What will happen when Oil starts to run out ?

[kevin1981]

I was just wondering what people think will happen when Oil supplies start to dry up, regarding, Oil rich Countries ?

Say for example, Oil supplies start to decline, so the Oil rich Countries keep it for themselves.

Is this a likely scenario ? If so, could it bring about war ?

[Romanus]

I don't think oil will run out; new reserves will be found, and old ones will become more cost effective to exploit as the price increases. I do, however, think that as the price steadily rises the demand for alternatives--either more fuel-efficient ones or ones independent of oil altogether--will increase as well, resulting in a steady shift in usage.

[kevin1981]

I don't think oil will run out

Thanks for the reply. We only have a finite amount, so, at some point we will run out. I read somewhere, if we keep consuming
at the current rate, it wont be very long until we hit "peak Oil", maybe 20 years or so.

[swampyankee]

My belief? Markets are reactive, not predictive, and the costs will rise much more quickly than alternatives can be brought on line. The next result will be very that there will be a significant -- probably at least a decade -- long period of very serious economic disruption, and associated violence.

[HenrikOlsen]

Thanks for the reply. We only have a finite amount, so, at some point we will run out. I read somewhere, if we keep consuming
at the current rate, it wont be very long until we hit "peak Oil", maybe 20 years or so.

Several have argued that peak oil has been hit already.

[Noclevername]

Say for example, Oil supplies start to decline, so the Oil rich Countries keep it for themselves.

Many oil-rich countries are former poor nations that made their fortunes on the oil economy and have become dependent on it (with a few exceptions). I doubt keeping it would benefit them much. They need trade to keep supplied with goods.

[Robert Tulip]

Several have argued that peak oil has been hit already.

Timing of peak oil (Wikipedia)

In Feb 2010 the US Joint Forces Command issued the Joint Operating Environment 2010[114] warning US military commands "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."
"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."

The military warning of timing issue is graphically noted in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2010.[115] The IEA graph notes that depleting conventional oil will be replaced by "fields yet to be found" and "fields yet to be developed."
M. King Hubbert initially predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue."[116] However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars,[117] the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating,[118] and other factors), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s. Thus oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected. This underscores the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily available, such as new reserve growth data.[119] Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred, that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it will occur.
According to Matthew Simmons, former Chairman of Simmons & Company International and author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, "...peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late."[120]

[Ivan Viehoff]

As the supply of oil falls, the price will go up, encouraging the production of energy and chemical feedstocks from other sources. Once oil becomes so expensive that those alternative energy/chemical sources are clearly cheaper than it for most ordinary usages, we will probably only mine it for those special chemical properties that are expensive to substitute from other sources. In fact it is a bit more complicated than that, because there are some oil producers who can still produce lots of oil at much less than the price it is sold at, so the price of that will tend to be fixed by the price of substitutes. How such nations choose to use that profit opportunity will depend upon things that are beyond the scope of this forum to discuss.

When we talk about alternatives, well in the shortest run there is gas, though many people consider gas a sufficiently close substitute for oil that they really mean oil-and-gas when they say oil. After all, many vehicles can run on LPG without much conversion, other than the annoyance of a larger fuel tank. And gas is often considered a superior chemical feedstock to oil (natural gas was once described as "too noble to burn" for this reason). Then after that there is coal, which the South Africans did a lot of work on liquifying to a usuable liquid fuel when they were subject to sanctions. And apparently they still do so, and make a profit out of it, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sasol. There is still a lot of coal around, hence the ability of the Chinese and Indians so to expand their coal-burning capacity of late.

And after that we get into rather more expensive non-fossil energy sources, whose main trouble is that they tend to require a lot of land, and thus risk pushing up the price of food.

[Argos]

Don´t hold your breath waiting for the demise of the oil civilization.

[lomiller1]

It’s unlikely that oil will ever come close to running out, there is 4X as much oil in tar sands deposits as has been used in the last 100 years. What will happen is that oil will at some point become more expensive than alternatives, at which point it’s use will decline to very low levels.

Before that happens, rising production costs will slow down new supplies coming online, so production will stay about where it is now for several decades in an “undulating plateau”, a pattern we appear to have been in since as early as 2006.

[swampyankee]

What my major worry about the future is would be that some of the major importer nations would react violently. I'm going to avoid my political high-horse here (I'd rather not get infracted), but resort to violence or threats of violence seems to be the first resort of some elements of the US polity.

[JustAFriend]

We only have a finite amount, so, at some point we will run out. I read somewhere, if we keep consuming
at the current rate, it wont be very long until we hit "peak Oil", maybe 20 years or so.

Although you are forgetting that we can synthesize hydrocarbon compounds fairly easily.
Yes, they'll be more expensive than what we have now, but they'll work.

And we are already bio-engineering algae and bacteria to poop an endless supply.

(and as for "Peak Oil"- in the 1970s when I was in college they were claiming we only had a 15-20year supply...)

[Ara Pacis]

I was just wondering what people think will happen when Oil supplies start to dry up, regarding, Oil rich Countries ?

Say for example, Oil supplies start to decline, so the Oil rich Countries keep it for themselves.

Is this a likely scenario ? If so, could it bring about war ?

Look around, you're living it. Yes, American is an "Oil rich" country that is keeping it for themselves, hence the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. I suppose technically, we do sell Petroleum on the global market, but I suspect it all stays here since we're a net importer.

[Ivan Viehoff]

Although you are forgetting that we can synthesize hydrocarbon compounds fairly easily.
Yes, they'll be more expensive than what we have now, but they'll work. And we are already bio-engineering algae and bacteria to poop an endless supply.

Synthesis of hydrocarbons (assumed not to be from a fossil fuel source) requires a large energy input, even if it is only the sunshine to grow the plants, which begs the question of where that energy comes from and how it is collected. If the hydrocarbon is to be used for burning, then it may be better to apply the alternative energy input more directly, or via an alternative storage technology, than using hydrocarbon to store it. If the energy to supply the synthesis comes from unstored solar input, then it typically needs a lot of land, not to mention the cost of covering all that land with energy collection infrastructure. And don't forget that many energy collection techniques require a copious local water supply, even if it is only cooling water for a turbine, so the number of technologies that are suitable for large scale application in the desert, thus avoiding competition with agricultural land, is small.

[HenrikOlsen]

Basically, the only case where it makes sense to synthesize hydrocarbons is when they're needed as raw material for chemical processes. Otherwise it would make more sense to use the energy directly.

[kzb]

My guess is that we'll simply go back to coal. In fact this is already happening, because energy-intensive industrial production has been transferred from pollution-sensitive western nations to emerging nations, where wealth production takes precedence. These nations have increased production largely through burning coal, not oil.

[transreality]

According to BP, Peak Oil production has been passed:

Oil production by region

[Delvo]

Basically, the only case where it makes sense to synthesize hydrocarbons is when they're needed as raw material for chemical processes.

What chemical processes? Production of plastics?

Otherwise it would make more sense to use the energy directly.

As long as either you're not moving or you've invented a better method of portable energy storage. Oil-based fluids make the best "batteries" that are available so far.

[Cobra1597]

What chemical processes? Production of plastics?

Wouldn't shock me if petroleum is either used as a feed stock or petroleum based products (organic solvents, for example) are used along the way for the synthesis of a number of pharmaceutical products.

[Van Rijn]

According to BP, Peak Oil production has been passed:

Oil production by region

Do they make that claim somewhere and have some detailed discussion about it? The link points to a graph that shows a fairly steep production decline in three regions, and not much change or slight increases in other regions, and all this happening when there was a significant dip in demand due to recession. I would suspect the production drop had more to do with the drop in demand, especially since it was in more than one region.

One interesting point is that they say the U.S. had an *increase* of 460,000b/d, the largest increase in the world, and the strongest growth of U.S. production since 1970. That's going to be interesting: Increased U.S. production could help a lot with balance of trade, which would be a great help to the economy.

[Van Rijn]

As long as either you're not moving or you've invented a better method of portable energy storage. Oil-based fluids make the best "batteries" that are available so far.

Especially for air travel. There are a few experimental battery planes, but they're slow, special purpose things. For anything like conventional jets you would need hydrocarbon or hydrogen fuel, and hydrogen is very bulky.

[Ivan Viehoff]

Oil-based fluids make the best "batteries" that are available so far.

By "battery", I presume you mean converting a non-portable power source to a portable power source by storing the energy in some form. Oil-based fluids are only best in the sense of being most energy dense, they are not best in terms of economics for most applications. Bio-diesel is the main example of a "battery" that stores its energy in the form of an oil. I think that it is only for air transportation that the very high energy density of oils so far seems to be required. For other less mass-critical forms of mobile application, there seem to be other kinds of "battery" that are adequate. For example, for road vehicles, ethanol from sugar cane (but not maize) seems to have better economics than bio-diesel. I don't people that are studying hydrogen, fuel cells, etc, are wasting their time relative to people who are studying synthesis of oil, although I will be delighted if a practical and economic method of "growing" oil via algae, for example, is devised.

[Copernicus]

When one asks the question, what will happen when oil runs out, enormous assumptions are made. There could be a few of one hundred other problems that could have surfaced ahead of oil running out that has made the question mute. The world cannot really prepare for disasters, because which ones happen at a particular time is not predictable and our resources are way more limited than the amount needed to prepare for all significant potential calamities. All we can really do is adapt to change. That is the success of humans and other species is adapting to change.

What will happen when we run out of oil? We will adapt, based off the lack of oil and a number of other conditions at the time.

[HenrikOlsen]

"Moot" not "mute". The question isn't trying to speak.

[Copernicus]

When one asks the question, what will happen when oil runs out, enormous assumptions are made. There could be a few of one hundred other problems that could have surfaced ahead of oil running out that has made the question mute. The world cannot really prepare for disasters, because which ones happen at a particular time is not predictable and our resources are way more limited than the amount needed to prepare for all significant potential calamities. All we can really do is adapt to change. That is the success of humans and other species is adapting to change.

What will happen when we run out of oil? We will adapt, based off the lack of oil and a number of other conditions at the time.

Costs of fuel and food have gone up in the last few years and income have gone down for many people. My neighbors and I are getting thinner, watering and fertilizing grass less and putting up less christmas lights. Our cars are getting smaller and we are driving less as well. This is just anecdotal, but it is what I have noticed. I also drink coffee now instead of soda, most of the time.

[transreality]

Do they make that claim somewhere and have some detailed discussion about it?

Here is the Full Report:

[Ara Pacis]

My neighbors and I are getting thinner, watering and fertilizing grass less and putting up less christmas lights. Our cars are getting smaller and we are driving less as well. This is just anecdotal, but it is what I have noticed. I also drink coffee now instead of soda, most of the time.

Ah, the plan is working. Muahaha.

[Copernicus]

Ah, the plan is working. Muahaha.

When I went to UWM Milwaukee, use the urinal, all 10 urinals flush at the same time! Don't know if that has changed.

[swampyankee]

I've never watered my lawn; it just encourages a culture of dependency.

[Van Rijn]

Here is the Full Report:

Page reference, please? That's a world energy review, and I see where it discusses reduced energy demand in the recession, not just oil, but less demand for all fossil fuels and nuclear. I can also see where it discusses an OPEC reduced output due to agreement, but I can't find where it makes a claim that world "Peak Oil production has been passed." I even did a search on the word "peak."