Is it possible to predict the end of mankind? (not 2012)

[Unregistered]

NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?

[01101001]

NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?

Sure. It's possible to predict when the world will end. But, it can be hard to be right about the prediction.

It's much easier to be right when one has good data and logic backing up the claim.

Of the near-term predictions I've seen made for when the world will end, inevitably the predictors have bad data, bad logic, and often both.

(Thank you for not talking about the year 2012 hogwash.)

[Neverfly]

Absolutely.
Pick your poison.
GRB? Supernova?
Major Impactor?

[Noclevername]

Grey goo? Bioweapon? Clanking replicators? Antimatter? Close pass by a rogue star? Galactic jet? Alien pest control, such as a relativistic weapon to eliminate the competition? Berserker swarm? Planet hatching? Sudden Existence Failure?

[Neverfly]

Sudden Existence Failure?

Oh, that one is one of my personal favorites.

[Ilya]

Wandering Damage. [points if you figure out what it means]

[LotusExcelle]

This is how the world will end: misadventure with a pie and copper lawn ornaments.

[Whirlpool]

WORLD ends with D.

[Neverfly]

Wandering Damage. [points if you figure out what it means]

I think my shins figured that one out years ago. Usually on the edges of beds.
The top of my cranium too- usually victim to cabinet door corners.

[Ilya]

I think my shins figured that one out years ago. Usually on the edges of beds.
The top of my cranium too- usually victim to cabinet door corners.

I have some Art Deco metal chairs with curved backs, and if wander into their corners... ouch!

[Neverfly]

I have some Art Deco metal chairs with curved backs, and if wander into their corners... ouch!

The funny thing is, after I posted that I went to the kitchen thinking daydreamy thoughts of breakfast... and discovered that I had jinxed myself.:neutral:

[ravens_cry]

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. I believe Yogi Berra said that.
Though as everyone else has pointed out, it is accurate predictions that are the real brain busters.
And isn't Wandering Damage some old Dungeons and Dragons table?

[Ilya]

And isn't Wandering Damage some old Dungeons and Dragons table?
No, it was a joke on a Dungeons and Dragons table. "Wandering monsters" were not a fixed part of a dungeon, but would randomly appear, usually generated by random rolls on a Wandering Monster Table. They were a way for the DM to weaken a too-strong party before it reached its main goal, or just to be sadistic. The joke was: since the only purpose of Wandering Monsters is to inflict damage on the party, the DM could save time by skipping the middleman and just rolling for Wandering Damage. Or, as a friend of mine liked to say, Wandering Case of Brain Death (she claimed to know a lot of people in real life to whom that happened).

[Disinfo Agent]

Dear Unregistered:

You'll like the thread The Carter Catastrophe (http://www.bautforum.com/general-science/34648-carter-catastrophe-statistical-doomsday-argument.html).

[KaiYeves]

Sure. It's possible to predict when the world will end. But, it can be hard to be right about the prediction.
Reminds me of that Shakespeare play where one guy says he can call spirits, and another guy goes "Anybody can. But will they come when you call?"

[megrfl]

NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?

The world ending? If we knew that a giant meteoroid was going to hit Earth and when, but would that mean the world would absolutely end? I don't know.

[ravens_cry]

No, it was a joke on a Dungeons and Dragons table. "Wandering monsters" were not a fixed part of a dungeon, but would randomly appear, usually generated by random rolls on a Wandering Monster Table. They were a way for the DM to weaken a too-strong party before it reached its main goal, or just to be sadistic. The joke was: since the only purpose of Wandering Monsters is to inflict damage on the party, the DM could save time by skipping the middleman and just rolling for Wandering Damage. Or, as a friend of mine liked to say, Wandering Case of Brain Death (she claimed to know a lot of people in real life to whom that happened).
I am glad it was a joke, because if my DM tried that on my I would personally leap across the table and rip out his throat with my teeth. Either that or send him a nasty sounding letter, I can't decide.:shifty:

[Ilya]

I am glad it was a joke, because if my DM tried that on my I would personally leap across the table and rip out his throat with my teeth. Either that or send him a nasty sounding letter, I can't decide.:shifty:
I suppose it depends on whether you are playing in person or over the Internet...

[SagoSans]

hi,


NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?

I'm new to this board, so i still haven't learned enough to reliably predict if/when a "Vacuum metastability event" will take place.

According to wikipedia, Coleman and de Luccia noted in "Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay". Physical Review D21: 3305.:



The possibility that we are living in a false vacuum has never been a cheering one to contemplate. Vacuum decay is the ultimate ecological catastrophe; in the new vacuum there are new constants of nature; after vacuum decay, not only is life as we know it impossible, so is chemistry as we know it. However, one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated.


wikipedia further tells:


If a bubble of lower energy vacuum were nucleated, it would approach at nearly the speed of light and destroy the Earth instantaneously, without any forewarning. Thus, this vacuum metastability event is a theoretical doomsday event.


I'm sure this qualifies for "end of the world" - enjoy! :lol:

[Bakihtar]

yes you can

i predict in roughly 5 billion years from now our sun will grow and then blink out

i also predict that in 5 billion years from now our sister galaxy Andromeda will hit the milky way and throw oour sun to the other side passing the center of the milky way



with the only thing left at the end of it all is a 2 headed man wondering around arguing with himself about what just happend

[ravens_cry]

yes you can

i predict in roughly 5 billion years from now our sun will grow and then blink out

i also predict that in 5 billion years from now our sister galaxy Andromeda will hit the milky way and throw oour sun to the other side passing the center of the milky way



with the only thing left at the end of it all is a 2 headed man wondering around arguing with himself about what just happend
That may not be the end of mankind, just the End of Earth. And anyway, unless mankind (or another intelligent life form) does something, life on Earth will be impossible in about 70 million years.

[Neverfly]

That may not be the end of mankind, just the End of Earth. And anyway, unless mankind (or another intelligent life form) does something, life on Earth will be impossible in about 70 million years.

Impossible from.... The Micro Black Holes?:confused:

[ravens_cry]

Impossible from.... The Micro Black Holes?:confused:
No, from the sun heating up as it ages. That's what I heard any way. Not the red dwarf stage, nowhere near it, but enough over time to evaporate the oceans and turn Earth into a Venus.

[Neverfly]

No, from the sun heating up as it ages. That's what I heard any way. Not the red dwarf stage, nowhere near it, but enough over time to evaporate the oceans and turn Earth into a Venus.

The sun will heat up and evaporate the Earths oceans in 70 million years?
Hmmm...
I never heard that one...:think:

[m1omg]

Sorry, at least 500 million years, not 70.
And we probably will adopt - the killer would not be the temperature but the depletion of CO2 due to it, which we are richly dispersing even now :D

Anyway, if humanity survives for 500 million years then it long wouldn't be humanity, but something more akin to gods.

[Disinfo Agent]

Welcome to the end of the world. (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/10/20/welcome-to-the-end-of-the-world/)

[Swift]

http://qntm.org/files/afd_board/0.png
A fine list of how to destroy the Earth (http://qntm.org/?destroy)

[Chip]

Is it possible to predict the end of mankind?;...NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?

"End of mankind" and end of "the world" can be two different things. Considering the end of the human race as we know it today and barring all the calamities that the planet itself could face as described in Phil Plait's new book, we know from studying life on Earth that the human species of today will one day become extinct.

This need not be a totally depressing prospect because it is possible that we might evolve into a distantly related life-form, if there was a reason for it, or if we ourselves manipulated our own DNA for whatever reasons. (i.e. Future human colonists living on Mars might eventually evolve very differently from Earthbound relatives.) One could arbitrarily set a broad average, based on our studies of life on earth and say that mankind, if overcoming possible outside threats and avoiding our own stupidity, might last within approximately 100 thousand more years before dying off and/or changing into a hybrid humanlike new species. That's only a guess based on how long we've been here since CroMagnon times, about 40 thousand years ago.

[filrabat]

The End of Everything (http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/25/the-end-of-everything/), by none other than Fraser himself.

End of Stars - 100 trillion years from now

The End of Regular Matter - 10^30 years

Some theories of physics predict that protons are unstable over long periods of time. They just can't last. Any matter that wasn't consumed by a black hole will start to decay. The protons will turn into radiation, leaving a fine mist of electrons, positrons, neutrinos and radiation to spread out into space.

Theorists anticipate that all protons in the Universe will decay over the course of 1030 years.

[Argos]

The End of Everything (http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/25/the-end-of-everything/), by none other than Fraser himself.

End of Stars - 100 trillion years from now

The End of Regular Matter - 10^30 years

Some theories of physics predict that protons are unstable over long periods of time. They just can't last. Any matter that wasn't consumed by a black hole will start to decay. The protons will turn into radiation, leaving a fine mist of electrons, positrons, neutrinos and radiation to spread out into space.

Theorists anticipate that all protons in the Universe will decay over the course of 1030 years.

Then the gods m1omg mentioned will say: Fiat Lux! ;)

[korjik]

I am sorry to inform everyone but:

http://qntm.org/?board

[astromark]

All Points Bullitan...
... Earth has been destroyed ! Bother. I was not ready for this....
At which point I observed the sky turning from a clear blue to black just as the earth beneath me seemed to just fold away.....
Quite alarming as a great deal of noise and then.....

... and then I just jumped into the next dimension and resumed normality in a parallel universe.

Can we predict the end of the world ? Given enough information YES.
As the excellent set of links has shown the list of global ending cataclysmic events is not small. Fortunately it could be argued that by the same set of rules that allowed life to start its tenuous journey here... the odds are staked against us, and for us... I am leaning to the later.
We can almost rule some of the event out. Not that they are impossible but, that the frequency of such events is at this time we can rule them out as realistic possibilities of the end of the world. At this juncture I now want to know if some of those world ending events suggested can be removed from the list of probable life ending events simply because we have no proof that such has or could ever happen. That would I think lessen the probability. Being imposable. At some point also we need to establish as to what is meant by 'end of world'... Do you mean life extinguishing gamma ray burst. Or planet destruction impactor. Reminding you at that we have reasonable evidence that the moon was the end result of a collision of major consaquence..., and here we are in spite of or because of... The resultant planet after coalescence might be a better place for the said life to re emerge yet again. It will be different. Different is good. Is life the normal end result of a in the temperate zone planet with the composition to bear life. Just because we have no evidence of life does not suggest to me it is not going to found abundantly across the galaxies... Its here. Then it must be there.
Yes we could face an extinction event by cosmic events... but it could be also why we are here.
I came into this discussion because I see a fear. Look at the number of nova events per Galaxy per year... Look at the local star group and detect the danger from Gama ray bursts?. Have we yet detected a large enough impacting meteor ? Have we knowledge of wondering stars that could disturb this calm ? Do we know of a wondering black hole? No, no, no, and no.... relax. The odds are stacked in our favour... until:)

[some dumb kid]

not really, i mean if you saw an asteroid hurtiling to earth you could "predict" the end of the world but theres still a chance that something could happen and that the asteriod would vear off corse so you more like predicting the possibility of the world ending because nothing is a sure fire thing

PS: noclevername arnt grey goo and clanking replicators the same thing?

[Pickled Tink]

The answer here is obvious. So much so that i am having trouble understanding how you could have missed it. Oh well.

The true answer is:

"Whenever <Insert whichever radical religious or political group with an extremist attitude you don't like> gets some serious funding. :shifty:

But no. I reckon we are well on our way to exterminating ourselves within a few centuries. The only thing we pursue with more enthusiasm than our own destruction is procreation, and by gum we have done a few things to bring the human race back within the range of self inflicted genocide.

As others have said, yes its very easy to make predictions, hard to be accurate. Given the number of factors involved one would either need to be prescient or merely lucky to get it right.

[dhd40]

The world will survive because of this fundamental equation:

P = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

Where:
P is the probability of survival
R* is the average marriage rate (focus on *!)
fp is the average number of babes(p=products)/couple
ne is the average number of children (e= enfants) visiting a university
fl is the actual fraction of the above that actually start learning
fi is the actual fraction of the above that start asking intelligent questions
fc is the actual fraction of the above that are familiar with calculus
L is the length of time they need to calculate P

After some elementary calculations this results in
P = 0.5 = yes or no

Sorry, Unregistered, I couldn´t resist. Vacation starts within a few hours. Hopefully, you will stay here with BAUT, post more questions, and get much better responses than this one

BTW, my result is at least as reliable as Drake´s result

[Gregg Evans]

The sun will heat up and evaporate the Earths oceans in 70 million years?
Hmmm...
I never heard that one...:think:


and if we could only shut up Hoagland, you wouldn't have heard it just now.

:lol:

[Horror Vacui]

Coinciding troughs of all the supercycles in human culture will cause the end of mankind.

[MattTheTubaGuy]

That list of ways to destroy earth is certainly quite interesting.
I wonder if it would be possible to change one of the universal constants, or if one could just spontaneously change? That could destroy earth, and everything else too!:)
does the end of mankind include self extermination/WW3? Because that will probably happen eventually, even though it won't destroy earth itself (at least I'd think it wouldn't):)

[paxton]

"This is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper" T.S. Eliot

I'd rather have the bang myself, but that's just hormones.

[Chuck]

Throughout its history, the earth usually had no people on it. so the likely cause of our extinction will be regression to the mean.

[nokton]

Sure. It's possible to predict when the world will end. But, it can be hard to be right about the prediction.

It's much easier to be right when one has good data and logic backing up the claim.

Of the near-term predictions I've seen made for when the world will end, inevitably the predictors have bad data, bad logic, and often both.

(Thank you for not talking about the year 2012 hogwash.)
Thats the problem with variables, they really do mess up preditions.
The super volcano underlying Yellowstone, a meteorite impact, a massive solar flare
that would destroy the power grids that support our lifestyle because the transformers
not time to react to the overload. 20 mins reaction time, 8 mins from the sun.
We not prepared for it, nor asteroid impact, just a bunch of dedicated amateurs
looking for rogues.
Tomorrow has been cancelled due to lack of interest.
Seems I am banned from posting a new thread, can't understand why, caused
no one any offence, and no intention to.
Or maybe my opinions not sit too well with the moderators here.
Care less, I do not suscribe to anything that denies an open mind, or creates
barriers to open discussion about anything the human mind can conceive of.
Nokton.

[slang]

Seems I am banned from posting a new thread, can't understand why, caused

If you were banned from opening an new thread you wouldn't be able to reply to this thread either. There are some known issues with one or two words that cause technical trouble when used in the title of a thread. So pick a different title, perhaps even a temporary one, post what you want, and ask the mods through the triangle icon to please change the title to what you wanted.

[nokton]

If you were banned from opening an new thread you wouldn't be able to reply to this thread either. There are some known issues with one or two words that cause technical trouble when used in the title of a thread. So pick a different title, perhaps even a temporary one, post what you want, and ask the mods through the triangle icon to please change the title to what you wanted.

Thankyou slang, much appreciate.
Nokton.

[Ben321]

I have no reason to doubt the 2012 date for bye bye earth. It is the most commonly accepted date. If I am to NOT believe it, I need some scientific proof that it will NOT happen then.

[Van Rijn]

I have no reason to doubt the 2012 date for bye bye earth.


Welcome to BAUT. You have no reason to doubt it? Why would you believe it?


It is the most commonly accepted date.


According to . . . ? I've been through a few "end of the world" dates.



If I am to NOT believe it, I need some scientific proof that it will NOT happen then.

Can you provide scientific proof there is NOT an invisible elf in my backyard? There isn't any more evidence that the world will end in 2012 than there is that an invisible elf is in my yard.

[Ben321]

Welcome to BAUT. You have no reason to doubt it? Why would you believe it?



According to . . . ? I've been through a few "end of the world" dates.



Can you provide scientific proof there is NOT an invisible elf in my backyard? There isn't any more evidence that the world will end in 2012 than there is that an invisible elf is in my yard.


The 2012 date was predicted by Nostradamus. Now I wouldn't believe just any old random guy, but on a History Channel documentary I heard that this guy had accurately predicted the 1st and 2nd World Wars, and even accurately predicted the 9/11 attacks. I believe likewise that the world will end in 2012.

[Halcyon Dayz]

I have no reason to doubt the 2012 date for bye bye earth. It is the most commonly accepted date. If I am to NOT believe it, I need some scientific proof that it will NOT happen then.

The most commonly accepted date for the destruction of Earth is ca AD 5,000,000,000.

Re: End of the World predictions: A Brief History of the Apocalypse (http://www.abhota.info/end1.htm).

Re: 2012: A list of threads and articles discussing 2012 compiled by member 01101001 (http://www.bautforum.com/members/01101001.html).


2003 no, 2012 si (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=03179)
2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=03181)
End of Mayan Calendar (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=04509)
Pole shift / Planetary alignment 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=07145)
2012 alignment question (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=09421)
about the Mayan 2012 item (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=10214)
2012 Debunking? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=10724)
Possible asteroid impact in 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=10924)
2012 asteroid? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=13592)
We don't have to worry about 2012! (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=16490)
More on 2012 from India Daily (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=16709)
2012 Completion of conspiracy? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=17667)
Here's what's REALLY going to happen in 2012... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=18322)
crop circles, Planet X and 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=18375)
Planet X, crop circles and 2012 cataclysma (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=18378)
According to the Mayans, what will happen on 23rd Dec. 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=18757)
More 2012 Nonsense (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=19201)
NEO 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=20191)
Dangerous NEO in 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=20539)
Christmas 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=23941)
2012 mayan calender end of world (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=30892)
Regarding the supposed polar shift/new ice age in 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=31452)
New 2012 threat? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=32413)
2012 look at this thing on the sun (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=35462)
Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=38978)
Pole shift idea origins (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=43775)
Dec 20 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=46117)
2012 Stuff (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=51021)
No reply previous question (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=52297)
Horizon Project-New End of World Scare? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=53788)
Date: December 21st 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=53831)
Earth passing thru Galactic center in 2012 - didn't that already happen? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=53904)
2012: What do you think well happen (if anything) (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=53924)
So what will we see in 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=54404)
Galactic Tsunami? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=54418)
Plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=55312)
Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=55386)
2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=56513)
Any truth to this? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=58039)
How can the sun be aligned with Galactic centre? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=63109)
the whole 2012 poles flip nonsense (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=63449)
Planet X Official Advertisement (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=65831)
What year are we in (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=66055)
Quick question about the sun (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=66221)
Galactic Alignment (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=66414)
Books of 2012! - (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=67663)
2007 = 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=67908)
Return of Planet X By Rand (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=67948)
Don Alejandro - Mayan Elder. (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=67954)
Toutatis 4179: 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=68472)
Galactic Alignment in 2012 ? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=68661)
Solar Storms (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=68907)
A real prediction! (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=69448)
NIBURU - Brown Dwarf, The DESTROYER (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=70163)
2012 Galactic Alignment (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=70260)
Not 2012 again! But I cant help it~ (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=70438)
New evidence for 2012 TEOTWAWKI!!! (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=70795)
this may be a silly question but... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=71061)
Just to know if this is true (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=71216)
Just Wondering... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=71633)
Planet X/Nibiru, is it real? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=72398)
Youv heard this a million times. (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=72777)
Nibaru or Planet X (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=73180)
Mayan calendar (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=73414)
2012 Article? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=73492)
can i say something please on planet x (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=73579)
Nibiru (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=73654)
The growing earth.... :P (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=74164)
Our Solar System's Eclipse of the Galactic Plane on Dec 21, 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=74615)
Something scaring the hell out of me.... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=74881)
It's Only the end of the World AGAIN!!! (Woo Woo Alert) (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=76346)
2021 Doomsday (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=77802)
is it just me or is the milky way brighter..? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=77955)
Polar Shift in 2012? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=78219)
I would like to ask about Nubiru stuff... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=78719)
Bit behind the times, my appologies... (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=78966)
the "pole shift thing" (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=79146)
All the Truth about 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=79425)
Confused about 2012 (yes, another one!) (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=79817)
Another paranoia mind due to 2012 (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=80144)
novelty theory (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=80949)
Possibility of Pole Shift (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=81227)
2012 Vectors (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=81304)
Nibiru Question (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=81363)
Odd things floating on google sky (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=82312)
2012 end of the world? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=86195)
2012 and Solar Storms? (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=87388)
Nibiru (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php?t=88006)

Universe Today: No Doomsday in 2012 (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/05/19/no-doomsday-in-2012/)
Bad Astronomy Blog: 2012, the year nothing will happen (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/05/19/2012-the-year-nothing-will-happen/)
Universe Today: 2012: No Planet X (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/05/25/2012-no-planet-x/)
Universe Today: 2012: Planet X is not Nibiru (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/19/2012-planet-x-is-not-nibiru/)
Universe Today: 2012: No Killer Solar Flare (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/21/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/)
Universe Today: 2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/10/03/2012-no-geomagnetic-reversal/)
Universe Today: 2012: No Comet (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/12/21/2012-no-comet/)
Universe Today: Another Voice Against 2012 Mania (http://www.universetoday.com/2009/02/15/another-voice-against-2012-mania/)

[Van Rijn]

The 2012 date was predicted by Nostradamus. Now I wouldn't believe just any old random guy, but on a History Channel documentary I heard that this guy had accurately predicted the 1st and 2nd World Wars, and even accurately predicted the 9/11 attacks. I believe likewise that the world will end in 2012.


Do you have references for these claimed accurate predictions? Do you have any references to Nostradamus making specific, clear statements about 2012?

I'm not asking for interpretations of vague statements or things claimed to be from Nostradamus but not. I'm looking for specific, clear, accurate predictions made by Nostradamus.

[SolusLupus]

It is possible to predict the end of mankind -- Yes.

Is it possible to accurately predict the end of mankind -- probably not.

[Ben321]

Do you have references for these claimed accurate predictions? Do you have any references to Nostradamus making specific, clear statements about 2012?

I'm not asking for interpretations of vague statements or things claimed to be from Nostradamus but not. I'm looking for specific, clear, accurate predictions made by Nostradamus.

My source was already stated. It was the History Channel.

[SolusLupus]

"The History Channel" doesn't cover much. They show quality programs, and they show not-so-quality programs. For instance, one of the shows dealing with the technology of Troy got the recipe for bronze entirely wrong, invalidating about 1/3rd of the show's explanations.

Regardless, there's a myriad of "sources" that are given air time on the History Channel. More detail as to specifics would be more helpful than to point at an entire channel.

[Van Rijn]

My source was already stated. It was the History Channel.

So, can you show, here, any specific, clear Nostradamus statements about 2012? Can you show clear, specific and accurate Nostradamus predictions about the other events you mentioned? Have you researched this yourself, or are you relying on a sensational TV show?

[Ben321]

So, can you show, here, any specific, clear Nostradamus statements about 2012? Can you show clear, specific and accurate Nostradamus predictions about the other events you mentioned? Have you researched this yourself, or are you relying on a sensational TV show?

Probably the latter, as it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

[SolusLupus]

Probably the latter, as it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

That's a dangerous way of living life. Any hack can make an "educational" show, and the History Channel has a history (heh) of putting on conspiracy gobbledygook and poorly-made "educational" shows.

It's like stating that anyone that wears glasses looks intelligent, so you always believe what they say.

[Gillianren]

Probably the latter, as it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

Oh, dear.

Seriously? There are certain shows on the History Channel that are reliable, intelligent, and well-researched. Then there is anything with the word "Nostradamus" in it.

[R.A.F.]

...it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

Ben, don't trust the History channel. Long ago the producers decided that "sensationalism" and the associated revenue were more important than actual, historical fact.

In my opinion this is proof positive of the damage the so called History channel is doing.

eta...ok, some of their shows are good, but I'm wary of what they present unless I can varify it through secondary sources. .

[Van Rijn]

Probably the latter, as it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

I too would recommend against that. I used to like the History channel, but not today. Especially in recent years, there have been too many cases where I watched a show, and if it was on a subject I was familiar with, found errors. There have been too many one sided shows on sensationalistic subjects. I don't trust them to present balanced, careful research.

Do a search on BAUT and you'll find a number of threads on bad science on the history channel.

Anyway, with regard to Nostradamus, if you're going to take it seriously, you really should research it yourself. In my research, I've seen a lot of wild interpretations of extremely unclear material, ridiculous leaps of logic and things that weren't actually by Nostradamus, but claimed to be. I see no reason to take this stuff seriously.

[Bloodtoes]

It helps too to be clear about what is meant by the term 'the world' -- society? humankind? life on Earth? the Earth itself? the Sun? matter? time? What qualifies these ideas, i.e. would a distant descendant of humankind who may be genetically different enough from current humans to be considered a new species count, or would humankind have effectively 'ended' by then?

It's really a ludicrous question to ask 'when will the world end?' Even a scientific prediction about when the Earth may become unsuitable for life is not a hard line and not, as the question often implies, a clear view of future events. An unpredictable cosmic catastrophe could alter that prediction in ways that may shift the deadline sooner or even further such as a chance encounter with an interloper through our solar system could nudge the orbit of earth nearer to or further from the Sun, changing that potential date for good or ill.

As for Nostradamus, well.. lol. No, he didn't predict any of our world wars, or any sort of end times. As far as I know all he did was write vague poetry in an obscure French dialect during the middle ages. Do not trust something presented on TV just because it is presented on a what is perceived as an educational channel. Even PBS can't be trusted (*cough*deepakchopra*cough*). The previous poster's comment is correct. If it is a subject which genuinely interests you, begin your own research and find out what the truth is. Apply the scientific method diligently and see what you find.

[forrest noble]

Bloodtoes,



Is it possible to predict the end of mankind?

"Is it possible to predict when the world will end?"

Great intro for a play on words.

The end of the world as we know it by the sun's incineration from expansion is supposed to be about 5 billion years away based upon the current predictions that I am aware of? A couple more billion years after that the Earth, if it still exists, will become a relatively cool, dense white dwarf star.

The end of mankind on the other hand could be much sooner if there is a natural or man-made disaster in the next few hundred/ thousand years. Otherwise the probability of space, lunar and Martian habitation by Earthlings will steadily increase until after a few thousand years it may be difficult to get rid of all of us buggers -- and extinction possibilities would rapidly decrease.

This would be a bad thing for our alien enemies, if we ever will have any.

[MAPNUT]

Back to the original question: "Is it possible to predict the end of mankind?" Absolutely. In fact it is inevitable that someone will do it, unless human nature changes drastically. Just think, there are thousands of mystics, shamans, astrologers, psychics and just plain crackpots out there making thousands of predictions every day. If mankind ever ends, one or several of them surely will have predicted it. It's not an easy thing to do, but it's almost a statistical certainty that someone will do it. :D

[KaiYeves]

From Henry VI, Act 3, Scene 1:


GLENDOWER
I can call spirits from the vasty deep.

HOTSPUR
Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?

You really have to hand it to a guy whose jokes are still funny after 400 years...