Originally Posted by

**Otherworldly**
The infinite monkeys theorem asserts that the probability goes to one. If all you want is non-zero probability, you only need one monkey.

Yes, but this assumes infinite trials, infinite time, and in the OP's idea, an infinite universe. Outside of mathematics, each has to be proven individually before you can apply "infinite monkeys" to reality.

I suspect the OP means besides earth-bound life.

I know he does. That wasn't my point. To assign a probability, there has to be randomness. We simply don't have enough data to understand the randomness. Oh, there appears to be a significant random component in our own species' lineage (mutation), but it's not fully random (natural selection).

Non-randomness means the probability is weighted based on criteria we don't yet understand. We simply can't make reasonable assumptions under those conditions.

Gomar, for example, believes that there is randomness in a "pick my card" scenario being offered by a stage magician. I assert with considerable confidence that there is no randomness whatsoever to be found in that event.

You can always make guesses, they just might not be very accurate.

Key word being "valid". I distinguish between reasoned speculation and fantasy guessing.

"Words that make questions may not be questions at all."

- Neil deGrasse Tyson, answering loaded question in ten words or less

at a 2010 talk MCed by Stephen Colbert.