Additionally there are indications finally coming out on geology sites, that it may be following an historic normal for a /not/ very strong eruption. Something in the order of a VEI 2 eruption is eventually excepted.

[Ara Pacis]

I'm surprised the filters let that typo through.

[dgavin]

Yeah, Spell checkers let it through also lol

[dgavin]

After the lively weeks of roaring and then booming, Popopcatepetl may finally be starting to show some signs of a slow down on it's activity. It's too soon to tell if this is a trend of activity subsidence or not though.