Is the Moon to blame for crime rise

[Sticks]

According to Sky News (http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1269091,00.html)



Sussex police have made a link between levels of violent crime and the lunar cycle after studying external factors in people's behaviour


:eh:

[NEOWatcher]

According to Sky News (http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1269091,00.html)
:eh:
Ok; we all know that the light levels have something to do with it...
But; why was that not mentioned?
Ok; I can forgive them for not knowing or not drawing a conclusion.
But; To include that last sentence is unforgivable.
One theory? FROM WHO :mad:

[Peter Wilson]

"Research carried out by us has shown a correlation between violent incidents and full moons," she said.

Thank god the moon isn't full all the time :whistle:

[Matherly]

100% of crime occurs within 2 weeks of a Full Moon.

Think about it.

[R.A.F.]

Ok; we all know that the light levels have something to do with it...
But; why was that not mentioned?

A mundane explanation would not make for an interesting article.


To include that last sentence is unforgivable.

Perhaps that article was written by Sky news' resident astrologer. :)

[Noclevername]

But; To include that last sentence is unforgivable.

By the same "reasoning", crimes should be greater at high tide.:lol:

[Tobin Dax]

"Full moons and paydays were identified as particular times when aggressive behaviour rose . . . ."

Getting paid leads to violent behavior, too, right? That's just as scientific an explanation as the one the article proposes.


100% of crime occurs within 2 weeks of a Full Moon.
Nope, only 95.6% of crime happens in the 28 days surrounding a full moon (assuming a uniform crime rate).

[tdvance]

"Full moons and paydays were identified as particular times when aggressive behaviour rose . . . ."

I can believe the "payday" one, indirectly, though. Payday is for some the day to buy a few cases of beer, get drunk, and get into trouble.

Now, rather than say that full moons cause crime, I would say, no, criminals cause crime!

Todd

[BioSci]

Analyses that are more complete show that the lunar correlations are simply loony! :lol:

http://skepdic.com/fullmoon.html

[tony873004]

The article says they only looked at 1 year's worth of crime data. More would have been better.

There probably was some truth to higher crime during full moons years ago before the widespread use of street lighting. Full Moons were the nights you could be outside and see where you were walking. And what might people be doing late night? Drinking of course. More drunk people on the streets = higher crime.

[Celestial Mechanic]

Actually, I'd rather blame it on the bossa nova! :D

[mr obvious]

From the article:

One theory is that as human beings are mostly made of water, the lunar gravity pulls them in the same way as it does the sea.

This makes sense now. Obviously, when more of the moon can be seen, the moon exerts more gravity compared to when less of the moon can be seen. This resolves the mystery of 'dark matter.' In order to eliminate this inconvenience to astrophysics I hereby propose we illuminate the rest of the universe to show the dark matter. This will increase gravity overall, and prevent the universal expansion from accelerating. [kidding]

[EvilEye]

Ask any police officer or EMT/Paramedic and the superstitious ones as well as the logical ones will say Yes... the Full moon brings higher crime and injury.

I was a police officer, but one of the logical ones, and here is what I've found.

(This is so simple it's almost stupid)

As the moon waxes and wanes, the rates of almost everything go up.

The peak would be the day before, the day of, and the day after a full moon, on clear nights.

On overcast full moon nights, you don't see it as heavily.

It is all light related.

When people can see at night, they are more likely to be active, and to do things they wouldn't normally do if they had a hard time seeing.

Sex, Crime, and Vandalism along with tons of other things happen when people can "see" in what they think is dark. And for the most part they are right.

If you are in your house even on the brightest full moon night, you have your lights on inside, which makes the contrast to the outside almost black even though the guy sneaking around your house can see perfectly well.

As police officers, we are taught when entering an area (like a house) that is lit, from a dark area (or vice/versa), to close ONE eye.

By closing one eye, and since both pupils act in unison, you make your eyes spend only one half the time to adjust to the new lighting situation.

Try this on a bright sunny day.

Cover one eye completely for about 5 minutes, and if you can blink one eye at a time, you will notice an extreme contrast change when switching to the eye that was covered. Go back and forth. The eye that was light-deprived will see grass as greener.

The full moon does have an effect, but it has nothing to do with gravity.

With ONE exception.....

Because we are made of water, women's menstrual cycles can indeed be affected by the moon. That is why they are called cycles.

But even then... the moon's gravity pulls on you less than the couch you are sitting on.

[George]

Actually, I'd rather blame it on the bossa nova! :D
:lol:
(Now was it the moon?)
No, no, the bossa nova
(Or the stars above?)
No, no, the bossa nova
(Now was it the tune?)
Yeah, yeah, the bossa nova
(The dance of love)

Perhaps music (http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002613188)is the answer to their problem afterall.

[Noclevername]

Because we are made of water, women's menstrual cycles can indeed be affected by the moon. That is why they are called cycles.

???

I thought they were called cycles because they, like, happened in cycles?

:think:

[peter eldergill]

100% of crime occurs within 2 weeks of a Full Moon.

Think about it.

On a related note, are you aware of the shocking statistic that 40% of all sick days occur on Mondays and Fridays????????

(extra question marks to make the statement seem more important)

(also, thanks to the comic Dilbert for that little gem)

Pete

[Matherly]

On a related note, are you aware of the shocking statistic that 40% of all sick days occur on Mondays and Fridays????????

Pointy-Haired Boss: What kind of an idiot do they take me for???
Dilbert: Well, not an Idiot Savant. They can do math.

:D

[Pinemarten]

As police officers, we are taught when entering an area (like a house) that is lit, from a dark area (or vice/versa), to close ONE eye.

By closing one eye, and since both pupils act in unison, you make your eyes spend only one half the time to adjust to the new lighting situation.

Try this on a bright sunny day.

Cover one eye completely for about 5 minutes, and if you can blink one eye at a time, you will notice an extreme contrast change when switching to the eye that was covered. Go back and forth. The eye that was light-deprived will see grass as greener.

I used to have fun with this one.

Driving down a popular country road with a car full of people at night. One mile straight, 90 degree corner, one mile straight.
I would close one eye for a while and just before I hit the corner I would open it.

At the same time I turned off the headlights.

I stayed on the road perfectly, even through the screaming.

[Gillianren]

???

I thought they were called cycles because they, like, happened in cycles?

:think:

Exactly right. The average menstrual cycle and the lunar month do not correspond. It is, however, true that women who spend a lot of time together eventually tend to synchronize cycles. (I could give you all the lecture they give the girls in fourth grade, but I like to hope you don't need it!)

[snarkophilus]

I remember doing a project in data mining once upon a time. We replicated results from some Australian crime agency that said that Wednesdays were far and away the biggest days for crime. There was no one factor that made it so, just lots of very little things (welfare cheque day contributed 0.001%, I think) that added up. It wasn't a statistical anomaly: no matter which subset of the data we chose, we ended up with roughly the same result. So it could be possible.

Anecdotally, when I worked at the public library, full moon nights were the nights when the weirdest stuff happened. One night, a flasher ran in and did his stuff. Another time, we found a huge stack of used needles. Another time, I got a date. All sorts of bizarre things.

That said, I doubt there's really anything to it. Events on full moon nights are just plain more memorable, because you have something to link those events.

[Noclevername]

Plus, of course, since everybody's heard of the Full Moon myths, it gives them an excuse to act more uninhibited when there is one. Power of suggestion.

[Jens]

As an incidental question, is there a connection between the menstrual cycle and the month? I mean, evolutionarily? Is it just a coincidence that it happens to be about the same period, or it there a reason? I've never looked into it, never having had that particular problem. What about other animals?

[Sticks]

Another time, I got a date. All sorts of bizarre things.

You are in danger of perpetuating another geek related myth, re lack of a social life. That's my job :shifty:

[Tobin Dax]

As an incidental question, is there a connection between the menstrual cycle and the month? I mean, evolutionarily? Is it just a coincidence that it happens to be about the same period, or it there a reason? I've never looked into it, never having had that particular problem. What about other animals?

I would guess that it's coincidence and more an issue of timing, by which I mean how long it takes for the steps of the cycle to happen (the egg leave the ovary, travel to the uterus, get a chance to develop before the body starts to expel it, etc.). My biology is a bit rusty, especially in this area, but it seems reasonable. [A quick glance at wikipedia suggests that I'm on the right track. I was hoping to find that other animals' menstrual cycles had different lengths, but that doesn't appear to be the case.]

The other thing is that the numbers are close, but they don't quite match. This is just like the "once-per-month paycheck" argument I want to make, saying that full moons and paychecks roughly coincide. They don't exactly coincide, and the cycles drift, ruining any possible correlation.

[Jens]

This is just like the "once-per-month paycheck" argument I want to make, saying that full moons and paychecks roughly coincide. They don't exactly coincide, and the cycles drift, ruining any possible correlation.

I hope I'm not saying something silly, but I do believe that they do coincide. I'm almost certain that the month is based on the moon, but there has always been a problem with lunar and annual cycles. If the moon was well behaved and went around the sun exactly 12 times in a year, we'd have it made, but unfortunately it doesn't behave. So artificially stretching the month to 30 or 31 days allows you to fit 12 months nicely into a year. So yes, the months are no longer following the lunar cycles at all, but I do believe that originally, they did just that. So the payday is correlated with the lunar cycles, just not very well. Or that's the way I've always understood the history of the calendar.

[astromark]

Pushing ones tongue into check.... What Utter rubbish is this?
Apart from the obvious connection with pay day excessive drinking and crime. The likely hood of criminal activity in the light of the moon is obvious enough.:(
I would like to remind you.. ( No. most of you now this.) I just want those thick headed individuals to understand that the moon crosses your sky every day. Its just not always at opposition and is there for not always seen. Did that need to be said? No. I hope not.:)

[Maksutov]

I'm reminded of a Southern police department head back in the early 1960s who said that the force had to be on the ready around the full Moon since that's when the "nigra" tended to be be most active.

About the only thing the Moon has really contributed to psychologically is lunacy.

[Sticks]

How the BBC is reporting what Sussex police are doing (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/kent/6723911.stm)

[Gillianren]

[A quick glance at wikipedia suggests that I'm on the right track. I was hoping to find that other animals' menstrual cycles had different lengths, but that doesn't appear to be the case.]

Most other animals don't have true menstrual cycles. They may go into heat--though how often varies a great deal based on species, of course!--but anyone who's had a female, unfixed cat can attest that human females have to deal with some issues that feline females don't.

[EvilEye]

Felines ovulate during the act. The male feline has a barb on his penis that stimulates ovulation. Being in "heat" for a female cat is something else altogether.

[Peter Wilson]

The average menstrual cycle and the lunar month do not correspond. It is, however, true that women who spend a lot of time together eventually tend to synchronize cycles.
I always wondered, though, is the first part due to lack of awareness? I mean, if we did a random survey in the mall of menstrual-aged females today, how many would know what phase it is in right now? But back-in-the-day when people spent their evenings around firepits instead of boob-tubes, surely they were much more cognizent of the sky? Surely close to 100% of cavewomen would have been able to tell you its in its last quarter.

So back in the stoneage when people were atuned to the lunar cycle, might the women's menstrual cycles been synchronized?


(I could give you all the lecture they give the girls in fourth grade, but I like to hope you don't need it!) If you could give us a sort of Mark Twain-flavored version, I'm sure we'd all appreciate it, though :)

[Gillianren]

While it is certainly true that a lot of women aren't in touch with the phases of the Moon, most of my friends very much are. (No, they're not astronomers; they're Pagan.) First, and the most obvious clue that women aren't aligned with the Moon, is the fact that there's a difference in length of various women's cycles of as much as five days. The word "average" appears in that description for a reason.

In fact, when I was in fourth grade and we got the Lecture, they also gave us these little pink booklets of information, and they included a calendar with no month names (because they couldn't know in which month we'd start!) on which to chart our cycles. Part of that has to do with the fact that girls in the first few years of their cycles are often really erratic, just as women at the end are, and part of it is to establish what your cycle is. If it aligned with the Moon, they wouldn't bother with that latter.

[Tobin Dax]

I hope I'm not saying something silly, but I do believe that they do coincide. I'm almost certain that the month is based on the moon, but there has always been a problem with lunar and annual cycles. If the moon was well behaved and went around the sun exactly 12 times in a year, we'd have it made, but unfortunately it doesn't behave. So artificially stretching the month to 30 or 31 days allows you to fit 12 months nicely into a year. So yes, the months are no longer following the lunar cycles at all, but I do believe that originally, they did just that. So the payday is correlated with the lunar cycles, just not very well. Or that's the way I've always understood the history of the calendar.
And that's my point. That half-day (at least) between length of the lunar cycle and the length of a pay period adds up, and they *don't* coincide all the time. This article is about now, and mentions both full moons and paychecks. Believe me, I wish that they did in the case of this stupid article.

[EvilEye]

I suspect that if you removed the moon (and nothing else was screwed up).... Paychecks would remain the same and menstruation would go cattywampus.

[Gillianren]

I agree with the first half.

[Noclevername]

Part of that has to do with the fact that girls in the first few years of their cycles are often really erratic, just as women at the end are, and part of it is to establish what your cycle is.

Most of the women I know are really erratic. I'm sure their cycles are too.

*runs away fast*

[Gillianren]

Hormones, you know.

But seriously--I've said it before, and I'll say it again. It has been my experience that most men cannot tell when a woman (with whom he doesn't live or have other, um, intimate contact) is experiencing PMS or on her period. It is also my experience that a lot of guys think they can.

[torque of the town]

Sussex police have made a link between levels of violent crime and the lunar cycle after studying external factors in people's behaviour.




When questioned about this statement the head of Sussex police
Chief Constable Jekyll said "I stand by every word".

[Sticks]

From the Independant on line we bring you

50 things you never knew about the full moon (http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article2621821.ece)

Any obvious Howlers (if you pardon the expression :whistle: )

[NEOWatcher]

From the Independant on line we bring you

50 things you never knew about the full moon (http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article2621821.ece)

...But were afraid to ask (especially after hearing the answers)
Besides the obvious werewolf, wicca, paranormal, superstition and other references; there were some that were either worded funny, or lacked something for instance:
6 The full moon occurs every 29.5 days - the duration of one complete lunar cycle.
Other than the numeric assignment its kind of a "yep; duh"
26 The full moon may appear round, but is actually shaped like an egg with the pointed end facing earth.
An egg does look round if you look at the pointed end.
31 The RAF used the moon to launch its first successful attack on a German city when planes attacked Lubeck in 1942.
Maybe the light of the moon, not the moon itself.
39 The full moon is said to be at perigee when it is full at the same moment its orbit brings it closest to the earth. However, the moon appears imperceptibly brighter at this time.
The point being?
41 The full moon is at its highest altitude from the Earth during the winter seaaon.
Whose winter? (ok; it's UK)
Anyway, does this mean the moon's orbit is larger when the Earth is closer to the sun during northern winter, or is this complete bunk because the eccentricity can cancel this out?
Or; do I just not know the definition of the word "seaaon"?

[badchap]

I've also been a police officer - for just a few years - as well as a nurse (did my training in mental health).
I always looked for a correlation between full moon and behaviour, but alas, could never see any.

These days I work in emergency services communications (for police) and I often hear a co worker comment during a busy shift, that it 'must be a full moon'. Every once in a while, like once a lunar month, they are right, which reinforces their perception that lunar phases have some sort of influence on human behaviour.
Most of these people have no other interest in astronomy, or lunar phases at any other time, and rarely if ever, even look up at the sky.

The police member from that article said he thought there was a trend with the previous year's full moons and crime. He did not elaborate what he deems a 'trend'.. but there were probably at least 6 full moons that fell around weekends last year.

Our busiest, craziest times, IME, are weekends, public holidays, school holiday time, special events, hot weather.. that sort of thing.

At this stage, I remain unconvinced.

[EvilEye]

I've also been a police officer - for just a few years - as well as a nurse (did my training in mental health).
I always looked for a correlation between full moon and behaviour, but alas, could never see any.

These days I work in emergency services communications (for police) and I often hear a co worker comment during a busy shift, that it 'must be a full moon'. Every once in a while, like once a lunar month, they are right, which reinforces their perception that lunar phases have some sort of influence on human behaviour.
Most of these people have no other interest in astronomy, or lunar phases at any other time, and rarely if ever, even look up at the sky.

The police member from that article said he thought there was a trend with the previous year's full moons and crime. He did not elaborate what he deems a 'trend'.. but there were probably at least 6 full moons that fell around weekends last year.

Our busiest, craziest times, IME, are weekends, public holidays, school holiday time, special events, hot weather.. that sort of thing.

At this stage, I remain unconvinced.


Something I left out of my previous post was the fact that we tend to only pay attention to arrests when talking about the "crime rate".

More people get caught during a full moon for the same reason they were out there. It's easier to see them.

[Gillianren]

Something I left out of my previous post was the fact that we tend to only pay attention to arrests when talking about the "crime rate".

More people get caught during a full moon for the same reason they were out there. It's easier to see them.

Depends on where you are, really. In my apartment complex, for example, it is no easier to see at night during the full Moon than not; the lights around the complex are brighter than the difference between no Moon and full Moon, even assuming there isn't too much cloud cover to see it in the first place.

[EvilEye]

I think I mentioned cloud cover in another post. ...

What I failed to ask was why werewolves don't change when the full moon is overhead in broad daylight. :lol:

[Gillianren]

I think I mentioned cloud cover in another post. ...

Around here, cloud cover bears repeating. There's just so much of it. Yet another reason a telescope on Mount Rainier is a really bad idea!

[NEOWatcher]

...
41 The full moon is at its highest altitude from the Earth during the winter seaaon.
...Anyway, does this mean the moon's orbit is larger when the Earth is closer to the sun during northern winter, or is this complete bunk because the eccentricity can cancel this out?...
Ok; I understand this question was kind of buried in a large post so it got lost.
Or maybe people thinking it was rhetorical...Any answers?

[Celestial Mechanic]

I think I mentioned cloud cover in another post. ...

What I failed to ask was why werewolves don't change when the full moon is overhead in broad daylight. :lol:
The full moon is never "overhead in broad daylight". It is highest in altitude near local midnight.

Waxing crescents, first quarter, and waxing gibbous moons are visible in the afternoons before sunset.

Waning gibbous, last quarter, and waning crescents are visible in the mornings after sunrise.

[EvilEye]

uhhh... It was joke.

The moon is always there whether we can see it lit up or not. Being lit doesn't affect its presence.