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Thread: The Japanese might Quit Space Exploration for good !?

  1. #1
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    The Japanese might Quit Space Exploration for good !?

    There have been many Players in space in the past few years, the Russians putting the first space station up with people working in space and having the first man and woman in outer space, the Americans done great with John Glenn, and having Armstrong , Aldrin and Collins study the lunar surface and they designed wonderful craft like the Viking. Later there came other players the British designs for craft, the French rockets, the Japanese, the Chinese, the Italian designs for probes and now the ESA projects.

    However some people are facing problems, there having been a number of accidents in space. Space plans have to be better and safe and come back with good results and safety like they did in the good days of Space. However now there are economic problems and the world's economy doesn't look like it used to. If you thought the US had space problems then think again, it looks like it might be over for Japan .


    New reports from news casters are saying that Japan is planning a major scale-back of its troubled space program and relying more on other countries for launches, a newspaper report said bad things.



    Some critics would assume that this is testimony that the Japanese Space Agency is as disorganized as any other typical Japanese company and say the next question is when will they learn. Others have said it's a sad truth that Japan seriously lacks the skills and know-hows involved in a huge aerospace project like this. Individual components might not be too bad, but when they are put together it crumbles. Japan had also hoped that the H2-A, meant to be a cheaper and more reliable replacement for its predecessor, the H-2, would boost the country's commercial launch business. But it is still seen as too expensive to compete with European, Russian and American rivals. Costs and finance are becoming a probelm in Japan's economy. Some say it has reached stagnation, saying the scary truth is that almost 50% of the budget is covered by issuing new government bonds. Bonds mostly bought by japanese citizens or investment funds, since foreign banks have been dropping out of the japanese bonds market lately. Others say point is that these bonds could easily become junk bonds, with no return if/when the crack comes. And when people cannot get their savings back because the government allready spent it and has no means of paying it back, in that scenario I would find it much more decent of them to actually call it a tax in the first place.


    Space officials believe the current satellite program is too complex – and have linked its numerous failures to a combination of the long time needed to develop a satellite and an overly ambitious launch schedule – said the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, citing unidentified officials. There was a recent total failure in the Mars mission. Another domestically developed rocket, carrying two Japanese spy satellites, veered off course and was destroyed in mid-air . There were plans to put Japan’s first probe into an orbit around Mars had a huge error and other problems have arisen also un releated to space but link to finance. Critics say the Economy is going stagnant, the exports and leadership has dropped and thailand, China and other Asian nations growth in technology is now starting to cost the Japan economy. Some say to look at the macroeconomic numbers for japan I and know that the japanese national treasury is not exactly swimming in a pool of extra money, but the degree to which would make one almost speechless. Economic problems could make the space industry scale back. Recently a repot came out which said more Japanese committed suicide last year than ever before as poor economic conditions drove greater numbers to end their own lives. Suicides rose 7.1% to 32 082 in 2003 from 29 949 the year before, the Health Ministry said. It was one of the leading causes of death after cancer, heart disease and other illnesses. These problems are costing the nation money so spending on Space could be cut back and there might be a big loss.



    Larger satellite launches need about three years of planning and five years of engineering – but at least one launch had been scheduled per year, it said. The cost of labour is still ultra high in the japan nation and there are also many economic problems faced by Japan. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency is thinking about abandoning that framework. Recently Japan's prime minister Junichiro Koizumi was embroiled in a pensions scandal that has already forced the resignation of his right-hand man and the leader of the main opposition party. If the government raises premium payments made by beneficiaries, the financial obligation of business corporations contributing to the pension system will increase. If the government implements this policy, business corporations will be forced to cut salaries of their employees this will cost industry and production. Some people have said the fall of the eilte households and noble famalies is hurting Japan . They say Japanese economy is failing because of the Keiretsu system doesn't work in a global ecomony, at least not after the Japanese caught up to other major players. My Japanese history is a little weak, but I'll try to briefly explain the Keiretsu as best I know for those that have never heard of them. Hundreds of years ago there were these very powerful sumarai families that got involved in trade and had close ties with Japanese government, sometimes through marriage. These families were called zaibatsus , and even today Japan is still not a democracy, instead it is a sytem of social inequality and hierarchy and is a very closed country to foreign people . The keiretsu companies today are the likes of Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Sanwa, Fuyo, and Ikkan. These companies have vertical and horizontal ownership in the trade process. An auto consumer advocany site has the following to say about Mitsubishi: Mitsubishi has never quite caught on in the U.S. market. Reading the reports in this section suggests that may not be such a bad thing. The company seems to have a higher percentage of glitches than most and it doesn't exactly knock itself out making the customer whole.



    On the private debt side, estimates of the size of bad loans held by banks here range from the official figure of $370 billion to nearly triple that amount. Not only are the banks reluctant to pull plugs on companies, but the government is reluctant to pull plugs on banks.
    On the public debt side, Japan' s political class, top-heavy with men in their 60' s and 70' s, has few qualms about buying social peace today by running up whopping fiscal bills they will never have to pay. Japan' s ratio of government debt to gross domestic product is estimated at 110 percent, the highest of major world economies. The American ratio is around 65 percent. In five more years, it will be close to 200 percent, and that will be intolerable," said Mr. Ito of Tokyo University. " Then, something very unpleasant will happen — hyperinflation, a major devaluation, a major tax increase. The standard of living will decline one way or another. It will be quite a shock." This could mean the end of Japan's Space program.

  2. #2
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    will this ' economic madness ' as some have put it, be the downfall of the space program and space industry ? :-?

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    this would be bad

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    had seen a report before about the troublesome times they had

    http://www.space.com/news/spaceagenc...ce_000627.html



    had wondered why these guys were so happy to let NASA go and let TRMM burn-up. Bad finance and politics getting in the way of good science

    http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2004/07/20040709_trmm_e.html

    http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/1...an.program.ap/

    Unlike the USA none of these science guys react whenever the Japan space budget gets slashed, seems like Ten years of economic stagnation hasn't done much for their space program

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    Is there talk of joint venturing? (or am I revealing my lack of careful reading )

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    There were a good few joint projects, others had joint ventures aswell. Brazil and Japan were at one time going to contribute a number of projects to the ISS but with the Japanese failures and after the rocket blew up on the launch pad in Brazil killing top scinetists I think these guys will pull back for a while. NASA seems to be wanting to go on, but maybe without the ISS.
    I would imagine Russia, Europe and China will continue their joint ventures. The Chinese and ESA are doing launches, while the EU and USA scientists have been working together with the Ulysses craft and the Europeans will be working with NASA on the replacement for Hubble know as the JWST, I doubt that Europe or Russia will pull back from their joint missions like those with NASA, the ESA/NASA projects have been very good. I also think NASA will try it's best to honor it's contracts, except there are many still against the ISS. For Japan and Brazil, it might be the recent failures that has them thinking about pulling away from space projects , rockets and probes which transform into an explosive fireball on the launch pad and the waste of billions of yen is going to cause trouble for some time to some.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Launch window
    For Japan and Brazil, it might be the recent failures that has them thinking about pulling away from space projects
    Brazil is going to keep its space program. Another try for VLS (Brazilian Complete Space Mission, rocket + payload) is scheduled for 2006. Unfortunately Brazil has withdrawn from the ISS (not without massive protests from the scientific community) to concentrate its resources in the development of its own launching capabilities. The country is determined to get a share of the satellite launching market in the near future.

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    Glad to see Brazil might stay the course

    China ? yes I think the Chinese have passed out Japan when it comes to satellites, missile technology and aero space, they have left them in the dust. Soon they might have stronger economics and a better global influence than Japan if they haven't already. I've seen the plan on doing a whole lot more on space, does this mean China has a super power status now that its doing all this with space exploration. It would be good to see China do more, it might tell NASA to get its program together.

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    Heh, it won't be long until it's called WASA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brady Yoon
    Heh, it won't be long until it's called WASA.
    Wasat? WASA would be really something.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by George
    Quote Originally Posted by Brady Yoon
    Heh, it won't be long until it's called WASA.
    Wasat? WASA would be really something.
    Or IASA, like in the Show Farscape.

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    My company just finished a preliminary design review (PDR) for a telemetry system for a new Japanese launch vehicle (albiet a variant on an existing design). Even I was involved in part of the design work.

    News article notwithstanding, that they are spending real Yen for something that is yet to come, is sufficient evidence to me that the Japanese space program will not fold in the immediate future.


    The Brazilians, on the other hand... well, I have a few things to say about their program, as well -- not good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tlbs101
    The Brazilians, on the other hand... well, I have a few things to say about their program, as well -- not good.
    Well, say it. We can live with that.

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    Who knows what will happen. It would be good to see them stay in the space industry, they have had some nice designs in the past but I suppose that may have been back in the 80s when the economy was doing a whole lot better, the Suisei probe of 86 was good which passed the comet at about 7,000,000 Km. Investos are now a little anxious about economics in Japan and the internal affairs, a number of political leaders have started to blame Japan's problems on outside pressure and immigrants, this has investors worried, they think a type of ultra nationalism might be growing and even the UN was bothered by latest events, most especially when the Mayor of Tokyo called a number of ethnic groups 'animals' a number newspapers have said the economy in Japan has been resistant to global change, other economics and globalisation the last 10 years of economic stagnation, rather than trying to sort out the internal problems they have been blamed on outsiders. With the global instability in certain areas of the world a new way of thinking might have started in Japan and the Japanese have been a supporter of the current situation in the middle east. The use of rockets for military puropses and the use of a H2-A to launch Japan's spy satellites into orbit marked for many an ominous departure from Japan's policy to use its space program for peaceful purposes only. Recent pobes to space haven't done so well and Japan might very well back away from Space exploration but we could see that it might consider other areas such as trying to improve its military status, developing nuclear weapons and launching more spy satellites. This could open up a whole new market, for industry and launches. Plans like Nozomi have been bad failures with Japanese scientists unable to repair its various malfunctions and the H2-A has been a costly error when the latest one was destroyed just minutes after liftoff, they are already struggling to make the most the limited resources with uncertain economic they could be facing a smaller budget, there have been many other errors like those with Midori 2 an observation satellite. I can see Japan trying to continue its space program because of the sense of pride or nationalism. Nations like India and Pakistan already have nuclear missile technology and South Korea seems to be doing great with electronics and satellite launches. Japan might want to prove it is still one of the big boys in Asia, will try to improve its military or devote its satellite capabilities to defensive purposes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Argos
    Quote Originally Posted by tlbs101
    The Brazilians, on the other hand... well, I have a few things to say about their program, as well -- not good.

    Well, say it. We can live with that.
    As part of the international ISS effort, Brazil was tasked with the Express Pallette. Express Pallette is a like the science payload of a scientific satellite, but rather than have its own power source, satellite bus, navigation, and communication systems, Express Pallette took all of that from the ISS. The Pallette would be bolted to the outside of the ISS and go along for the ride.

    The Brazilian space agency really bungled the program, missing deadline after deadline, playing politics with the necessary money, until NASA was forced to take it away. This is an indication, albiet a pretty good one, of internal national politics bringing a space program to its death.

    Based on this observation, IMO it would be a miracle if they could do much more than their current level of effort.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tlbs101
    The Brazilian space agency really bungled the program, missing deadline after deadline, playing politics with the necessary money, until NASA was forced to take it away. This is an indication, albiet a pretty good one, of internal national politics bringing a space program to its death.

    Based on this observation, IMO it would be a miracle if they could do much more than their current level of effort.
    I hope you´re not committing an "ad nationem".

    It´s important to say that it´s not a matter of [lack of] competence (or intelligence, or will). Brazil has now a mature aeronautic industry and is on the verge of aquiring space capacity. The civilian scientific community would appreciate a more active participation in the ISS effort. The military (namely the air force), on the other hand, always pressed for concentrating resources in the improvement of Brazilian launching capability. That´s what´s being done currently. The military have won this round. I wished the money was enough to content both sides.

    I regret the political entanglements and the lack of transparency of the process.

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    here is a news article

    http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?o...D13893E5248E0A

    Japan's Space Program Suffers Setbacks

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    they'll continue and try keep going but doubt they will be putting people in space or constructing space stations any time soon

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    Japanese Lunar Probe Facing Delays

    A lunar orbiter that Japan had planned to launch this year could face further delays, possibly until next year or later, because of a funding shortfall and problems developing the probe's information-gathering capabilities, Japan's space agency said Wednesday.

    The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, released a report to a government-run commission explaining expected delays to the launch of the $135 million Lunar-A probe.
    Everything I need to know I learned through Googling.

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    It might be possible that a bulk of internal and economic problems are starting to cost the Japan Space industry..the Nuclear energy sector seems to be rotten, they have much work to do and its going to cost much so Space won't go a priority for a while

    Thankfully we didn't see any large scale disaster, when things go wrong with nuke energy they can go very very wrong

    Maybe they'll try to get back on track

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    A LUNAR orbiter Japan had planned to launch this year has been delayed because of problems with the probe's data transmission system.

    The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency said on its website the Lunar A probe's data-sending equipment and emergency backup systems had to be improved before it could be launched.
    The delay is the latest for the orbiter, which has so far cost $190 million since it was first scheduled to be launched in 1999.
    It's always about money isn't it ! And the public lacking of support for exploration

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    Quote Originally Posted by Launch window
    A LUNAR orbiter Japan had planned to launch this year has been delayed because of problems with the probe's data transmission system.

    The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency said on its website the Lunar A probe's data-sending equipment and emergency backup systems had to be improved before it could be launched.
    The delay is the latest for the orbiter, which has so far cost $190 million since it was first scheduled to be launched in 1999.
    It's always about money isn't it ! And the public lacking of support for exploration
    Well, it's taxpayer's money - no space agency is going to get a blank cheque. And no space agency can put its hand on its heart and say that it doesn't run into delays like that of Lunar A. For the most extreme example, look at Nasa and Gravity Probe B - or Messenger, come to that. But ESA, NASA, you name it - everyone has budget or time overruns. The opposite case is rare.

    As for public support - if you want my 5 cents, it's that ISS/NASDA, now JAXA, have always been really bad at bigging up their successes, particularly in things like X-ray astronomy - and they've done fine at Halley's Comet and with the Hiten moon probe. Their asteroid probe Hayabusa is performing well so far (it has a fair way to go, though), but you don't hear much about it. Maybe they think if you talk about it too much it'll jinx the mission.

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