What They Got Right and Wrong

[aastrotech]

This is for listing Sci Fi movie stuff they got right or wrong. Extra points for the older the movie, the accuracy of what they got right and the humor of what they got wrong. Notable dicotomies extra points. And make a case for why they got it right or wrong.

The first obvious one is the comunicator. They didn't get the usefulness right. Ours is a whole lot more useful and we got it much sooner than they did. But they did get the frequent loss of signal right.

Get the idea?

2001 they got the flat screen "note book" TV that the astronauts watched their interview on BBC right. They got the timing right too as a lot of people had one by 2001. The space station thay got right and in the sense of timing the one in the movie was under construction and our real one was under construction in 2001. But they got the cost of a phone call wrong. Heywood Floyd talked to his daughter for a couple of minutes and the call cost nearly ten bucks. Maybe it was because he used Bell.

TV in the bedroom. Star Trek got that right. I don't know about the rest of you but I have a computer by my bed. Star Trek got that right because their "TV" was apparently also a computer access point.

Notable dicotomy; Many movies had video phones. Now we can have them virtually for free with the web cam but we generally don't want them or if we have them we don't use them much. I think a polite protocol is developing for their use that may result in their being accepted and used more in the future. Also it's still a little awkward to connect having to log into a messenger service like yahoo to make a call.

[jokergirl]

Very few things got the internet right.

But if we can expand this to literature, I re-read Idoru every once in a while, and every time I recognize something that was science fiction/far in the future then and has become reality now. It's an eerie feeling.

;)

[Jim]

... Many movies had video phones. Now we can have them virtually for free with the web cam ...

Pshaw! Dick Tracy beat them all to it by decades.

[IsaacKuo]

The first obvious one is the comunicator.
Did they? I'm not familiar with pre-WWII movies. Did they anticipate the development of the walkie-talkie?

[SkepticJ]

But they got the cost of a phone call wrong. Heywood Floyd talked to his daughter for a couple of minutes and the call cost nearly ten bucks. Maybe it was because he used Bell.

Not $10, something like $1.20

That's pretty accurate, actually. Think of how much calls from commercial aircraft cost. Now consider the fact that he was on a space station in LEO. Like food in an amusement park, they'll ream as much money out of you as they can--because they can.

[stutefish]

Very few things got the internet right.

But if we can expand this to literature, I re-read Idoru every once in a while, and every time I recognize something that was science fiction/far in the future then and has become reality now. It's an eerie feeling.

;)
My friends and I call those things "Gibsons", and take turns naming new ones as a sort of party game, the way other people might play charades, or pictionary.

[SkepticJ]

As a 'Gibson', what about viral internet videos?

Common now, but in 2003, when Pattern Recognition was published, did they exist?

I don't remember hearing the term until '06.


A 'Stephenson' would be the Metaverse of Second Life, World of Warcraft etc.

[Romanus]

One I think about a lot is Back to the Future, Part II, probably because 2015 is a stone's-throw away. Okay, granted that I don't think it was ever intended to be any other than light-hearted exaggeration of the Golden Age conception of the future, but still--flying cars aside, there are no cell phones in that movie, let alone any concept of the WWW (though I will give them semi-credit for the "countless useless channels viewed at once" shtick). They also did hit on a growing '80s nostalgia, at least among my age group.

May think of some others later...

[Lianachan]

A couple of thoughts, more on concepts that were in sci-fi long before their actual invention, rather than specific predictions from individual films - robots, and cloning.

[jokergirl]

As a 'Gibson', what about viral internet videos?

Common now, but in 2003, when Pattern Recognition was published, did they exist?

I don't remember hearing the term until '06.


A 'Stephenson' would be the Metaverse of Second Life, World of Warcraft etc.

Pretty sure they did. He uses adspeak a lot in that, I don't actually think that book qualifies as science fiction at all.
The Metaverse is somewhat based on Gibson's matrix, but I agree that it resembles Second Life a lot more. I am actually looking forward to something like this popping up rather soon.

Blacknets, too, are anticipated in places like Walled City. Idoru have been existing for a while, Hatsune Miku being the one with the longest lifetime around here I think. (She might not qualify though, as she's technically a voice for a program that got a "persona" built around her.)

They had a hydroponic garden thingy above the dinner table in BTTF2. With the emphasis on "green" right now, I expect those to be ready for delivery no later than 2012. (You can build them already now, of course.)
How about the "pick your own landscape" windows? Horribly tacky, that's for sure, but it might be effective. Personally, I want self-shading windows like in Blade Runner to be available for the general public soon (the technology is already there but not affordable for anything but huge projects yet). I also own a shiny umbrella (http://www.thinkgeek.com/gadgets/travel-outdoors/9260/). Very useful in the Swedish winter.

;)

[swampyankee]

Something akin to the internet, crackers, internet worms, trojan horses, and viruses were all in John Brunner's Shockwave Rider.

[Dro2]

Slightly off topic but I think a thread like this 15+ years from now may be mentioning Minority Report on at least a couple things. Digital newspaper with live updates and Interactive screens which are all but in production at this point.

Im not sure but I think the blue tooth ear piece was in that movie well before they hit the streets.

[KaiYeves]

The famous 1950s "space" episodes of the Disneyland TV show correctly predicted that partly-reusable spaceplanes would take off near the equator, have parts fall away as they were used on ascent, and be useful in space station construction and taking very clear images of deep space from above the atmosphere. (Well, they do it with a telescope on the shuttle in the show, instead of helping an independent orbiting astronomy satellite, but it's the same concept.)

Also, amusingly, the launch facility depicted for this shuttle is a coral atoll that looks similar to the site of the SpaceX facility.

[Doodler]

Laser weapons. We do finally have them, though the effects aren't quite as science fiction predicted.

No clean burns, ruptures from water boiling under the surface makes for wet mushy mess.

[JonClarke]

Robots as generally envisaged,have not emerged yet. Those in Minority Report are perhaps the closest to reality. Same goes for any kind of intelligent computer.

Flying cars, personal helicopters, antgravity have not made it yet either.

[Lianachan]

Robots as generally envisaged,have not emerged yet.

Indeed, but robots at all have.

[jokergirl]

I thought of something. Fridges that can order groceries for you. The idea has been around at least since the 50es. They exist, but aren't generally very desired or accepted.

;)

[Krel]

Laser weapons. We do finally have them, though the effects aren't quite as science fiction predicted.

No clean burns, ruptures from water boiling under the surface makes for wet mushy mess.

Back in the 80s, Walter Williams wrote a "Hardwired" game for the Cyberpunk game. In it he talked about two types of laser weapons. One for armor piercing, which would burn a hole through a person, and a anti-personnel version that had the beam tuned to the frequency of water, so that it caused a steam explosion in a person's flesh. Very nasty.

David.

[SkepticJ]

Flying cars, personal helicopters, antgravity have not made it yet either.

There've been flying cars and personal helicopters since the '50s. They're neither practical nor cheap enough for the masses, so haven't caught on.

Antigravity, sadly, is probably impossible.

[aastrotech]

Wasn't it Andy Warhol who said "In the future everyone will be famous for 15 minutes."? Well youtube seems to be giving everybody their chance. I've had about 5 minutes of mine and my halloween costume this year was a real hit.

They got the number of electric outlets I need wrong. With the computers, monitors, digital camera recharger, scanner, speakers, TV, stereo, VCRs, DVD, airconditioner, cable box and lamps my outlets look like some kind of weired wired octopi.

They got stereo cassete players with two decks right as a lot of people need two to copy. But they got VCRs with one deck wrong because you need two to copy tapes.

Didn't someone once say that heaven would be a place where you get everything you ever lost back? With E bay I've gotten back some things and I've been able to get back in digital form a lot of my old porno that old girlfriends threw out. It's easier to hide now too.

[aastrotech]

Not $10, something like $1.20



Hmmm. Maybe I saw an altered version. I saw it recently and I took a note of the cost. It was something like $7.85. I know movies have been being altered lately. The cost of the corvette driven into the lake in "Billy Jack" was altered, Mcdonalds was altered in some versions of "The Fifth Element". For Star Wars bufs; Not including stuntmen and standins, How many people played Darth Vader/Anaken on screen including the voice? Star Wars bufs always miss this one. Remember we're talking altered.

[SkepticJ]

My DVD copy dates from '01, and the same call-price was on the VHS copy I rented back in the late '90s.

Where'd you see your version?

I'm wondering what pinhead was so starved for something to do that they pointlessly modified a classic film.

[Daffy]

Didn't someone once say that heaven would be a place where you get everything you ever lost back?

George Carlin.

[JonClarke]

There've been flying cars and personal helicopters since the '50s. They're neither practical nor cheap enough for the masses, so haven't caught on.

The "flying cars" were simply cars that could have wings attached. they flew, but no very well. They were expensive, impratical., took up a lot of room, still needed runways and were often dangerous.

We don't have the helicopter in everyone's garage, which was the dream of the personal heliopter

[JonClarke]

Indeed, but robots at all have.

We have machines we call robots, but they have about as much relation to the robots of most SF as does an automatic washing machine.

The number of realistic robots in SF movies is much, much smaller than unrealistic ones. The robots of most SF are pure fantasy on the level of FTL flight and time travel.

[Lianachan]

I wonder how much sci-fi has influenced invention. I'm pretty sure some sort of study must have been done on that.


We have machines we call robots, but they have about as much relation to the robots of most SF as does an automatic washing machine.

The number of realistic robots in SF movies is much, much smaller than unrealistic ones. The robots of most SF are pure fantasy on the level of FTL flight and time travel.

I'm sorry, did you miss the part where I said I was talking about concepts that were in sci-fi long before their actual invention? With that qualification, the first word being key, I stand by my suggestion.

[JonClarke]

I'm sorry, did you miss the part where I said I was talking about concepts that were in sci-fi long before their actual invention? With that qualification, the first word being key, I stand by my suggestion.

Since we don't have anything like the robots of 99% of SF in the posulated time frame, I stand by mine.

[jokergirl]

We have machines we call robots, but they have about as much relation to the robots of most SF as does an automatic washing machine.

The number of realistic robots in SF movies is much, much smaller than unrealistic ones. The robots of most SF are pure fantasy on the level of FTL flight and time travel.

I think what you both are talking about are androids, a subclass of robot.

Realistic (i.e. fit for the task, not for being similar to a human) robots exist in and out of scifi equivalently. A washing machine is also a robot, in that way.

;)

[HenrikOlsen]

So to conclude, robots belongs on the list of things they got wrong.

When sci fi tried to envision how dishes would be cleaned in the future, they envisioned a mechanical maid, often including a cute apron even though there was noting to hide, who would wash the dishes instead of the regular maid, rather than what we have now which is that maids are almost extinct and the dishes are washed by a box.

[Lianachan]

I think what you both are talking about are androids, a subclass of robot.

Realistic (i.e. fit for the task, not for being similar to a human) robots exist in and out of scifi equivalently. A washing machine is also a robot, in that way.

;)

No, if I'd been talking about androids then I would have used that word. I meant robots. You're right, unhumanlike robots do exist in and out of sci-fi. It's those I was talking about.

Edited clarification: Robots like JonClarke thinks I'm talking about don't exist, certainly, so he's right. But that's not the kind of things I'm talking about, and/or he seemingly ignored my use of the word "concept".

[swampyankee]

The "flying cars" were simply cars that could have wings attached. they flew, but no very well. They were expensive, impratical., took up a lot of room, still needed runways and were often dangerous.

We don't have the helicopter in everyone's garage, which was the dream of the personal heliopter


Check out Molt Taylor's Aerocar (http://www.airventuremuseum.org/collection/aircraft/Taylor%20Aerocar.asp). It isn't an unsafe aircraft; it passed all the relevant CAA* flightworthiness requirements, so it would actually fly quite well. Flying cars are actually highly non-trivial, mostly because people tend to drive into each other, so engineers have to worry about how cars behave in collisions. Collisions between aircraft are rare enough to get national news coverage, even when there are no fatalities.




-----------

* This was before it became the FAA.

[SkepticJ]

...rather than what we have now which is that maids are almost extinct and the dishes are washed by a box.

Maids are almost extinct?

Granted, they're not washing dishes by hand anymore, but they're still vacuuming etc. the homes of the affluent.

Real people washed their own dishes by hand. I'm just shy of 25, and I helped my mother do the dishes in a sink full of suds as a child.

[HenrikOlsen]

It's my impression that the level of affluence needed to have servants have risen too though, from upper middle to straight upper class.

[clint]

Star Trek got that right

Star Trek:
- clam-shell cell phones
- automatic sliding doors

[clint]

On the WRONG side:

My winner for the most un-imaginative computer interfaces in Sci-Fi would be Alien.
Did they really expect those black-and-green (what, 10-inch?) monitors to be around for that much longer?!

[Krel]

Star Trek:
- clam-shell cell phones


Not a cell phone, a walkie-talkie. Although that is kind of splitting hairs, as a cell phone is just a short range radio. But the Communicator really isn't made like a cell phone as it has a flip-up antenna, the resemblance isn't reallly that close.


Star Trek:
- automatic sliding doors

I'm pretty sure that they were in common use by time Star Trek came out.

Plus I think that if you really look you will find that a lot of things were out in movies and tv shows before ST. I can think of at least three movies from the 1930s that had video phones. The movie "Just Imagine" had wrist phones. The 50s tv show "Space Patrol" is know for having many of the things that ST had, as they were common sf trappings.

David.

[Selenite]

On the WRONG side:

My winner for the most un-imaginative computer interfaces in Sci-Fi would be Alien.
Did they really expect those black-and-green (what, 10-inch?) monitors to be around for that much longer?!

Not to mention that for space being a place where no one can hear you scream it sure was noisy. ;)

There have been a number of books that touched on the subject of space tourism. Heinlein's The Menace from Earth, Arthur C. Clarke's A Fall of Moondust. The movie The Fifth Element features an opulent space resort of sorts. Only the super-wealthy can afford a booking in orbit at this point, but the line has been crossed. The accommodations are still pretty rudimentary at this point though. More along the lines of adventure tourism with an astronomically stiff price tag.

[aastrotech]

On the WRONG side:

My winner for the most un-imaginative computer interfaces in Sci-Fi would be Alien.
Did they really expect those black-and-green (what, 10-inch?) monitors to be around for that much longer?!

Actualy you can install an emulator program that makes your monitor do that just as sort of a style thing. Then again someone I know with dyslexia says that it goes away when looking at text in blue letters on a black screen. Maybe the movie makers were aware of that. Maybe in the future that will become standard to help dyslexics.

[jokergirl]

To be honest, compared with most clunky viewer-but-not-user-friendly Scifi computer interfaces (think "UPLOADING..." in great blinking letters, plaintext password displays) I'd actually prefer just having a two-color console.
But then I'm a coder.

Laser/phaser weapons. They don't exist yet. Well, not in the way we thought.

;)

[aastrotech]

Laser/phaser weapons. They don't exist yet. Well, not in the way we thought.

;)

Some have suggested Star Wars blasters using paint ball guns firing explosive pellets. A pellet of high explosive the size of a paint ball would probably be a bit of overkill though. Probably be best to fire a small shaped charge. Light armor piercing too. Not much range for open country combat but probably devastating in urban and jungle close quarters combat. Be a good excuse to get rid of all that heavy and expensive kevlar too. It would be useless against that kind of blaster. Light weight, made of plastic, no kick, great multi shot targeting, virtually unlimited ammo, no muzzle flash, But you could always attach an led as a tracer, not much noise to give away your position. Can you imagine a robot armed with one of these? A rat sized robot could crawl up a drain pipe and lay waste to an entire platoon. For that matter a real rat with electronic implants could get the job done. Think of the applications. Assasination, political repression, crowd control. The phrase "EEK, I see a rat" would take on a whole new meaning. Though instead of jumping up on a chair we'd be ducking under them. Maybe I should change my name to Dr Evil. Not the same as sharks with lasers mounted on them but a lot more useful and do able.

[publiusr]

On the WRONG side:

My winner for the most un-imaginative computer interfaces in Sci-Fi would be Alien.
Did they really expect those black-and-green (what, 10-inch?) monitors to be around for that much longer?!

Well, if I were a stingy Weyland-Yutani Exec, I might only spring for low res tech so as to avoid the folks wasting time with the internet. They could only do work.

I actually like the Norad kind of tech. I just don't like touchscreens for anything not on a wall, or on a table. I think the system they have in Chicago's Office of Emergency Management and Communications (OEMC) is a little different from the multi touch:
http://www.emsresponder.com/publication/article.jsp?pubId=1&id=5337
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/68292.html?wlc=1259011078
http://www.is.northropgrumman.com/products/touchtable/assets/TouchTable.pdf
http://www.is.northropgrumman.com/products/touchtable/index.html
http://www.directionsmag.com/article.php?article_id=641

On the cheap http://johnnylee.net/projects/wii/

The future
http://www.is.northropgrumman.com/products/terraintable/assets/TerrainTable.pdf
http://obscuradigital.com/work/featured

http://www.timedomain.com/technology.php


The past

http://bifsniff.com/technology/steampunk-brazil-computer-i-want-one
http://steampunkworkshop.com/lcd.shtml
http://thehottestgadgets.com/2008/07/the-17-hottest-steampunk-computer-creations-001127

http://www.bing.com/search?q=nixietubes&src=IE-Address
http://boingboing.net/2009/07/22/local-man-rambles-ab.html
http://apem.com/military.html
http://www.ab.com/industrialcontrols/products/push_buttons/
http://www.spacemusic.netfirms.com/Vintage-Audio-RepairParts.html
http://electronic-components.globalspec.com/Industrial-Directory/momentary_pushbutton
http://oldcomputers.net/


More:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AKAT-1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analog_computer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_I_Fire_Control_Computer
http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=28286&page=7
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curta_calculator
http://www.vcalc.net/cu.htm
http://www.curta.org/ Weapon design that looks interesting: http://gizmodo.com/5408961/pistol+rifle-converter-lets-your-pistol-dream-rifle-dreams

Seeing this thing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SelectricII_Hadar.jpg --chatter the words ANDROMEDA STRAIN on paper built up more suspense than the simple flat screens (of the remake) blinking info in a quiet, unimportant way.

[aastrotech]

Deep Impact's black president.

[stutefish]

On the topic of robots...

HAL 9000 is an excellent example of exactly the kind "box-bot" that we see all over the place today. He's a central processing unit, with device drivers and interfaces that allow him to manage every part of Discovery. He has the bare minimum of human characteristics: natural language processing and voice I/O capability.

Aside from that and the AI bits (which, yes, they have got wrong so far), I oversee dozens of robots just like HAL. Only instead of operating spaceships, they manage payrolls for thousands of small businesses.

[jokergirl]

Yes, the trend is definitely towards centralised monitoring and control systems.
Makes sense of course. But I'd still rather have one chip that controls the engine in my car, and one that controls the leisure systems. Redundancy is a good thing sometimes. (Airplanes also have redundancy in that way, and sometimes the gearbox is controlled by a different chip than the engine. It also makes sense.) But if we're talking factories and plants, it makes sense not to have to go out to each machine in order to check on its status.

So, nothing to foresee, already happening.

;)

[KaiYeves]

My favorite Star Wars character has always been R2D2. The little robot who helps fix the spaceships and saves the day, never getting a medal, just acting out of the goodness of his circuits.

R2 units are described as astromech droids, and I always interpreted the name as astro= space mech=mechanic. Space mechanics, droids that help to build and fix spacecraft.

So, I've taken to calling Dextre an astromech, because really, that's what he does on the ISS. Even if he looks nothing like Artoo and doesn't have quite as much personality, the job is the same.

[Lianachan]

R2D2 is as entitled to a medal as a washing machine is. Chewbacca, now, he didn't get one. That's just speciesist!

[SolusLupus]

But droids in Star Wars were quite sentient, and capable of logical thought. Now you're being robotist.

[stutefish]

But droids in Star Wars were quite sentient, and capable of logical thought. Now you're being robotist.
Star Wars robots = People
Star Wars wookees = Really articulate dogs

[KaiYeves]

Chewbacca, now, he didn't get one. That's just speciesist!
Somebody wrote to the official newsletter asking about this in the early days. The official word from Lucas is that Leia wanted to give him one, but Wookiees don't approve of medals.

[traceur]

i'm not sure if it counts as a "prediction", but many of the alien technologies thought of in "earth: final conflict" seem to be coming out, including the rollable screens (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGhL34_32vY) used in the series as communicators for the alien's agents, and motion-gesture controls (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2qlHoxPioM) not as wisely (response time) used in the tv series to pilot the alien's shuttles and interface with the computers on the mothership, and the concept (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilATPZrX0dU) and use (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAMrtHC2Ev0) of organic construction which is just starting to gain momentum in RL but used by the aliens to grow tall buildings, though this might be said to be a prediction of a prediction...

[Glom]

RE Minority Report they predicted computer screens on what looks like laminate. That may be around the corner.

RE Star Trek and the mobile phone, there was a funny comment in sfdebris's review of 'QWho' (http://sfdebris.com/videos/t142.asp) about how ST nevertheless missed the development of the camera phone since communication was almost always exclusively audio forcing the away team to describe things that really should be shown to the persons concerned onboard the ship.

[traceur]

I just don't like touchscreens for anything not on a wall, or on a table.

i'm curious, do you think the lack of tactile feedback might be a big part of that? because that is on the way (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv-R1IzNYPc) on a multi-touch level...
another "intuitive dislike" towards screens everywhere is the mental need to fix for lost frames, but i think what the "100$ computer per child" project did by placing e-ink catching behind the screen is likely to get into other products.

that's being said, if you really are getting sick of every gadget looking like a different way to fold screen pieces together - i wouldn't worry...
i personally see this placing everything into a multitouch screen as a fad - probably the fad of the decade - but still a fad, something that will come and go and will probably be the part of the aesthetic theme by which "the 2010's" would be remembered by. the lasting affects? probably the synergy of media in general, and maybe LED tattoo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1VuN5Iouc)'s will catch on by the time kids born in the last 5 years or so will be teenagers...

what's after? prediction is for fools & venture capitalists ;)

[Daffy]

i'm not sure if it counts as a "prediction", but many of the alien technologies thought of in "earth: final conflict" seem to be coming out, including the rollable screens (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGhL34_32vY) used in the series as communicators for the alien's agents, and motion-gesture controls (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2qlHoxPioM) not as wisely (response time) used in the tv series to pilot the alien's shuttles and interface with the computers on the mothership, and the concept (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilATPZrX0dU) and use (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAMrtHC2Ev0) of organic construction which is just starting to gain momentum in RL but used by the aliens to grow tall buildings, though this might be said to be a prediction of a prediction...

Not sure about that...what about the "Tricorder?"

[Daffy]

RE Star Trek and the mobile phone, there was a funny comment in sfdebris's review of 'QWho' about how ST nevertheless missed the development of the camera phone since communication was almost always exclusively audio forcing the away team to describe things that really should be shown to the persons concerned onboard the ship.

Not sure about that...what about the "Tricorder?"

[Larry Jacks]

We don't have the helicopter in everyone's garage, which was the dream of the personal heliopter

At about $40K for the kit, the Helicycle (http://www.helicycle.com/) comes close. The Rotorway A600 Talon (http://www.rotorway.com/index.php) is closer to $100K, which is quite cheap for a 2-seat helicopter. CarterCopter (http://www.cartercopters.com/) is developing some very interesting technology, too.

[swampyankee]

We don't have the helicopter in everyone's garage, which was the dream of the personal heliopter

At about $40K for the kit, the Helicycle (http://www.helicycle.com/) comes close. The Rotorway A600 Talon (http://www.rotorway.com/index.php) is closer to $100K, which is quite cheap for a 2-seat helicopter. CarterCopter (http://www.cartercopters.com/) is developing some very interesting technology, too.

The biggest barrier to a helicopter|airplane in every garage is simply that people just haven't figured out how to avoid driving their cars into moving and fixed objects, and keep blaming the vehicle for the problem. I've seen far too many drivers (I get to drive on I-95) who operate their vehicles with the carefree abandon of the true sociopath; I would really worry about them in a crowded sky, especially as the debris from a mid-air has a somewhat higher chance of falling on my head.

[DonM435]

I know that sf stories about computers in the home go back pretty far (though I don't believe any writer predicted how small they would ultimately be.) But did anyone predict that a substantial proportion of computer time would be devoted to fighting off malevolent software, you know, the antivirus industry?

[SolusLupus]

That's a good question. I assume it has to go back pretty far, though; I can't see why "bad programming" would be so new.

[publiusr]

i'm curious, do you think the lack of tactile feedback might be a big part of that? because that is on the way (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv-R1IzNYPc) on a multi-touch level...

Ah yes, haptics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haptic_technology http://science.discovery.com/videos/popscis-future-of-haptics.html http://www.computer.org/portal/web/csdl/doi/10.1109/HAPTICS.2006.161 http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/gadgets/other-gadgets/haptic-technology.htm

To me there is more to haptics than just giving touch to a flat screen. I just like all the old switches and dials that make the tech seem more important. To me, this old thing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AKAT-1 looks so much better than an iphone. It just looks perfect for the old Orbit Jet. Now just to use its frame for newer tech.

Also more attention needs to be given to art in terms of information display--as Tufte suggests: http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/

Perhaps this is what "Data" meant about television not surviving long in the 21st Century:
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2009-11/preparing-death-meta-media-experience

Or maybe this is what he meant ;) http://englishrussia.com/?p=1400

I guess I just love the look of old tech: http://www.earlytelevision.org/mechanical_gallery.html

New goods
http://www.popsci.com/gear-amp-gadgets/gallery/2009-09/megagoods-2009

I wonder if the folks here find more than just notes http://foundmagazine.com/

I'd be happy with this
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2009-11/nasas-astronauts-want-next-gen-ride-10-times-safer-shuttle

[DonM435]

That's a good question. I assume it has to go back pretty far, though; I can't see why "bad programming" would be so new.

They did have evil computers now and again (Colossus: The Forbin Project is a 1970s film favorite of mine, and I'm sure there were earlier examples).

Howevfer, the idea that people would create things to practice minor malice, and just plain annoying stuff . . . did anybody think of that?

[Rue]

The medical tricorder in ST:TOS has that detachable piece that seems to have some sort of wireless connection to the main unit. That is not unlike a bluetooth device.

The two-way Seashell radios in Fahrenheit 451 are similar to bluetooth earpieces if not superior as they do not need cellphones to operate.

[JCoyote]

I would say in most incarnations of Trek they generally miss the interoperability we would expect from the technology they carry around. IE, tricorders, communicators, and other devices don't seem to work together as a group through wireless connections in most cases. Unless specifically set to stealthy modes for discrete operations, I would assume all those things would be in continuous contact with each other as well as the ship's systems through the communicator. Which should also mean, if my tricorder breaks but I have the scanner wand and my communicator working, I should still be able to scan something with it using the ship's computers, just with a higher latency results and maybe not a convenient visual interface for me to see on site.

And some things, like the screens in Alien, I have to lean on the cultural metaphor at the time the show/movie was produced. The goal wasn't to show what computers might be capable of in the future, the goal was to have the audience immediately recognize what they are seeing as a computer and to read information it displayed. Now with visual magic even in the 70's they might have been able to make something that resembles our computer interfaces of today, BUT... it would have taken audiences when it was made longer to realize what they were supposed to be seeing AND the interface would have distracted them from what was important: the data on the screen.

That's common with a lot of screens in movies and tv, they have a LOT less information on them than we would expect and it's for a reason, they are being used to tell us something specific and not cluttered with unnecessary bits. (That, and they often don't want to pay royalty fees for showing real interfaces.) But I don't take that as any more "unrealistic" than I do the dialog in tv/film... which tends to be much, much more direct and far less tangential than real world conversation.

[Glom]

That's common with a lot of screens in movies and tv, they have a LOT less information on them than we would expect and it's for a reason, they are being used to tell us something specific and not cluttered with unnecessary bits. (That, and they often don't want to pay royalty fees for showing real interfaces.) But I don't take that as any more "unrealistic" than I do the dialog in tv/film... which tends to be much, much more direct and far less tangential than real world conversation.

Hence big blinking "FTL failure" pop ups.

[traceur]

regarding minority report, i find it hilarious that it failed in making a credible prediction for the 2060's regarding computer interfaces precisely because it provided immediate inspiration for a whole trend of interface design that is becoming too common to be considered futuristic... more so considering the self-fulfilling prophecy theme to the plot. when i saw the old multitouch presentation in TED for the first time that was all i could think of while i laughed my way out of my chair.

but now people who will see it will think "meh a giant Iphone", and in a year or so kids who have played with NATAL won't even notice it, instead perhaps thinking why the movie didn't try to design any futuristic interface, probably some having the same reaction i had when i wondered why ST:NG computer interfaces look like my microwave controls, and by the time something new will come up (i'm thinking this (http://www.geek.com/articles/gadgets/personal-contact-lens-heads-up-display-designs-do-transparent-oled-one-better-20090514/)) it would be thought of the same way we think of the green computer interface in Alien.

[Glom]

regarding minority report, i find it hilarious that it failed in making a credible prediction for the 2060's regarding computer interfaces precisely because it provided immediate inspiration for a whole trend of interface design that is becoming too common to be considered futuristic... more so considering the self-fulfilling prophecy theme to the plot. when i saw the old multitouch presentation in TED for the first time that was all i could think of while i laughed my way out of my chair.

but now people who will see it will think "meh a giant Iphone", and in a year or so kids who have played with NATAL won't even notice it, instead perhaps thinking why the movie didn't try to design any futuristic interface, probably some having the same reaction i had when i wondered why ST:NG computer interfaces look like my microwave controls, and by the time something new will come up (i'm thinking this (http://www.geek.com/articles/gadgets/personal-contact-lens-heads-up-display-designs-do-transparent-oled-one-better-20090514/)) it would be thought of the same way we think of the green computer interface in Alien.

There's nothing worse than being screwed by your own brilliance.

I like your comment about NextGen computers. Roger Ebert remarked in his review of ST:N that the bridge of the Enterprise, while once looking futuristic now looks like a control center for security guards.

Seriously, the bridge of the Enterprise is one monitor resolution setting above the control room on the Magnus, a platform built in 1983 (although the current control system was installed in the mid 90s).

[IsaacKuo]

regarding minority report, i find it hilarious that it failed in making a credible prediction for the 2060's regarding computer interfaces precisely because it provided immediate inspiration for a whole trend of interface design that is becoming too common to be considered futuristic...
It's nowhere near 2060 yet. Don't be so sure it's not futuristic.

...by the time something new will come up (i'm thinking this (http://www.geek.com/articles/gadgets/personal-contact-lens-heads-up-display-designs-do-transparent-oled-one-better-20090514/)) it would be thought of the same way we think of the green computer interface in Alien.
You think that's new? Eye displays and/or display goggles/glasses are the "flying cars" of display technologies. We've been waiting...

I'm still waiting for the cell phone/mouse/computer. Instead of carrying around a bulky laptop, you just have a mouse-shaped computer which wirelessly communicates with any standard display and/or keyboard. The mouse-puter may also include a projector so all you need to do is point it at a wall to use it.

Instead, people apparently like browsing the internet on a puny screen with an awkward touch-sensitive interface.

Or maybe the technology is really that hard to miniaturize.

IMO, if your imagination can't dream beyond what's technologically possible within a decade or two, get your imagination checked.

[traceur]

It's nowhere near 2060 yet. Don't be so sure it's not futuristic.
i thought the ST:NJ<->microwave anecdote was pretty clear on preanswering this.


You think that's new?

thin & light? done.
transparent? done.
imbued eye tracking? done (http://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/future-tech/prototype-oled-glasses-unveiled-606003).
the software? 6th sense tech is prefect for it.
all that's left? reaching the required screen resolution for the near-eye image to be competitive with a distant image display (to the extent the human eye can notice) without loosing the above attributes, after which it only has left to pass the first-buyers market to cut down the price tag.

and we don't have the input device to make full use of it.

[IsaacKuo]

i thought the ST:NJ<->microwave anecdote was pretty clear on preanswering this.
Not to my satisfaction. One example does not prove a principle in general.

Anyway, it's not like the ST:TNG interfaces were designed to look futuristic. They were designed primarily to provide production flexibility while also keeping set budgets reasonable. The more typical interface with lots of buttons, blinking lights, and doo-dads is relatively expensive.

thin & light? done.
transparent? done.
imbued eye tracking? done (http://www.techradar.com/news/world-of-tech/future-tech/prototype-oled-glasses-unveiled-606003).
the software? 6th sense tech is prefect for it.
all that's left? reaching the required screen resolution for the near-eye image to be competitive with a distant image display (to the extent the human eye can notice) without loosing the above attributes, after which it only has left to pass the first-buyers market to cut down the price tag.

and we don't have the input device to make full use of it.
No, what's left is for the technology to be both affordable and accepted by the mass market.

Eye displays have been around for decades. IHADSS has been used in the field since the 1980's.

The technology exists, and has existed for a long time. That doesn't mean it's a viable mass market product.

[traceur]

Not to my satisfaction. One example does not prove a principle in general.

the principle i was referring too was that you don't expect technology in the future to look like current technology, and more so like past technology, especially not when that specific technology changes rapidly within the time of viewing. for UIs - whether its eye-tech or anything else - i do expect it to be something else then what it is now, the same as i do with cars - because there has a lot of progress lately with cars - i probably wouldn't 10 years ago, but i do now. on the other hand i wouldn't expect much advancement in let's say, dining furniture design, because there hasn't being much progress in that. it doesn't mean that there can't be, that trends don't shift - they do all the time & maybe in 10 years dining tables will be the new frontier of innovation - but we observe current velocities and form our expectations accordingly, and the one thing we don't expect them to do is to not move at all.

[IsaacKuo]

the principle i was referring too was that you don't expect technology in the future to look like current technology, and more so like past technology,
Well, I don't find your point clear.

Are you saying that Minority Report looks like current technology? It doesn't. We don't have floating holographic displays. We don't have gesture based user interfaces (btw, these have been available in the lab for decades also).

for UIs - whether its eye-tech or anything else - i do expect it to be something else then what it is now, the same as i do with cars - because there has a lot of progress lately with cars - i probably wouldn't 10 years ago, but i do now.
UIs have not evolved much, other than eye candy and gimmicks. The keyboard and mouse is simply a very efficient and convenient interface system.

And cars? What do you expect that's going to be so different about cars?

Are you expecting, say, electric cars to make a comeback? They've been around longer than gasoline cars. Or biodiesel? Back before diesel was refined from crude oil, it was all biodiesel.

[darkhunter]

Technology not keeping up:
- Atomic rockets
- Off world colonies
- Flying cars (although, given the way most people drive, this may be a good thing)

Overtaken by science:
- Venus as a jungle planet, full of life.
- (Current) Martian civilizations
- The fifth (terrestrial) planet destroyed shomehow, forming the asteroid belt
- Vulcan (the one in the solar system, not Spock's homeworld :))

Not sure where this goes, but: Efficient personal transportation leading to the end of cities

[jokergirl]

How about socially? Most scifi authors seemed to extrapolate from the society of the late 60es and 70es.

Today we seem to have a backlash in some areas (sexuality suddenly seems to have a lot more taboos again), but on the other hand a bit more gender equality than is given in most scifi "classics". We can't go into politics and religion here, but it also seems to have been neglected by most scifi people who suggested a globally unified humanity. Do you think that actually will ever happen, even if we are trading with alien races later on? Or will they have one contract with, say, Eurasia, and another with Oceania? And we will have to be careful to notice whether we trade with a bug-eyed alien of the purple faction or of the green faction?

;)

[Glom]

We can't go into politics and religion here, but it also seems to have been neglected by most scifi people who suggested a globally unified humanity. Do you think that actually will ever happen, even if we are trading with alien races later on? Or will they have one contract with, say, Eurasia, and another with Oceania? And we will have to be careful to notice whether we trade with a bug-eyed alien of the purple faction or of the green faction?

;)

Hopefully it isn't straying to far to say this.

It is common to make all planets a single political entity, but that's probably more laziness than anything else. It takes extra effort to conjure up a complex geopolitical scenario for every planet when most times just have a single planetary government will suit the story. There are of course notable exceptions.

The tendancy in the past to portray a unified Earth is partly due to the above, but also partly an idealism for world peace borne during the age of the cold war. What has changed is that we are coming to realise that world peace is not contingent upon a unified polity. Relatively speaking, peace in the world is at an all time high despite there being more individual nation states than ever. It is probably because peace is at a high that the number of nations is at a high. In the days of old, including the cold war, aligning with a military power seemed to be the key to success and survival. It must have seemed to people that rivalry between national powers was inevitable and eternal and so peace would only be met with the absence of rivals aka unification.

[traceur]

Well, I don't find your point clear.

Are you saying that Minority Report looks like current technology? It doesn't. We don't have floating holographic displays. We don't have gesture based user interfaces (btw, these have been available in the lab for decades also).

i'm saying that it seemed like a big leap forward when MP was released, today it will seem like a giant iphone, and when project natal comes out in a year or two then it wont seem like a leap forward at all.


And cars? What do you expect that's going to be so different about cars?

Are you expecting, say, electric cars to make a comeback? They've been around longer than gasoline cars. Or biodiesel? Back before diesel was refined from crude oil, it was all biodiesel.
the very fact that those options are being explored now - not only in concepts but in commercial successes - a lot more then in the past, means that whatever it will be, exactly like things are now seems an unlikely option.


How about socially? Most scifi authors seemed to extrapolate from the society of the late 60es and 70es.

Today we seem to have a backlash in some areas (sexuality suddenly seems to have a lot more taboos again), but on the other hand a bit more gender equality than is given in most scifi "classics". We can't go into politics and religion here, but it also seems to have been neglected by most scifi people who suggested a globally unified humanity. Do you think that actually will ever happen, even if we are trading with alien races later on? Or will they have one contract with, say, Eurasia, and another with Oceania? And we will have to be careful to notice whether we trade with a bug-eyed alien of the purple faction or of the green faction?

;)
why not one contract with virgin airlines and another with pharmaceuticals? ;)

for the most part i agree with glom but i think there's another motive:
sci-fi and space opera in particular have an thing for large scales.
often planets are nations, other times they are like local cities under a larger government, and at the extreme a planet has some specific specialization like "farming planet" or "factory planet" or "city planet"... more then it likes making things interesting, space opera likes making things big.

in reality we are seen the exact opposite IMO - globalization is allowing a larger diversity of non-state organizations forming more disunity within local cultures & communities that aren't getting any less divided, instead increase population allows them to be more divided. society is developing more dimensions to be fractioned through. this doesn't go against world peace, but it is going against world unity.

[Glom]

often planets are nations, other times they are like local cities under a larger government, and at the extreme a planet has some specific specialization like "farming planet" or "factory planet" or "city planet"... more then it likes making things interesting, space opera likes making things big.

That allows them to talk about how the farms of Aerilon are burning and the beaches of Canceron are burning and the harbours of Picon are burning and the courthouses of Libron are burning and the forests of Virgon are burning and the plains of Leonis are burning and the pastures of Tauron are burning and the oceans of Aquaria are burning and the cities of Caprica are burning and the jungles of Scorpia are burning.

[IsaacKuo]

i'm saying that it seemed like a big leap forward when MP was released, today it will seem like a giant iphone, and when project natal comes out in a year or two then it wont seem like a leap forward at all.
An iPhone's screen is too puny to do the sorts of things shown in Minority Report, even if it did float in the middle of the air with a holographic display.

You think project natal will "come out" in a year or two. Or maybe not. It's a lab project; there have been many other lab projects. Every once in a while something from a lab project is adapted into a viable commercial product. More often than not, it does not.

Like I said, you're assuming too much.

the very fact that those options are being explored now - not only in concepts but in commercial successes - a lot more then in the past, means that whatever it will be, exactly like things are now seems an unlikely option.
What makes you think that these options are being explored now a lot more than in the past? The big push started in the 1970's, due to the 1973 oil embargo. That was a huge wake up call which prompted massive government investment into alternative energy technologies. Among other things, you can thank the 1973 oil embargo for flex fuel capability and the widespread adoption of biofuels across the country (for better or worse, ethanol mixes are in wide mainstream use).

Anyway, you were saying that we shouldn't expect things in the future to be similar to things today or in the past. But if we go to biodiesel or electrics, we will indeed be going back to technologies which used to be prominent in the past.

[traceur]

An iPhone's screen is too puny to do the sorts of things shown in Minority Report, even if it did float in the middle of the air with a holographic display.

You think project natal will "come out" in a year or two. Or maybe not. It's a lab project; there have been many other lab projects. Every once in a while something from a lab project is adapted into a viable commercial product. More often than not, it does not.

Like I said, you're assuming too much.

perhaps, but i doubt it - the Zcam technology microsoft bought was working very well before project NATAL started, or before the IDF privatized it for that mater. i find the possibility of it being bought and then announced just to be thrown out of the window... well, ridicules. do you have any comparative examples of lab projects whose technology was fully functional prior to purchasing then getting invested marketing and then being thrown out?


What makes you think that these options are being explored now a lot more than in the past? The big push started in the 1970's, due to the 1973 oil embargo. That was a huge wake up call which prompted massive government investment into alternative energy technologies. Among other things, you can thank the 1973 oil embargo for flex fuel capability and the widespread adoption of biofuels across the country (for better or worse, ethanol mixes are in wide mainstream use).

Anyway, you were saying that we shouldn't expect things in the future to be similar to things today or in the past. But if we go to biodiesel or electrics, we will indeed be going back to technologies which used to be prominent in the past.
you mean where experimented with prominently in the past. or did drive a hybrid in the 70s while a battery exchange network (project better place) was getting finale full-coverage national construction licenses?

[IsaacKuo]

perhaps, but i doubt it - the Zcam technology microsoft bought was working very well before project NATAL started, or before the IDF privatized it for that mater. i find the possibility of it being bought and then announced just to be thrown out of the window... well, ridicules. do you have any comparative examples of lab projects whose technology was fully functional prior to purchasing then getting invested marketing and then being thrown out?
You haven't been paying much attention to Microsoft or any other tech company for very long, have you? Microsoft has a well worn history of failed products and products which Microsoft supported poorly and then dropped. Microsoft Bob is the most famous example; Windows CE is perhaps the most unfortunate example. (Had WinCE been supported well, it could have been the lean, mean OS suitable for low end computers that Win9x and WinNT+ never were. And Microsoft could have been ahead of iPhone and netbooks.)

The Tablet PC seems to be following in the footsteps of Windows CE. It was supposed to be the "next big thing", that would replace the traditional laptop and kill the palmtop. Instead, the traditional laptop remains popular, the decidedly non-Microsoft netbook has exploded onto the scene, and the palmtop format was revitalized by the iPhone. The Tablet PC didn't take over the way Microsoft had hoped, so it's likely to just sort of languish in second string support the way WinCE did...ultimately to get quietly dropped in the future.

you mean where experimented with prominently in the past. or did drive a hybrid in the 70s while a battery exchange network (project better place) was getting finale full-coverage national construction licenses?
I mean that if you go back a century, electric cars were more popular than gasoline cars.

[SkepticJ]

I rather think cars will continue to be fueled by hydrocarbons for quite a while, well after fossil fuels have run out.

We'll be making petrol-oil directly with genetically modified bacteria and algae. Sugar or sunlight straight into oil. Incidentally, these critters already exist.

Now, how the cars use the fuel will change. I imagine the cars of the future will have something like a Stirling engine that runs on diesel, kerosene, whatever, and generates electricity that powers drive-motors on each wheel.

Hydrogen gas is a pain; it leaks out of everything, given time. You can inefficiently store it chemically bonded to different things, but why bother when you can just fill up with user-friendly, liquid-at-room-temp, non-blow-up-in-your-face hydrocarbons?


Given how wildly computer interfaces have changed in the last forty-four years, I imagine Minority Report may be somewhat off in this regard.

By then, those who don't have qualms against it, may control computers directly with an implant in their head. A primitive version of this has happened in the lab already, with a quadriplegic man moving a computer cursor around and clicking on icons by thought alone.

[clint]

By then, those who don't have qualms against it, may control computers directly with an implant in their head. A primitive version of this has happened in the lab already, with a quadriplegic man moving a computer cursor around and clicking on icons by thought alone.

For such basic interactions, you don't even need implants.
Non-invasive brainwave interfaces (http://scienceblogs.com/neurophilosophy/2007/10/braincomputer_interface_for_co.php) can do that just fine.

[IsaacKuo]

I rather think cars will continue to be fueled by hydrocarbons for quite a while, well after fossil fuels have run out.

We'll be making petrol-oil directly with genetically modified bacteria and algae. Sugar or sunlight straight into oil. Incidentally, these critters already exist.
It's a promising approach, especially since harvesting biofuel from the ocean would not impact land agriculture for food. Of course, if we go back a century we see that the main source of fuel oil was biofuel harvested from the ocean. (Hint, we were indirectly harvesting krill.)

Given how wildly computer interfaces have changed in the last forty-four years, I imagine Minority Report may be somewhat off in this regard.
Computer interfaces have significantly changed only twice, and only one of those was a paradigm shift.

Computers started off with off-the-shelf teletype interfaces (the teletype predates commercially available computers).

The first major change was the shift to CRT based teletype interfaces. This wasn't a paradigm shift, but it sure saved a lot of paper.

The second major change was in 1984, when the Mac popularized the mouse and keyboard interface with windows, buttons, menus, cut-and-paste, and so on. This was indeed a paradigm shift, and every commercially successful computer interface since then has either used the Mac's paradigm or the even older teletype interface.

By then, those who don't have qualms against it, may control computers directly with an implant in their head. A primitive version of this has happened in the lab already, with a quadriplegic man moving a computer cursor around and clicking on icons by thought alone.
Possibly. It's also possible that the keyboard/mouse point-and-click windowed interface will still be the most popular method due to it's efficiency.

The big difference I see is augmentation with voice commands. This functionality has long been highly desired by gamers because you could do a lot of auxiliary actions without diverting fingers or attention from movement/shooting. But of course, it needs to be accurate enough and fast enough. I think it will be gradually perfected for gamers, and then generalized across consumer devices.

[Ilya]

They did have evil computers now and again (Colossus: The Forbin Project is a 1970s film favorite of mine, and I'm sure there were earlier examples).

And in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress", from Lunar Authority's viewpoint, Mike was evil :)


Howevfer, the idea that people would create things to practice minor malice, and just plain annoying stuff . . . did anybody think of that?
I am fairly certain Vernon Vinge ("True Names") was the first to think of hacking and malicious software in modern sense. Before 1981, nobody.

I think there were several reasons for these blinders. First, SF writers (American ones, anyway) tend to think of people, especially smart people, as rational, and writing a computer virus is a sophisticated yet irrational act. Virus writer gets no tangible benefit -- it is nothing but high-tech vandalism. Not something you often find in SF until it actually came to be. Vinge overdid user interface part (you don't NEED a fully immersive brain interface to hack a bank!), and also made Internet insufficiently distributed (too much data flows through one 2,000 ton satellite, for instance), but he got vandalism right, and hackers' being motivated by admiration of their peers rather than by money. But that was in 1981 when PC's with dial-up modems were already coming into fore. By then it did not take THAT much of imagination.

Second, minor malice (phishing, identity theft, etc) is closely related to "minor" uses of computers in general, such as doing your shopping and banking from home. And that's another thing about computers SF writers completely missed before it actually happened -- how much they would be used for trivial stuff. Most Golden Age SF envisioned computers as huge machines controlling important things, and while some writers did envision computers in homes, they could not think of any use for them other than (more or less) interactive encyclopedia. They never thought of using computers to commit minor malice for the same reasons they never thought of using them to commit minor benefice.

[traceur]

I rather think cars will continue to be fueled by hydrocarbons for quite a while, well after fossil fuels have run out.

We'll be making petrol-oil directly with genetically modified bacteria and algae. Sugar or sunlight straight into oil. Incidentally, these critters already exist.

Now, how the cars use the fuel will change. I imagine the cars of the future will have something like a Stirling engine that runs on diesel, kerosene, whatever, and generates electricity that powers drive-motors on each wheel.

Hydrogen gas is a pain; it leaks out of everything, given time. You can inefficiently store it chemically bonded to different things, but why bother when you can just fill up with user-friendly, liquid-at-room-temp, non-blow-up-in-your-face hydrocarbons?

well, here project betterplace has already got the construction license for a full national coverage of battery exchange stations.

and israel is meant to be just the first experiment, - there competent coverage range results directly from the payback of there current coverage and doubles every 3 years (battery size). in other words, it has both a (slow) exponential affect from the technology and an exponential coverage capacity - using the total of covered traffic islands as the return from which to build the infrastructure in the next island...
so even if the size US or china seems far right now, a slow starting double-exponential growth rate is still a double exponential growth rate.

[SkepticJ]

It's a promising approach, especially since harvesting biofuel from the ocean would not impact land agriculture for food. Of course, if we go back a century we see that the main source of fuel oil was biofuel harvested from the ocean. (Hint, we were indirectly harvesting krill.)

I don't think you'd want oil-producing algae in the ocean. They'd make the Exxon Valdez disaster look good.

I'm not talking about algae that is made into oil by human technology, I'm talking about genetically modified algae that poop oil out, while they're alive.

They'll need to be kept contained in aquaculture ponds etc.

[SkepticJ]

well, here project betterplace has already got the construction license for a full national coverage of battery exchange stations.

Batteries are even worse than hydrogen.

I think all-electric vehicles will eventually become very good, but it won't be with batteries. It'll be with ultracapacitors, CNT flywheels, or something like that. Batteries just don't have the energy density per kg to compare with hydrocarbons.

Cars now are very wasteful with their fuel. Something like 80-90% of the energy in the fuel is wasted as heat, instead of pushing the pistons. Reverse that situation by using a heat-engine that always runs at the same speed, directly off of temperature differentials. Stirling engines can be >90% efficient at converting heat to mechanical power. There'll be some loss in converting the mechanical to electrical, but even if that's 30%, that's still a huge improvement.

[JCoyote]

I don't think you'd want oil-producing algae in the ocean. They'd make the Exxon Valdez disaster look good.

I'm not talking about algae that is made into oil by human technology, I'm talking about genetically modified algae that poop oil out, while they're alive.

They'll need to be kept contained in aquaculture ponds etc.

Even that wouldn't be good enough. Production of scale would absolutely guarantee they WILL get into the wild eventually.

I think the best solution would be to engineer them to require something that is NOT found in natural bodies of water that we can control, and also to engineer them vulnerable to something we could use to control their spread anyway.

[traceur]

Batteries are even worse than hydrogen.
ok that's ridicules: i'm talking about what is happening and your talking about what would be better? since when does the world works like that?

batteries are going to be used because they got the capital, the political push and the business model. which technology gets used has nearly nothing to do with which technology is better, and the only world where that is the case makes the issue of traffic irrelevant because they grow ultrasonic Pegasus and there insurance covers unicorn accidents.

[SkepticJ]

ok that's ridicules: i'm talking about what is happening and your talking about what would be better? since when does the world works like that?

batteries are going to be used because they got the capital, the political push and the business model. which technology gets used has nearly nothing to do with which technology is better, and the only world where that is the case makes the issue of traffic irrelevant because they grow ultrasonic Pegasus and there insurance covers unicorn accidents.

Batteries are going to be used because they're good enough for some purposes.

An intra-city micro-car powered by lithium-ion batteries is viable and has a market.

People who actually want to take their vehicle long distances without having to stop every 200km to charge up won't put up with that when there's something better.

You're not going to be running semi-trucks on batteries, freight trains, commercial airliners etc., etc., etc.

[SkepticJ]

Even that wouldn't be good enough. Production of scale would absolutely guarantee they WILL get into the wild eventually.

I think the best solution would be to engineer them to require something that is NOT found in natural bodies of water that we can control, and also to engineer them vulnerable to something we could use to control their spread anyway.

Right.

The good news, though, is that even if some escaped into the wild, in time they'd be outcompeted by au naturel algae; because they'd not be putting their biochemical machinery into use producing an energy-dense chemical that doesn't aid their survival.

[traceur]

An intra-city micro-car powered by lithium-ion batteries is viable and has a market.

see it's intra-city for america's scale, but for us its the whole country - which is a traffic island - if your an israeli and your car is outside of israel then your car is stolen. next inline? Hawaii, a literal traffic island.
both Hawaii & israel supply the income that gets invested in the next traffic island's infrastructure (probably Sweden), whose potential size doubles every 3 years relatively to the infrastructure investment.

will it reach the size of american interstate? by linear logic says no, but consider its growth in coverage capacity relatively to its investment capacity combined with the investment capacities multiplier?

now you may say that americans who drive on the interstate aren't going to be willing to stop so many times along the road, but with the rising price of oil, for how long will that last? more americans are going to be choosing between stopping more times along the trip and being able to afford the trip.

for trucks i don't necessarily agree since in countries where the battery exchange infrastructure was built for cars the increase in battery capacity (without a deconstruction of infrastructure) will allow the energy requirements for trucks to be caught up with.

but yes: for flight and shipment batteries aren't likely to be the solution.

[Glom]

Why not put the algae into old reservoirs? They could be designed to only survive in the high salinity of reservoir aquifers. Of course, you'll need an energy input of some form. Probably the high temperatures aren't enough on their own. Maybe also inject some fissile slurry into a formation below a shale barrier and use it like the flame of a frying pan.

[HenrikOlsen]

both Hawaii & israel supply the income that gets invested in the next traffic island's infrastructure (probably Sweden), whose potential size doubles every 3 years relatively to the infrastructure investment.
Even if Sweden is a traffic isle, it's too large to be step three, try Denmark instead.

[traceur]

Even if Sweden is a traffic isle, it's too large to be step three, try Denmark instead.

its my understanding that if sweden is taken then it will be someone of a different case since it will be partially government funded (beyond tax breaks), so its not exactly a step in the process in the purest form.

[Romanus]

Something that occurred to me, a little humorous quasi-SF aside:

In Dean Koontz's Mr. Murder (1993), there's a scene describing a character using a laptop device to plot their position on a map relative to a target using a hacked satellite signal. It's described like it's some black-box, super-secret device; however much it would've seemed like that back in '93, it's hilarious in light of the fact that it's off-the-shelf technology now--and in fact, it was available for the right price even at the time of publication.

[HenrikOlsen]

No, what's left is for the technology to be both affordable and accepted by the mass market.

Eye displays have been around for decades. IHADSS has been used in the field since the 1980's.

The technology exists, and has existed for a long time. That doesn't mean it's a viable mass market product.
Does this (http://www.thinkgeek.com/computing/accessories/98d3/) count?

[IsaacKuo]

Does this (http://www.thinkgeek.com/computing/accessories/98d3/) count?
Unfortunately, no...not with a resolution of 320x240. That resolution might be good for running a Commodore 64 emulator, though.

[HenrikOlsen]

But, it many well be the mass market stepping stone to make it real.
Note that the resolution is likely dictated by the application rather than by the technology, it's intended to show the screen from an iPod.