While not 'xactly PX...

[Toutatis]

At a calculated yield = 200 Gigatons (TNT-Eqv) it could smart 'just as bad as if it were!!!'

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/ne...s:2004JO2;risk

(Note - if viewed much after 5/15/04 ~ 13:00 (UTC) the info linked above won't likely be very interesting)

So buy yourself a turkey ranch, observe thanksgiving on the fourth and luxuriate in life made better through catastrophism!

Ahem! Speaking of PX???

PS To anyone worrying about 2004-JO2 --- A single word --Don't!!!

With regards
Sarandon

[WolfKC]

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/ne...iskpage:0;main
I was noticing the list of lost objects. I wonder if the Zetas took them. 8)

[tmosher]

It's those Zetas again. They're a bunch of pack rats who collect objects and tack them onto Planet X. Where do you think all those swirling moons came from?

Tom

[Toutatis]

Sorry about that (i.e. my failure to follow-up that is) --- "time time time never ask what’s become of us just dedicate your sorrow..." - (Attrib: Simon? Wilson? - I dunno...)

ANYWAY for a very short interval (a few hours) NeoDys (via CLOMON2) was showing a very low rated Earth VI (Re: 2004 J02) @ Nov 4/2004 --- HOWEVER data derived through subsequent observations have ABSOLUTELY ELIMINATED LIABILITY TO EARTH ENCOUNTER WITH SAID OBJECT FOR AT LEAST TEN DECADES --- BTW I'm *not* shouting - merely emphasizing...

Also please don't let my new signature 'throw ya' --- It is *not* a prediction, merely a 'wake-up call' --- I believe we're on our own *period!!!* - That the 'big put-together' is utterly indifferent - hence we must look to all facets of our survival... But hey! --- For the more piously inclined I offer the age-old refrain; "God helps those who help themselves"

With respect & very best regards
Dan Sarandon

[N C More]

I believe we're on our own *period!!!* - That the 'big put-together' is utterly indifferent - hence we must look to all facets of our survival... But hey! --- For the more piously inclined I offer the age-old refrain; "God helps those who help themselves" [img]

I couldn't agree more! Another enlightened quotation for us to consider:

To be idle is a short road to death and to be diligent is a way of life; foolish people are idle, wise people are diligent.
--Buddha (B.C.E. 568-488)

[PhantomWolf]

You know, if the earth has been going around the sun for close to 4.2 billion years then I honestly doubt that any rocks that have a well established orbit will be threat to us. If they haven't hit us in the last 4.2 billion years, they aren't likely too because obviously the orbits are such that they'll never be in the same place to the same time. That leaves two groups of objects to watch for. Newbies who have just entered the system and those that have had their orbits changed by a collision or if a comet, but a close past with another planet. Comets are the most likely source of danger, either hitting us directly or knocking something into us, because again asteroids etc have had 4.2 billion years of established orbits to interact with a planet and hit us, and they haven't, so they aren't going to suddenly change course and do it now. This means we really only need to keep on eye out for comets and they are pretty easy to spot and track so we'll know if they hit something and send it our way, or start heading our wy themselves.

[Toutatis]

Agreed -- Long and Non periodic comets are indeed worrisome - A liability (IMO) owed not so much to their P(re)s but to the *very* limited lead time available should such an impactor be discovered (a good argument for preexisting infrastructure!)

On the other hand let us not so readily dismiss the asteroid threat - Their perturbation by all objects (as opposed to collision with other small bodies) poses the primary risk factor (hence the [even so - over-conservative] .05 AU (Earth MOID) PHO 'definition' Note that many objects showing VIs have MOIDs approaching 0.1 AU) --- Indeed minor objects have been 'buzzing around' since Earth's formation - buzzing around *AND, TOO FREQUENTLY FOR COMFORT, COLLIDING!!!*

Best regards
Dan Sarandon

[2001Intrepid]

I've been doing a lot of reading on the asteroid threat and the current research being done. But not too much is mentioned, at least in my sources, regarding comets. Is it expected that a cometary impact would be just as devastating as asteroidal, anyone?

[Toutatis]

Is it expected that a cometary impact would be just as devastating as asteroidal, anyone?

Inasmuch as the mean (relative) velocities of NECs run ~ 2.7 that of NEAs coupled with the observation that average (nuclear) diameters of the former average 10 KM (while the latter only rarely exceed ~ 3 km) the answer to your question is a resounding *VERY MUCH MORE SO!!!* --- However I wish to make one point crystal clear - The 'increased' yield attendant to a 'typical' commentary impact is *solely* owed to this correspondingly increased kinetic energy. (and corollaries thereof - e.g. release and subsequent combustion of methane from hydrates, etc.) To date comets composed of antimatter are strictly N. E. I.!!! --- BTW I am GENUINELY interested in the origin of that particular -- surprisingly widespread -- misconception??? (i.e. the comet/antimater myth)

I apologize that I ignore statistics Re: comparative density figures...

Very best regards
Sarandon

[2001Intrepid]

You must have been reading my mind, Dan. I suppose you've seen the website as posted elsewhere regarding the "antimatter" comets and our soon demise next year Thanks for negating that one!
http://www.matter-antimatter.com/armageddon.htm

[Toutatis]

LOL! --- Thanks intrepid!!! That's the first I've seen DI 'swimming' in the 'A.M.ers' veritable fountain of misinformation

Indeed the linked caveat reads like a report by Mr. Scott of Star trek (The original series) "Captain! She'll not take this pace! we're gonna go up in the biggest fireball this side of The Big Bang!!!"

Dear old NASA!!! - apropos to the end --- Jul 4!!!


Seriously though, ya gotta wonder what their (i.e. the anti-matter 'enthusiasts') game is in purveyance of so obvious a hoax? Mere radio (and, FTM, visual) observation of interaction between the debris trail and Solar wind disproves the antimatter claim hands down --- Well somebody's collecting, or preparing to collect, the 'green' - of that we can be certain... --- Still it seems a tangled -even if rather tenuous- skein at best?! But then I suppose bald-faced deceit is as effective as 'artful guile' to all who want to believe... Or could it be the "A.M. folks" have some pecuniary interest in seeing DI aborted??? --- Despite the possibility of private wagers I can't imagine it --- How truly it be a rum old world!

Very best regards
Sarandon