Meteoroid modeling questions

[Techskeptic]

Hi folks,

I tried to search here and some other places but I am having trouble finding a concise outlet for this. I'm hoping you guys can elucidate or point me in the right direction.

Been reading Death From the Skies (of course), and got to wondering what it takes to model the path of a meteoroid and what the sources of error are.

Is there a list of these things. I know it must be more complex that simple newtonian physics (I hope) as there are other things besides mass and momentum that would guide the path. For example solar wind.

Is there a site that would let me see the physics involved with the modeling and what the sources of error with regard to being able to make statements like "1:1000000 chance of impact".

[StupendousMan]

I suggest you go to the NASA NEO (Near Earth Object)
web page and browse there.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

[ocpaul20]

Although it is said that there are quite a few that they only manage to find out about when they are quite close to us.

.....Something about the light from the sun not reflecting off the surface of some of the asteroids which are black or non-reflective and so it is nearly impossible to see it or track it.

I dont want to worry you, if you are the worrying sort, but I seem to remember reading that it would give us about 2 weeks or less before armageddon. :shifty:

[Techskeptic]

LOl, no I am not worried, I am just wondering about what goes into the models.