Comet Elenin Cause Of Earthquakes?

**TatsuRoll** · 2011-Mar-11, 09:17 PM

I came across this video of a female who said that last year around February 27. Comet Elenin was in alignment with the Sun and the Earth, and when that happened the big earthquake and Chile happened.

Now she posted this video on March 8th, saying that it's about to happen again. Same thing with Comet Elenin, and 2 days later the big earthquake in Japan happened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95zMd...embedded#at=98

I'm not usually the type to believe in these things, but having her saying something is going to happen BEFORE and it actually does. Just makes me think.

Now I know earthquakes happen around the world everyday, but this was a pretty significant quake.

**Swift** · 2011-Mar-11, 10:19 PM

Welcome to BAUT TatsuRoll.

I can't watch the video yet (YouTube is a blocked site where I work), but why would a comet cause an earthquake. A comet is not a very massive object and Comet Elenin is very far away. I haven't done the calculations, but I feel comfortable saying that the forces exerted on the Earth by the sun and the moon (as in tides) are much, much greater than anything from this comet.

**TatsuRoll** · 2011-Mar-11, 10:26 PM

Yeah, that's true. That's how I feel about it too.

I just find it crazy that from her "graph" it showed "Comet Elenin" being in alignment with the Earth and Sun and that was the day of the big Chile Earthquake. Then she made a video on March 8th, with the same graph showing that there will be another alignment occuring on March 11th and then the big earthquake/tsunami did happen, in Tokyo.

**Garrison** · 2011-Mar-11, 10:48 PM

Originally Posted by TatsuRoll

I came across this video of a female who said that last year around February 27. Comet Elenin was in alignment with the Sun and the Earth, and when that happened the big earthquake and Chile happened.

Now she posted this video on March 8th, saying that it's about to happen again. Same thing with Comet Elenin, and 2 days later the big earthquake in Japan happened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95zMd...embedded#at=98

I'm not usually the type to believe in these things, but having her saying something is going to happen BEFORE and it actually does. Just makes me think.

Now I know earthquakes happen around the world everyday, but this was a pretty significant quake.

If enough crackpots make enough predictions one of them is bound to get lucky(if you will pardon the use of that expression in this context). It's no different than Velikovsky and the temperature of Venus. And I'll offer this link that I posted in the adjacent thread claiming the Large Hadron Collider caused the earthquake:

History of Japanese Earthquakes

The earthquake today is sadly not unusual in that part of the world.

**Selenite** · 2011-Mar-12, 01:40 AM

Originally Posted by TatsuRoll

I'm not usually the type to believe in these things, but having her saying something is going to happen BEFORE and it actually does. Just makes me think.

Now I know earthquakes happen around the world everyday, but this was a pretty significant quake.

You may wish to check her previous track record for major quakes she predicted that didn't take place if she hasn't managed to sweep them under the carpet. The odds are that if you keep spouting a steady stream of predictions, you're going to be correct. Just like the broken clock that is spot on twice a day.

So far a comet and the Hadron Collider have been blamed for the temblor. Can a hysterical HAARP thread be far behind?

**LaurelHS** · 2011-Mar-12, 02:14 AM

Well, if it wasn't HAARP, it must have been Nibiru.

**TatsuRoll** · 2011-Mar-12, 02:48 AM

Originally Posted by Selenite

You may wish to check her previous track record for major quakes she predicted that didn't take place if she hasn't managed to sweep them under the carpet. The odds are that if you keep spouting a steady stream of predictions, you're going to be correct. Just like the broken clock that is spot on twice a day.

So far a comet and the Hadron Collider have been blamed for the temblor. Can a hysterical HAARP thread be far behind?

What previous track record? I checked and it seemed like this is one of her first "predictions" the other one she made is to take place according to her on "October" of 2011.

**Shaula** · 2011-Mar-12, 07:17 AM

On average there are 16 quakes a year larger than M7. And 150 larger than M6. So betting on one happening in a month is pretty good odds... The only thing she has got a correlation with here is media coverage of quakes - she said things would happen when two that happened to be near major population centres went off. And the Christchurch one was M5 point something IIRC. Putting it in the exclusive club of 1469 per year equal in size or larger.

**Van Rijn** · 2011-Mar-12, 08:42 AM

I tried to watch the video, but she talks in a rambling monotone (when she's talking - sometimes you just hear the click of her mouse) and I have little patience for that, so I gave up without watching much. I did notice that she has other videos with religious event, conspiracy, disaster, "pole shift" and "end of the world" themes, so an earthquake prediction would fit right in. Also, claims about comets have been popular for a very long time. Anyway, there's no mechanism for a comet to cause an earthquake short of an impact.

**Daggerstab** · 2011-Mar-12, 09:44 AM

The blog of the discoverer is here:
http://spaceobs.org
He's been receiving a lot of comments lately and most of them are not from fellow amateur astronomers.

**TatsuRoll** · 2011-Mar-12, 09:51 AM

I have no idea what that is saying, haha.

**gwiz** · 2011-Mar-12, 10:30 AM

Why pick out Comet Elenin? It's still a very long way away, there must be hundreds of thousands of larger and nearer objects in the solar system, and on average 0.3% of them align with the earth every day.

**slang** · 2011-Mar-12, 10:48 AM

I bet you can find a youtube video predicting something bad for any week, if not day, of the year.

**streather** · 2011-Mar-12, 06:53 PM

It's one of those rare coincidences where someone spouting rubbish actually gets a prediction correct by pure luck.

Comet Elenin did not cause the earthquake, the LHC did not cause the earthquake, HAARP did not cause the earthquake.

**publiusr** · 2011-Mar-12, 07:49 PM

Exactly

If anything, it is the tidal forces of planets that are the bane of comets---Roche limit and all. SL9 anyone?

**kamaz** · 2011-Mar-12, 10:46 PM

Originally Posted by TatsuRoll

I came across this video of a female who said that last year around February 27. Comet Elenin was in alignment with the Sun and the Earth, and when that happened the big earthquake and Chile happened.

Rephrasing to proper terminology, her claim is that there is a magic angle between comet Elenin and the Sun which causes earthquakes. Let's use the ephemeris calculation software to calculate the Sun-Elenin angle for some dates of interest. First the Chile quake (2010/2/17):

2010/2/16 12:00:00 168:48:08.6
2010/2/17 12:00:00 169:56:44.5
2010/2/18 12:00:00 171:05:21.1

So the magic angle seems to be 170 deg. or thereabouts. Okay, let's now look at March 2011:

2011/3/1 12:00:00 163:01:07.0
2011/3/2 12:00:00 164:16:37.0
2011/3/3 12:00:00 165:32:23.6
2011/3/4 12:00:00 166:48:25.5
2011/3/5 12:00:00 168:04:41.1
2011/3/6 12:00:00 169:21:07.9 <- best fit
2011/3/7 12:00:00 170:37:42.8 <- somewhere here
2011/3/8 12:00:00 171:54:20.4
2011/3/9 12:00:00 173:10:52.3
2011/3/10 12:00:00 174:27:02.3
2011/3/11 12:00:00 175:42:16.3 <- Japan quake
2011/3/12 12:00:00 176:55:06.0
2011/3/13 12:00:00 178:00:32.7

So she's actually off by ~5 days. Taking into account that the Sun/Elenin angle changes by over 1 degree per day, she's also off by ~6 degrees. I mean, if there was indeed a magic angle, the earthquake would happen at 170 degrees, not at 176, right?

**kamaz** · 2011-Mar-12, 11:54 PM

It seems that I can do better then her.

I downloaded comet data from Minor Planet Center and for each one, calculated the Sun-comet angle on 2010/2/17 and 2011/3/11. I mean, if it is an earthquake predictor, then the angle should be the same on both dates. However, this is magic, so we can be a bit more flexible, and require the angles to be within +/- 6 degrees of each other. (The woman gets 5.71 degree error with Elenin). Okay, I run the code...

Out of 209 comets in database, 33 (15.79%) pass the test. P/1997 C1 (Gehrels) has the best fit, with only 0.43 degrees difference. 237P/LINEAR is a close second, forming the same angle with the Sun on both dates with 0.46 degree error. The bronze medal goes to 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann, which has it right down to 0.58 degrees. Another recently famous contestant, C/2006 Q1 (McNaught) erred 1.06 degrees, landing sixth place, just 0.12 degrees worse than CL94 (Lemmon)... Everyone's favorite, C/2010 X1 (Elenin) is a huge disappointment at #33 with 5.71 degree error.

The list is below. Format: error, magic angle, comet name.

Code:

 0.43  13.0 P/1997 C1 (Gehrels)
 0.46  25.1 237P/LINEAR
 0.58 173.0 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann
 0.77  83.5 P/2003 HT15 (LINEAR)
 0.94 104.7 P/2008 CL94 (Lemmon)
 1.06  64.6 C/2006 Q1 (McNaught)
 1.30  24.9 C/2007 B2 (Skiff)
 1.50  89.1 C/2010 D3 (WISE)
 1.53  14.8 C/2005 EL173 (LONEOS)
 1.66  12.7 187P/LINEAR
 1.90 163.0 37P/Forbes
 1.98   7.3 111P/Helin-Roman-Crockett
 2.00  34.9 C/2009 K2 (Catalina)
 2.60 160.3 C/2009 U5 (Grauer)
 2.70 170.8 P/2007 H1 (McNaught)
 2.85 121.2 128P/Shoemaker-Holt
 3.15 127.1 C/2007 S2 (Lemmon)
 3.18 123.8 195P/Hill
 3.20  52.4 P/2004 FY140 (LINEAR)
 3.75 137.6 P/2005 S2 (Skiff)
 4.11  93.5 C/2008 A1 (McNaught)
 4.45  66.3 119P/Parker-Hartley
 4.68  19.3 97P/Metcalf-Brewington
 4.77 114.0 P/2008 Y3 (McNaught)
 4.77  11.4 P/1996 A1 (Jedicke)
 4.78 165.8 179P/Jedicke
 4.83 111.1 P/2007 R1 (Larson)
 4.83  37.9 C/2008 T2 (Cardinal)
 4.98 111.7 C/2009 F2 (McNaught)
 5.43 124.2 P/2010 H5 (Scotti)
 5.57   7.7 P/1998 U3 (Jager)
 5.64  66.5 P/1997 T3 (Lagerkvist-Carsenty)
 5.71 169.4 C/2010 X1 (Elenin)

The code used for calculations is here: http://pastebin.com/mJmrZN70

**kamaz** · 2011-Mar-13, 12:04 AM

In case the above post is too technical for someone:

There are 32 other comets which "predict" the Japan earthquake better then Elenin.

In fact, there are almost certainly more such comets, for the simple reason that I used the Minor Planet Center database, which lists only 209 comets, and I am quite sure that the Solar System has a lot of comets which are undiscovered / too small / whatever to be registered by MPC.

I understand that lack of reliable methods of earthquake prediction can be frustrating, but comets are worthless for this purpose. Period.

**Tenshu** · 2011-Mar-13, 12:16 AM

Taking one look at the comments in the video, there's no point in going in there again.

It's been taken over by many people who believe that because of this one earthquake 2012 is going to happen now for certain.

**Van Rijn** · 2011-Mar-13, 12:35 AM

Originally Posted by gwiz

Why pick out Comet Elenin? It's still a very long way away, there must be hundreds of thousands of larger and nearer objects in the solar system, and on average 0.3% of them align with the earth every day.

I think it comes down to name recognition. This is a comet that's been mentioned in the news, as it might eventually put on a good show. Most of that other stuff is never mentioned in the popular news, so it's doubtful that someone that would make claims like this would be aware of it.

**Van Rijn** · 2011-Mar-13, 12:51 AM

Originally Posted by kamaz

It seems that I can do better then her.

I downloaded comet data from Minor Planet Center and for each one, calculated the Sun-comet angle on 2010/2/17 and 2011/3/11. I mean, if it is an earthquake predictor, then the angle should be the same on both dates. However, this is magic, so we can be a bit more flexible, and require the angles to be within +/- 6 degrees of each other. (The woman gets 5.71 degree error with Elenin). Okay, I run the code...

Out of 209 comets in database, 33 (15.79%) pass the test. P/1997 C1 (Gehrels) has the best fit, with only 0.43 degrees difference. 237P/LINEAR is a close second, forming the same angle with the Sun on both dates with 0.46 degree error. The bronze medal goes to 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann, which has it right down to 0.58 degrees. Another recently famous contestant, C/2006 Q1 (McNaught) erred 1.06 degrees, landing sixth place, just 0.12 degrees worse than CL94 (Lemmon)... Everyone's favorite, C/2010 X1 (Elenin) is a huge disappointment at #33 with 5.71 degree error.

Nice analysis. Of course, I doubt that it would even occur to someone like this to check for other comets or have any idea of how to do it.

**Van Rijn** · 2011-Mar-13, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by Tenshu

Taking one look at the comments in the video, there's no point in going in there again.

It's been taken over by many people who believe that because of this one earthquake 2012 is going to happen now for certain.

Get used to it. I did a Google search, and aside from this video, it looks like the 2012 folks have latched onto Elenin as their latest Nibiru candidate, so I expect we'll be hearing more of this type of stuff.

**Swift** · 2011-Mar-13, 03:25 AM

Originally Posted by Tenshu

It's been taken over by many people who believe that because of this one earthquake 2012 is going to happen now for certain.

Well, I think they are correct. I am 100% certain that 2012 will happen, mostly likely between 31 December 2011 and 1 January 2013, though I don't think this earthquake is the cause.

**TatsuRoll** · 2011-Mar-14, 10:26 PM

Thanks for doing the calculations Kamaz, and to everyone who replied.

**seewolf** · 2011-May-29, 05:38 AM

just facts - check for yourself...

elenin calculation from NASA:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sst...og=0;cad=1#cad

planetary alignments can be calculated with:

SimSolar 2.0

http://www.pwr-tools.com/simsolar/index.htm

earth quake database:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/

real pictures from elenin:

http://gustavomuler.fotografiaastron...metas/C1010X1/

Strange behaviour of C/2010 X1 (Elenin) discussion:

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/c.../message/17396

Cornell University Dr. Mensur Omerbashich paper, "Astronomical alignments as the cause of M6+ seismicity."

You can view it here:*

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1104/1104.2036.pdf

dates to watch for:

calculated planetary alignments and alignments with elenin:

6 15 2011 *(moon earth sun mercury)

8 15 2011 *(neptune moon earth mercury sun venus)

9 27 2011 *(uranus earth moon elenin (0.38AU) sun mercury venus saturn) +
** * * * * * * (neptune earth mars)

11 11 2011 *(elenin (0.42AU) moon earth mercury venus saturn) +
** * * * * * * * (uranus earth mars)

12 12 2012 *(jupiter earth moon mercury venus)

12 21 2012 *(elenin (5.2AU) earth sun) + (jupiter moon earth)

conclusion:*

another 9+ earthquake in 2011 is highly possible.

it could even be stronger than the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake or Great Chilean earthquake 22 May 1960, which is to date the most powerful earthquake ever recorded on Earth. A 9+ earthquake in the central USA would be just what we need now...

**Daggerstab** · 2011-May-29, 08:25 AM