Where is my promised future? (2010 in reality and 2010 in fiction)

[Zvezdichko]

Today it's 2010. We have laptops, we have cell phones, iPods, mp3 players and other cool stuff.

Despite this, the future is not what it was supposed to be. Just take a look at 2010: Second odyssey. Where's my big rotating station? Where's Clavius? Where's Tzien and manned landings on Europa? Where are the great ships to Jupiter? Where are the hibernation pods? Where are HAL and SAL?

What went so wrong that the future is not what it was supposed to be?

And before you say "Well, it was just sci-fi, the future was never going to be that good", I'll remind you that von Braun was not a recognized sci-fi writer. He said: "By the year 2000 we will undoubtedly have a sizable operation on the Moon, we will have achieved a manned Mars landing, and it's entirely possible we will have flown with men to the outer planets."

[Clive Tester]

In an alternative future, John Young steps foot on mars in 1986.

I think this would have been possible if the political motivation had been there. But once the moon race had been won, the primary driving force for deep space manned missions was not there.

The rapid advance in the early space programs of the Soviet Union and the USA, were born of a special political era: the Cold War.

Maybe if the USSR program had been just a little further ahead, and Alexei Leonov had looped around the moon in Zond in 1968 before the Apollo 8 lunar orbital mission, then perhaps the dynamic would have been such, that John Young would be first on mars in 1986.

[jokergirl]

I agree - in fact, I just bought this T-shirt to be grouchy about it:
http://www.threadless.com/product/63/Damn_Scientists



Actually, if anyone asks, I'll say "But I'm an engineer - I make my own jetpacks!" but that doesn't mean that I shouldn't be designing the next generation futuristic transport instead of one that's been talked about since the 50es.

[NEOWatcher]

What went so wrong that the future is not what it was supposed to be?

Investment capital.

I'm not sure that vonBraun was talking in relation to funding.

It's absolutely amazing what we do have in some areas. So, I see it as a balance of what things we expected and didn't get against the things we didn't expect and did get.

A profit motive driven by usefullness has a lot to do with it. Safety regulations are another.

I keep seeing things about computerized roadways and such, but never hear about potential costs. I see no way that something like that (in the public sector) would ever get funded.

[Argos]

Yeah, the future is no longer as fun as it used to be...

[DonM435]

But it is where you and I will spend the rest of our lives . . .

[KaiYeves]

The future is not free.

[John Jaksich]

Today it's 2010. We have laptops, we have cell phones, iPods, mp3 players and other cool stuff.

Despite this, the future is not what it was supposed to be. Just take a look at 2010: Second odyssey. Where's my big rotating station? Where's Clavius? Where's Tzien and manned landings on Europa? Where are the great ships to Jupiter? Where are the hibernation pods? Where are HAL and SAL?

What went so wrong that the future is not what it was supposed to be?

And before you say "Well, it was just sci-fi, the future was never going to be that good", I'll remind you that von Braun was not a recognized sci-fi writer. He said: "By the year 2000 we will undoubtedly have a sizable operation on the Moon, we will have achieved a manned Mars landing, and it's entirely possible we will have flown with men to the outer planets."

My very humble opinion is you are in control of your future unless you have relinquished control to someone else. Zvezdichko, anyone who tells you differently is pulling the wool over your eyes. Even if it means moving to a different continent . . . no one can make you feel inadequate unless you give them permission---that is what I firmly believe.

Please don't misinterpret my motive --it is not meant to be harsh or derogatory.

[Gillianren]

Am I the only person who thinks that personal jetpacks are, for the general populations, a horrible idea? Ditto flying cars?

But let's look at this another direction. A friend of mine spent the day with his father, who was having doctors' appointments preparatory to surgery. Eye surgery. Where, apparently, he'll be having part of the lens of his eye replaced. In a way which certainly wasn't possible before. I mean, we donated my dad's corneas when he died, but the lens? Isn't that amazing? Isn't having this conversation at all amazing? No, we don't have Moon colonies, because no one wanted to spend the money for Moon colonies. But last night, I sent a message to a cousin I haven't seen since some time in the mid-'90s and who lives in California, and he got back to me within hours. Twenty years ago, we wouldn't even communicate with each other, but today, we could in theory have a real-time conversation without paying long distance charges.

[jokergirl]

Yeah, they are, but they're iconic I don't actually want personal jetpacks, but I was expecting a whole lot more from the future anyway.
On the other hand, look at all the unexpected things we got! Internet! DNA robots! Life! (Yeah, I know that last one is debatable.)

We may not be at Mars yet, which I think is disappointing, but at least something is happening...

[Jens]

On the other hand, look at all the unexpected things we got! Internet! DNA robots! Life!.

Not to mention the RSStroom Reader. Who could have ever guessed?

[Zvezdichko]

Actually, my thread was provoked by this post:

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2010/0...auts-at-t.html

... there's an amazing similarity between the ISS and the fictional spacecraft from the inside.

I'm glad some things became reality, but I'm still very frustrated that we're far from the great achievements envisioned in the movie.

[Cave Dweller]

We didn't get that nuclear war that was supposed to destroy civilisation either.

[Swift]

But let's look at this another direction. A friend of mine spent the day with his father, who was having doctors' appointments preparatory to surgery. Eye surgery. Where, apparently, he'll be having part of the lens of his eye replaced. In a way which certainly wasn't possible before.

The mom of a friend of ours was a nurse 30 years ago in a hospital where they did eye surgery. In those days, if you had cataract surgery, you had to lie completely still for days while it healed. A lot of her job was taking care (feeding, etc.) of these patients who could not move. My wife had cataract surgery as an out-patient. Similarly, she had her gall bladder removed laproscopically as an out-patient surgery. The medical advances have been amazing.

We didn't get that nuclear war that was supposed to destroy civilisation either.

As a child of the "duck and cover" era, I can really appreciate that. I had serious fears as a child that we would not make it out of the 60s.

I also recall remarkable little science fiction of the 50s / 60s and even the 70s that came close to predicting the computer and telecommunications advances that have happened.

[Fazor]

Everybody always complains that their sci-fi-future promises haven't come true, but they seem to ignore the fact that the sci-fi-future nightmares, such as killer robots or near extinction inducing weaponry hasn't come true either! Fight the change! Down with Skynet! Return to post industrial standards of living! Rah rah rah!

Oh, right. Sorry. Just wanted to be different.

[Gillianren]

Maybe it depends on what sci-fi you read.

[Disinfo Agent]

Let that be a lesson: science fiction is fiction, and scientists are generally not good prophets.

Then again, who is?

[danscope]

Hi, Nothing wrong with flying cars. But understand that they will surely use an airstrip to land and take off. You don't want to go down the street with some very expensive components only to be wacked by some cell phone zombie. No. No one is going to drop out of the sky and land on you while you are driving. That is NOT what a flying car should do.
I hope this clears up a few nervous feelings about future transportation.
Best regards,
Dan

[KaiYeves]

Let that be a lesson: science fiction is fiction

Precisely, Disinfo Agent.

Personally, I think anything that exists in reality is automatically cooler than things in fiction that might be much better, simply by virtue of being REAL. Yes, I love Star Wars and I love the Millenium Falcon, but I know it only flies between distant planets on movie screens and in comics and books while the shuttles may only fly to low orbit, but are ACTUAL spacecraft that REAL people ride in on REAL missions.

That's just my two cents.

[kleindoofy]

... I think anything that exists in reality is automatically cooler than things in fiction that might be much better ...

And many things that could be and even end up coming into existence disappear again when society realizes it doesn't really want them.

Remember Simmons drums, the "future" of musical instruments?

[Gillianren]

Hi, Nothing wrong with flying cars. But understand that they will surely use an airstrip to land and take off. You don't want to go down the street with some very expensive components only to be wacked by some cell phone zombie. No. No one is going to drop out of the sky and land on you while you are driving. That is NOT what a flying car should do.

Yeah, well, not-flying cars aren't supposed to careen into one another. And yet.

[danscope]

Aircraft will always be governed by air traffic corridors and controled air space. It's a non-problem.

[Gillianren]

Aircraft will always be governed by air traffic corridors and controled air space. It's a non-problem.

Yes, which is why there are never near or actual midair collisions between major aircraft. Oh, wait . . . .

[stutefish]

Today it's 2010. We have laptops, we have cell phones, iPods, mp3 players and other cool stuff.

Despite this, the future is not what it was supposed to be. Just take a look at 2010: Second odyssey. Where's my big rotating station? Where's Clavius? Where's Tzien and manned landings on Europa? Where are the great ships to Jupiter? Where are the hibernation pods? Where are HAL and SAL?

Since your scenario has futurists totally failing in their predictions, both in omitting all the "cool stuff" we actually have, and in predicting a bunch of stuff we don't have, I'd say the most easy and obvious answer is that the futurists aren't very good at predicting the future.

[kleindoofy]

... the most easy and obvious answer is that the futurists aren't very good at predicting the future.

No, those so-called futurists, whoever they may be, are in fact very poor at predicting the future.

That is simply because predictions are always based on extrapolations of contemporary systems and technology. They can't take unknown developments into account.

So guess what? Most or all of the predictions being made today about the future are just as wrong as those being lamented in this thread.

[Jens]

As a child of the "duck and cover" era, I can really appreciate that. I had serious fears as a child that we would not make it out of the 60s.

Maybe this should be a separate thread, but I entered elementary school in about 1970, and I think I remember air raid drills. Does anybody know when they were stopped in the US? I've heard references to "the sixties and seventies."

[Gillianren]

We had one when I was in seventh grade--doing the math, this would have been the '89-'90 school year. No one took it very seriously, and it's the only one I remember from my entire childhood. A lot of earthquake drills, though.

[Van Rijn]

Maybe this should be a separate thread, but I entered elementary school in about 1970, and I think I remember air raid drills. Does anybody know when they were stopped in the US? I've heard references to "the sixties and seventies."

I was in elementary up through '71, and I can't remember drills. Then again, maybe I've forgotten them. I think I still have my father's civil defense card around someplace, along with a government pamphlet on building your own fallout shelters, and a thick book with detailed fallout effects information.

I do remember in high school we had an air raid siren next to the school, and they tested it at 11:00AM on Fridays once a month. I remember always checking that it was 11:00AM. And there was one time when something went wrong and it didn't stop. That caused a bit of concern.

[DonM435]

Maybe this should be a separate thread, but I entered elementary school in about 1970, and I think I remember air raid drills. Does anybody know when they were stopped in the US? I've heard references to "the sixties and seventies."

Maybe the satire had its effect.

There was an infamous poster that instructed one as to what to do when there was a nuclear attack.

(Actually, there were at least two. One simply said that in the event of such, the federal regulation against praying in school was temporarily rescinded.)

It said to remove sharp objects from your pockets. Keep away from windows. Face away from the blast. Etc. Etc.

The final two items said that, at detonation, (penultimately) place your head between your legs, and (ultimately) kiss your [butt] goodbye.

The word "butt" was not used, not exactly.

[Jens]

There was an infamous poster that instructed one as to what to do when there was a nuclear attack.

I remember that poster. I wonder if it dates me to say so.