What would be the effects of Nibiru on the asteroid belt?

[Hungry4info]

Most exoplanets are discovered by means of differential magnitude.

According to the EPE, 425 planets have been detected with doppler spectroscopy, and 81 have been detected with differential photometry (the vast majority of which were discovered that way).

Yes. That's the brilliance of Neptune's discovery: a differential analysis on where Uranus was seen to be and where it was observed to be pointed to the likely position of Neptune, which was then observed directly after the predictions narrowed the field to search.

Ah, alright. Thanks for that bit of info.

A.DIM patiently reminds us that not all Nibiruphiles accept the 2012 return date, and that's fine; it's out of scope for this particular thread. But if it's meant to arrive in 2012 and has the mass of several Jupiters, we should already be seeing it as a reflective object.

I suppose hypothetically you could rig up an (unbound) orbit that would allow for a sufficiently rapid approach velocity to have "Nibiru" out in the Oort cloud now, and in the asteroid belt in two years, but this wouldn't satisfy their 3,600 year period thing and more closely resemble a flyby.

Either way, as we all agree, the object they describe is unphysical.

[R.A.F.]

I must admit I was rather surprised to see that article about the planetary system with jupiter-like bodies in inclined elliptical orbits, announced only a few weeks ago. Sitchin proposed a similar solar system in '77.

Velikovsky proposed a "hot Venus" before it was directly observed, and he got that right...yet it would take a page and a half to post everything he got wrong.

Sitchin's "proposition" is in no way meaningful and it was not arrived at scientifically...it's called coincidence and it happens all the time.

[JayUtah]

...

According to the EPE, 425 planets have been detected with doppler spectroscopy, and 81 have been detected with differential photometry...

Okay, then I stand corrected. I think the point I was getting at was that Fomalhaut's planet was relatively unique in having been discovered by inference from observed gravitational effect. Most others seem to be discovered by some photometric technique. In any case trying to generalize or apply them to a search for Nibiru has to examine the problem in more detail.

I suppose hypothetically you could rig up an (unbound) orbit that would allow for a sufficiently rapid approach velocity to have "Nibiru" out in the Oort cloud now, and in the asteroid belt in two years, but this wouldn't satisfy their 3,600 year period thing and more closely resemble a flyby.

Sure. You could postulate a hyperbolic orbit. But as you say, any orbit with a period (3,600 years or otherwise) must be a closed orbit and therefore bounded by some strict laws of motion even if some of its parameters are unknown.

A highly eccentric orbit is long and skinny. You can say its perihelion might be only 3 AU out, but what that means is that it's going to stay within 3-5 AU of the ecliptic for most of its journey through the solar system, even with the least favorable inclination. It will therefore have a gravitational effect on the planets -- in this case to draw them out of plane.

Either way, as we all agree, the object they describe is unphysical.

Indeed.

[NGCHunter]

Indeed such an object is unphysical and in order to move from the oort cloud to asteroid belt distances in 2 years time I think you'll find it would have to be traveling at a significant fraction of c, about 16% (47437 km/sec), and far higher than even galactic escape velocity. This is incompatible with their claims about a 3600 year orbit, or any kind of previous visit at all. I don't know of any galactic object that travels that fast relative to the sun. The fastest object I can find is a pulsar being kicked out of the galaxy by the force of its own supernova at a mere 1100km/sec.

[Bobbar]

Phil posted this in his blog a while back. A star being ejected at 400,000 km/h. Not exactly a brown dwarf, however.

[NGCHunter]

Fast as 400,000 km/hr is, that's "only" 111 km/sec. It would have to be traveling about 427 times that fast to get from the oort cloud to the asteroid belt in 2 years. To put it another way, it would take that speedy star about 854 years to travel from the oort cloud to the asteroid belt. And as you say, it's a far cry from a brown dwarf, so we'd see something that large a long, long time before it got here. It'd no doubt be naked eye brightness even from as far as the oort cloud.

[Tenshu]

Fast as 400,000 km/hr is, that's "only" 111 km/sec. It would have to be traveling about 427 times that fast to get from the oort cloud to the asteroid belt in 2 years. To put it another way, it would take that speedy star about 854 years to travel from the oort cloud to the asteroid belt. And as you say, it's a far cry from a brown dwarf, so we'd see something that large a long, long time before it got here. It'd no doubt be naked eye brightness even from as far as the oort cloud.

or infared too i do belive would catch it as well by now...if it was real.

[parallaxicality]

This is Sitchin's diagram of Nibiru's orbit

[A.DIM]

A.DIM patiently reminds us that not all Nibiruphiles accept the 2012 return date, and that's fine; it's out of scope for this particular thread. But if it's meant to arrive in 2012 and has the mass of several Jupiters, we should already be seeing it as a reflective object.

Jay, the OP never suggested a Nibiru return in 2012, that was Starfury's construct. I'm unsure why you feel that became the "scope" of this thread. Again, I concur with the strawman "if it's meant to arrive in 2012..." but the fact remains Nibiru, according to the hypothesis' originator, isn't meant to arrive in 2012. Those who say so, just as with those pre '03, are spreading misinformation. I find it as easy, if not easier, to counter such claims by simply pointing this out.

[A.DIM]

This is Sitchin's diagram of Nibiru's orbit

If Sitchin's Nibiru exists it is some 1400yrs away, and moving very slowly against the background stars of the galactic center, towards Sag; another reason it would be difficult to detect.

But for fun, here's the Rogue Star simulator. The lowest mass you can input is .08 solar mass. I don't think Nibiru is said to be even this large. But a "very fast" flyby (given the alleged highly elliptical orbit)at 3AU, inclined 30deg, on winter solstice 2012, does very little, if anything, to the inner planets. So, even if some interloper came by in 2012, it doesn't appear much would happen here on Earth.
However, and on topic, this doesn't show what would happen to the asteroid belt.

[Swift]

Jay, the OP never suggested a Nibiru return in 2012, that was Starfury's construct. I'm unsure why you feel that became the "scope" of this thread. Again, I concur with the strawman "if it's meant to arrive in 2012..." but the fact remains Nibiru, according to the hypothesis' originator, isn't meant to arrive in 2012. Those who say so, just as with those pre '03, are spreading misinformation. I find it as easy, if not easier, to counter such claims by simply pointing this out.

A.DIM,

Please be careful. This thread is to discuss the "conspiracy theory / 2012" version of Nibiru. I do not want to confound that discussion with discussions about other hypothetical Oort Cloud bodies. If you wish to defend the 2012 Nibiru version in this thread, then do so, but you will be held to the appropriate rules. If you want a discussion of other Oort Cloud objects, start a new thread in ATM or Astronomy.

I made the determination as to the scope of this thread, which I thought I made clear in my post quoted above. The OP was vague about their intent. But since you are apparently still confused, I'll repeat it one last time.

If you want to talk about hypothetical Oort Cloud bodies that do not involve conspiracies (such as those involving 2012 and the conspiracy by "THEM" to cover up our impending doom) then it doesn't belong in the CT forum. Take it to astronomy or ATM, depending on how far off the mainstream you think the idea is.

There will be no third warning about this, next time it will be an infraction.

[A.DIM]

OK, I'm out.

[Van Rijn]

But for fun, here's the Rogue Star simulator. The lowest mass you can input is .08 solar mass. I don't think Nibiru is said to be even this large. But a "very fast" flyby (given the alleged highly elliptical orbit)at 3AU, inclined 30deg, on winter solstice 2012, does very little, if anything, to the inner planets. So, even if some interloper came by in 2012, it doesn't appear much would happen here on Earth.

Unfortunatly, in that simulation, it doesn't state (at least as far as I can find) exactly what velocity is intended by "very fast," but given that it is zipping by almost in a straight line, I think it is safe to say it is far above solar escape velocity (so no elliptical orbit). Actually, I suspect that "very slow" in that simulation is also not an elliptical orbit, but I'm not as sure about that.

Using your parameters, and despite the extremely limited resolution, there were obvious changes in the orbits of Mars and Earth. I think I saw changes in the orbits of Venus and Mercury as well, but again, the resolution is limited. When I checked the outer planets, they were an absolute mess.

I don't think that would go unnoticed, but it doesn't matter since a nearby rogue star moving into the inner solar system would have long since been visually obvious on Earth. At any rate, not a good simulator for Nibiru claims.

[NGCHunter]

Here's a simulation I put together using Gravity Simulator and plugging in the typical orbital parameters for Nibiru, and giving it the 90 degree inclination that some woo woos claim keeps it from affecting the planets in a noticeable manner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sJkG976gCM
I gave Nibiru a mass of about 20 Jupiters, about 5 short of a brown dwarf which is frequently accused of being. I gave it a close approach distance of about 3 AU or so. According to the orbital parameters for Nibiru, it should be no farther than about 10 AUs right now if it's going to reach perihelion by 2012. At 10 AUs in the simulation, Saturn (the yellow line) starts to seriously deviate from its normal orbit. Even much earlier than that if you watch the green line at the bottom you can see it "retracing," indicating that Uranus is getting pulled into a new orbit and is noticeably deviating. By the time Nibiru passes perihelion Uranus is in a completely different inclination, as seen at the end of the video at the top right. The final orbits of the outer planets, even Jupiter, are completely changed by the passage of Nibiru, which supposedly occurs every 3600 years. The simulation shows quite a few years in very little time, and the video is actually slowed down to 25% its normal speed, but clearly we would be seeing serious problems with the apparent location of Saturn by now if there were anything to fear.

[Drunk Vegan]

Jay, the OP never suggested a Nibiru return in 2012, that was Starfury's construct. I'm unsure why you feel that became the "scope" of this thread. Again, I concur with the strawman "if it's meant to arrive in 2012..." but the fact remains Nibiru, according to the hypothesis' originator, isn't meant to arrive in 2012. Those who say so, just as with those pre '03, are spreading misinformation. I find it as easy, if not easier, to counter such claims by simply pointing this out.

Regardless of the "arrival date," the fact remains that if there were such a wanderer which approached anywhere between 3 and 1 AU to the sun, and were large enough to cause devastation on Earth (anywhere from Mars-sized to Brown dwarf sized, depending on which Nibiru theory you're talking about) you would see evidence of severe eccentricities in the orbits of all the planets from Nibiru's previous visits.

However, in reality the orbits of the planets in the solar system are highly stable, with almost 0 eccentricity. This is a rarity for planets based on what we've seen in exoplanets, which tend towards high eccentricity.

So, no perturbations in the orbits of the known planets of the solar system... no Nibiru. Q.E.D.

[Swift]

Nice work NGCHunter

[Maha Vailo]

Yes, but what about the effects rogue-star-induced planetary perturbations would have on Earth life? The fact that we're still here would also prove the Nibiru proponents wrong.

- Maha Vailo

[mike3]

Fomalhaut b was discovered by largely the same method as Neptune was discovered in our solar system: by using observable gravitational perturbations in known objects to predict the presence of a nearby planetary mass, then to confirm that prediction visually. That method works fine on a Jupiter-sized planet 25 LYs away, and it works fine on a Neptune-sized planet a few AU away. It ought to work exceptionally well on an object now inside our solar system and larger than our largest planet.

And if you go with the "2012" theories it should be so close it'd be easily visible from Earth to the naked eye. It isn't. So that one's busted.

[mike3]

Yes, but what about the effects rogue-star-induced planetary perturbations would have on Earth life? The fact that we're still here would also prove the Nibiru proponents wrong.

Yes, that's a big problem. If there was any semblance of a solar system possible at all, Earth would be really, really hostile to life.

And this makes me think of one other point that the doom theorists ignore: if it happens every 3,600 years, that's an awful lot of "devastating" catastrophes to be striking the Earth. How would life have even gotten started, much less evolved to the point it's at now, under such hostility? Evolution takes *millions* of years, and if you have almost 280 global catastrophes per million years, that would seem to create a serious problem. After real catastrophes, like the one that killed off the dinosaurs and the earlier and worse one at the end of the Permian, it took *millions* of years of "peace time" for life to recover what was lost.

[slang]

[...] if it happens every 3,600 years, [...]

According to some people, that means it could have happened only once so far.

[Abaddon]

According to some people, that means it could have happened only once so far.

Well that just begs a question.

Are there any young earth proponents, who also espouse PX doom?

Personally haven't seen any such, but maybe they exist.